Lake Day Forecast!!!!
The lake day forecast is where we examine the forecast and the weather models and come up with a rating from 1 to 5 on what type of day it will be weather wise for those who venture out on the lakes.
The Scale:
5: Great Lake Day (Get out and enjoy, still watch for any stray surprise t-storm that may of not been forecasted.)
4: Good Lake Day (Get out and enjoy, but watch for any hazard. These days are usually days that would be 5 out of 5 lake days except for isolated storm chances, or lingering cloudcover.)
3: Decent Lake Day (A little bit more iffy, still can be a good lake day, but usually storms are a bit more widespread, or it is excessively hot, or it is a nice sunny day that is pretty windy, or a combination.)
2: Poor Lake Day (Probably best to stay at home, but you can venture out. Usually days that could be washouts, or days which may feature some widespread severe weather actions, or 50MPH+ non-thunderstorm wind gusts, or a combination.)
1: Miserable Lake Day (It is best to stay at home or in the cabin during these days, these are your washout days, or days where there is a very high risk of widespread damaging wind/tornado events.)
What lakes/bodies of water does the Lake Day Forecast cover?
The lake day forecast covers the two main lakes in Western Kentucky and Northwest Middle Tennessee. The LBL area(portions of Livingston,Lyon,Marshall,Calloway,and Trigg Counties in Kentucky, and portions of Henry, Houston,Stewart,Humphries,and Benton counties in Tennessee) and Lake Malone(portions of Muhlenberg, Todd, and Logan counties in Kentucky). This includes places on LBL like Big Sandy, Venture River Water Park, Paris Landing, Energy Lake, and up towards Grand Rivers. Upon personal request I will be glad to check the forecast/models/or radar for any lake in Kentucky or Tennessee. On the 4th of July in particular areas along rivers like the Ohio, Mississippi, and Cumberland that run along Western KY and Middle TN will also be monitored, because a lot of 4th of July events occur along these major rivers.
When does the Lake Day Forecast come out?
The night before a designated lake day, and will be updated in the morning-midday hours of the lake day. A designated lake day is any Friday, Saturday, or Sunday from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend, and also the holidays of Memorial Day, 4th of July, and Labor Day.
An example Lake Day Forecast
Thursday Night an overview comes out. Let's pretend this is a random June day. The overview will be where I assign the first values for the whole week. Then each night, and again that morning I will update as needed.
Thursday Night Overview: (This is a Pretend Example)
Friday- Lake Day 4 out of 5: An isolated threat of non-severe thunderstorms and winds may increase overnight, but overall a good lake day.
Saturday- Lake Day 2 out of 5: Scattered to widespread thunderstorms with the threat of widespread damaging winds, both non-thunderstorm and thunderstorm.)
Sunday- Lake Day 5 out of 5: Nice temps around 90 with abundant sunshine and calm winds.
Factors that are taken into account:
Precipitation: No or very little chance of thunderstorms, which can contain lightning or gusty winds, which are dangerous to lake goers. Any risk of organized severe weather(Especially a SPC Moderate or High Risk) will negatively impact the lake day forecast greatly.
CloudCover: Days that are sunny or mostly sunny just make better lake days. Cloudcover can impact things like fishing.
Wind Speed: Days with wind gusts of over 35MPH can cause problems operating craft and boats on the water.
Temperature: We want the Heat Index, which is what the temperature feels like to your body when you factor in the humidity, to be between 72-104. If it goes below 72 it is a too cool for a lot of people to want to be at the lakes, and if it hits 105 or above the risk of heat exhaustion and even heat stroke goes up.
Factors that aren't taken into account, but still need to be watched for:
This is just for the weather on that day. The lake day forecast doesn't take into account long range climate(like droughts and the aftereffects of flooding.) The lake day forecast doesn't take into account Geological, Biological, and Man-Made impacts that aren't weather related. Still these are things you should still watch out for.
Flood impacts: Not a problem in 2012, but was in 2010 and 2011 watch out for flood damaged areas, areas at risk of mass wasting(mudslides, rock falls, etc..) Any flooded out structures may prose a hazardous creature or bacteria threat.
Drought impacts: Watch out in dry periods like we are facing heading into Memorial Day weekend here in 2012. Low water areas are a concern in drought. Also wildfire danger when you have hot days and dry vegetation is a major concern. Monitor all campfires and respect all potential burn-bans.
Biological factors: Watch out for ticks and mosquitoes and be prepared for them. Beware of live animals on the road, and always keep an eye on snakes. Four species of venomous snakes inhabit the LBL area.
Earthquakes: This one may seem a little strange to include, but LBL is in the line of fire if the big quake occurs. Having a major earthquake occur, and that quake would occur on a weekend between Memorial Day Weekend and Labor Day weekend is very rare statistically, but there is always that threat. With that being said it is a good idea to have an idea to know in the event of an earthquake just in case.
Man Made Impacts: There are some things that humans can do to that can make a 5 out of 5 lake day into a 1 out of 5 lake day. Any road construction is something you should watch and respect. Don't leave valuables unintended as there is always the threat of thieves. Respect burn-bans, and under no circumstances do not throw chert into the campfire. Another word of advice is to keep the drama at home. Starting drama can lead to fights, loss of friendships, the potential of getting in trouble with the law, and of course turn a good lake day into a nightmare. Also drama makes the citizens of Kentucky and Tennessee look bad to out of state visitors. We want to show everyone that isn't from this area that we can have a good time, and still have southern charm. I don't believe in judging or telling people how to live, because that is not my place to do so, but I do want people to realize that every decision has a consequence whether good or bad.
Disclaimer:
When making important decisions involving the lakes remember to go to the experts the National Weather Service which is linked below. The Lake Day Forecast is a guide, but it shouldn't be used in place of the National Weather Service, the US forest service, USGS, or other major Governmental agencies responsible for making the water ways of Western Kentucky and Northwest Middle TN enjoyable.
The lake day forecast is where we examine the forecast and the weather models and come up with a rating from 1 to 5 on what type of day it will be weather wise for those who venture out on the lakes.
The Scale:
5: Great Lake Day (Get out and enjoy, still watch for any stray surprise t-storm that may of not been forecasted.)
4: Good Lake Day (Get out and enjoy, but watch for any hazard. These days are usually days that would be 5 out of 5 lake days except for isolated storm chances, or lingering cloudcover.)
3: Decent Lake Day (A little bit more iffy, still can be a good lake day, but usually storms are a bit more widespread, or it is excessively hot, or it is a nice sunny day that is pretty windy, or a combination.)
2: Poor Lake Day (Probably best to stay at home, but you can venture out. Usually days that could be washouts, or days which may feature some widespread severe weather actions, or 50MPH+ non-thunderstorm wind gusts, or a combination.)
1: Miserable Lake Day (It is best to stay at home or in the cabin during these days, these are your washout days, or days where there is a very high risk of widespread damaging wind/tornado events.)
What lakes/bodies of water does the Lake Day Forecast cover?
The lake day forecast covers the two main lakes in Western Kentucky and Northwest Middle Tennessee. The LBL area(portions of Livingston,Lyon,Marshall,Calloway,and Trigg Counties in Kentucky, and portions of Henry, Houston,Stewart,Humphries,and Benton counties in Tennessee) and Lake Malone(portions of Muhlenberg, Todd, and Logan counties in Kentucky). This includes places on LBL like Big Sandy, Venture River Water Park, Paris Landing, Energy Lake, and up towards Grand Rivers. Upon personal request I will be glad to check the forecast/models/or radar for any lake in Kentucky or Tennessee. On the 4th of July in particular areas along rivers like the Ohio, Mississippi, and Cumberland that run along Western KY and Middle TN will also be monitored, because a lot of 4th of July events occur along these major rivers.
When does the Lake Day Forecast come out?
The night before a designated lake day, and will be updated in the morning-midday hours of the lake day. A designated lake day is any Friday, Saturday, or Sunday from Memorial Day Weekend to Labor Day Weekend, and also the holidays of Memorial Day, 4th of July, and Labor Day.
An example Lake Day Forecast
Thursday Night an overview comes out. Let's pretend this is a random June day. The overview will be where I assign the first values for the whole week. Then each night, and again that morning I will update as needed.
Thursday Night Overview: (This is a Pretend Example)
Friday- Lake Day 4 out of 5: An isolated threat of non-severe thunderstorms and winds may increase overnight, but overall a good lake day.
Saturday- Lake Day 2 out of 5: Scattered to widespread thunderstorms with the threat of widespread damaging winds, both non-thunderstorm and thunderstorm.)
Sunday- Lake Day 5 out of 5: Nice temps around 90 with abundant sunshine and calm winds.
Factors that are taken into account:
Precipitation: No or very little chance of thunderstorms, which can contain lightning or gusty winds, which are dangerous to lake goers. Any risk of organized severe weather(Especially a SPC Moderate or High Risk) will negatively impact the lake day forecast greatly.
CloudCover: Days that are sunny or mostly sunny just make better lake days. Cloudcover can impact things like fishing.
Wind Speed: Days with wind gusts of over 35MPH can cause problems operating craft and boats on the water.
Temperature: We want the Heat Index, which is what the temperature feels like to your body when you factor in the humidity, to be between 72-104. If it goes below 72 it is a too cool for a lot of people to want to be at the lakes, and if it hits 105 or above the risk of heat exhaustion and even heat stroke goes up.
Factors that aren't taken into account, but still need to be watched for:
This is just for the weather on that day. The lake day forecast doesn't take into account long range climate(like droughts and the aftereffects of flooding.) The lake day forecast doesn't take into account Geological, Biological, and Man-Made impacts that aren't weather related. Still these are things you should still watch out for.
Flood impacts: Not a problem in 2012, but was in 2010 and 2011 watch out for flood damaged areas, areas at risk of mass wasting(mudslides, rock falls, etc..) Any flooded out structures may prose a hazardous creature or bacteria threat.
Drought impacts: Watch out in dry periods like we are facing heading into Memorial Day weekend here in 2012. Low water areas are a concern in drought. Also wildfire danger when you have hot days and dry vegetation is a major concern. Monitor all campfires and respect all potential burn-bans.
Biological factors: Watch out for ticks and mosquitoes and be prepared for them. Beware of live animals on the road, and always keep an eye on snakes. Four species of venomous snakes inhabit the LBL area.
Earthquakes: This one may seem a little strange to include, but LBL is in the line of fire if the big quake occurs. Having a major earthquake occur, and that quake would occur on a weekend between Memorial Day Weekend and Labor Day weekend is very rare statistically, but there is always that threat. With that being said it is a good idea to have an idea to know in the event of an earthquake just in case.
Man Made Impacts: There are some things that humans can do to that can make a 5 out of 5 lake day into a 1 out of 5 lake day. Any road construction is something you should watch and respect. Don't leave valuables unintended as there is always the threat of thieves. Respect burn-bans, and under no circumstances do not throw chert into the campfire. Another word of advice is to keep the drama at home. Starting drama can lead to fights, loss of friendships, the potential of getting in trouble with the law, and of course turn a good lake day into a nightmare. Also drama makes the citizens of Kentucky and Tennessee look bad to out of state visitors. We want to show everyone that isn't from this area that we can have a good time, and still have southern charm. I don't believe in judging or telling people how to live, because that is not my place to do so, but I do want people to realize that every decision has a consequence whether good or bad.
Disclaimer:
When making important decisions involving the lakes remember to go to the experts the National Weather Service which is linked below. The Lake Day Forecast is a guide, but it shouldn't be used in place of the National Weather Service, the US forest service, USGS, or other major Governmental agencies responsible for making the water ways of Western Kentucky and Northwest Middle TN enjoyable.
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