Chances of Interest

There is gonna to be a storm that needs to watched on Tuesday Jan 22nd. This looks to be an evaporative cooling/ wet bulb situation in which could provide interest across most of West KY. This needs to be watched to see if there is any effects of this system it looks like better chance for pure snow to be north of US 62 because areas south of the US 62 may mix a little more with rain and maype a little sleet or freezing rain cant be totally ruled out either.

A storm that looks to effect TN may capture attenion Wed Night-Thurs Morning

Then a potent storm looks to maype effect anyone in the Central or Eastern US Thurs Night- Fri and even another chance into Saturday.

A week of dissapointment and or hope may be in the horizon more details later.

The Big Show 12/15-12/16

So now this situation becomes very interesting across The bluegrass state and many other surrounding areas. Right now the first possible measurable snow is possible across all of West KY and even into Tennessee. Tonight some sleet and maype a light snow shower could mix with the rain right now temps are slightly above freezing. This is an amateur forecast stick to NWS or other news sources for more details. Feel free to comment on this forecast based on models, climatology, and even the NWS thinking techniques and how they interpret the models.

WINTER POTENTIAL BY COLOR ZONE

ORANGE ZONE (includes Ballard, Mccracken, Livingston, Crittenden)

I think here since it is the northwest part of West KY and is closer to the colder air and farther away for the low pressure system then they may change from all rain tonight and tomorrow to snow which could accumulate 1 to 3 inches think depending on the timing of the cold air and the moisture and of course the track of the low.

YELLOW ZONE (includes Carlisie, Hickman, Fulton, and Graves)

Usually this is the area that can miss out on some good winter weather events esp in potential nor Easter situations. With a track to the south and east snow could accumulate 1 to 2 inches thick.

BROWN/GREEN ZONE(includes Calloway, Marshall, Lyon, Caldwell and Hopkins)

Storm track is huge here and there could be a sizable difference in snow depending on how the low moves though. A more southerly track and quicker the cold air gets though the better snow chances. Two to Five on a good day for snow lovers and everything goes right. Barely under an inch if it goes slightly north, but 1 to 2 seems to be a reasonable solution.

GRAY ZONE (includes Trigg, Christian, Todd, and Muhlenburg)

Ok a the storm track and current thinking support some snow Sat Nite into Sun Morning. Flooding is going to be a concern here esp in the Green River in Paradise with Moderate to Major flooding affecting farm lands. Snow should mix in and fall after 11pm and last till around 6 to 9AM Sunday. Temps should be below freezing but many uncertainties lay in this area. Remember anything can happen and if the moisture on the backside is underestimated more snow is possible but 1 inch of snow can seem reasonable. Two to Four would be kinda pushing it though. May be good enough to go under a Winter Weather or Snow Advisory tomorrow but that is to be foresee.

FOREST GREEN ZONE (includes Union, Henderson, Webster, Daviess, and Mclean)

River flooding is going to be a big deal esp along the Green river Valley. A little later may want to worry about minor flooding of the Ohio. As far as snow with the little southward progression this area is sitting pretty with snow chances as long as moisture is there as the cold air sets in. It should change from a sleet/snow/rain mix tonight early morning to heavy rain then back to snow possibly by nightfall. Snow totals appear to be 2 to 4 inches of white stuff on the ground.

Also Remember that a flood watch is in effect. Now lets look at the river forecasts.

The Green River at Paradise is in Moderate Flood State. Could go into Major Flood stage next week depending on how much rain has fallen. Luckily not a lot of settlement is around the area but farmlands will be flooded. If the forecasted Crest could come to reality it could be the 3rd or 4th highest crest on record.

The Green River at Calhoun

The Green River at Calhoun Lock and Dam is in minor flood stage. It could go into Moderate Flood stage which could cause some lowlands around Island, Ramsey, and Jewel City to flood. This may include some roads if you see water over the road DO NOT CROSS IT.

The Ohio River from Shawneetown to Owensburo

So far no flooding is recorded but minor to maype a cross to moderate flooding in Shawneetown is expected with this heavy rain. Some of the heavy rain may send a flood crest down the river that can produce minor flooding that could effect northern parts of those counties in west Kentucky.

A Flood Watch still remains in effect for parts of West KY the counties include Calloway, Marshall, Lyon, Caldwell, Hopkins, Christian, Muhlenburg, Trigg, Todd, Mclean, and Daviess. Including the larger towns of Hopkinsville, Owensburo, Madisonville, and Murray. 2 to 3 to possibly 4 inches some falling at an inch an hour could cause and aggravate river, stream, and street flooding. This is from 6am Sat Morning though the afternoon.

Another update may be necessary tomorrow morning have a good weekend beware of this intense news making system.

one more thing if the models underestimate the moisture in the backlash we could be in trouble.

Winter Update

The storm in the weekend is really starting to get into the news. There a lot of uncertainties in this system including.

1) exact degree of cold air Fri Night though Sat
2) the affects of Olga on the system if Olga affects it
3) how the impact of having three jet streams nearby will play an issue.
4) degree of moisture esp in the Henderson KY area ( around Hopkinsville shouldn't be a problem)
5) degree of moisture on the backside of the system

It looks like all of west KY will be looking at snow. The timing of when the change over from rain to snow occurs or if it starts off as rain or snow is still not there. Also a slight northern track of an associated low pressure system which should move to around Memphis TN would mess up some chances for snow lovers. While a slight move south would increase confidence in snow lovers hearts in West KY. As it stands around 1-4 inches of snow may be reasonable one good thing is the models are starting to somewhat agree for now at least but any of the following things listed above and more can influence that heavily

Stay Tuned to News and NWS Website or any other weather source for more details on this potential Winter storm.

Really need watching

It is Wednesday and if you are following the weather a potential powerful low pressure system is expected to effect weather in West KY somehow then become a possible nor Easter type system. As far as winter weather chances the chances decrease as the low takes a more north westerly movement. Also timing is a big key because some models want to move it quicker than others. Also you have to watch to see how far the SE ridge will be suppressed, and the support and degree of the cold air the deeper the arctic high up around Michigan is the better. Even if Olga could have some influence on this system. If I had to make some forecast note this is an amateur / best guess forecast I would say this.

Henderson- Fri Night rain to snow showers changing eventually to snow Saturday before ending at nightfall. With a chance of accumulation and high temps a few degrees above freezing or right around freezing depending on degree of cold air

Hopkinsville/Murray/Madisonville- Fri Night rain, rain though first part of the day Sat changing to snow with less of a chance of accumulation probably a Dusting to an Inch if that. Any track that goes significantly northwest the snow chance is pretty much canceled unless you hope for a surprise on the backside.

Review of 2006-2007 Winter

Something I posted on My Space about how last winter was in West Kentucky also includes Middle Tennessee information.


Facts* Mild to Moderate El Nino Winter* A warm December and January followed by and a cold February with a cold snap and some snowfall.* Nashville recorded 2.2 inches of snow all of West KY and Mid TN had below average snowfall.* Biggest snowfall was from Feb 1st-4th period and again on Feb 17th* A potential Winter Storm hit the area hard on Dec 1st. Not with snow even though a few areas recorded a trace of the white stuff, but with high winds. Several areas got raked with 50MPH winds and very bitter arctic air. Scattered power outages and a shock of temps in the upper 10's to lower 20's occurred, after record highs in the mid 70's occurred the last days of November.* A very disappointing winter with predictions of possible heavy snowfalls and severe weather, but most never came true across Western Kentucky . * Just to the west Springfield and St Louis areas recorded one of there worst overall winters in awhile.* Even South Central Texas dealt with a paralyzing ice storm that went from South Central Texas though Iowa, Nebraska, all the plains states into Illinois and Missouri in January. Kentucky experienced steady rain and some minor flooding during this time.* All the snow followed by a long lasting but not necessary intense cold snap though February which lasted from Jan 31st-Feb18th* One spot in Middle Tennessee near Jamestown did pick up a very isolated 7 inch snowfall during the Feb 17th snowstorm. The rest of the Plateau recorded 3-5 inches of snow. And parts of Mid Tn and West KY mostly north and east of the lakes received 1- 3.5 inches of snow.* A few brief but quick 1-3 inch snowfalls fell across West Ky and Mid TN from Feb 1st-4th. This prompted Snow and Winter Weather Advisories and along with Feb 17th was the only snowfall event of the season.What will happen in the Winter of 2007-2008 time will only tell. Jet Stream and systems on the east coast could pay big snow dividends if everything goes right.

Last Day of WWA 2007 for Kentucky

This is the last day of Winter Awareness Week 2007. This is my first blog on this cool blogger web site. With all the great blogs in Tenneesee and other states I wanted to make one for West KY.

For some Winter facts
- Paduach- Snowfall average for a season is 10.2 inches of snowfall.
Around Hopkinsville around 8 inches is the norm.

- Some years only a trace or a few inches have fallen in West KY. Some years like 1977-1978 over 37 inches have landed on Western Kentucky Land. With a La Nina year and current trends warmer than average and wetter than average temps are expected.

Check out this link for Winter Weather Awareness Links
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=pah&storyid=10930&source=0
http://www.weather.gov/om/winter/index.shtml
http://www.redcross.org/services/prepare/0,1082,0_252_,00.html
http://www.weather.com/ready/winter/risk.html?from=wxready_eastcentral

Have a good day friends.