The Big Show 12/15-12/16

So now this situation becomes very interesting across The bluegrass state and many other surrounding areas. Right now the first possible measurable snow is possible across all of West KY and even into Tennessee. Tonight some sleet and maype a light snow shower could mix with the rain right now temps are slightly above freezing. This is an amateur forecast stick to NWS or other news sources for more details. Feel free to comment on this forecast based on models, climatology, and even the NWS thinking techniques and how they interpret the models.

WINTER POTENTIAL BY COLOR ZONE

ORANGE ZONE (includes Ballard, Mccracken, Livingston, Crittenden)

I think here since it is the northwest part of West KY and is closer to the colder air and farther away for the low pressure system then they may change from all rain tonight and tomorrow to snow which could accumulate 1 to 3 inches think depending on the timing of the cold air and the moisture and of course the track of the low.

YELLOW ZONE (includes Carlisie, Hickman, Fulton, and Graves)

Usually this is the area that can miss out on some good winter weather events esp in potential nor Easter situations. With a track to the south and east snow could accumulate 1 to 2 inches thick.

BROWN/GREEN ZONE(includes Calloway, Marshall, Lyon, Caldwell and Hopkins)

Storm track is huge here and there could be a sizable difference in snow depending on how the low moves though. A more southerly track and quicker the cold air gets though the better snow chances. Two to Five on a good day for snow lovers and everything goes right. Barely under an inch if it goes slightly north, but 1 to 2 seems to be a reasonable solution.

GRAY ZONE (includes Trigg, Christian, Todd, and Muhlenburg)

Ok a the storm track and current thinking support some snow Sat Nite into Sun Morning. Flooding is going to be a concern here esp in the Green River in Paradise with Moderate to Major flooding affecting farm lands. Snow should mix in and fall after 11pm and last till around 6 to 9AM Sunday. Temps should be below freezing but many uncertainties lay in this area. Remember anything can happen and if the moisture on the backside is underestimated more snow is possible but 1 inch of snow can seem reasonable. Two to Four would be kinda pushing it though. May be good enough to go under a Winter Weather or Snow Advisory tomorrow but that is to be foresee.

FOREST GREEN ZONE (includes Union, Henderson, Webster, Daviess, and Mclean)

River flooding is going to be a big deal esp along the Green river Valley. A little later may want to worry about minor flooding of the Ohio. As far as snow with the little southward progression this area is sitting pretty with snow chances as long as moisture is there as the cold air sets in. It should change from a sleet/snow/rain mix tonight early morning to heavy rain then back to snow possibly by nightfall. Snow totals appear to be 2 to 4 inches of white stuff on the ground.

Also Remember that a flood watch is in effect. Now lets look at the river forecasts.

The Green River at Paradise is in Moderate Flood State. Could go into Major Flood stage next week depending on how much rain has fallen. Luckily not a lot of settlement is around the area but farmlands will be flooded. If the forecasted Crest could come to reality it could be the 3rd or 4th highest crest on record.

The Green River at Calhoun

The Green River at Calhoun Lock and Dam is in minor flood stage. It could go into Moderate Flood stage which could cause some lowlands around Island, Ramsey, and Jewel City to flood. This may include some roads if you see water over the road DO NOT CROSS IT.

The Ohio River from Shawneetown to Owensburo

So far no flooding is recorded but minor to maype a cross to moderate flooding in Shawneetown is expected with this heavy rain. Some of the heavy rain may send a flood crest down the river that can produce minor flooding that could effect northern parts of those counties in west Kentucky.

A Flood Watch still remains in effect for parts of West KY the counties include Calloway, Marshall, Lyon, Caldwell, Hopkins, Christian, Muhlenburg, Trigg, Todd, Mclean, and Daviess. Including the larger towns of Hopkinsville, Owensburo, Madisonville, and Murray. 2 to 3 to possibly 4 inches some falling at an inch an hour could cause and aggravate river, stream, and street flooding. This is from 6am Sat Morning though the afternoon.

Another update may be necessary tomorrow morning have a good weekend beware of this intense news making system.

one more thing if the models underestimate the moisture in the backlash we could be in trouble.