Fall Preview 2010

FALL OUTLOOK

While Western Kentucky is basking in heat, I will go ahead and look forward to Fall. Forecasts for Autumn are actually more trickier than winter, and we all know how tricky long rnage forecasting can be anyway. This year may be slightly easier, because some of the signals are already apparant for Fall and even Winter. One is a fast growing, and potentially record La Nina event. I wouldn't be surprised to see this La Nina come close, or even break the 73-74 record of -2.1C.
We look to be in a -PDO pattern, which could strengthen the pacific jet this fall and winter, along with a La Nina which looks to be in the -1.5C to -2.2C range. One thing I am also noticing is how strong, and long lasting the southeast ridge is. A lot of times when a summer ridge acts up this much in Summer, it typically can follow into the first part of fall.

Take 2007 for an example. A year that featured August 2007 to be the hottest month on record, there wasn't any serious relief from the heat till Mid October. It had to take a system that would produce 15 tornadoes across Western Kentucky to finally but a serious end to the hot/dry pattern of that year. While it may not be extreme I do belief the SE ridge will give us episodes of summer like heat as late as first half of October.

These following pictures are your for fun predictions for Temp. and Precip. for the Fall (Sept 1st-Nov 30th) Period. Click them to enlarge

SEPTEMBER: This month is probably going to be the more boring of the fall months. This month could also follow in the footsteps of June-August with an intense ridge, and little relief from the heat. The saving graces besides the sun angle decreasing, is there could be potential for the effects of a tropical system. If that happens it could provide relief from the heat, and needed rain as some areas in Western Kentucky are starting to head into drought. If we don't get any tropical influences this could be one of the Top 10 Warmest Septembers on record.

OCTOBER: This could be the month that we finally get rid of the excessive heat. Sure the SE Ridge will briefly stick it's ugly head out throughout late fall, and winter, but we could get at least something that would resemble fall like conditions. First part of this month could be a continuation of warm and dry, but this month you will start to see fronts move in to provide some relief. Also precipitation during at least the second half of this month could be above average(esp. along the Ohio River). With pattern changing cold fronts later this month watch out for fall severe weather, and heavy rain events.

NOVEMBER: This is where we will start to see the battleground of the airmasses take off. To give a hint about winter, there will be clashes between the cooler northern stream, southeast ridge, and a quite strong Pacific Jet. Although being south and east enough we will see the brief wrath of the ridge, storms will be trying to break into the ridge starting in October, and continuing on into November, and the winter/early spring of next year. Watch for Fall Severe Weather events, High Wind events, and Heavy Rain events this month. If we get cold enough some areas may see flurries/light snow sometime this month.

Overall make sure that if you don't have a NOAA weather radio to get one by October. This will wake you up if there are any hazardous threats around, that you need to know about. It is impossible to predict exactly how active any severe or high wind event will get in the real long range, but the pattern is one that could support a few nasty wind/severe wx events esp. Mid October-Late November. As a hint for the winter overview next month, maybe into the winter months as well.