Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Severe WX poss Friday and Prom Morning
Severe WX is poss. Friday and Sat Morning a squall line along the cold fornt and poss supercells will pose a damaging wind/hail threat along with the poss. of isolated tornadoes. Prom day forecast is rain and thudnerstorms before Noon. Prom dinner outsdie may be wet but rain chances sohuld end by the time prom dinners and def by the prom dance.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Week of the Restless
This is week of the Restless and week of Prom for many of us.
1) A small end hail event and poss splashes of the frost on elevated places of grass of crops Monday Night.
2) A cooler and ncier Tuesday/Wed comes along
3) Some Thunderstorms are poss Thursday thu Prom Weekend the severity and coverage of the event is unknown and questionable at the time. But could need to be watched for a poss of Heavy Rain and Strong to Severe storms.
1) A small end hail event and poss splashes of the frost on elevated places of grass of crops Monday Night.
2) A cooler and ncier Tuesday/Wed comes along
3) Some Thunderstorms are poss Thursday thu Prom Weekend the severity and coverage of the event is unknown and questionable at the time. But could need to be watched for a poss of Heavy Rain and Strong to Severe storms.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Storms to end the Calm
Been a calm relaxing week. Chilling and walking and chilling outside. Anyway thunderstorm very isolated and should be non-severe will be poss tonight and early tomm morning.
All of West KY should of hit into the 80's or 80ish these past few days it been quite enjoyable out there.
As a slow moving cold front approaches Tomm Night and Sat it could trigger a series of severe storms.
Right now the best threat is from US 45 west and along the Ohio River ocunties of West KY but everyone stands a shot at a hailer. Mapye dependingo n shear questions and how tihngs go isolated tornadoes/wind may be poss.
All of West KY should of hit into the 80's or 80ish these past few days it been quite enjoyable out there.
As a slow moving cold front approaches Tomm Night and Sat it could trigger a series of severe storms.
Right now the best threat is from US 45 west and along the Ohio River ocunties of West KY but everyone stands a shot at a hailer. Mapye dependingo n shear questions and how tihngs go isolated tornadoes/wind may be poss.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Earthquake Link
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/US2/37.39.-89.-87_eqs.php
Check out the 5.2, 4.6 and all of the aftershocks.
Check out the 5.2, 4.6 and all of the aftershocks.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Earthquakes Shake Me
A 4.5 and 5.2 Earthquake hit. The 5.2 that hit at 4:30am was felt all across West Ky. and as far south as Alabama and Georgia. The 2nd one was felt across West KY. Minor damage was done in Epicenter which was West Salem and Mt. Carmel IL in SE IL. More details when I get doen eating and all that.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Archive of High Risk on 4/16/98
This is from the SPC archive on High Risk archives page right here is the link. http://web.archive.org/web/20070208162720/sphs.angeltowns.net/index.html
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 161531
MKC AC 161531
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.
VALID 161500Z - 171200Z
REF WW NUMBER 0226...VALID TIL 0180Z
REF WW NUMBER 0228...VALID TIL 0210Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN/AL/MS/ERN AR AND
EXTREME NW GA. THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PBF 30 NNE MEM 40 ENE DYR 30 NE BNA 35 NNE CSV 40 N TYS
10 E TYS 25 E CHA 20 WNW RMG 30 SSE HSV CBM 30 SSE GWO 50 E MLU
35 NE MLU 30 E PBF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PSB 35 W ABE TTN ACY 10 ENE WAL 10 E ORF 20 NNE RWI
25 SE CLT CSG 50 NNE MOB LFT 30 SW POE 25 ESE GGG 20 SSE TXK
20 W JBR PAH 25 NE EVV IND 30 SE SBN 15 SSW GRR 15 N LAN 25 E TOL
20 NW YNG PIT LBE 20 SE PSB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 45 S LFK
20 NW LFK 15 W GGG 25 WNW TXK 55 SE HRO CGI 25 SSW HUF 25 NNW LAF
CGX 20 WNW MKE 25 NNE GRB 25 E PLN ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 15 N BID
...CONT... 25 SSW MYR 25 SW SAV VLD AQQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 E 3HT
55 NNW CPR FCL 45 WSW CAO 25 SE LVS 25 SE GNT 40 SE E03 25 E PRC
25 NE IGM 20 ENE LAS 50 E TPH U31 15 NE WMC 45 E BNO 35 NNW 63S.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLY FAST WSW FLOW CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. UPPER TROF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO SRN ONTARIO...AS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS NE INTO WRN NY/PA.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MS VALLEY TROF EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN
PORTION MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. E/W-
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG IT LATER TODAY.
...TN VALLEY...
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS FEATURE REMAINS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FAST WSW JET ALOFT.
SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER E TX AT THE MOMENT. CONTINUED ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE UVV AND
SEVERE THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. PRESENCE
OF COMPARATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12/
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL BE OFFSET BY INFLUX OF VERY RICH
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. THREAT WILL BE
HIGH FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
FARTHER N...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH UPLIFT ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF ERN IND/OH/LWR MI. UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE HEATING INVOF SURFACE LOW AS NEWD-MOVING COOL POOL
ROTATES NEWD ON N SIDE OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER JET.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE MOMENT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ENCOUNTERS REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..CORFIDI.. 04/16/98
NNNN
ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000
ACUS1 KMKC 161531
MKC AC 161531
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.
VALID 161500Z - 171200Z
REF WW NUMBER 0226...VALID TIL 0180Z
REF WW NUMBER 0228...VALID TIL 0210Z
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TN/AL/MS/ERN AR AND
EXTREME NW GA. THIS AREA LIES TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 E PBF 30 NNE MEM 40 ENE DYR 30 NE BNA 35 NNE CSV 40 N TYS
10 E TYS 25 E CHA 20 WNW RMG 30 SSE HSV CBM 30 SSE GWO 50 E MLU
35 NE MLU 30 E PBF.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PSB 35 W ABE TTN ACY 10 ENE WAL 10 E ORF 20 NNE RWI
25 SE CLT CSG 50 NNE MOB LFT 30 SW POE 25 ESE GGG 20 SSE TXK
20 W JBR PAH 25 NE EVV IND 30 SE SBN 15 SSW GRR 15 N LAN 25 E TOL
20 NW YNG PIT LBE 20 SE PSB.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 45 S LFK
20 NW LFK 15 W GGG 25 WNW TXK 55 SE HRO CGI 25 SSW HUF 25 NNW LAF
CGX 20 WNW MKE 25 NNE GRB 25 E PLN ...CONT... 25 NE PBG 15 N BID
...CONT... 25 SSW MYR 25 SW SAV VLD AQQ.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW CTB 25 E 3HT
55 NNW CPR FCL 45 WSW CAO 25 SE LVS 25 SE GNT 40 SE E03 25 E PRC
25 NE IGM 20 ENE LAS 50 E TPH U31 15 NE WMC 45 E BNO 35 NNW 63S.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEASONABLY FAST WSW FLOW CONTINUING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES. UPPER TROF OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO SRN ONTARIO...AS ASSOCIATED
BAND OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SWEEPS NE INTO WRN NY/PA.
AT THE SURFACE...FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MS VALLEY TROF EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING SRN
PORTION MOVES MORE SLOWLY ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST STATES. E/W-
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY DRIFT
ONLY SLOWLY ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD...REINFORCED BY REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ALONG IT LATER TODAY.
...TN VALLEY...
EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS FOCUS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
AS FEATURE REMAINS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FAST WSW JET ALOFT.
SATELLITE AND RAOB DATA SHOW PRESENCE OF HIGH-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF
OVER E TX AT THE MOMENT. CONTINUED ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
...COUPLED WITH SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE UVV AND
SEVERE THREAT ALONG BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. PRESENCE
OF COMPARATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND MINUS 12/
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS WILL BE OFFSET BY INFLUX OF VERY RICH
GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. THREAT WILL BE
HIGH FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
FARTHER N...WARM ADVECTION ABOVE COOL DOME ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH UPLIFT ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SUGGESTS CONTINUED THREAT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE
OVER PARTS OF ERN IND/OH/LWR MI. UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL ALLOW
FOR SURFACE HEATING INVOF SURFACE LOW AS NEWD-MOVING COOL POOL
ROTATES NEWD ON N SIDE OF MID MS VALLEY UPPER JET.
...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THE MOMENT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW ENCOUNTERS REGION OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
RELATIVELY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND FAST FLOW ALOFT SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
..CORFIDI.. 04/16/98
NNNN
Updates on 10 yr 4/16/1998
On the left side of stories is 4/16/98 10yr stories on Talk and TN weather zone. Some of my links from my space blog are disabled because they mistaked then for spam but they are good links one was High Risk of that day which I will copy and paste here. The stories are great and gald that they are shared. Also a video on News Channel 5 and on You Tube search Nashville Tornado of 1998 and view the video of the Mid TN tornadoes on that faitful day luckliiy limited amount of fats. occured. Something that couldnt be said about 4/7/06, and 2/5/08
April 16th
April 16th a day of two main events that effected lives in one event worldwide. The Main purpose of the blog is talk about the weather event that struck Middle Tennessee and other states around the South and Midwest. You cant really talk about this date without giving a feeling about what occured a year ago today.
Not to go into too much I dont know about. Tomm April 16th is a day of mourning for the Virginia Tech victims in the terrible tragey of the Virginia Tech shootings. This is the worst and biggest spree murders in US history. So take that into consideration and take a moment of slience
The Weather Aspect.
Tomm it seems like yesterday hearing reports about how downtown Nashville took an direct hit from a tornado. Hearing that 7 people lost thier lives and over 125 million dollars of damage was down across the Voulnteer State. You may remeber News Channel 5 coverage of the tornado as they got knock off the air as the tornado passed thu the station. Hearing what is today the TN Titans and hearing cranes blew down. Hearing over 35 buildings being red tagged meaning inhabitatble and unstable to live in. Or hearing about a F5 something you mean of heard in the plains only, but cant believe it is down in Tenneesee. A F5 tornado is the highest tornado rating of the Fujita Scale, and even when it turned into the revised EF Scale. Also more tornadoes hit Mid TN excpet the forgotten F5 and 3 Nashville area twisters. Including tornadoes that hit Adams, Byrdstown, Tidewell in Mid TN.
Tornadoes
NASHVILLE TORNADOES
A long tracked supercell formed into Davidson COunty. The cell dropped what News Channel 5 wants to look for first a wall cloud. Outside 5 studios the wall cloud isnt all that is found. The actual tornado was observed by News Channel 5. The 1st of 3 tornadoes did the most damage it was rated at F3 several buildings in Nashville were damaged and destroyed and inhibitable. The tornado first otuched down on Old Hickory Blvd in Belleve area in Sw Davidson county went thu Belle Meade area whichi t started to gain stength went on US 431 or Hillsburo Pike just passing north of Green Hills Mall went thu Sevier Park thu the state fairgrounds area damaging and disabling 3 out of 10 cranes in the TN oilers stadium. It destryoed and red tagged a bar and caused on fatality with a ROTC student in Centenial Park was praticing when a tree fell on him. It moved thu DOnelson and the Hermitage estate where half tress were uprotted including ones over 200 yrs old osme our 7th president planted. A massive replanting effort was done and went thu Wilson and Trousdale counties and damging business in Mount Juilet.
Two F2 tornados touched down. One touched down on in Harding Pike area. ANother long tracked tornado F2 went south of Nashville in Airport. in Hermitage and into NW side of Lebanon.
It was one of the few times a big city got hit by a tornado.
FORGOTTEN LAWRENCE COUNTY F5
This was a very long tracked tornado. In which a sig on radar was that of a classic hook echo at the bottom. This image can be viewed in the links area. This tornado tracked soth of Clifton to SE of Waynesburo into Lawrence and Giles and Maury county. Damage was in the millions in all 4 counties. Wayne County damage was 4 million and sadly the 3 fats in this tornado were all in Wayne County. Homes got cleared off thier foundation and lumber yard was destryoed and so was several homes and moblie homes.
The section that made history in Lawrence County the tornado went up to the strongest ever an F5. Fine and well protected homes some of brick structures were complety leveled and destroyed. Grass was sucked out of the ground vechiles like sedans got lunged nad thrown for yards on in. Sedans and other vechiles were used as missles. The quick response and warning system helped saved lifes. Dirt was stripped to bare earth from the ground. In NW gGles COunty Gas tanks were ruptured and an handful of homes and mblie homes were complety destroyed. Finally the tornado moved into Maury COunty to Culleola-TIce Town area. IT was weaker that in was previsouly but still a very nasty and respectable tornado. 18-wheller was blown over homes heavily damaged.
OTHER EVENTS (tornadoes, hail, wind)
- A F3 tornado destroyed over 60 homes and busineess and moblie homes in Byrdstown TN (pickett county) 4 injuries but were ok. This occured around 4:45pm after the 3 Nashville Tornadoes
- A F3 tornado struck Dickson COunty TN early in the morning. At around 6:50am near Tidwell community 40 homes and moblie homes recieved some degree of damaged. Dickson Convection Center/Flea Port US lost a wall/roof/
-A F3 tornado hit Montoermy/Robertson county area. In Port Royal/Adams TN area. Roof was blown of JO Byrns school in Adams and home damaged in Prot Royal/Adams area this was another early morning tornadoes.
In West KY flash flooding and river flooding issues had to be dealt with. A downburst of 100 mile an hour winds hit Hopkinsville KY area. This storm formed golf ball sized hail in Todd County then produced a mega hailstorm in Lewisburg/Bowling Green Area and the start of an deadly F3 tornado across SOuth Central KY.
Basebail sized hail fell in Ashland City TN and was reported to do some damage to homes.
LESSONS
1) Good TV Mets will try and give best coverage poss. (ex: Ron Howdes from News Channel 5 got the station back as soon as poss and tracked on intellcast the F5 Tornado in Lawrence COunty.
2) Violent tornadoes aren't jsut Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas things. They occur in other states to including Kentucky and Tennessee. Several F4/F5 tornadoes have occured in the Dixie Alley area in the past several decades.
3) You must be on your toes on these types of days. Warnings will fly out quickly and you must respond. The Forgotten TN F5 could of been a lot of worse had the people hadn;t taken cover from it .
4) Big one how matter how small or big your town is it can get hit by a tornado. Jst becuase Nashville is a big city doesnt mean tornadoes avoid it. BIg citites and MEtropolitan areas can and in a few tiems have been know to take hits from tornadoes.
5) ANy myth should of been debunked. Byrdstown TN is higher in elevation than most of Mid TN but it still got hit. East TN locations got hit. So elevation or special river of lake doesnt protect you from a tornado.
2 questions 4/16/1998 10 yr anniversery quiz answers at bottom dont cheat
1) Which Tn town of city did not get hit on 4/16/1998 A) Nashville B) Byrdstown C) Cookeville D) Cleveland
2) Which of following is false about 4/16/98 A) There was limited instablity B) It was a High Risk day C) Tornadoes occured in IL on previous day D) AN F5 occured in TN
LINKS:
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340667
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340657
http://web.archive.org/web/20070429224632/www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/nash_tor.htm
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340654
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340602
http://web.archive.org/web/20061231093237/sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchive/highrisk/past/041698otlk.html
http://web.archive.org/web/20070217035745/www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/research/f5.htm
http://www.news2wkrn.com/weather/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HBMOuMWzM0...feature=related
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340660
answers are A,C
Not to go into too much I dont know about. Tomm April 16th is a day of mourning for the Virginia Tech victims in the terrible tragey of the Virginia Tech shootings. This is the worst and biggest spree murders in US history. So take that into consideration and take a moment of slience
The Weather Aspect.
Tomm it seems like yesterday hearing reports about how downtown Nashville took an direct hit from a tornado. Hearing that 7 people lost thier lives and over 125 million dollars of damage was down across the Voulnteer State. You may remeber News Channel 5 coverage of the tornado as they got knock off the air as the tornado passed thu the station. Hearing what is today the TN Titans and hearing cranes blew down. Hearing over 35 buildings being red tagged meaning inhabitatble and unstable to live in. Or hearing about a F5 something you mean of heard in the plains only, but cant believe it is down in Tenneesee. A F5 tornado is the highest tornado rating of the Fujita Scale, and even when it turned into the revised EF Scale. Also more tornadoes hit Mid TN excpet the forgotten F5 and 3 Nashville area twisters. Including tornadoes that hit Adams, Byrdstown, Tidewell in Mid TN.
Tornadoes
NASHVILLE TORNADOES
A long tracked supercell formed into Davidson COunty. The cell dropped what News Channel 5 wants to look for first a wall cloud. Outside 5 studios the wall cloud isnt all that is found. The actual tornado was observed by News Channel 5. The 1st of 3 tornadoes did the most damage it was rated at F3 several buildings in Nashville were damaged and destroyed and inhibitable. The tornado first otuched down on Old Hickory Blvd in Belleve area in Sw Davidson county went thu Belle Meade area whichi t started to gain stength went on US 431 or Hillsburo Pike just passing north of Green Hills Mall went thu Sevier Park thu the state fairgrounds area damaging and disabling 3 out of 10 cranes in the TN oilers stadium. It destryoed and red tagged a bar and caused on fatality with a ROTC student in Centenial Park was praticing when a tree fell on him. It moved thu DOnelson and the Hermitage estate where half tress were uprotted including ones over 200 yrs old osme our 7th president planted. A massive replanting effort was done and went thu Wilson and Trousdale counties and damging business in Mount Juilet.
Two F2 tornados touched down. One touched down on in Harding Pike area. ANother long tracked tornado F2 went south of Nashville in Airport. in Hermitage and into NW side of Lebanon.
It was one of the few times a big city got hit by a tornado.
FORGOTTEN LAWRENCE COUNTY F5
This was a very long tracked tornado. In which a sig on radar was that of a classic hook echo at the bottom. This image can be viewed in the links area. This tornado tracked soth of Clifton to SE of Waynesburo into Lawrence and Giles and Maury county. Damage was in the millions in all 4 counties. Wayne County damage was 4 million and sadly the 3 fats in this tornado were all in Wayne County. Homes got cleared off thier foundation and lumber yard was destryoed and so was several homes and moblie homes.
The section that made history in Lawrence County the tornado went up to the strongest ever an F5. Fine and well protected homes some of brick structures were complety leveled and destroyed. Grass was sucked out of the ground vechiles like sedans got lunged nad thrown for yards on in. Sedans and other vechiles were used as missles. The quick response and warning system helped saved lifes. Dirt was stripped to bare earth from the ground. In NW gGles COunty Gas tanks were ruptured and an handful of homes and mblie homes were complety destroyed. Finally the tornado moved into Maury COunty to Culleola-TIce Town area. IT was weaker that in was previsouly but still a very nasty and respectable tornado. 18-wheller was blown over homes heavily damaged.
OTHER EVENTS (tornadoes, hail, wind)
- A F3 tornado destroyed over 60 homes and busineess and moblie homes in Byrdstown TN (pickett county) 4 injuries but were ok. This occured around 4:45pm after the 3 Nashville Tornadoes
- A F3 tornado struck Dickson COunty TN early in the morning. At around 6:50am near Tidwell community 40 homes and moblie homes recieved some degree of damaged. Dickson Convection Center/Flea Port US lost a wall/roof/
-A F3 tornado hit Montoermy/Robertson county area. In Port Royal/Adams TN area. Roof was blown of JO Byrns school in Adams and home damaged in Prot Royal/Adams area this was another early morning tornadoes.
In West KY flash flooding and river flooding issues had to be dealt with. A downburst of 100 mile an hour winds hit Hopkinsville KY area. This storm formed golf ball sized hail in Todd County then produced a mega hailstorm in Lewisburg/Bowling Green Area and the start of an deadly F3 tornado across SOuth Central KY.
Basebail sized hail fell in Ashland City TN and was reported to do some damage to homes.
LESSONS
1) Good TV Mets will try and give best coverage poss. (ex: Ron Howdes from News Channel 5 got the station back as soon as poss and tracked on intellcast the F5 Tornado in Lawrence COunty.
2) Violent tornadoes aren't jsut Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas things. They occur in other states to including Kentucky and Tennessee. Several F4/F5 tornadoes have occured in the Dixie Alley area in the past several decades.
3) You must be on your toes on these types of days. Warnings will fly out quickly and you must respond. The Forgotten TN F5 could of been a lot of worse had the people hadn;t taken cover from it .
4) Big one how matter how small or big your town is it can get hit by a tornado. Jst becuase Nashville is a big city doesnt mean tornadoes avoid it. BIg citites and MEtropolitan areas can and in a few tiems have been know to take hits from tornadoes.
5) ANy myth should of been debunked. Byrdstown TN is higher in elevation than most of Mid TN but it still got hit. East TN locations got hit. So elevation or special river of lake doesnt protect you from a tornado.
2 questions 4/16/1998 10 yr anniversery quiz answers at bottom dont cheat
1) Which Tn town of city did not get hit on 4/16/1998 A) Nashville B) Byrdstown C) Cookeville D) Cleveland
2) Which of following is false about 4/16/98 A) There was limited instablity B) It was a High Risk day C) Tornadoes occured in IL on previous day D) AN F5 occured in TN
LINKS:
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340667
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340657
http://web.archive.org/web/20070429224632/www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/nash_tor.htm
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340654
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340602
http://web.archive.org/web/20061231093237/sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchive/highrisk/past/041698otlk.html
http://web.archive.org/web/20070217035745/www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/research/f5.htm
http://www.news2wkrn.com/weather/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HBMOuMWzM0...feature=related
http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~ShowEvent~340660
answers are A,C
Monday, April 14, 2008
Freeze Dem Out
A event that could be of sig. The 2008 Dogwood WInter Freeze. We told you that for tonight and to a lesser extent tomm night it Dogwood Winter. Tomm should hit 59/60 across West KY. Wed. thu the weekend it is all normal April Spring. Lows tonight in the 28-30 range will cause a freeze event. Paduach average freeze is Apr. 7th, Nashville Apr. 8th. so this is a week late.
River Flooding mostly Minor to Moderate flooding is occuring along the Green and Ohio RIvers in West KY. So if any county roads are covered stay out of the putrid cold water.
River Flooding mostly Minor to Moderate flooding is occuring along the Green and Ohio RIvers in West KY. So if any county roads are covered stay out of the putrid cold water.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Back in 2004
A very late season snowstorm struck West KY. A Muhlenburg county reporter measured the storm total 4.7 inches. Central CIty Ky recieved 3 inches of snowfall parts of plants and spring bulbs immediatly went under snowcover as images if spring flowers deep within the snow became real esp east of Lakes and From Mayfield to Murray KY South. In Camden TN area 6 inches of snow fell. Powerlines were down in Central City and Hopkinsville KY. Most areas effected recieved 1 to 6 inches of wet snow that fell so heavily despite being above freezing it stuck to the ground in pretty neat fashion.
Also I got to have a snowball fight on the way home to school snowball fights were occuring all along the bus routes it was a fun site to behold.
Also I got to have a snowball fight on the way home to school snowball fights were occuring all along the bus routes it was a fun site to behold.
NWS ISSUED FREEZE WATCH
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY134 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2008ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-140930-/O.NEW.KPAH.FZ.A.0001.080415T0600Z-080415T1200Z/JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID134 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2008...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FREEZEWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING.LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TOLOWER 30S. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.$$
Saturday, April 12, 2008
DogWood Winter is coming
http://kccserv1. estb. wku. edu/climate/
^^ Cool KY SIte
Quote from the above site on Dogwood Winter
"Dogwood Winter is a cold spell that occurs after spring seems to have arrived (in Kentucky, usually mid April) and while the dogwood trees are in bloom. In the northern parts of Kentucky or where dogwoods are uncommon, it may be called locust winter for the tree that blooms at about the same time. The climate lore name recognizes the return of a continental polar air mass of sufficient severity to feel like winter again."
We are about to have a round of dogwood winter. Also there is a possibity of a SIG. Frost and Freeze event across West KY and Middle TN. Stay tuned. Keep gardens and premature bulbs covered up. There are also tips to prevent the crops from recieving excessive damage to in this event. Low's we drop into the low to mid 30's in many areas. Snow flurries are poss tonight and early tomm. This will occur tonight, tomm night, mon night, and even chilly tuesday night. Tommorow Night and Monday Night are the big ones. Wedensday the temp will jump 25 to 30 degrees in 6 to 8 hours into the low 70's for highs ending DogWood Winter.
^^ Cool KY SIte
Quote from the above site on Dogwood Winter
"Dogwood Winter is a cold spell that occurs after spring seems to have arrived (in Kentucky, usually mid April) and while the dogwood trees are in bloom. In the northern parts of Kentucky or where dogwoods are uncommon, it may be called locust winter for the tree that blooms at about the same time. The climate lore name recognizes the return of a continental polar air mass of sufficient severity to feel like winter again."
We are about to have a round of dogwood winter. Also there is a possibity of a SIG. Frost and Freeze event across West KY and Middle TN. Stay tuned. Keep gardens and premature bulbs covered up. There are also tips to prevent the crops from recieving excessive damage to in this event. Low's we drop into the low to mid 30's in many areas. Snow flurries are poss tonight and early tomm. This will occur tonight, tomm night, mon night, and even chilly tuesday night. Tommorow Night and Monday Night are the big ones. Wedensday the temp will jump 25 to 30 degrees in 6 to 8 hours into the low 70's for highs ending DogWood Winter.
Busted Severe event for West KY 22
The severe event busted in West KY 22. It is very complicated but CAP a warm layer of air prevented development in the afternoon. The biggest problem in my mind was the Shear was so great that it chopped up the storm tops before they could become perfectly organized. This is the big reason why this event didnt live up to the hype in West KY.
A tad bit less shear but still very good shear, and a perfect combo of the other 3 parameters set up a Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak in Mid TN where an EF-3 tornado hit Lawrence and Giles county TN damaging upwards to 60 homes and destroying a few. Poss tornadic damage occured in Dickson and Warren COunty TN also and severe other severe reports occured in Mid Tn. Also an isolated tornado, big hail, damaging winds occured in parts of the Louisville and Jackson KY CWA
A tad bit less shear but still very good shear, and a perfect combo of the other 3 parameters set up a Severe Thunderstorm Outbreak in Mid TN where an EF-3 tornado hit Lawrence and Giles county TN damaging upwards to 60 homes and destroying a few. Poss tornadic damage occured in Dickson and Warren COunty TN also and severe other severe reports occured in Mid Tn. Also an isolated tornado, big hail, damaging winds occured in parts of the Louisville and Jackson KY CWA
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Tornado Watch till 11pm all of West KY
SEL3URGENT -
IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 193NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL1100 PM CDT.TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WINDGUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESEAREAS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF EVANSVILLEINDIANA TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA.PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192...DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL TRACK EASTWARDTHIS EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCINGMAY WEAKEN CAPPING INVERSION SUFFICIENTLY TO AID IN CONVECTIVEINTENSIFICATION AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.EXTREMELY STRONG LOWLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FORTORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGERSTORMS.AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES.EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 193NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHWEST INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 505 PM UNTIL1100 PM CDT.TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WINDGUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESEAREAS.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF EVANSVILLEINDIANA TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA.PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 190...WW 191...WW 192...DISCUSSION...LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE MS RIVER WILL TRACK EASTWARDTHIS EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCINGMAY WEAKEN CAPPING INVERSION SUFFICIENTLY TO AID IN CONVECTIVEINTENSIFICATION AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.EXTREMELY STRONG LOWLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FORTORNADOES...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGERSTORMS.AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES.EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22035.
Unstable SPringBreakers
Unsatble air with southern winds and temps in the 80's is moving in. SUn sohuld also be poping out. Dewpoints will amke it to the well into the 60's
A poss sig and a few long tracked supercells will be possible.
A poss sig and a few long tracked supercells will be possible.
Tornado Watch remains till 5pm
KYC007-039-055-075-083-105-139-145-102200- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0190.080410T1450Z-080410T2200Z/
KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD
CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN
FULTON
GRAVES
HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
Breaks in precip are occuring. One thing that may temper supercell production is the cloudcover and cap. Even with the great shear and dynamics. Tornadoes some storng and widespread damaging winds and hail remain possible.
KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD
CARLISLE
CRITTENDEN
FULTON
GRAVES
HICKMAN
LIVINGSTON
MCCRACKEN
Breaks in precip are occuring. One thing that may temper supercell production is the cloudcover and cap. Even with the great shear and dynamics. Tornadoes some storng and widespread damaging winds and hail remain possible.
MDT risk West KY
There is a MDT risk for Day 1 for West KY.
Tornadoes and Damaging widns arel isted as amin poss threats,
Tornadoes and Damaging widns arel isted as amin poss threats,
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Springbrekaers Update
Slower system has more worries along iwth pot of more nighttime tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. ALso sig hail. Slowness of system emans more at night. Still a very sig and poss life threatning risk. Maype slighty trending more damaging winds along with tornadoes. An isolated wicked supercell is poss as early as late afternoon.
SPringbreakers Screaming Again
The Darker more puprelish blue is if SPC issues a High Risk will it would most likely be. That area from Lake Barkley Lodge from Marion KY west may be ground zero and get of the worst of this not only in West KY but the entire nation. All of West KY is in the threat and areas east of the line are pretty much just look nearly as bad as Jackson Purchase area does. Nocturnal jet could actually make storms stronger so that is a threat to watch as we go.Severe wx and poss Tornadoes are possible. In pot several rounds of squall lines and supercells 3 to 4.Timing of each is uncertain most should effect West KY and at least Western Half of Mid TN if not all of it.
Tornadoes some could be significant EF-3 plus, Hail up to 4 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 125 MPH is poss across West KY and NW Mid TN.An Friday afternoon threat is poss from US 41 east and in Mid TN.
Not as sig as Thursday and Thurs Night/Fri morning threat damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear poss with this.Stay tuned to news, weather, and all forecasts for more details and poss watches or warnings.
Sprignbreakers Final Screams
Severe wx and poss Tornadoes are possiblie.
In pot several rounds of squall lines and supercells 3 to 4.Timing of each is uncertain msot souhld effect West KY and at least Western Half of Mid TN if not all of it.
Tornadoes some could be siginfacnt EF-3 plus, Hail up to 4 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 125 MPH is poss across West KY and NW Mid TN.An Friday afternoon threat is poss from US 41 east and in Mid TN.
Not as sig as Thursday and Thurs Night/Fri morning threat damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear poss with this.Stay tuned to news, weather, and all forecasts for more details and poss watches or warnings.
In pot several rounds of squall lines and supercells 3 to 4.Timing of each is uncertain msot souhld effect West KY and at least Western Half of Mid TN if not all of it.
Tornadoes some could be siginfacnt EF-3 plus, Hail up to 4 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 125 MPH is poss across West KY and NW Mid TN.An Friday afternoon threat is poss from US 41 east and in Mid TN.
Not as sig as Thursday and Thurs Night/Fri morning threat damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear poss with this.Stay tuned to news, weather, and all forecasts for more details and poss watches or warnings.
StiLL JusT as SiG.
Most def still just as sig. Great winds and LLJ along with instability, lift, and moisture look good. The only con is cloudcover and precip may hurt us. Cloudcover may temper the threat somewhat but with this shear unlike TUesday it will not def even come close to trying to cancel the threat.
SUpercells will be poss. They will organize into a derecho that moves across West KY from 10pm-4am maype since i am starting to buy slower soultions maype more 4am-10am. Supercells should start around Fulton/ Mayfield around 4-5pm and continue. Isolated hailers may be poss overnight tonight and early tomm morning.
The GREATEST THREAT AREA IS JACKSON PURCHASE: including Ballard, Mccracken, Marshall, Calloway, Carlisie, Fulton, Hickman, and Graves counties. This looks to be a HIGH RISK type day here at least one EF-3 - EF-5 may be possible.
A Great threat exists across the Rest of West KY: A Strong tornado may be possible here mayype not quite as bad as far west KY
IN ALL WEST KY 22
- Damaging winds widespread 70-80 mph winds with local wind gusts up to 125 MPH
- Strong Tornadoes a super cell could be capable of an EF-3 + tornado ( Jackson Purchase looks like Ground Zero)
- Large Hail poss up to the size of Softballs in the strongest supercell.
Threat looks like most sig timeframe for West KY 22 is 5pm Thursday thu 4am Friday.
The threat should also be in at least NW Mid TN during this time and shift into Mid TN and last poss until late afternoon/early evening. Middle TN threat not quite as bad as West KY but could be bad though in some areas.
SUpercells will be poss. They will organize into a derecho that moves across West KY from 10pm-4am maype since i am starting to buy slower soultions maype more 4am-10am. Supercells should start around Fulton/ Mayfield around 4-5pm and continue. Isolated hailers may be poss overnight tonight and early tomm morning.
The GREATEST THREAT AREA IS JACKSON PURCHASE: including Ballard, Mccracken, Marshall, Calloway, Carlisie, Fulton, Hickman, and Graves counties. This looks to be a HIGH RISK type day here at least one EF-3 - EF-5 may be possible.
A Great threat exists across the Rest of West KY: A Strong tornado may be possible here mayype not quite as bad as far west KY
IN ALL WEST KY 22
- Damaging winds widespread 70-80 mph winds with local wind gusts up to 125 MPH
- Strong Tornadoes a super cell could be capable of an EF-3 + tornado ( Jackson Purchase looks like Ground Zero)
- Large Hail poss up to the size of Softballs in the strongest supercell.
Threat looks like most sig timeframe for West KY 22 is 5pm Thursday thu 4am Friday.
The threat should also be in at least NW Mid TN during this time and shift into Mid TN and last poss until late afternoon/early evening. Middle TN threat not quite as bad as West KY but could be bad though in some areas.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Run DOwn Springbrekaers Thursday
Sorry if you cant read it but Tornadoes long tracked, Thunderstorm WInds in excess of 125 MPH is poss in bows, RFD of Supercells, and Derecho forming Thurs Night-Midday Friday timeframe. Classic supercells will allow for plains type supercells producing hail 3 to 5 inches in diameter and long track and strong to poss violent tornadoes cant be ruled out. It appears the West KY 22 should poss recieve a few tornadoes a few may be of high ranking.
Flooding is a big issue some storms oculd produce an inch to and inch in a half an hour. Cause pot for flash flooding river flooding is big two.
NW MID TN will also run the risk of seeing Sig Tornadoes and all the other threats listed. A decent squall/line derecho and poss supercells should move across all of Mid TN Thurs Night and Fri with tornaodes, wind , hail poss
Springbreaks Adventure Log #1
Friday outlook could be inaccurate there is my big threat
My thursday outlook
My thursday outlook
Tuesday has dimished moisture retunr and expected sun ruined everything.
MDT risk is IN effect for Day 3 Thursday
- Long tracked tornadoes/supercells are possible
- A lot better isntablity is forecasted
- Cloudcover is an issue the only issue
- Low is expected to be a extremly strong 982-990mb range.
- Severe wx poss from SOuthern WI to Mi and poss Southern ON to the Deep South. West Ky will be centerstage
- Squall Line and Derechos can produce Damaging WInds up towards 125 MPH
- I see a pot. High Risk being issued for West KY
THIS IS A FEW DANGEROUS DAYS.
Stay tuned to NEWS, TV, Local Radio
Heed all warnings I will tomm post tornado safety rules to refresh tornado safety rules.
My call maps very exp. This is an amautur forecast and should take place of por. But will maype give a idea on the best threats.
SpringBreakers Thursday Update
A sig. severe weather event is expected across Western KY Thursday thu Midday Friday. As of right now NWS Paduach has mentioned the poss of Long Tracked Supercells producing pot. long tracked tornadoes. With the shear and dynamics being off the chart that is def possibile. The threat in West KY will start along several lines
1) Warm Front- Thoughtout the day the warm front early Thursday will make it's northeast run from OK/ Arkansas towards IL, MO, and yes even West Ky and into TN. SUpercells and poss Training supercells. Which this could be anytime during the day for West KY. This may also actually be one of our biggest chances of supercells out of this system.
2) Shortwaves/Outflows/Warm Sector Storms- The precip in AK, and OK may create outflow boundaries that act out as lift for the next storms. As the boundary layer rapidly destablizes thoughout the afternoon more supercells and possible bow echos esp with the jet streak and the crazy shaer will be poss with the pot of gigantic hail, damaging winds in excess of 100 MPH, and Tornadoes that could be strong and poss long tracked.
3) Cold Front and Main System itself- Looks like first depending on the timing Thurs night-Fri Midday looks good for this time. The storm mode is a pot high end squall line/derecho with damaging winds in excess of 100MPH poss in strongest storms along with hail and tornadoes for any storm in or any supercelluar type system outside the derecho/squall line/quasi linear type system.
The threat for the whole states of KY and TN appears to gets worse as you go from West( being the biggest threat) to East (having a good sized threat but not as sig as West.)
Plus tornado hit areas of Sumner and Macon county TN may get lucky if timing permits and my miss the most sig part of squall line and supercells from west to east. Timing may deterioate the system Thurs Night, and tthe main performance may to off to the east of the area Friday afternoon. Don't ocunt on it though it iwll all depend on timing it does look like there may be a less sig threat lapse somewhere in Mid TN. Also be concerned about noctural jet which may prevent that and the poss of still several pre frontal supercells if they form.
1) Warm Front- Thoughtout the day the warm front early Thursday will make it's northeast run from OK/ Arkansas towards IL, MO, and yes even West Ky and into TN. SUpercells and poss Training supercells. Which this could be anytime during the day for West KY. This may also actually be one of our biggest chances of supercells out of this system.
2) Shortwaves/Outflows/Warm Sector Storms- The precip in AK, and OK may create outflow boundaries that act out as lift for the next storms. As the boundary layer rapidly destablizes thoughout the afternoon more supercells and possible bow echos esp with the jet streak and the crazy shaer will be poss with the pot of gigantic hail, damaging winds in excess of 100 MPH, and Tornadoes that could be strong and poss long tracked.
3) Cold Front and Main System itself- Looks like first depending on the timing Thurs night-Fri Midday looks good for this time. The storm mode is a pot high end squall line/derecho with damaging winds in excess of 100MPH poss in strongest storms along with hail and tornadoes for any storm in or any supercelluar type system outside the derecho/squall line/quasi linear type system.
The threat for the whole states of KY and TN appears to gets worse as you go from West( being the biggest threat) to East (having a good sized threat but not as sig as West.)
Plus tornado hit areas of Sumner and Macon county TN may get lucky if timing permits and my miss the most sig part of squall line and supercells from west to east. Timing may deterioate the system Thurs Night, and tthe main performance may to off to the east of the area Friday afternoon. Don't ocunt on it though it iwll all depend on timing it does look like there may be a less sig threat lapse somewhere in Mid TN. Also be concerned about noctural jet which may prevent that and the poss of still several pre frontal supercells if they form.
SpringBreakers Tuesday Severe update
Cloud cover is widespread across the area. Models have overdone instablity whichi didn't expect. Moisture return which i predicted to be a problem was def a big problem for today. As for now a slight risk exists for west ky Winf/Hail and isolated spinup are poss for any storms that form.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Springbreakers Statement
Spring Time a wonderful time of year. A Time for the Prom and Graduation. You may have dreams of hanging and sippin lemonade in the spring shade as the trees turn green and flowers erupt into bloom. The sun shines bright most of the time and spring rains wash the pollen down the driveway. Pools may start coming up outdoor parties should start occurring. Occasionally a spring snowstorm may intrude and cause flashbacks of the joys of winter mixed with the excitement of spring the season of birth the season of life. Is there anything sinister about this season. What about the laying out in the a blanket or outside playing some ball in temps in the upper 70’s with a refreshing southwest wind and watching the cumulus clods tower into great shapes like towers of white that represent the playfulness of the human race prancing over the red roses the farm crop land the violets and the swimming though the lake not thinking about the stress of normal life. What is wrong with that. Spring is supposed to be a season of life of innocence. Spring is supposed to be the season of innocence. Spring is a pretty thing.
Sometimes
Pretty things can turn Ugly
Turn Ugly
Turn Ugly
Ugly
April 8th, 10th/11th will do just that check out my last few posts on the sunject.
Sometimes
Pretty things can turn Ugly
Turn Ugly
Turn Ugly
Ugly
April 8th, 10th/11th will do just that check out my last few posts on the sunject.
04/08/08 SPringbreakers Rundown
I got 4 pros and 3 cons. The cons may be hard to read. The main con is pot moisture return issues. OTher cons may be the low being too disorganzied and the best dynamics may be in SE MO/ IL/ North AK. I do tihnk West kY should see some decent to good dynamics esp some good lift. Those are pros. OVerall we should see severe wx esp in NW KY. A poss high end slight amype MDT in some areas as hail/winds/isoalted tornadoes/locally heavy rain appear poss.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
SpringBreakers Note
ANother interesting storm for another day. Check tihs outGood site http://www.indianaweatheronline.com/
try that cool link also to left said is Talkweather and TN weather Zone links to some great links on what is going on
A spirng breakers map
This is a good map hard to read text. SLight is 15% wind and 2-10% tornado depending on how close you are to the MDT. Red what I think for West KY soon. Looks like a good precursur event. Tihs for spc has to be a high end slight amype even a MDT.West KY (uses the 25 miels or a few counties radious not os much probablity but threat levle) This is an unprofessal outlook SPC meterologists know mroe stikc to NWS
City Tornado Wind Hail
PAdauch 15%(hatched) 30% 30% (hatched) MDT threat
Henderson/Owensburo 15% (hatched) 30% 30% MDT threat
Hopkinsville 10% 15% 15% SLGT threat
Tuesday storms
A setup is for severe wx for West KY. despite the low being somewhat disorangized the instabilty, lift, moisture, and shear should be all there to give you some severe wx.
As it stands right now lines, clusters, poss supercells all appear possible starting late Tuesday thu wee morning hours of Wedensday.
Right now wind/hail are the big threats, but isolated tornadoes and a few tornado warnings are also poss and must be watched.
Also locally heavy rain is poss and to be watched for any flooding issues. We all know West Kentucky doesnt need any more rain.
This system will also setup for a potenailly even more potent and poss severe/tornado outbreak later on.
Also another flooding event is poss as poss as high as 4-8 inches can fall between Tuesday-Saturday esp rivers flooding may need to be watched which some rivers are in Moderate?Major Flood Stage as it is now
For my defintion MDT may be poss in WEst IN, NW KY, SOuthern IL, SE MO 15% torando (hatched), 30% hail and wind
As it stands right now lines, clusters, poss supercells all appear possible starting late Tuesday thu wee morning hours of Wedensday.
Right now wind/hail are the big threats, but isolated tornadoes and a few tornado warnings are also poss and must be watched.
Also locally heavy rain is poss and to be watched for any flooding issues. We all know West Kentucky doesnt need any more rain.
This system will also setup for a potenailly even more potent and poss severe/tornado outbreak later on.
Also another flooding event is poss as poss as high as 4-8 inches can fall between Tuesday-Saturday esp rivers flooding may need to be watched which some rivers are in Moderate?Major Flood Stage as it is now
For my defintion MDT may be poss in WEst IN, NW KY, SOuthern IL, SE MO 15% torando (hatched), 30% hail and wind
10 years the great April 1998
April 3rd 1998- Friday a great day to get off esp if you spring break. This was a day for everyone to get excited and get that good week of spring break off. Severe storms quickly fired in the unstable atmosphere. Most of TN was effected and some hail got up in Trigg and Christian county KY.
APril 8th 1998- It was several years to this date. The time came a day everyone in the Mid and Deep South to remeber. Damaging Winds, F2-F5 tornadoes, Large Hail touched down and wrecked havoc. B-Ham alabama got hit by an f-5 Tornado. Hail and WInd were widespread in West KY. Manchester TN area got hit by a F1 tornado.
April 13th 1998- This was the day before looking at the big 15th/16th tornado outbreak. Severe storms shot up in West KY . Graves County got hit by an F-1 near the Graves County Sheriff post. Hail was up to quarter and golfball hail.
APril 15th/16th 1998- And first timeand only 2nd time to present time this years 10th/11th system will be interesting that somearea of West KY had a High Risk that ngiht and SOuthern part of West KY that day the 16th. The ngihtime event on the 15th didnt quite play out even a supercell proudced F3/F4 tornadoes in NE AK and West TN that night. The 16th was a day to remeber in SOuthern KY and Mid TN not did West Ky have some big time flooding issues. It was a day of the big tornadoes. F3 Nashville tornado and F5 Lawrence County TN tornadoes will be remebered for there impact across Mid Tn. Downbursts, Very LArge Hail was occuring from a very intense supercell moving thu the Hokinsville, Todd county area into Bowling Green it later produced an F3 Tornado of its own.
April 27th and 30th produced isoalted hail and wind across West Ky and areas of TN also.
But 4 systems with tornadic pot hit the area this April 1998 a truely amazing month.
APril 8th 1998- It was several years to this date. The time came a day everyone in the Mid and Deep South to remeber. Damaging Winds, F2-F5 tornadoes, Large Hail touched down and wrecked havoc. B-Ham alabama got hit by an f-5 Tornado. Hail and WInd were widespread in West KY. Manchester TN area got hit by a F1 tornado.
April 13th 1998- This was the day before looking at the big 15th/16th tornado outbreak. Severe storms shot up in West KY . Graves County got hit by an F-1 near the Graves County Sheriff post. Hail was up to quarter and golfball hail.
APril 15th/16th 1998- And first timeand only 2nd time to present time this years 10th/11th system will be interesting that somearea of West KY had a High Risk that ngiht and SOuthern part of West KY that day the 16th. The ngihtime event on the 15th didnt quite play out even a supercell proudced F3/F4 tornadoes in NE AK and West TN that night. The 16th was a day to remeber in SOuthern KY and Mid TN not did West Ky have some big time flooding issues. It was a day of the big tornadoes. F3 Nashville tornado and F5 Lawrence County TN tornadoes will be remebered for there impact across Mid Tn. Downbursts, Very LArge Hail was occuring from a very intense supercell moving thu the Hokinsville, Todd county area into Bowling Green it later produced an F3 Tornado of its own.
April 27th and 30th produced isoalted hail and wind across West Ky and areas of TN also.
But 4 systems with tornadic pot hit the area this April 1998 a truely amazing month.
Spring Break is Rough Maps
The blue is slgiht for APril 9th Wedensday and Green is SLight for April 8th. Tihs APril 8th threat may require a MDT from SPC later on. Due to uncertainites will stick with slight. Wed is very uncertain but too think West KY still has storms on Wedensday with mostly damaging wind threat.
April 8th with some hail/wind/tornado threat.
April 10th and 11th you probably dont want to know
Spring Break is Rough
Several systems look cocked into the West KY area. Short details will be discussed of both. Thurs/Fri system looks very impressive. If models verfly it will be talked about for a long time.
Pre Game- Tues/ Tues Night/Early Wed morningThis system will setup the Friday System. Eastward movement extend the threat to West KY where capes nearing 2000 j/kg and Good shear and lift will be possible to trigger severe storms a few supercells followed by a squall line appears poss. Damaging Winds, Hail and Isolated Tornadoes may be a threat.
Game (Thurs-Fri)Words cant describe how Significant this could become.
Too early to go into details though. A very sig Squall Line/Derecho is poss along with Supercells West KY will be eeffected and poss from a Gulf Coast to SOuthern Mich.Classic outbreak of tornadoes and derecho is possible.
Flash FLooding is poss to very heavy rains poss several inches in a span of hours.
This may change stay tuned for more details on possible severe/floodign events.
Pre Game- Tues/ Tues Night/Early Wed morningThis system will setup the Friday System. Eastward movement extend the threat to West KY where capes nearing 2000 j/kg and Good shear and lift will be possible to trigger severe storms a few supercells followed by a squall line appears poss. Damaging Winds, Hail and Isolated Tornadoes may be a threat.
Game (Thurs-Fri)Words cant describe how Significant this could become.
Too early to go into details though. A very sig Squall Line/Derecho is poss along with Supercells West KY will be eeffected and poss from a Gulf Coast to SOuthern Mich.Classic outbreak of tornadoes and derecho is possible.
Flash FLooding is poss to very heavy rains poss several inches in a span of hours.
This may change stay tuned for more details on possible severe/floodign events.
Friday, April 4, 2008
River Flooding time
The Green River is flooding meanwhile the Ohio River will take a second crest.
MDT flooding on most of the Ohio River from Brookport to Mount Vernon poss. Minor Flooding east of that and Major Flooding in Cairo and Grand Chain.
Watch out for at least MDT flooding along the Green River to crest should come in the Mon Night-Wedensday time frame.
The Ariel flood Warning for areas of NW KY including Madisonville is in effect till tomm morning, still some flooding issues to be had.
MDT flooding on most of the Ohio River from Brookport to Mount Vernon poss. Minor Flooding east of that and Major Flooding in Cairo and Grand Chain.
Watch out for at least MDT flooding along the Green River to crest should come in the Mon Night-Wedensday time frame.
The Ariel flood Warning for areas of NW KY including Madisonville is in effect till tomm morning, still some flooding issues to be had.
NEws 14 Video from Evansville ckeck it out
Flood Warning extended till 6pm for NW KY
http://www.14wfie.com/global/video/popup/pop_player.asp?ClipID1=2354568&h1=Madisonville%20mayor%20blames%20railroad%20for%20flooding&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=59133&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&playerVersion=1&hostPageUrl=http%3A//www.14wfie.com/global/story.asp%3Fs%3D8119232&rnd=60126314
scrool down to see mroe videos of this flood. Entire business section of madisonvilel got flooded
http://www.14wfie.com/global/video/popup/pop_player.asp?ClipID1=2354568&h1=Madisonville%20mayor%20blames%20railroad%20for%20flooding&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=59133&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&playerVersion=1&hostPageUrl=http%3A//www.14wfie.com/global/story.asp%3Fs%3D8119232&rnd=60126314
scrool down to see mroe videos of this flood. Entire business section of madisonvilel got flooded
Rainy results 4/4/08
Here lies a big map. ITt shows swaths of 3-6 icnhes in West KY. The red colors represent where the 4, 5 and even 6 inch amounts are located. Which agrees with the 3-7 inch rain reports in most of West KY.
School which was suppsoed to be in session in Webster and Hopkins countys was cancelled and Mclean county delayed.
Hopkins, Webster, Mclean, Daviess, Livingston, Crittenden counties seemed to get the worst of the flooding reports in West KY.
Several streets across Madisonville and Owensburo and Marion and a good deal of West KY (esp NW KY) still remain flooded but with A chance of rain and thudnerstorms today not that great even with clouds it will take awhile for the ariel flooding to seize
Then after that the River Flood threat will continue with pot of a second much bigger crest.
Flood Warnings remain in effect for NW KY till Noon and the River Flood Warnings are out.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
3 ft of water in Livignston COunty
Reprots are coming in it is bad.Major flooding is occuring north of a Smithland to Dawson Spring to Lewisburg Ky line.Some reports include:
Owensburo: Major flash flooding of city streeets( Jansen Report)
Madisonville: Flooding of the mall/business district and country club
Muhlenburg County: Flooding of soem roads
Marion: State highways and city is starting to flood, familys having to leave thier homes
Livingston County: 3 feet of water flooding of homes has begun
2-4 inches has fallen in the area with local 4-5 inch amounts since today.
2-4 inches may fall again in this area being total amounts locally 6 to 10.
With 3 to 6 icnhes for the rest of West KY and 1 to 4 in the rest of Mid TN.Severe wx isnt totally dead a strongly worder and venable T-storm Watch is in effect for Paris Tn and areas to the west.
Graves, FUlton, Calloway, Hickman counties in West Ky may get involved in the severe to.
Owensburo: Major flash flooding of city streeets( Jansen Report)
Madisonville: Flooding of the mall/business district and country club
Muhlenburg County: Flooding of soem roads
Marion: State highways and city is starting to flood, familys having to leave thier homes
Livingston County: 3 feet of water flooding of homes has begun
2-4 inches has fallen in the area with local 4-5 inch amounts since today.
2-4 inches may fall again in this area being total amounts locally 6 to 10.
With 3 to 6 icnhes for the rest of West KY and 1 to 4 in the rest of Mid TN.Severe wx isnt totally dead a strongly worder and venable T-storm Watch is in effect for Paris Tn and areas to the west.
Graves, FUlton, Calloway, Hickman counties in West Ky may get involved in the severe to.
40 years ago to this date and time
An F4 devasted Calloway, Marshall thu Trigg and Caldwell into Chrisitan OCunty.
It was a F4 it traveled 51 miles started at 11:50pm 4/3/68 and ended in Pennryle Forest at 1:15am on 4/4/68. 2 people perished along the track and destruction was reported.
Then 4 hours after this great leader Martin Luther King JR was shot in Memphis.
So 40 yrs later a lot of things went down
It was a F4 it traveled 51 miles started at 11:50pm 4/3/68 and ended in Pennryle Forest at 1:15am on 4/4/68. 2 people perished along the track and destruction was reported.
Then 4 hours after this great leader Martin Luther King JR was shot in Memphis.
So 40 yrs later a lot of things went down
Update
Training rain is starting to occur there may be some breaks in intensity but Moderate to Heavy Rain should train across West KY right now it looks like the worst training occurs from the West KY Parkway north.
Flash Flood Warnings last for Union, Daviess, Henderson from 2:15 to 3:15am. More flash flood warnings could be neecasary. The severe threat is going down but isoalted hail/wind is possible.
Flash Flood Warnings last for Union, Daviess, Henderson from 2:15 to 3:15am. More flash flood warnings could be neecasary. The severe threat is going down but isoalted hail/wind is possible.
Why they call it Flash Flooding
Heavy rain some 1 inch to 1 1/2 icnh an hour on radar is falling down. These areas could quickly pick up 3 icnhes in areas already having 1 to 2 icnhes towns included include
Clay
Providence
Madisonville
Princeton
Marion
Smithland
Greeneville
and sourround towns in these areas a Flash Flood Warning is alos in effect till later for Ballard, Mccracken, Caldwell, Livingston. Lyon, and Crittenden till 8:30pm
Turn around and Dont Drown
Clay
Providence
Madisonville
Princeton
Marion
Smithland
Greeneville
and sourround towns in these areas a Flash Flood Warning is alos in effect till later for Ballard, Mccracken, Caldwell, Livingston. Lyon, and Crittenden till 8:30pm
Turn around and Dont Drown
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Spring Break let it rip
Severe storms are poss Thurs Afternoon Thur Friday.
In high shear enviroment, cape values up to 1000, dew points poss up to the 60's, LI indexes of -4 a pretty sizable severe event may be in process.
In this great shear enviroment if a storm can form it has potential to rotate.
Also 3-6 inches of rain is possible across West KY with flash flooding to river flooding issues.
Issues in a list
1) Flash Flooding
2) River Flooding
3) Tornadoes
4) Thudnerstorm Winds
5) Hail
6) Non Thunderstorm Winds
The tornadoes may be isolated, but what can from could rotate.
In high shear enviroment, cape values up to 1000, dew points poss up to the 60's, LI indexes of -4 a pretty sizable severe event may be in process.
In this great shear enviroment if a storm can form it has potential to rotate.
Also 3-6 inches of rain is possible across West KY with flash flooding to river flooding issues.
Issues in a list
1) Flash Flooding
2) River Flooding
3) Tornadoes
4) Thudnerstorm Winds
5) Hail
6) Non Thunderstorm Winds
The tornadoes may be isolated, but what can from could rotate.
Morning Call Map
Confusing call amp the grayi s 4-8 pot of rain and the green/brown is 3-6 the other two colors so the severe pot of 4/3 and 4/4Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Spring Break 2008
This HPC sohws widespread 6 inches. SO up to 9 inches oculd fall in West KY
This is a Call Map widespread amounts of rain of 4 to 9 inches of rain is expected in West KY in all 22 counties. This call map will change though. Serious flash flooding turned river flooding is expected. In matter of fact a second crest of rivers like the Ohio that are already flooding is expected.April 1st
- Happy April Fools day dont worry none of the blogs or statements on this will represent any April fool trickery. The storms and facts you are about to read are true. My call map for very heavy rainfall in West KY may be aggresive but a major flood event is in tap.
Some facts.
- West kY severe spirng season has began and lasts till June 30th you can info on NWS, blogs, News or any local outlet.
- April 2nd is the 2 year annviersery of Hopkinsville/Allegrie KY tornado.
- April 3rd is the 34th anniversery of the Super Outbreak, and the 40th (apr 3/4th) anniversery of the long tracked f4 that struck esp Calloway and Marshall counties and moved into Caldwell and Chrisitan counties.
Also a very sig system has it's eyes looked on West KY more on that next blogspot blog.
Some facts.
- West kY severe spirng season has began and lasts till June 30th you can info on NWS, blogs, News or any local outlet.
- April 2nd is the 2 year annviersery of Hopkinsville/Allegrie KY tornado.
- April 3rd is the 34th anniversery of the Super Outbreak, and the 40th (apr 3/4th) anniversery of the long tracked f4 that struck esp Calloway and Marshall counties and moved into Caldwell and Chrisitan counties.
Also a very sig system has it's eyes looked on West KY more on that next blogspot blog.
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