Winter Storm Likely Mon Night/Wed Morning

Error: Should have a confidence level of 1 for Day 4.

The confidence levels so far are kinda low because we are waiting on the 12Z runs. Still despite the 00Z runs coming together you still have the past models in so much chaos. If the 12Z runs are more favorable for winter weather will go up to confidence level of 3.

Pretty much the pieces are set for a pretty nasty winter storm across West KY and North Middle TN. In West KY the uncertainty is precip types. For Henderson, Union, Daviess, Webster, and Mclean I think mostly snow and sleet will occur mixing at first with freezing rain. If the event stays most snow or snow or sleet than 6 to 10 inches of white stuff cannot be ruled out this area. There is a lot gulf moisture for all the waves that will move along a stalled front that is placed in South TN/ North Alabama area. The Arctic air is also quite shallow and with warm air moving on top of it most of West KY might have a good sleet/freezing rain event.

Right now the worst icing appears to be from Paduach to Central City KY line south with a sleet/freezing rain and even at times mixing with plain rain.

With more snow and sleet in Henderson, Union, Webster, Daviess, and Mclean county. In which the most sleet and snow accumulations should occur.

In the small area in between some good sleet/snow/ and even glaze should occur. This area from about Smithland, Marion, Princeton, Providence KY looks to get the chance of both good snow/sleet accumulations and ice accumulations.

Later a call map will be made with more detail. There is a Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of West KY. Which means that a pretty potent winter storm is possible, so be getting prepared for sig. snow, sleet, and ice accumulations. Even a small shift effects precipation types and precipation amounts greatly