SpringBreakers Thursday Update

A sig. severe weather event is expected across Western KY Thursday thu Midday Friday. As of right now NWS Paduach has mentioned the poss of Long Tracked Supercells producing pot. long tracked tornadoes. With the shear and dynamics being off the chart that is def possibile. The threat in West KY will start along several lines

1) Warm Front- Thoughtout the day the warm front early Thursday will make it's northeast run from OK/ Arkansas towards IL, MO, and yes even West Ky and into TN. SUpercells and poss Training supercells. Which this could be anytime during the day for West KY. This may also actually be one of our biggest chances of supercells out of this system.

2) Shortwaves/Outflows/Warm Sector Storms- The precip in AK, and OK may create outflow boundaries that act out as lift for the next storms. As the boundary layer rapidly destablizes thoughout the afternoon more supercells and possible bow echos esp with the jet streak and the crazy shaer will be poss with the pot of gigantic hail, damaging winds in excess of 100 MPH, and Tornadoes that could be strong and poss long tracked.

3) Cold Front and Main System itself- Looks like first depending on the timing Thurs night-Fri Midday looks good for this time. The storm mode is a pot high end squall line/derecho with damaging winds in excess of 100MPH poss in strongest storms along with hail and tornadoes for any storm in or any supercelluar type system outside the derecho/squall line/quasi linear type system.

The threat for the whole states of KY and TN appears to gets worse as you go from West( being the biggest threat) to East (having a good sized threat but not as sig as West.)

Plus tornado hit areas of Sumner and Macon county TN may get lucky if timing permits and my miss the most sig part of squall line and supercells from west to east. Timing may deterioate the system Thurs Night, and tthe main performance may to off to the east of the area Friday afternoon. Don't ocunt on it though it iwll all depend on timing it does look like there may be a less sig threat lapse somewhere in Mid TN. Also be concerned about noctural jet which may prevent that and the poss of still several pre frontal supercells if they form.