Elevated Fire Danger expected today.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 517 AM CDT
 THU SEP 30 2010  ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ001>022-
MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301700-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON
-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS
-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU
-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN
... JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO... MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS
...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE... EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...
HICKMAN...CLINTON... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND..
.BENTON... MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO... CALHOUN..
.GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL... CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT..
.VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF... BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID 517 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010  ...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION...
AND NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND THE
HUMIDITY LEVEL RISES.  $$    

Fall is a here

After today and tom. warm to near 80, expect another cool down. With Highs in the low to mid 60's and lows around 40, maybe some 38 -39 readings in rural areas cannot be ruled out.

Remember Fall Severe WX Awareness

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=fallsevereweatherawarenessday-sept29%2C2010

Today should, or I hope it should be the last 90 degree day for anyone in West KY.

Some changes are coming.

First some rain chances from Sunday though Wednesday to deal with. Not a lot of rain expected, but the clouds and rain should keep the temps. in the 70's.

Elevated Fire Danger/Some Wind

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/nowcast.php?site=pah

Check the link for more details.

KY Drought Map.

http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_2_792_223_0_43/http%3B/drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?KY,MW

Here comes the Drought Outlook everyone in West KY is in D0, with most areas in D1 Moderate Drought, a small area of D2(Severe Drought) exists across parts of Fulton and Hickman County. Rain chances are on the rise across the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

Special Weather Statement

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
403 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

ILZ075>078-081>083-085>087-089>091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ005>022-232000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-
WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-
MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...
BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
403 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND
30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION...AND FORECAST GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...MEANS
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK.

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE...WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST...AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IN ADDITION TO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION
OF WEST KENTUCKY INCLUDING THE LAKES AREA. NEVER THE LESS...WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. VEGETATION
ACROSS THE LAKES AREA IS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

$$

Elevated fire danger

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=57729&source=0

New NWS Update.

I don't really see a pattern breakdown till Mid to Late October, but we will get a some relief(upper 70's lower 80's) this weekend.

Unbelievable Fall Blowtorch excepted across the Southeast and Ohio Valley this week. With record highs and poor air quality possible to likely.

Several areas were in the Mid 90's today and that could continue into Thursday.

As classic as Hurricanes come

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100913_g15_igor_vis_anim.gif

Early Winter Thoughts(Regional)

Click if you want to enlarge the maps.

First is the Temp. Map and Second is the Precip map. This is a very preliminary look, of my thoughts of winter. Factors include a potent La Nina event, a -PDO pattern, an active Pacific jet, potential for a battleground zone. Due to uncertainties with NAO (on this outlook I did a neutral to slightly positive one, but that would be overtaken by the unfavorable Pacific and ENSO.

- A SE Ridge is a big story this winter, this could create above average to very above average temps. at the time across the Eastern and Southeastern USA.
- The active Northern Stream and where it collides with the SE Ridge "Battleground zone" are also huge stories. The "Battleground Zone" could face well above average precipitation, severe weather events, and even a few overrunning winter events cannot be ruled out.
- Although small there is a small Below Average Temp zone on the edge of the map. At this point I will go for Below Average temps. from NE Colorado and Nebraska Panhandle and extended towards the Northern Rockies and Pacific NW, and also portions of Western Canada and portions of the Arctic, this is where I think the only widespread Below Average Temps will be.
- There could be a period for a good snow in Late Feb./March.
- Cool Season severe weather threats will be a problem for much of the Southeast and MS/OH valley areas. I think the best chances will be in the Mid-South where the battleground will be maximized, but all of the SE needs to be on ground for severe wx potential.
- If a Wedge forms that could make temps. a little closer to average for portions of the SE instead of way above average, also if the battleground pushed more southward then, temps may be closer to average in Northern and Western portions of the SE then depicted on the map.
- Some analogs are stronger La Nina's of the 50's and 70's. Such as 49-50, 55-56, 73-74, and even 07-08. Although similar patterns to these winters are likely, just because you got hit by two tornadoes in 07-08, or you house flooded in 49-50 doesn't mean that same specific weather event will happen again, this are the large pattern analogs, not meant to predict, whether a tornado will hit your house, or anything like that.

I will post it a little more detail on my thoughts locally later this month.

Red Flag Warning

NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for: Henderson,Union,Daviess counties. Special weather statement highlighted some fire threat has been issued for the rest of Western Kentucky.

Some nice cool lows

Hopkinsville: 49
Henderson: 45
Paducah: 50

Wildfire danger in West KY on Labor Day.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
421 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010


ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
098-100-106>112-114-052100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FW.A.0002.100906T1700Z-100907T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-SHANNON-
WAYNE MO-OREGON-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
421 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE RISK
OVER THE QUAD STATE REGION LABOR DAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY LIE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

Nice pretty weather for the weekend. No complaints.

Tonight Lows go into the low 50's. Tom. Highs around 76 to 81 cooler across NW KY, and warmer along southern Purchase.

Lows could dive below 50 on Saturday Night, Sunday Morning

Heat and Drought in perspective.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=55333&source=0

Cool down at least somewhat

Cool down continues. Some areas will not get out of the 80's today. Also 50's for lows for Wednesday and Thursday Night so get out and enjoy that. The ridge may return and bring back the low to mid 90's for the first week of September, including Labor Day Weekend.

This should also end Paducah's streak of at or above 90+ days, at around 37 or 38, which is right around the record of 38 set back in 1999.

Drought Update 8/17(uploaded on 8/19)

Luckily no D2+ plus drought, but everyone in Western Kentucky is at least (d0) abnormally dry, with D1(moderate drought) across a vast majority of the West KY 22.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?KY,MW
Drought Link is above.

T-Storm Watch 614 for Southern and eastern portions of Western KY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ017&warncounty=KYC047&firewxzone=KYZ017&local_place1=2+Miles+ENE+Hopkinsville+KY&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch

Heat and Storms

Slight Risk of damaging winds in strongest storms today, to go along with the heat.

Confidence Level of Heat- 5 out of 5
Confidence Level of Severe Storms- 1 out of 5

106 HI at Hopkinsville KY
108 HI at Murray KY
110 HI at Morganfield KY

It isn't even 11am yet.

Temps. are already in the mid to upper 90's with dewpoints in the 70's to contribute to this blowtorch.

Some like it hot, but they are not going to be liking this.

West KY it is burning.

For West KY watch for temps. from 97 to 102. HI of 105 to 115. Check on your elders, stay cool, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks if your working outside. Also watch for isolated thunderstorms that could form this afternoon and evening. Those could contain lightning and locally heavy rain.

Confidence Level of Extreme Heat is 5 out of 5 till at Least Thursday, but may last until Friday/Saturday.

Temps. of 95-100 are present across West KY. With Heat Index values of 104 to 115 stay cool out there.

Heat Warning continues till Thursday, also watch out for isolated thunderstorms.

Another one of those Heat Warning things

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
319 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-101000-
/O.UPG.KPAH.HT.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-100813T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.EH.W.0002.100809T2019Z-100813T0100Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
319 PM CDT MON AUG 9 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE
HEAT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE...AND
 MANY LOCATIONS WILL EXCEED 110 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER
 SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND THE PURCHASE AREA
 OF WEST KENTUCKY. NIGHTTIME MINIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN
 THE MID 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
 POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
 ADDED CLOUD COVER...AND BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF TO SOME AREAS.

* PERSISTENT HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO 110 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL
 DAYS CAN BECOME INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS TO MOST PEOPLE IF THE
 PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE
 ELDERLY...THOSE WITH ILLNESSES OR HEART CONDITIONS...AND THOSE
 WHO WORK OR PARTICIPATE IN RECREATION OUTDOORS ARE MOST AT RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

CHILDREN AND PETS SHOULD NEVER BE LEFT UNATTENDED IN VEHICLES
UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING WARM OR
HOT WEATHER WHEN CAR INTERIORS CAN REACH LETHAL TEMPEATURES IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES. BEAT THE HEAT...CHECK THE BACK SEAT.

&&

$$

DRS

Fall Preview 2010

FALL OUTLOOK

While Western Kentucky is basking in heat, I will go ahead and look forward to Fall. Forecasts for Autumn are actually more trickier than winter, and we all know how tricky long rnage forecasting can be anyway. This year may be slightly easier, because some of the signals are already apparant for Fall and even Winter. One is a fast growing, and potentially record La Nina event. I wouldn't be surprised to see this La Nina come close, or even break the 73-74 record of -2.1C.
We look to be in a -PDO pattern, which could strengthen the pacific jet this fall and winter, along with a La Nina which looks to be in the -1.5C to -2.2C range. One thing I am also noticing is how strong, and long lasting the southeast ridge is. A lot of times when a summer ridge acts up this much in Summer, it typically can follow into the first part of fall.

Take 2007 for an example. A year that featured August 2007 to be the hottest month on record, there wasn't any serious relief from the heat till Mid October. It had to take a system that would produce 15 tornadoes across Western Kentucky to finally but a serious end to the hot/dry pattern of that year. While it may not be extreme I do belief the SE ridge will give us episodes of summer like heat as late as first half of October.

These following pictures are your for fun predictions for Temp. and Precip. for the Fall (Sept 1st-Nov 30th) Period. Click them to enlarge

SEPTEMBER: This month is probably going to be the more boring of the fall months. This month could also follow in the footsteps of June-August with an intense ridge, and little relief from the heat. The saving graces besides the sun angle decreasing, is there could be potential for the effects of a tropical system. If that happens it could provide relief from the heat, and needed rain as some areas in Western Kentucky are starting to head into drought. If we don't get any tropical influences this could be one of the Top 10 Warmest Septembers on record.

OCTOBER: This could be the month that we finally get rid of the excessive heat. Sure the SE Ridge will briefly stick it's ugly head out throughout late fall, and winter, but we could get at least something that would resemble fall like conditions. First part of this month could be a continuation of warm and dry, but this month you will start to see fronts move in to provide some relief. Also precipitation during at least the second half of this month could be above average(esp. along the Ohio River). With pattern changing cold fronts later this month watch out for fall severe weather, and heavy rain events.

NOVEMBER: This is where we will start to see the battleground of the airmasses take off. To give a hint about winter, there will be clashes between the cooler northern stream, southeast ridge, and a quite strong Pacific Jet. Although being south and east enough we will see the brief wrath of the ridge, storms will be trying to break into the ridge starting in October, and continuing on into November, and the winter/early spring of next year. Watch for Fall Severe Weather events, High Wind events, and Heavy Rain events this month. If we get cold enough some areas may see flurries/light snow sometime this month.

Overall make sure that if you don't have a NOAA weather radio to get one by October. This will wake you up if there are any hazardous threats around, that you need to know about. It is impossible to predict exactly how active any severe or high wind event will get in the real long range, but the pattern is one that could support a few nasty wind/severe wx events esp. Mid October-Late November. As a hint for the winter overview next month, maybe into the winter months as well.