Archive of High Risk on 4/16/98

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ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 161531
MKC AC 161531
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.
VALID 161500Z - 171200Z
REF WW NUMBER 0226...VALID TIL 0180Z
REF WW NUMBER 0228...VALID TIL 0210Z


THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN/AL/MS/ERN AR AND
EXTREME NW GA. THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PBF 30 NNE MEM 40 ENE DYR 30 NE BNA 35 NNE CSV 40 N TYS
10 E TYS 25 E CHA 20 WNW RMG 30 SSE HSV CBM 30 SSE GWO 50 E MLU
35 NE MLU 30 E PBF.


THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PSB 35 W ABE TTN ACY 10 ENE WAL 10 E ORF 20 NNE RWI
25 SE CLT CSG 50 NNE MOB LFT 30 SW POE 25 ESE GGG 20 SSE TXK
20 W JBR PAH 25 NE EVV IND 30 SE SBN 15 SSW GRR 15 N LAN 25 E TOL
20 NW YNG PIT LBE 20 SE PSB.


GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 45 S LFK
20 NW LFK 15 W GGG 25 WNW TXK 55 SE HRO CGI 25 SSW HUF 25 NNW LAF
CGX 20 WNW MKE 25 NNE GRB 25 E PLN ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 15 N BID
...CONT... 25 SSW MYR 25 SW SAV VLD AQQ.


GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 E 3HT
55 NNW CPR FCL 45 WSW CAO 25 SE LVS 25 SE GNT 40 SE E03 25 E PRC
25 NE IGM 20 ENE LAS 50 E TPH U31 15 NE WMC 45 E BNO 35 NNW 63S.


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLY FAST WSW FLOW CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. UPPER TROF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO SRN ONTARIO...AS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS NE INTO WRN NY/PA.


AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MS VALLEY TROF EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN
PORTION MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. E/W-
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG IT LATER TODAY.


...TN VALLEY...
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS FEATURE REMAINS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FAST WSW JET ALOFT.
SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER E TX AT THE MOMENT. CONTINUED ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE UVV AND
SEVERE THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. PRESENCE
OF COMPARATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12/
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL BE OFFSET BY INFLUX OF VERY RICH
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. THREAT WILL BE
HIGH FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
FARTHER N...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH UPLIFT ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF ERN IND/OH/LWR MI. UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE HEATING INVOF SURFACE LOW AS NEWD-MOVING COOL POOL
ROTATES NEWD ON N SIDE OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER JET.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE MOMENT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ENCOUNTERS REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

..CORFIDI.. 04/16/98

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