Early Winter Thoughts(Regional)

Click if you want to enlarge the maps.

First is the Temp. Map and Second is the Precip map. This is a very preliminary look, of my thoughts of winter. Factors include a potent La Nina event, a -PDO pattern, an active Pacific jet, potential for a battleground zone. Due to uncertainties with NAO (on this outlook I did a neutral to slightly positive one, but that would be overtaken by the unfavorable Pacific and ENSO.

- A SE Ridge is a big story this winter, this could create above average to very above average temps. at the time across the Eastern and Southeastern USA.
- The active Northern Stream and where it collides with the SE Ridge "Battleground zone" are also huge stories. The "Battleground Zone" could face well above average precipitation, severe weather events, and even a few overrunning winter events cannot be ruled out.
- Although small there is a small Below Average Temp zone on the edge of the map. At this point I will go for Below Average temps. from NE Colorado and Nebraska Panhandle and extended towards the Northern Rockies and Pacific NW, and also portions of Western Canada and portions of the Arctic, this is where I think the only widespread Below Average Temps will be.
- There could be a period for a good snow in Late Feb./March.
- Cool Season severe weather threats will be a problem for much of the Southeast and MS/OH valley areas. I think the best chances will be in the Mid-South where the battleground will be maximized, but all of the SE needs to be on ground for severe wx potential.
- If a Wedge forms that could make temps. a little closer to average for portions of the SE instead of way above average, also if the battleground pushed more southward then, temps may be closer to average in Northern and Western portions of the SE then depicted on the map.
- Some analogs are stronger La Nina's of the 50's and 70's. Such as 49-50, 55-56, 73-74, and even 07-08. Although similar patterns to these winters are likely, just because you got hit by two tornadoes in 07-08, or you house flooded in 49-50 doesn't mean that same specific weather event will happen again, this are the large pattern analogs, not meant to predict, whether a tornado will hit your house, or anything like that.

I will post it a little more detail on my thoughts locally later this month.