Lake Day Outlook

Starting on Friday for Memorial Day Weekend and running until Labor Day Weekend will be the lake day forecast. Which will be the forecast for the Land Between the Lakes(Marshall, Calloway, Trigg, Lyon, Livingston KY, and Henry/Stewart/Houston/Benton counties in TN.) and Lake Malone(Todd, Muhlenberg,Logan counties in KY) areas. This will determine whether it is a good lake day, a bad lake day, or just an okay lake day. A rating of 1 is the worst possible lake day you can get while a 5 is the best possible lake day you can get.. Also the lake day forecast will be given if possible the night before, and revised if needed. All weekends (Friday,Saturday, Sunday, and even Monday on holiday weekends) from Memorial Day until Labor Day will have a Lake Day forecast number. The 4th of July will also have a lake day forecast as well. Doesn't include normal weekdays, as the best lake tourism is the the weekend if requested I could give a quick weekday overview. 5 is the best, 1 is stay at the lodge or stay home day. More on that at the bottom of this way to long note. First lake day outlook will be for Friday, and I will try to do that Tonight.

Summertime weather is hard to follow. A lot of summertime days will feature isolated to scattered storms that will pulse up and then die down.

This will be tracked on facebook, and on blogspot http://www.blogger.com/home?pli=1. Either way my profile or that blogspot will have it also if you follow Western KY Weather on facebook it will contain the lake day forecast.

What Makes a Great Lake Day(factors) 5 out of 5

- Sunny and clear days: Many late spring and summer days have at least a 20% of summer time heat of time isolated showers/storm. Unless there is a organized low or some type of boundary it isn't an all day event. Of course on days where washouts are expected these are your 1 or 2 out of 5 lake days.

- Lack of severe thunderstorms: This goes along with the first one. Since KY severe wx season is Apr-Jun and late May and June are prime lake months this can be an important one. SPC outlooks assign risks Slight, Moderate, and High for potential for severe weather. Any time a Moderate or High Risk is assigned expect a lake day rating no higher than 3 on the lake day rating for a Moderate, and 2 for a High. As damaging winds especially can become big time Lake hazards. Also Tornadoes and Hail can mess up a great lake day.

- Lack of High and Gusty Wind (non thunderstorm): High Wind days can be bad news for the lake days. These days can disrupt fishing, cause boating and swimming hazards, knock down weak limbs and in extreme cases entire trees, and if the ground is really dry can cause wild and brush fires. NWS for lake season issues Lake Wind Advisories for 35MPH gust or higher or when 25mph is sustained. Some high wind events a Wind Advisory or even High Wind Watch or Warning may be issued. This can really lower the lake rating even if the day is expected to be clear.

- Warm day but not extreme heat days (days were high index values are expected to be over 105) Of course coming into the summer days will be hot. I am not talking about days that are in the low 90's with little humidity. Or typical hot summer days what could be hazardous even to a lake day is these days were the heat index (what the temperature feels like to you combining the temperature with humidity) is around or over 105 degrees, or those triple digit days where being out and overworking yourself is dangerous to your health. These dangerous temperatures can even make a lake day sticky and dangerous. When a Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning is in effect expect no better than a 3 on the lake day rating scale. There were a few days in 2009 that were only a 3 out of 5 due to cool temps.

5- Very confident to near certain of a great lake day: Get out and enjoy (best rating)

4- Pretty confident of a great lake day: There may be some gusty winds, or isolated thunderstorms, but nothing that would ruin the whole day.

3- So-So: This is a day that could go either way. There may be a slight risk of severe wx, but it expected to ruin the day, or it could be a really nice day, but it is either to windy, or too hot. Or there could be scattered thunderstorms that could ruin at least part of the day. I would still go to the lake on a 3 out of 5 day, but would use caution

2- Not a good lake day: May want to re-plan, or if you decide to go to the lake watch out for weather hazards that more than likely could be present. This past 4th of July was this one. These days usually are washouts, or may not be washouts, but could have part of the day where a significant severe wx, or flooding event could occur. Or a 2 out of 5 may be clear, but could feature 50-60 MPH wind gusts, and or an extreme, record breaking heat wave could be the reason for the 2 out of 5 lake day, despite the fact that it is clear. If you go to the lake on this day, stay tuned to the weather. If it is a 2 out of 5 due to heat (although this will likely be a 3 out of 5 as long as everything else is good) limit your outdoor activity, and drink plenty of fluids. If the IKE wind day in Sept 2008 was a lake day it would make a case for a 2 out of 5 days mostly due to the wind gusts.

1- Very confident that this will be a bad lake day: Either a total washout is expected or a severe weather outbreak, extreme winds, or in many of 1 out of 5 lake days a combo of the things listed above. This will be a rare rating a 1 out of 5 lake day will be a day, that you won't even need me to tell it is bad, you will just know it (worst rating)