This has been a record and very devastating spring severe weather season across the nation, and even usi n Western KY faced a record amount of tornadoes this past April. Luckily and it stays this way. Western KY has yet to report a tornado fatality other communities have not been so lucky. Another round starts today in KS/OK/North TX/West ARK/SW MO today and moves to our area tomorrow and tomorrow night.
If you know anyone in Central or Eastern Oklahoma, South Central/Southeast Kansas, North Texas, or Western Arkansas and far SW Missouri they need to be highly alert in the next 12 to 18 hours. As a historic tornado event is becoming likely in that area. The same system that will cause the issues there will move into MO and IL tomorrow putting Western KY and portions of Middle TN in harms way.
Today- Isolated severe storms could form today in Middle TN(one already has formed) and Western KY. The intense stuff will stay in South KS, Oklahoma, and North TX through the early evening and move into MO and Arkansas in the overnight into tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow- A Moderate Risk of Severe Weather is in effect for all of Western KY. In Middle TN it is in effect from Springfield TN to Ashland City TN to Centerville TN line westward. Development refires along cold front/dryline from Eastern Missouri into Central Arkansas and North Louisiana in the afternoon. Another area of development may also fire along a warm front and possibly secondary low formation from Southern Illinois and possibly extend into the Purchase area of West KY and even far NW TN during the afternoon. This supercell development along Western KY and NW Middle TN is an uncertain part of the forecast. If it occurs the tornado and very large hail threat will increase. The formation in Eastern MO, and Central Arkansas is expected to form a squall line and race across Western Kentucky and Middle TN but weaken as it exits the MDT and moves east of I-65. Some hail/wind development may take place along and east of I-65 during the day on Thursday.
Threat rundown/Timing: Anytime from Wednesday Afternoon though the overnight hours of Wednesday Night.
Storm Mode: Possible supercells in the afternoon and evening which may or may not form. Squall Line/QLCS in the nighttime hours which will probably almost certainty form. Very Large Hail, Damaging Winds, and even a Tornado threat are likely on both modes. If supercells form out in the afternoon and evening and the wind shear is good a strong and long lived tornado threat may occur we will need to watch that. Locally heavy rain and flooding is possible if storms train over the same areas.
All of West KY and the MDT risk in Mid TN should be on alert this includes but is not limited to. Murray KY, Paducah KY, Fulton KY, Hopkinsville KY, Henderson KY, Owensboro KY, Bowling Green KY, Mayfield KY, Smithland KY, Wickliffe KY, Elkton KY, Cadiz KY, Marion KY, Greenville KY and all of Western KY. In TN this includes Memphis TN, Jackson TN, Union City TN, Paris TN, Dover TN, Clarksville TN, Dickson TN, Linden TN, Parsons TN, Waverly TN, Camden TN, Lexington TN, Pleasant View TN, Savannah TN, Milan TN, Dyersburg TN or form a Springfield TN to Ashland City TN to Centerville TN line westward.
Awareness: Keep NOAA WX Radio handy, and have more then one source of warning(Noaa WX Radio, TV/Media, Radio, a friend, etc.) in case one of your sources fails. Follow these tornado rules.
The Good news is after we get past Wednesday we have Memorial Day Weekend and a much better forecast for that weekend. With the exception of summertime scattered storms the Memorial Day Weekend looks to be a decent lake weekend. Sunday and Monday look really good. Everyone needs to be on alert tomorrow and tomorrow night.
- Don't ignore any flooding or lightning threats in severe storms. Tornadic Storms and intense squall lines are known to be loaded with lightning.
- Even in a Severe Thunderstorm Warning when enhanced wind is expected evacuate mobile homes/tents/vulnerable structures.
- Get out of mobile homes in an event of a tornado warning, and if you live in a mobile home or vulnerable home know your nearest shelter.
- If a Tornado Warning is issued either get to a basement or underground shelter if that is not available use an interior hallway or closet or bathroom.
- Have NOAA WX Radio
- Have more then one may to get warnings in case that fails
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