Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Why does the last March for Winter have to be so complex?

A low confidence event is unfolding. With slight overrunning occurring a system can move across the Mid South. This will cause snow to mix with the rain and even a little sleet and freezing rain. Right now advisories are issued for West TN and parts of West Mid TN as moisture doesn't seem to be abundant in this situation. This is a situation in which the most intense moisture is in the warm sector.


A lot of uncertainties in how much and if any bands of wintry precipitation can form. With models going more northwards and with less moisture in the colder part of the storm.


It appears that accumulations of snow and sleet 1 to 2 inches thick and up to 1/10 inch of ice are possible in the advisory in West TN and NW Mid TN

With up to 1/2 to 1 inch of snow and sleet in West KY south of the West KY Parkway and flurries and light snow showers with probably nothing more than dusting north of that.


In this complex situation big time surprises can happen and Tomorrow we will see if this threat still exists or if a big time surprise occurred.

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