Review and Blog of Good Friday Outbreak for West KY

EDDYVILLE Damage. EF1 tornado
Storm of the time of the Eddyville KY EF1 Tornado
WX Underground Image of EF0 Tornado around Crofton KY area.
RADAR IMAGE FROM NWS PAH of rotation at the time of the storm.


MANNINGTON KY (Christian CO) house gone.

NWS PAH track map for Christian County area tornado

IF one was to tell me that at least 4 tornadoes would occur in West Kentucky I would think
that you were pulling my leg.  On Friday Morning dewpoints were in the low 40's at
best and temps in around 50.  What I realized around 8am is that very moist and unstable
air was in N MS and rapidly moving into West and Mid TN and some of it was even moving
into West KY with 500-1000CAPE values and dewpoints into the 50's by the time the event
started to kick off.  The first storm formed in Fulton County and went tornado warned it
lasted into Graves County and produced some hail, but no tornado.  Then two storms formed
that would be the most prolific for West KY.  One in Lyon County that produced a quick EF1
Tornado in Eddyville despite only be T-Storm Warned. The tornado in Eddyville occurred just
east of town around Exit 4.  A commercial building had a wall blown out and a mobile home
blown over. 1 injury due to flying glass occurred.  At about that time a storm rapidly
started to rotate as it moved into North Christian.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
County. Here it dropped a narrow but intense tornado in Mannington KY area.  It destroyed
a well built house and left ceder blocks, two mobile homes, and 1 garage building. 2
injury reports occurred here. The tornado lifted right at the Hopkins/Christian County
line along US 41.

An hour later a supercell produced a second EF0 tornado in the Crofton area. Also some
damage occurred with a micro burst with an EF0 mixed in on the north side of Calloway County.

Things that we learned from this and other events like this
- The reason West KY was under a slight risk is that morning a few hours
before the event kicked off dewpoints were only in the 40's. As the morning
went on rapid instability increases occurred as the warm front lifted into the
area. 
- The area of West KY was very close to a strong low that didn't weaken
as quickly as it did.
-  Lapse rates are important.  When you have high lapse rates along with at least
some shear and decent moisture return you will have big time issues.
-  Just because there is severe storms mentioned and not tornadic storms doesn't mean
that I don't expect tornadoes to occur just I am not confident in an outbreak.  In this
case I underestimated the lapse rates and instability and should of went tornadic storms
but decided to be  conservative and not go Tornadic Storms so I will examine that
more clearly.
- Also a SPC Slight Risk just because it isn't a MDT or HIGH risk doesn't mean tornado can't occur
it means there isn't as much confidence compared to a MDT or HIGH risk day, or activity isn't expected to be on
the level of a MDT or HIGH risk day.
.  Slight Risks often times mean that the severe wx is more isolated or scattered.  Slight Risk days do have tornado probabilities in some
cases to.

Sometimes Slight Risk days can overproduce so even if it is a slight risk you need to watch for severe weather.
EXAMPLES (slight risk days in West KY and surrounding areas that overproduced) Days with a star beside them 
were only slight risks for West KY and a higher risk was in place in a surrounding state or area.
- Evansville/Henderson KY deadly tornadoes of Nov 6th 2005 
- October 18th ACT I 2004
- *Good Friday Outbreak 2009 (MDT and even HIGH were in TN/AL/GA but not West KY)
- March 28th 2009 (Corydon KY)
- Jan 7th/8th 2008 Tornado Outbreak 
- May 23rd and May 24th and May 26th 2000 Tornado Outbreaks in KY and TN
- *Jan 21st-22nd 1999 (High in West TN, ARK, and N MS but not West KY and NW Mid TN only slight)
 There are probably several more but some examples that in worse case models and forecasters make mistakes and
slight risks over perform.

                             
ALL IMAGES COURTESY OF NWS PAH.