Bad Hair Day Alert Tonight/Tomm.

As a very strong system moves from St Louis to Central Michigan at a fast pace areas of gradient winds will occur.


As far as how much instability and mixing can occur will depend on whether we are dealing with a 25 to 35mph sustained wind with 40 to 49mph gusts. Or whether we are dealing with 40 to 45mph sustained wind with gusts in excess of 58MPH+. With wind gusts at least 45MPH the impact for recovery of the ICE Storm in West KY is huge. Also weaker trees in Mid TN esp the Plateau will be at risk of getting blown down. Also mobile homes may be unsafe during this event and might get tipped over.


The wind will start to increase tonight esp. after midnight. The most intense gusts will be in West KY will be anywhere from a 1AM Wed Morning to 6PM Wednesday Evening time frame. Power Outages are possible across parts of the area of West KY and Mid TN but esp in West KY where there are weak limbs all over the place. There is a higher chance of the wind to blow down trees and limbs down on powerlines.


Also a squall line could form and produce enhanced corridors of Thunderstorm Wind Damage in excess of 70MPH. There is a chance that the line may struggle to get enough moisture and instability to become a widespread derecho. Also there is a chance that the line can line up with the intense pressure falls and weak tongue of 300 to 700 CAPE values and produce widespread wind damage across all of West KY and Mid TN Tomorrow Morning and Afternoon. It will all depend on moisture return, instability, and can the line of storms line up with the best dynamics.


Severe Weather Time Frames
West KY- 5AM to 1PM
West Mid TN- (I-65 and West of I-65) 9AM to 2PM
East Mid TN- (East of I-65) Noon to 5PM