Springbrekaers Update

Slower system has more worries along iwth pot of more nighttime tornadoes and widespread damaging winds. ALso sig hail. Slowness of system emans more at night. Still a very sig and poss life threatning risk. Maype slighty trending more damaging winds along with tornadoes. An isolated wicked supercell is poss as early as late afternoon.

SPringbreakers Screaming Again

The Darker more puprelish blue is if SPC issues a High Risk will it would most likely be. That area from Lake Barkley Lodge from Marion KY west may be ground zero and get of the worst of this not only in West KY but the entire nation. All of West KY is in the threat and areas east of the line are pretty much just look nearly as bad as Jackson Purchase area does. Nocturnal jet could actually make storms stronger so that is a threat to watch as we go.

Severe wx and poss Tornadoes are possible. In pot several rounds of squall lines and supercells 3 to 4.Timing of each is uncertain most should effect West KY and at least Western Half of Mid TN if not all of it.

Tornadoes some could be significant EF-3 plus, Hail up to 4 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 125 MPH is poss across West KY and NW Mid TN.An Friday afternoon threat is poss from US 41 east and in Mid TN.

Not as sig as Thursday and Thurs Night/Fri morning threat damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear poss with this.Stay tuned to news, weather, and all forecasts for more details and poss watches or warnings.

Sprignbreakers Final Screams

Severe wx and poss Tornadoes are possiblie.

In pot several rounds of squall lines and supercells 3 to 4.Timing of each is uncertain msot souhld effect West KY and at least Western Half of Mid TN if not all of it.

Tornadoes some could be siginfacnt EF-3 plus, Hail up to 4 inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 125 MPH is poss across West KY and NW Mid TN.An Friday afternoon threat is poss from US 41 east and in Mid TN.

Not as sig as Thursday and Thurs Night/Fri morning threat damaging winds and isolated tornadoes appear poss with this.Stay tuned to news, weather, and all forecasts for more details and poss watches or warnings.

StiLL JusT as SiG.

Most def still just as sig. Great winds and LLJ along with instability, lift, and moisture look good. The only con is cloudcover and precip may hurt us. Cloudcover may temper the threat somewhat but with this shear unlike TUesday it will not def even come close to trying to cancel the threat.

SUpercells will be poss. They will organize into a derecho that moves across West KY from 10pm-4am maype since i am starting to buy slower soultions maype more 4am-10am. Supercells should start around Fulton/ Mayfield around 4-5pm and continue. Isolated hailers may be poss overnight tonight and early tomm morning.

The GREATEST THREAT AREA IS JACKSON PURCHASE: including Ballard, Mccracken, Marshall, Calloway, Carlisie, Fulton, Hickman, and Graves counties. This looks to be a HIGH RISK type day here at least one EF-3 - EF-5 may be possible.

A Great threat exists across the Rest of West KY: A Strong tornado may be possible here mayype not quite as bad as far west KY

IN ALL WEST KY 22
- Damaging winds widespread 70-80 mph winds with local wind gusts up to 125 MPH
- Strong Tornadoes a super cell could be capable of an EF-3 + tornado ( Jackson Purchase looks like Ground Zero)
- Large Hail poss up to the size of Softballs in the strongest supercell.

Threat looks like most sig timeframe for West KY 22 is 5pm Thursday thu 4am Friday.

The threat should also be in at least NW Mid TN during this time and shift into Mid TN and last poss until late afternoon/early evening. Middle TN threat not quite as bad as West KY but could be bad though in some areas.

Run DOwn Springbrekaers Thursday

Sorry if you cant read it but Tornadoes long tracked, Thunderstorm WInds in excess of 125 MPH is poss in bows, RFD of Supercells, and Derecho forming Thurs Night-Midday Friday timeframe. Classic supercells will allow for plains type supercells producing hail 3 to 5 inches in diameter and long track and strong to poss violent tornadoes cant be ruled out. It appears the West KY 22 should poss recieve a few tornadoes a few may be of high ranking.

Flooding is a big issue some storms oculd produce an inch to and inch in a half an hour. Cause pot for flash flooding river flooding is big two.

NW MID TN will also run the risk of seeing Sig Tornadoes and all the other threats listed. A decent squall/line derecho and poss supercells should move across all of Mid TN Thurs Night and Fri with tornaodes, wind , hail poss

Springbreaks Adventure Log #1

Friday outlook could be inaccurate there is my big threat My thursday outlook

Tuesday has dimished moisture retunr and expected sun ruined everything.

MDT risk is IN effect for Day 3 Thursday

- Long tracked tornadoes/supercells are possible

- A lot better isntablity is forecasted

- Cloudcover is an issue the only issue

- Low is expected to be a extremly strong 982-990mb range.

- Severe wx poss from SOuthern WI to Mi and poss Southern ON to the Deep South. West Ky will be centerstage

- Squall Line and Derechos can produce Damaging WInds up towards 125 MPH

- I see a pot. High Risk being issued for West KY

THIS IS A FEW DANGEROUS DAYS.

Stay tuned to NEWS, TV, Local Radio

Heed all warnings I will tomm post tornado safety rules to refresh tornado safety rules.

My call maps very exp. This is an amautur forecast and should take place of por. But will maype give a idea on the best threats.

SpringBreakers Thursday Update

A sig. severe weather event is expected across Western KY Thursday thu Midday Friday. As of right now NWS Paduach has mentioned the poss of Long Tracked Supercells producing pot. long tracked tornadoes. With the shear and dynamics being off the chart that is def possibile. The threat in West KY will start along several lines

1) Warm Front- Thoughtout the day the warm front early Thursday will make it's northeast run from OK/ Arkansas towards IL, MO, and yes even West Ky and into TN. SUpercells and poss Training supercells. Which this could be anytime during the day for West KY. This may also actually be one of our biggest chances of supercells out of this system.

2) Shortwaves/Outflows/Warm Sector Storms- The precip in AK, and OK may create outflow boundaries that act out as lift for the next storms. As the boundary layer rapidly destablizes thoughout the afternoon more supercells and possible bow echos esp with the jet streak and the crazy shaer will be poss with the pot of gigantic hail, damaging winds in excess of 100 MPH, and Tornadoes that could be strong and poss long tracked.

3) Cold Front and Main System itself- Looks like first depending on the timing Thurs night-Fri Midday looks good for this time. The storm mode is a pot high end squall line/derecho with damaging winds in excess of 100MPH poss in strongest storms along with hail and tornadoes for any storm in or any supercelluar type system outside the derecho/squall line/quasi linear type system.

The threat for the whole states of KY and TN appears to gets worse as you go from West( being the biggest threat) to East (having a good sized threat but not as sig as West.)

Plus tornado hit areas of Sumner and Macon county TN may get lucky if timing permits and my miss the most sig part of squall line and supercells from west to east. Timing may deterioate the system Thurs Night, and tthe main performance may to off to the east of the area Friday afternoon. Don't ocunt on it though it iwll all depend on timing it does look like there may be a less sig threat lapse somewhere in Mid TN. Also be concerned about noctural jet which may prevent that and the poss of still several pre frontal supercells if they form.

SpringBreakers Tuesday Severe update

Cloud cover is widespread across the area. Models have overdone instablity whichi didn't expect. Moisture return which i predicted to be a problem was def a big problem for today. As for now a slight risk exists for west ky Winf/Hail and isolated spinup are poss for any storms that form.

Springbreakers Statement

Spring Time a wonderful time of year. A Time for the Prom and Graduation. You may have dreams of hanging and sippin lemonade in the spring shade as the trees turn green and flowers erupt into bloom. The sun shines bright most of the time and spring rains wash the pollen down the driveway. Pools may start coming up outdoor parties should start occurring. Occasionally a spring snowstorm may intrude and cause flashbacks of the joys of winter mixed with the excitement of spring the season of birth the season of life. Is there anything sinister about this season. What about the laying out in the a blanket or outside playing some ball in temps in the upper 70’s with a refreshing southwest wind and watching the cumulus clods tower into great shapes like towers of white that represent the playfulness of the human race prancing over the red roses the farm crop land the violets and the swimming though the lake not thinking about the stress of normal life. What is wrong with that. Spring is supposed to be a season of life of innocence. Spring is supposed to be the season of innocence. Spring is a pretty thing.

Sometimes
Pretty things can turn Ugly
Turn Ugly
Turn Ugly
Ugly

April 8th, 10th/11th will do just that check out my last few posts on the sunject.

04/08/08 SPringbreakers Rundown

I got 4 pros and 3 cons. The cons may be hard to read. The main con is pot moisture return issues. OTher cons may be the low being too disorganzied and the best dynamics may be in SE MO/ IL/ North AK. I do tihnk West kY should see some decent to good dynamics esp some good lift. Those are pros. OVerall we should see severe wx esp in NW KY. A poss high end slight amype MDT in some areas as hail/winds/isoalted tornadoes/locally heavy rain appear poss.

SpringBreakers Note

ANother interesting storm for another day. Check tihs out

Good site http://www.indianaweatheronline.com/
try that cool link also to left said is Talkweather and TN weather Zone links to some great links on what is going on

A spirng breakers map

This is a good map hard to read text. SLight is 15% wind and 2-10% tornado depending on how close you are to the MDT. Red what I think for West KY soon. Looks like a good precursur event. Tihs for spc has to be a high end slight amype even a MDT.

West KY (uses the 25 miels or a few counties radious not os much probablity but threat levle) This is an unprofessal outlook SPC meterologists know mroe stikc to NWS
City Tornado Wind Hail
PAdauch 15%(hatched) 30% 30% (hatched) MDT threat
Henderson/Owensburo 15% (hatched) 30% 30% MDT threat
Hopkinsville 10% 15% 15% SLGT threat

Tuesday storms

A setup is for severe wx for West KY. despite the low being somewhat disorangized the instabilty, lift, moisture, and shear should be all there to give you some severe wx.

As it stands right now lines, clusters, poss supercells all appear possible starting late Tuesday thu wee morning hours of Wedensday.

Right now wind/hail are the big threats, but isolated tornadoes and a few tornado warnings are also poss and must be watched.

Also locally heavy rain is poss and to be watched for any flooding issues. We all know West Kentucky doesnt need any more rain.

This system will also setup for a potenailly even more potent and poss severe/tornado outbreak later on.

Also another flooding event is poss as poss as high as 4-8 inches can fall between Tuesday-Saturday esp rivers flooding may need to be watched which some rivers are in Moderate?Major Flood Stage as it is now

For my defintion MDT may be poss in WEst IN, NW KY, SOuthern IL, SE MO 15% torando (hatched), 30% hail and wind

10 years the great April 1998

April 3rd 1998- Friday a great day to get off esp if you spring break. This was a day for everyone to get excited and get that good week of spring break off. Severe storms quickly fired in the unstable atmosphere. Most of TN was effected and some hail got up in Trigg and Christian county KY.

APril 8th 1998- It was several years to this date. The time came a day everyone in the Mid and Deep South to remeber. Damaging Winds, F2-F5 tornadoes, Large Hail touched down and wrecked havoc. B-Ham alabama got hit by an f-5 Tornado. Hail and WInd were widespread in West KY. Manchester TN area got hit by a F1 tornado.

April 13th 1998- This was the day before looking at the big 15th/16th tornado outbreak. Severe storms shot up in West KY . Graves County got hit by an F-1 near the Graves County Sheriff post. Hail was up to quarter and golfball hail.

APril 15th/16th 1998- And first timeand only 2nd time to present time this years 10th/11th system will be interesting that somearea of West KY had a High Risk that ngiht and SOuthern part of West KY that day the 16th. The ngihtime event on the 15th didnt quite play out even a supercell proudced F3/F4 tornadoes in NE AK and West TN that night. The 16th was a day to remeber in SOuthern KY and Mid TN not did West Ky have some big time flooding issues. It was a day of the big tornadoes. F3 Nashville tornado and F5 Lawrence County TN tornadoes will be remebered for there impact across Mid Tn. Downbursts, Very LArge Hail was occuring from a very intense supercell moving thu the Hokinsville, Todd county area into Bowling Green it later produced an F3 Tornado of its own.

April 27th and 30th produced isoalted hail and wind across West Ky and areas of TN also.

But 4 systems with tornadic pot hit the area this April 1998 a truely amazing month.

Spring Break is Rough Maps

The blue is slgiht for APril 9th Wedensday and Green is SLight for April 8th. Tihs APril 8th threat may require a MDT from SPC later on. Due to uncertainites will stick with slight. Wed is very uncertain but too think West KY still has storms on Wedensday with mostly damaging wind threat.

April 8th with some hail/wind/tornado threat.

April 10th and 11th you probably dont want to know

Spring Break is Rough

Several systems look cocked into the West KY area. Short details will be discussed of both. Thurs/Fri system looks very impressive. If models verfly it will be talked about for a long time.

Pre Game- Tues/ Tues Night/Early Wed morningThis system will setup the Friday System. Eastward movement extend the threat to West KY where capes nearing 2000 j/kg and Good shear and lift will be possible to trigger severe storms a few supercells followed by a squall line appears poss. Damaging Winds, Hail and Isolated Tornadoes may be a threat.


Game (Thurs-Fri)Words cant describe how Significant this could become.

Too early to go into details though. A very sig Squall Line/Derecho is poss along with Supercells West KY will be eeffected and poss from a Gulf Coast to SOuthern Mich.Classic outbreak of tornadoes and derecho is possible.

Flash FLooding is poss to very heavy rains poss several inches in a span of hours.

This may change stay tuned for more details on possible severe/floodign events.

River Flooding time

The Green River is flooding meanwhile the Ohio River will take a second crest.

MDT flooding on most of the Ohio River from Brookport to Mount Vernon poss. Minor Flooding east of that and Major Flooding in Cairo and Grand Chain.

Watch out for at least MDT flooding along the Green River to crest should come in the Mon Night-Wedensday time frame.

The Ariel flood Warning for areas of NW KY including Madisonville is in effect till tomm morning, still some flooding issues to be had.

NEws 14 Video from Evansville ckeck it out

Flood Warning extended till 6pm for NW KY

http://www.14wfie.com/global/video/popup/pop_player.asp?ClipID1=2354568&h1=Madisonville%20mayor%20blames%20railroad%20for%20flooding&vt1=v&at1=News&d1=59133&LaunchPageAdTag=News&activePane=info&playerVersion=1&hostPageUrl=http%3A//www.14wfie.com/global/story.asp%3Fs%3D8119232&rnd=60126314

scrool down to see mroe videos of this flood. Entire business section of madisonvilel got flooded

Rainy results 4/4/08

Here lies a big map. ITt shows swaths of 3-6 icnhes in West KY. The red colors represent where the 4, 5 and even 6 inch amounts are located. Which agrees with the 3-7 inch rain reports in most of West KY.

School which was suppsoed to be in session in Webster and Hopkins countys was cancelled and Mclean county delayed.

Hopkins, Webster, Mclean, Daviess, Livingston, Crittenden counties seemed to get the worst of the flooding reports in West KY.

Several streets across Madisonville and Owensburo and Marion and a good deal of West KY (esp NW KY) still remain flooded but with A chance of rain and thudnerstorms today not that great even with clouds it will take awhile for the ariel flooding to seize

Then after that the River Flood threat will continue with pot of a second much bigger crest.

Flood Warnings remain in effect for NW KY till Noon and the River Flood Warnings are out.

3 ft of water in Livignston COunty

Reprots are coming in it is bad.Major flooding is occuring north of a Smithland to Dawson Spring to Lewisburg Ky line.Some reports include:
Owensburo: Major flash flooding of city streeets( Jansen Report)

Madisonville: Flooding of the mall/business district and country club

Muhlenburg County: Flooding of soem roads

Marion: State highways and city is starting to flood, familys having to leave thier homes

Livingston County: 3 feet of water flooding of homes has begun

2-4 inches has fallen in the area with local 4-5 inch amounts since today.

2-4 inches may fall again in this area being total amounts locally 6 to 10.

With 3 to 6 icnhes for the rest of West KY and 1 to 4 in the rest of Mid TN.Severe wx isnt totally dead a strongly worder and venable T-storm Watch is in effect for Paris Tn and areas to the west.

Graves, FUlton, Calloway, Hickman counties in West Ky may get involved in the severe to.

40 years ago to this date and time

An F4 devasted Calloway, Marshall thu Trigg and Caldwell into Chrisitan OCunty.

It was a F4 it traveled 51 miles started at 11:50pm 4/3/68 and ended in Pennryle Forest at 1:15am on 4/4/68. 2 people perished along the track and destruction was reported.

Then 4 hours after this great leader Martin Luther King JR was shot in Memphis.

So 40 yrs later a lot of things went down

Update

Training rain is starting to occur there may be some breaks in intensity but Moderate to Heavy Rain should train across West KY right now it looks like the worst training occurs from the West KY Parkway north.

Flash Flood Warnings last for Union, Daviess, Henderson from 2:15 to 3:15am. More flash flood warnings could be neecasary. The severe threat is going down but isoalted hail/wind is possible.

Why they call it Flash Flooding

Heavy rain some 1 inch to 1 1/2 icnh an hour on radar is falling down. These areas could quickly pick up 3 icnhes in areas already having 1 to 2 icnhes towns included include

Clay
Providence
Madisonville
Princeton
Marion
Smithland
Greeneville

and sourround towns in these areas a Flash Flood Warning is alos in effect till later for Ballard, Mccracken, Caldwell, Livingston. Lyon, and Crittenden till 8:30pm

Turn around and Dont Drown

Spring Break let it rip

Severe storms are poss Thurs Afternoon Thur Friday.

In high shear enviroment, cape values up to 1000, dew points poss up to the 60's, LI indexes of -4 a pretty sizable severe event may be in process.

In this great shear enviroment if a storm can form it has potential to rotate.

Also 3-6 inches of rain is possible across West KY with flash flooding to river flooding issues.

Issues in a list
1) Flash Flooding
2) River Flooding
3) Tornadoes
4) Thudnerstorm Winds
5) Hail
6) Non Thunderstorm Winds

The tornadoes may be isolated, but what can from could rotate.

Morning Call Map

Confusing call amp the grayi s 4-8 pot of rain and the green/brown is 3-6 the other two colors so the severe pot of 4/3 and 4/4

Spring Break 2008

This HPC sohws widespread 6 inches. SO up to 9 inches oculd fall in West KY

This is a Call Map widespread amounts of rain of 4 to 9 inches of rain is expected in West KY in all 22 counties. This call map will change though. Serious flash flooding turned river flooding is expected. In matter of fact a second crest of rivers like the Ohio that are already flooding is expected.

April 1st

- Happy April Fools day dont worry none of the blogs or statements on this will represent any April fool trickery. The storms and facts you are about to read are true. My call map for very heavy rainfall in West KY may be aggresive but a major flood event is in tap.

Some facts.

- West kY severe spirng season has began and lasts till June 30th you can info on NWS, blogs, News or any local outlet.

- April 2nd is the 2 year annviersery of Hopkinsville/Allegrie KY tornado.

- April 3rd is the 34th anniversery of the Super Outbreak, and the 40th (apr 3/4th) anniversery of the long tracked f4 that struck esp Calloway and Marshall counties and moved into Caldwell and Chrisitan counties.

Also a very sig system has it's eyes looked on West KY more on that next blogspot blog.