Starting Tommorow!! The West KY Lakes Forecast

A new idea for lakes season starting for tomorrow's lake's forecast. I will use the confidence level forecast that I use for winter wx, severe wx, flash flooding, etc. Except it will be used for how confident I am for a great lake day. This will be used for all of West KY. Including the popular Land in Between the Lakes area. Also could be used for surrounding smaller ponds or lakes around West KY. River conditions for events on the river will also be used. I will post an experimental one for how it would work for today.

What Makes a Great Lake Day
- Sunny and clear days. Many late spring and summer days have at least a 20% of summer time heat of time isolated showers. Usually unless there is a organized low it isn't an all day event. Of course on days were are washouts expected are you 1 or 2 days.
- Lack of severe thunderstorms- This goes along with the first one. Since KY severe wx season is Apr-Jun and May and June are prime lake months this can be an important one. SPC outlooks assign risks Slight, Moderate, and High for potential for severe weather. Any time a Moderate or High Risk is assigned expect a lake day rating no higher than 3 for a Moderate and 2 for a High. As damaging winds especially can become big time Lake hazards. Also Tornadoes and Hail if it is forecasted can mess up great lake day.
- Lack of High and Gusty Wind (non thunderstorm) High Wind days can be bad news for the lake days. These days can disrupt fishing, cause boating and swimming hazards, knock down weak limbs and in extreme cases entire trees, and if the ground is really dry can cause wild and brush fires. NWS for lake season issues Lake Wind Advisories for 35MPH gust or higher or when 25mph is sustained. Some high wind events a Wind Advisory or High Wind Watch or Warning may be issued. This can really lower the lake rating even if the day is expected to be clear.
- Warm day but not extreme heat days (days were high index values are expected to be over 105) Of course coming into the summer days will be hot. I am not talking about days that are in the low 90's with little humidity. Or typical hot summer days what could be hazardous even to a lake day is these days were the heat index (what the temperature feels like to you combining the temperature with humidity) is around or over 105 degrees, or those triple digit days where being out and overworking yourself is dangerous to your health. These dangerous temperatures can even make a lake day sticky and dangerous. When a Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning is in effect expect no better than a 3 for a Heat Advisory and 2 for a Excessive Heat Warning on the lake day rating scale. Also if the temperature is forecasted to be under 72 degrees than that is a horrible lake day and will probably have a 2 or 3 rating at best.

5- Very confident to near certain of a great lake day (best rating)
1- Very great chance of a total ruined lake day this is a day you might as well stay home for. (worst rating)
The rating goes from 5 to 1. 1 is worst possible day as far as confidence in a good lake day. 5 is the best possible day as far as confidence of a good lake day.