Jan. 18th overview

- Rainfall likely today(total amounts of .15 to .30 of an inch expected today)
- Some Flurries may mix in on the backside, but nothing of significance.
- Will watch for a possible Winter Storm on Thursday(should be mostly snow, even though some sleet may mix in, and the SE part of West KY may start as rain/sleet, or mix with rain/sleet during the event).
- How much moisture is generated is also a question/

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day

Happy Martin Luther King JR. Day. Lets all continue to work hard on fighting Racism, in our area. We have come a long way, but we still got awhile to go.

Some early frz drizzle.

For southern portions of Western Kentucky: Some freezing drizzle is possible for the morning hours, before a change over to rain. No accumulation is expected, but elevated surfaces may become slick before a changeover to rain. As of now this exists from a Bardwell to Benton to Greenville KY line south.

The next two systems

Temperatures should start in the 40's for Monday,Tuesday, then Highs will fall to the 30's the rest of the week. Temp forecasts after Thursday, are pretty uncertain, as models diverge, and there is a possibility for snowcover.

There are two systems to watch for our area. (One could be wintry)

- The first is a mostly rain event, although some a few sleet pellets/frz drizzle may start early Monday, it should change to rain very quickly. About a quarter to half-inch of rain is expected from Monday into Tuesday. A slight chance of light snow may occur Tuesday Night.

- The next system is a possible Winter Weather Event on Thursday. Some model uncertainties on how much moisture will be present, or if any rain/sleet could mix in West KY. Snow Accumulation is possible with this system, but it is too early to go into specific amounts.

Next System

Temperatures have rose to average today. The next system should be mostly a rain event, but you can't rule out a wintry mix to start before it changes over to rain Sunday Night into Martin Luther King JR. Day.

We will watch the system, and make sure the wintry precipitation doesn't hang around to long, but indications are that it won't and should go to rain fairly quickly. That will be followed by the next period of solidly cold, but not extremely cold temperatures through the rest of next week into newxt weekend.

Snowy USA

Every state with the exception of Florida has snow on the ground, even Hawaii which has Winter Storm Warnings, and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings as we speak.

That is 49 out of 50 states with snow on the ground.

Beware of Black Ice

Beware of Black Ice, from any snowmelt today, as temps. will be well below freezing today, and tomorrow. Temps. should rise above freezing either Friday, or Saturday for the northern areas.

Jan 11th snowfall

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=62622&source=0

Jan 11th snowfall. From about a half inch near the TN border, to 2 inches in the Henderson/Owensboro KY area.

Flurries/Light Snow Showers should continue this morning with little or no accumulation expected to occur.

Morning totals map

Should range from just under an inch near the TN border, to 2 to 3 in the Henderson Owensboro KY areas.

Winter WX Advisory

Winter WX Advisory for the lakes eastward till 6am, for the Purchase area till Noon.

Updated Call map for West KY.

Updated Call map for the area. Winter WX Advisory for everyone in West KY. 1 inch amounts the further SW and S you go, and more 3, maybe even locally 4 towards Indiana the further NE you go.

Winter WX Advisory for all of West KY till Noon Tuesday

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ017&warncounty=KYC047&firewxzone=KYZ017&local_place1=Hopkinsville+KY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory

Clipper system

- A few stray snow showers may hang around today, from last night's TN winter storm, but shouldn't amount to much.
- A clipper system will track across IL/IN/OH. While we will not be under the best dynamics, we will have enough moisture for some snowfall, best chances would in the Evansville IN/Henderson KY/Owensboro KY areas. The chances decrease the further south, and southwest one goes. Most snow will fall from late tonight-into the morning hours of Tuesday, with some stray snow showers maybe lasting into early Tuesday Night.

Winter WX Advisory

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ018&warncounty=KYC101&firewxzone=KYZ018&local_place1=Henderson+KY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory

The next system NW KY is under a Winter WX Advisory.

Overview of Minor Winter Threats

- The northern band of an intense winter storm to affect TN southward, is expected to move across the TN/KY border, because of that some measurable snow is possible tonight/Monday. Any shift further north, than even greater amounts could occur, any shift further south, then pretty much nothing.

- On Tuesday Night(after 1am), may be a little earlier, a Clipper/North Vort is expected to move across MO/IL/IN. This could spread 1 inch to locally 2 inches across West KY. Will have to watch that track, and see if a band can form, from this that could produce locally greater snow amounts.

Neither are expected to be major events for West KY, but if you have travel plans today, and tomorrow, and even Tuesday across TN,GA,AL,Far SE KY,MS,LA,ARK,Carolinas you want to watch the first storm. Any snow that falls in Kentucky, due to colder ground temperatures may stick easier, so if your area gets snow, you want to exercise caution when traveling.

Winter Threats are possible.

- Will continue to watch the Sunday/Monday system, and the Tuesday system.

- Sunday-Monday system, may feature measurable snow in the KY/TN border area, and a Witner Storm just to the south of there.

- Tuesday system, features a northern vort, that could cause a possible 1-3 inch snowfall.

Jan 7th overview.

Winter WX Advisory for today.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ018&warncounty=KYC101&firewxzone=KYZ018&local_place1=3+Miles+NW+Baskett+KY&product1=Winter+Weather+Advisory

Winter Weather Advisory for Henderson, Daviess, Mclean county. 1-2 inches is expected today, and a dusting to inch east of the Lakes is possible.

Clipper Map

There is the map for the clipper in Western Kentucky.

Dusting to an inch along the Green River, A dusting to half inch in the Madisonville/Hopkinsville/Elkton area, and probably nothing more than flurries elsewhere.

Tonight's Clipper

Clipper expected tonight and into Friday. 1 to 3 inches in NE Mid TN in the Advisory area. Higher amounts on the Plateau, for West KY a dusting to an inch cannot be ruled out along the Green River. In NW Mid TN about a dusting to under an inch, and pretty much a non-event along the TN River, and in the Purchase area of Western Kentucky.

We will also continue to watch, and see how much moisture can sneak into southern portions of Western Kentucky on the Sunday Night/Monday system.

Overview of the Weekend Event

Today/tonight watch for a quick hitting clipper. A dusting cannot be ruled out(in eastern sections of Western Kentucky), but that should be about it.

The Attention shifts to the Sunday/Monday system. A gulf low is expected to form, and this needs to be watched, because if it trends northward, there could be a snow event for Western Kentucky. As of now the best chance for the Winter Event should be along I-40 and south. The call map, using Weather Underground is posted, to display possible thoughts of this system.

- Along the KY/TN border measurable snow is possible, but we appear to be on the northern fringe of it, if we trend NW this area could get a decent snow event, now it appears the better chance for Measurable South will Nashville southward, but a few models are pushing the precipitation border in the KY/TN border area.
- The Rest of West KY needs a NW Trend, or the northern energy to get involved to get measurable snow. Will need to watch the models to see how far north the measurable snow event makes it.

The labels snow(means at this point the event should be all snow) snow/sleet(means mostly snow, but mixed with some sleet) Wintry Mix(Means mix of snow/sleet/frz.rain/rain). Since we are 3 days out it should be noted at this is possible, but far from certain. We still have 3 days of model runs to go, and things can change, and some questions remain.

today's update

Today expect a snow/light rain mix in Southern KY and Mid TN. As it appears most precipitation will slide to the south of Western Kentucky, so at this point a dusting to half inch at best for areas right along the TN border, with just flurries/light snow showers at best elsewhere.

A Chance of Snow tommorrow.

A weak clipper like system, is expected to move across Kentucky tomorrow. The models are starting to start precipitation, with borderline temperatures. Some models are showing hardly nothing, some accumulating snow, some mostly rain mixed with flurries. As of right now will mention the chance of a dusting to inch is possible, and will continue to watch the model runs tonight, and now-casting trends tomorrow.

Another clipper is possible closer to the weekend, and a possible winter system/cold rain maker is appearing on the models for the Sunday/Monday period.

11 Years Ago

Click to Enlarge Image.

- A Severe Weather struck Western Kentucky, this occurred on January, 3rd, 2000.

* The most notable events of this severe wx event, were the Owensboro KY F3 tornado, and the Crittenden/Webster County Tornado.

- 100 homes were destroyed, and 700 with major damage in Owensboro, but luckily no fatalities occurred. The tornado struck just after 4pm, before that a F3 tornado struck the Crayne(Crittenden County) to Diamond(Webster County) were a few injuries occurred, and 100 homes damaged and destroyed.

- Flooding was also an issue with bridge washouts in Carlisle County and a State of Emergency Declared. Some flooding also occurred across most of West Kentucky from Far Western Kentucky to the Purchase area, to the West KY Parkway area northward. Baseball sized hail occurred in Graves County near Mayfield.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/Owb_tor/jan3stm.php
^^ PAH Summary ^^

Warm January??? Models/Arctic Blocking disagrees.

Day 6 to 10 Outlook

8 to 14 Day Outlook




In the long range, it looks like the idea of a Warm January may be in jeopardy. It appears the -AO signature should continue, and models are showing intense arctic blocking, which could lead to cold air being locked into the country at least through the middle of the month. If those models are right, then this CPC longer range outlook shows what the results will be.

New Year cool tempartures.

After a warm New Years Eve, and very Early New Years Night temperatures will be in the Upper 30's today, briefly warm up to the 40's this week. Other than maybe a light snower/flurry mix on Wednesday, this week appears dry.

Welcome to 2011, Hope you all had a great New Years, and ready for 2011