Light SNow in NW KY

Up to a dusting is possible as far south as Providence to Calhoun KY. With up to isolated half inch to inch in the Henderson/Owensboro KY area. This shouldn't be a big issue, but some slick spots are possible.

The Grinch is in the winds

Merry Christmas!!!! Happy Hoildays!!!

The Grinch is in the winds today and tonight into Christmas Morning as a strong low pressure gradient system moves across Central Arkansas into Eastern Missouri the pressure gradient will tighten and the high winds will kick up. The Grinch Winds could gust upwareds to 50MPH+. Wind Advisories are in effect for West KY some areas may go to a High Wind Warning or come close for this event.

Christmas Lookout.

A impressive system is moving across the Central US. Our impacts won't be snow, but instead locally heavy rain and some Christmas Winds. Wind Gusts up to 49-50MPH are possible Christmas Eve though Christmas Morning. Hold on to your Christmas decorations.

Christmas Travels.

After freezing fog in parts of West KY caused some accidents. The fog clears and temps rise into the upper 40's.

- Temps into the 50's Tuesday than near or even exceeding 60 on the 23rd and Christmas Eve
- Cold Front comes though Christmas Eve night with temps in the 40's falling into the 30's for Christmas Day with rain sprinkles and a stray flurry.
- Locally heavy rain is possible, so are strong non-thunderstorm winds up to 40MPH. Not a strong wind event, but enough to push on some high profile cars, trucks, and vans on Christmas Eve travels, and blow over Christmas decorations.
- Rain shouldn't cause anytime big flooding although localized ponding on low water crossings is possible. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected east of US 45, and 2 to 3 inches of rain west of US 45.

For Traveling in TN and for KY

http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm
http://511.ky.gov/

Time to play the game of clippers

With two weekend clippers and a noreaster. There may be enough cool air for Saturday and moisture for very light snowfall. With a dusting along the KY/TN border to upwards to an inch in Henderson and Owensboro

watch out

rain and snow showers mix Saturday and Sat. Night. Watch out around the 23rd-24th a system may form that could impact travel and hoilday plans in a negative way.

Dec 9

Wind and Water all over

Part I- Heavy Rain up to 2 inches of rain can fall in West KY. This won't cause big issues, but could cause ponding on low water crossings.

Part II- Strong Winds are coming so hold on to something. Wind gusts from the SW then W starting about midnight, and continuing into the morning and afternoon hours of Wednesday. This will be the story sustained winds of 25 to 30MPH with gusts up to 45 to 49MPH likely. Beware of driving if you drive in a high-profile vehicle. Also some isolated brief power outages and minor damage can't be ruled out.

Wind Advisory

High Wind Event possible

Light flurries and rain tonight. Rain and wind this week

Light flurries and rain expected today.

I am watching for the potential of some high end wind gusts from a huge system coming though the midwest the middle of this week. Wind Advisory Gusts may be reached.

Thanks to Google Earth

For Mid TN it is a quick map for the northern and central Plateau. For Southern Plateau I predict about an 1 to 2 inch from higher elevations of Grundy and Franklin County.

A few systems this week.

- First is the system for tomorrow and tomorrow night into early Thursday. This could be a decent rainmaker, have some chances of backside snow to but little to no accumulation is expected. Except for maybe a dusting to an half inch close to the Miss. River if one is lucky enough.

- Than if we get enough moisture and a very significant NW trend than West KY can be on the edge of another weathermaker later in the week.

Enjoy December
The most wonderful time of the year.

It is that wonderful time of the year.

HAPPY Meteorological Winter.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

With mostly cloudy skies and highs in the 46-50 range.

HAPPY TURKEY DAY

Cool and maybe an isolated rain shower for Turkey Day

HAPPY TURKEY DAY IT IS TOMMOROW

Highs are in the 42-46 range with a slight chance of a rain shower, a flurry can't be ruled out in NW KY Thursday Night but that will be all. A light freeze may be possible Thanksgiving Night.

Boring Weather continues

More boring weather for us. Seasonal highs in the mid to upper 50's in the next few days.

Winter Weather Awareness review of last winter

2008-09- For West KY and Mid TN a winter of two major events and a few minor events.

A minor event on Dec 15th put down up to 3 inches of snow and sleet across Southern Hopkins and Muhlenberg County.

On Jan 27th a major ice storm occurred. Some areas were without power for up to 70 days as up to 1 to even 2 inches of ice accumulated. On the second round on Jan 28th 1 to 4 inches of snow also fell across Western KY.

Then on Feb 28th/March 1st a major snowstorm mostly missed West KY even though Fulton KY got around 4 inches. In West and Mid TN upwards to 10 inches did fall.

Minor ice to rain events occurred on December 23rd and January 5th.

Better bring the rain coats

Monday and Tuesday look to be rainy days. Might want to bring in the raincoat for both days. It appears pretty cool on Tuesday with highs possibly not getting above 50.

This rain shouldn't cause any issues but it will snap our little dry streak we have going though.

The Grinch's Thanksgiving and December Forecast

The Grinch Forecast:

"I shall with help of the Pacific and +EPO cause an intense blowtorch of record warmth during Thanksgiving and throughout December with blowtorch for the Who's in Whoville throughout the holidays. I will even make the GFS and long range models show fake 160+ hour snowstorms and historic cold snaps to get everyone thinking it will be cold and snowy, but then take it all away. All of them will fry like Turkeys out there in the heat "Evil Laughs"

Signed
The Grinch
" the heart two sizes to small"

The NWS Bullet System

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=37469&source=0

A look at how the NWS will bullet the non precipitation and winter weather bulletins.

Dry and Warm Weekend

• Highs will be in the 69-72 range for West KY
• Mostly Sunny skies with clouds building in Sunday Night/Monday timeframe
• Get out and enjoy
  

Vote on the Poll over there

Happy Veterans Day

God Bless those who have served and continue to serve in our armed forces.

Your West Ky Forecast

Highs in the Low to Mid 60's across the land. With a nice little NE wind about 5 to 15MPH and grand sunny skies.

Survey Saids

Since we will have only one winter month in this decade a survey exists with the best West KY winter storms. These are just ones that impacted Western Kentucky with significance and widespreadness so some of the good Middle Tennessee Storms like 1/16/03 and 3/1/09 aren't on there.

So what storm do you have the most memories of.

NWS Winter Weather Awarness Links

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=37311&source=0

Let Her Torch

75 in Henderson
75 in Hopkinsville
74 in Paducah.

Mid ti upper 70's are possible tomorrow and maybe Monday as well.

And dry to sadly I think this pattern of 60's and 70's may continue into December.

Winter Weather Awareness Week

Is From November 16th-20th.

In which Winter Weather topics will be discussed that week so stay tuned.

Again for November to make it easier to access.

Click to enlarge the colorful map.

Remember I am not a meteorologist or an expert, but instead someone interested in the weather and this el nino.

As we descend into Fall there are still several conflicting factors. Right nwo we have a west based moderate El Nino it may go back to neutral or east or even basin wide. The strength part appears to be even more confusing. Somewhere in the 1.2-1.7C range for the peak ONI is what I am expecting. As continued warming although it slowed down in July and August continues. Also the PDO appears to be near neutral. A +1.2 or +1.3C compared to a +1.7 or +1.8C or even higher can mean way different results.

My Thoughts

• A Moderate El Nino that is west based or a Low End Strong EL Nino that is west based or neutral/basin wide. Thinking (+1.25to +1.7C)
  
• Average Siberia and Eurasia Snowfall started out very unfavorable but turned favorable.
  
• A West Based El Nino should keep the Pacific Jet in check and not allow it to ruin the systems, which could allow for a West Ridge and East Trough setup at times, although at other times especially if it gets in the strong range Pacific and Subtropical air could flood the nation and make the pattern unfavorable for most everyone.
  
• Low Sunspots may lower the chances for extended winter long warmth
• Some brief and intense Arctic Outbreaks are still possible although the el nino may lessen their duration and extent. Could be a big Arctic Outbreak possible in Late Jan/Feb period due to El Nino Climatology and a favorable Pacific Pattern if a -NAO can develop.
  
• An active Subtropical Jet running across South Texas though the Gulf Coast and occasional phasing with the northern polar stream will be the main weather makers.
• The NAO is hard to predict over 2 weeks in advance but I think it should be mostly neutral with positive periods and negative periods

My Month Overlook

December: Many El Nino years and many analogs are warmer than average on December. It isn't as easy as El Nino= Warm December. Factors like the NAO and PNA are at play with this one. This is the month the subtropical jet starts to crank, but the first part of this month after the cold snaps of October and maybe late November to will first moderate. This may be a boring weather month until after the 20th. Around Christmas and New Years Eve time-frame things could get interesting with a possible cold snap and an active subtropical jet. We can always hope for a white Christmas and New Years. The Pacfic Pattern may also be unfavorable allowing for some blowtorch into the pattern if a -NAO can occur it may negate some of the warmth.

January: This is where things get interesting. The Subtropical Jet will continue to crank out the December Cold could setup in Canada than move on though into the area. There will also probably be a few days of 60's and maybe even 70's ahead of big storms that could pay visit this month. Overall especially if the nao goes negative it can possibly get down right cold at times. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few winter events, and maybe a severe wx event from West KY and across the Southeast and East Coast this month as this could be an unsettled month.

February: This appears to probably be the coldest times for West KY and the East Coast the Pacfic and Subtropical Jets may moderate the month towards the end. The Potential for the NAO to go negative and also a favorable track across the East Coast could result in the funnest times for the winter. Also many analogs and el ninos like this support a cold February.

Overall- I feel the winter potential is low esp. in the first half of December, but depending on timing either after the Winter Solstice or sometime in Early to Mid Jan the pattern should favor more of a winter pattern the Pacific may be a little more favorable and Arctic invasions should occur at times. The El Nino will be an issue and I don't think it will weaken though the year except for maybe a slight weakening maybe in Jan and Feb that may allow for a stronger north stream. The Pacfic pattern may be horrible in Dec but gets slightly better into Jan and Feb.

If the El Nino stays West Based and in the ONI Peak +1.2-+1.5 range we will have better potential for a good winter

If it goes east based or basin wide and gets above +1.6ONI I think a lot of people will be disappointed in this winter and most of West Kentucky will be lucky to get to average in snowfall. Because the Subtropical Jet will dominate the pattern and severely limit the chance for arctic cold snaps.

November 1st

It is the first of November already.

For this week expect some average to slightly below average tempartures. And some dryness. A whole week of dryness with no rain.

That is been something that is been weird the first half of the month with zonal flow looks to be uneventful with average to maybe even above average early November temps so get out there and enjoy it.

HAPPY HALLOWS EVE

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!

HAPPY HALLOWS EVE!!!!

Clouds should clear throughout the day and clear out by the time the Halloween Festivities commence. The rain chances early exist to the south and east of West KY should the weather should be all clear.

The only concern is in the next few days the water along the Ohio/Miss. River convergence and the Green River at Paradise will be in the minor to maybe even close to Moderate flood stage so watch out for any high water in those areas esp in the low lying farmlands and river roads around. Not a major event but rare to see this in the fall.

Usually river flooding due to the summer heat evaporating and lowering the water and water in the soil content. Usually summer and fall are drier than the Winter and Spring. For West KY this has been the wettest October on record so it isn't all normal.

The Eve of Halloween outlook

Oct 30 update

2 to 4 inches west of US 45 with some flooding possible and a flash flood watch. 1 to 3 inches east with local ponding on the roads possible.

Link to the PAH weather briefing

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs

Includes Audio

Timing of the rain

West KY rain starts tomorrow. timing of heaviest rain in far NW KY starts in the wee morning hours of Friday and runs into Friday Night for the rest of West KY including Murray up to Madisonville and company it will be Friday Afternoon into Halloween Morning.

Up to 3 to 5 inches of rain should fall in this period.

This isn't expected to be a historic or very major, but could be an issue with steady moderate or heavier rains in a 24 hour period. Leafs can clog up some of the drainage areas leading to urban flooding.

Oct 28th outlook

When it Rains It Pours When It Rains a lot it is October 2009

We all know that October 2009 for Paducah is the wettest October on record. With this rain event and one upcoming it won't be close.

After a gradual rain event we are having now the attention pans to a system in the Thurs Night/Friday time frame.

The models are slowing a system down and streaming moisture on in. This could result in rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms some Thursday night and round Friday when the low system comes in. With the recent saturated grounds and record rainfall this is grounds for a potential flooding event. The best chance and heavier rains are most likely west of I-24 in which 3 to 5 inches or rain is quite possible and could cause a lot of issues.

Also even though there isn't a lot of instability a narrow line or cluster of severe storms may form along the front Friday and if this happens damaging winds are possible especially which such strong winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

Might be Model Reality?

That is one GFS run but it is consistency starting to show a potenial big system across the midwest. This is a long way out and still things can and will change, but it is very rare to see 130kts on a jet stream at 500mb.

This is something models don't put out too often.

Winter Outlook Update 09-10

Remember I am not a meteorologist or an expert, but instead someone interested in the weather and this el nino.

As we descend into Fall there are still several conflicting factors. Right nwo we have a west based moderate El Nino it may go back to neutral or east or even basin wide. The strength part appears to be even more confusing. Somewhere in the 1.2-1.7C range for the peak ONI is what I am expecting. As continued warming although it slowed down in July and August continues. Also the PDO appears to be near neutral. A +1.2 or +1.3C compared to a +1.7 or +1.8C or even higher can mean way different results.

My Thoughts

• A Moderate El Nino that is west based or a Low End Strong EL Nino that is west based or neutral/basin wide. Thinking (+1.25to +1.7C)
  
• Average Siberia and Eurasia Snowfall started out very unfavorable but turned favorable.
  
• A West Based El Nino should keep the Pacific Jet in check and not allow it to ruin the systems, which could allow for a West Ridge and East Trough setup at times, although at other times especially if it gets in the strong range Pacific and Subtropical air could flood the nation and make the pattern unfavorable for most everyone.
  
• Low Sunspots may lower the chances for extended winter long warmth
• Some brief and intense Arctic Outbreaks are still possible although the el nino may lessen their duration and extent. Could be a big Arctic Outbreak possible in Late Jan/Feb period due to El Nino Climatology and a favorable Pacific Pattern if a -NAO can develop.
  
• An active Subtropical Jet running across South Texas though the Gulf Coast and occasional phasing with the northern polar stream will be the main weather makers.
• The NAO is hard to predict over 2 weeks in advance but I think it should be mostly neutral with positive periods and negative periods

My Month Overlook

December: Many El Nino years and many analogs are warmer than average on December. It isn't as easy as El Nino= Warm December. Factors like the NAO and PNA are at play with this one. This is the month the subtropical jet starts to crank, but the first part of this month after the cold snaps of October and maybe late November to will first moderate. This may be a boring weather month until after the 20th. Around Christmas and New Years Eve time-frame things could get interesting with a possible cold snap and an active subtropical jet. We can always hope for a white Christmas and New Years. The Pacfic Pattern may also be unfavorable allowing for some blowtorch into the pattern if a -NAO can occur it may negate some of the warmth.

January: This is where things get interesting. The Subtropical Jet will continue to crank out the December Cold could setup in Canada than move on though into the area. There will also probably be a few days of 60's and maybe even 70's ahead of big storms that could pay visit this month. Overall especially if the nao goes negative it can possibly get down right cold at times. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few winter events, and maybe a severe wx event from West KY and across the Southeast and East Coast this month as this could be an unsettled month.

February: This appears to probably be the coldest times for West KY and the East Coast the Pacfic and Subtropical Jets may moderate the month towards the end. The Potential for the NAO to go negative and also a favorable track across the East Coast could result in the funnest times for the winter. Also many analogs and el ninos like this support a cold February.

Overall- I feel the winter potential is low esp. in the first half of December, but depending on timing either after the Winter Solstice or sometime in Early to Mid Jan the pattern should favor more of a winter pattern the Pacific may be a little more favorable and Arctic invasions should occur at times. The El Nino will be an issue and I don't think it will weaken though the year except for maybe a slight weakening maybe in Jan and Feb that may allow for a stronger north stream. The Pacfic pattern may be horrible in Dec but gets slightly better into Jan and Feb.

If the El Nino stays West Based and in the ONI Peak +1.2-+1.5 range we will have better potential for a good winter

If it goes east based or basin wide and gets above +1.6ONI I think a lot of people will be disappointed in this winter and most of West Kentucky will be lucky to get to average in snowfall. Because the Subtropical Jet will dominate the pattern and severely limit the chance for arctic cold snaps.

Fall Severe Weather Awareness Day

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/swaw/fall_severe_weather_awareness.php

Frost Again

Frost Advisory time

Freeze possible Sat/Sun Night

Freeze Warning has been issued for Paris TN with a low of 29 expected.

With more clearing expected Saturday Night a freeze is possible in West KY with lows in the 31-34 range quite possible. Also near freezing temps are possible east of the Lakes Sunday Night as well.

Take precautions and bring in plants, and if you can't cover them up and protect them if you can.

Post 1,000

This is post 1,000 on the West KY Weather Blogspot :)

Though the ice storm of 2008-2009, the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008, and the March 2008 Snowstorm/Blizzard.

West KY weather has kept West KY updated on those significant weather events.

Frost is Possible this weekend

Due to a cool high and Canadian air coming down frost is possible. The last one didn't pan out but there is confidence that this cold snap will.

Clouds may prevent the risk Saturday, but Sunday with radational cooling may provide a frost or even possibility a freeze in low lying areas. stay tuned.

My Facebook Status

the great forecast. Rain today, Rain tommorow. no heavy rain/ or severe wx thankfully Slight Chance of rain and clouds this weekend and cool. Sunday the sun comes out with a high of 57 so at least Sunday will be nice at least for me. Except for S...unday and the fact that there will not be any severe wx or flooding this status is why facebook should have a dislike button on it.

Cloudy and clear

Luckily we survived Thursday Night without an event. Some heavy rain and local flooding but that was about it.

The frost threat is gone due to cloudcover and a pesky little ridge to form over the SE to keep the lows warm.

Still temps will be mostly love and confront for us in West KY this week.

Oct 9th overview

Autumn can mean A tornado threat

Low topped supercells are still in the works for West KY than potential for a squall line. The warm front from Hickman to near Hopkinsville may focus some storms. Due to lacking instability the threat may not be quite as bad as once feared, but also overnight the dynamics will come together and could cuase some ugly storms to form.

Stay tuned and keep your NOAA weather radios and other weather sources. in handy tonight into tomorrow morning.

Tornado Watch 763 for West KY and Paris TN till 3am

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

TORNADO WATCH 761 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-090800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0761.091009T0100Z-091009T0800Z/

KY
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CALDWELL            CALLOWAY
CARLISLE             CHRISTIAN           CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS              FULTON              GRAVES
HENDERSON            HICKMAN             HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON           LYON                MARSHALL
MCCRACKEN            MCLEAN              MUHLENBERG
TODD                 TRIGG               UNION
WEBSTER
$$

Flood Advisorys for NW KY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
433 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

INC147-KYC059-107-149-177-233-090030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0105.091008T2133Z-091009T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SPENCER IN-DAVIESS KY-MCLEAN KY-WEBSTER KY-HOPKINS KY-MUHLENBERG KY-
433 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
 DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
 SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 432 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 3/4 INCH PER HOUR MOVING INTO AND OVER ALREADY SATURATED OR
NEAR SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION AND EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE OWENSBORO METRO AREA. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
FLOOD PRONE AREAS LIKE THE LLOYD EXPRESSWAY IN EVANSVILLE...AND
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH COULD LIKEWISE TOP
THEIR BANKS. CITY STREETS MAY FLOOD AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 8698 3780 8682 3767 8683 3748 8711
     3737 8710 3722 8690 3709 8691 3716 8771
     3731 8785 3737 8781 3741 8794 3747 8794
     3764 8774 3767 8743 3778 8728 3789 8732
     3813 8703 3821 8702 3821 8680 3801 8677

$$

Final update for October 8th

Click Map to Enlarge!!!!

Oct 8th update big changes in the forecast.

Click for an larger image.

Oct 8th

Heavy Rain and strong storms are possible today and tomorrow. The biggest threat is flood potenial esp. in Union and Henderson Counties where a flood watch is in effect.

Watch for frost potential and temps in the mid 30's on Monday Night.

Click to enlarge map for more details.

Oct 8th-9th Rainy Days

Flood Watch for Union and Henderson counties in West KY.

Oct 7th overview.

Oct 6th overview

October Facts.

Almost happy Halloween. The first full fall month and the month that contains Halloween is here. Trick or Treat.

As far as weather what type of treats are expected for Western KY as far as weather averages go:

Hopkinsville: (using PAH now data from 1971-2000)
High: 70.9
Low: 45.2
Precip: 3.30

Average First Freeze (32 or below) Oct 19th

Paducah: (using PAH now data from 1971-2000)
High: 71.2
Low: 46.8
Precip: 3.45

Average First Freeze (32 or below) Oct 25th

Providence: (PAH data 1979-2000)

High: 71.8
Low: 46.4
Precip: 3.09

Average First Freeze (32 or below) Oct 21st

The overall average period the freeze for all West KY areas is somewhere on average from Oct 21st to the 28th.

Some strange scary October Facts:
- Several big time severe weather events have unfolded this month esp. this decade across Western Kentucky. 10/24/2001, 10/18/2004, and a record tornado event as far as number of tornadoes reported in the West Kentucky 24, 10/18/2007.
- Snow has been reported in Late October around Halloween in the years of 1925, 1957, and 1993. Some of these snow events have put down up to 4 inches across parts of West KY for the trick or treaters around.
- On October 6th 2007 a record 98 degrees was recorded in Princeton KY and was the hottest October temperature ever recorded not only in West KY but in Kentucky as a whole.

The cool weather

- Highs in the upper 60's to around 70
- Clear and sunny skies
- Finally Fall weather is here

After two very nice days followed by another nice day Thursday things remain nice till Thursday Night/Friday in which we will have to monitor a system for the potential for a few strong storms. Than we continue the nice weather though the weekend.

The FOG !!!!

Confidence Level of fog 4 out of 5.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
938 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
110>112-114-271000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FG.Y.0006.090927T0500Z-090927T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-STODDARD-SCOTT-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
938 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION
AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

Amber Alert

INC025-037-123-KYC027-085-091-163-183-270300-

CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
353 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009 /253 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
DAVIESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

THE DAVIESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING FOR HALEY
WILLETT...A 13 YEAR OLD CAUCASIAN FEMALE WITH BLONDE HAIR AND BLUE
EYES. SHE IS 5 FEET FIVE INCHES TALL AND WEIGHS 102 POUNDS. THE
EVENT OCCURRED AT JULIA AVENUE IN OWENSBORO AT 430 THIS MORNING.
SHE WAS LAST SEEN WEARING SHORT BLUE JEAN SHORTS AND A WHITE TANK
TOP.

THE SUSPECT IS ARCHIE WHALEN DESCRIBED AS BEING A 43 YEAR OLD
CAUCASIAN MALE WITH BROWN HAIR...HAZEL EYES AND IS 6 FEET TALL AND
WEIGHS 200 POUNDS. THE VEHICLE IS A 1999 CHEVY SILVERADO WITH A
MAINE LICENSE NUMBER OF 8017RF. THE TRUCK HAS A SLEEP IN CAMPER ON
THE BACK.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THIS INCIDENT LPLEASE CALL 911 OR
CONTACT THE DAVIESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT AT 270 685 8444.

$$

T-storm Watch 744 for West KY till 9

 SEL4
 
  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 744
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  230 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009
 
  THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
 
         PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
         SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA
         MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
         PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
 
  EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CDT.
 
  HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
  MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
 
  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
  STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
  NORTHEAST OF SALEM ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
  PADUCAH KENTUCKY.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
  ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
 
  REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
  FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
  AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
  THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
  AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
  DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
 
  DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD
  OF UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MO.  SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
  COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
  PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
  WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP EWD.
 
  AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
  TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
  KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
  MOTION VECTOR 25025.
 
 
  ...HALES

Fog gives away to chance of storms

Forgot to put this in the map but still low confidence so just a confidence level of 1 in the Severe Storms area. And 1 in the Strong Storms area.

Beware out there fogs it is a foggy morning. Also this could give away to a few storms some in which may have hail potential in them. Also locally strong winds may also occur around NW KY close to the Ohio River.

Rain continues into Saturday.

The flooding threat has shifted east and severe weather in unlikely now due to no instability. Still locally heavy rain can occur in any bands east of the lakes that form. Though Saturday morning and afternoon.

After Saturday a more fall like airmass moves across the area.

The Rains Continue on

The rains continue on for West KY though Saturday. Clearing should occur thankfully today still local heavy rain can occur and continue Saturday.

Some locally heavy rain showers may impact some college football games Saturday afternoon and evening.

3 years ago Sept 22nd-23rd flooding/severe wx

A complex setup of severe weather came about in the first days of actual fall in 2006. It in some areas actually upstaged the football games going on that weekend.

A warm front on Friday September 22nd focused several storms mostly supercells which gradually turned into clusters and short line segments. On the evening of the 22nd four tornadoes occurred. 3 F1's and 1 Fo. The most damage occurred along the riverfront in Livingston County the supercell than moved across Crittenden County and into Webster County in which a store was deroofed and a mobile home thrown and destroyed across the road in Crittenden County. Also a F1 did minor damage in Whitesville in eastern Daviess County. These 3 tornadoes were all F1 and were all part of one supercell storm.

A minor line also caused one brief F0 and wind damage across West KY later that night but mostly flooding. As lines of storms and clusters would move across the same areas over and over again from early on Sept 22nd though early Sept 24th. At the end of the period some areas in West KY esp from Eddyville and Murray west towards Fulton received more than 11 inches of rain. Some areas required many water rescues and had many buildings flooded.
Over 100 water rescues occurred across Kentucky in this event.

Funnel clouds, one Ballard County F1 tornado, isolated wind damage and more flooding occurred with the cold front and main line on Sept 23rd

Local Ponding

Local Flooding issues are possible in heavier rain showers. Not major but since the ground is saturated this could be an issue.

The confidence Level map

More soggy conditions

Will it rain more?

Yes

Will it still be humid?

Yes sadly.

But there may be some slight changes with a slow moving cold front as it moves across the area this weekend. Until then scattered thunderstorms some with heavy rain will be a commonplace across Western Kentucky throughout the weekend. Come Friday and into Saturday some of the storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds possible and also contain heavy rain

Fall Season Severe WX

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=cool_season_severe_weather

more on this later on this weekend

Rain Episode 762

Rain and thunderstorms some could be heavy tonight and early tomorrow.

Confidence Level of 1 out of 5 for flooding.

Some storms could put down locally heavy rain so beware of ponding on roads for heavier rain episodes.

Flash Flood Warning Eastern Henderson/Western Daviess KY

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
KYC059-101-210130-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0061.090920T2226Z-090921T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
 DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.

* AT 522 PM CDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM A THUNDERSTORM
 OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
 MASONVILLE...
 ST. JOSEPH...
 OWENSBORO...
 STANLEY...

RAINFALL FROM EARLIER STORMS PRODUCED AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE WARNED AREA
...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES...
ESPECAILLY OVER THE CITY OF OWENSBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8706 3767 8734 3784 8725 3784 8718
     3777 8711 3780 8706 3789 8704 3793 8699
     3789 8698 3788 8692

$$

Rainy Weekend

Big time flooding occurred with a stalled out subtropical low across Mid Tn west towards Arkansas. As a low became cut off from the northern stream it has nothing to push it away.

With the moisture and low southward Western Kentucky hasn't really seen the effects of the heavy rain, but some locally heavy rain could move into the area this weekend into next week so we will watch that.

A cold front is expected to move into the area but weaken before it can have a big impact on the area.

Flood Watch for N Mid TN mostly north of I-40 or from Camden to Murfreesboro to Crossville TN north. and stopping at the KY border with rain chances but not being real significant as you go into KY.

1 year ago from today.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=strongwindswithike

A good link.


A intense windstorm unfolding across Western Kentucky during the morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday September, 14th, 2008. Remnants of Hurricane Ike intercepted a strong cold front around Northeast Arkansas. As the system become extra-tropical and moved along the fast moving cold front it raced across SE MO, Central IN, to NW OH and into Ontario. With dry air aloft mixing down of strong winds some 90MPH a few thousand feet above the ground led to wind gusts across West KY over 50MPH all across the West KY 22

Max gusts were of Hurricane force around Calvert City and isolated areas around Owensboro. Several areas were without power some esp in the more rural counties in far West KY were without power for several days. ALso 17 injuries occured in Hopkins County but no deaths occurred. Damages in the 22 West KY area were over 60million dollars.

The Just for Fun Preliminary Winter Outlook

After a D Grade for a horrible forecast and prediction for last year, in which Feb was the only month that was close and despite going into a weak la nina like I expected it didn't quite go down like I thought it would. 2007-08 I did better but went to cold in Dec, but accurately was correct when I called it a battleground winter.

Now it is going into Fall 2009 and with winter 2009 in just a little less than 3 months ahead we will go into our first glimpse of Winter.

Last Winter for West KY was mostly a one hit wonder with an historic Ice Storm that struck the area from Jan 26th-28th time frame. In which set a record number of power outages for the state of Kentucky, disrupted communication, and left some without power for 3 weeks to a month after the storm. Also a big gulf low turned nor' easter gave Fulton KY 4 inches which that tampered and abruptly shifted SE even south of Nashville to give the southern half of that state an historic snowstorm, and the Cumberland Plateau a nasty quick hitting ice storm. Also the Dec cold air busted as record warmth and highs in the 60's and 70's occurred from the Day after Christmas towards New Years.

Some things to potentially come into a play this winter include AO(arctic oscillation), NAO(north Atlantic oscillation), any potential for high pressure to set up in Greenland (Greenland Block), other Pacific Measurements and scales, other factors mets. and others do not have a good grasp on, and just as important as the others, but not a final judgment as some would have you to believe EL NINO.


Typically an negative AO is good for arctic air to come to the East US, -NAO is good a long as it is not too east based to set up cold air, Greenland block holds cold from the Ozarks eastward, The Pacfic is a great measurement to as last year there were several storms ruined as the record strong Pacific Jet sheared a lot of storms apart of course excluding the Ice Storm and Late Feb-Early March Gulf Low/Nor Easter.

TO LOOK AHEAD

This winter features a EL NINO, what looks a negative PDO even though it could break positive it doesn't look to strongly negative or positive. If any Greenland Block can occur we could have an extended cold snap, and if low solar activity can effect this winter than it may led to cooler departures.

One thing that is important is that not all El Ninos are the same. Even though Stronger El Ninos are more El Nino dominated patterns, and have a lot of similarities. Even 82-83 and 97-98 had it's differences as analogs can't tell and are not supposed to be used to predict exact patterns, but only for guidance. Every El Nino winter has small scale patterns a lot that we don't even understand that involves snowfall and even temperature and overall precipitation anomalies. Other factors such as NAO, AO, PNA, PDO are equally as important.

Most all El Ninos have some things in common. A strong southern jet, usually several Nor' Easters, and usually drought/flood cycle in parts of Asia and South America can be interrupted.

Some myths of El Ninos which occurred in several El Nino events but aren't 100 or near 100% as some may think

- Not all El Ninos led to warm arctic and not all El Ninos lack arctic outbreaks.
- Not all El Ninos are dryer than average in West KY or Mid TN even though several are.
- Not all El Ninos give a good snowy winter 62-63, 63-64, 69-70, the later 70's, 02-03 might of been great snowy winters, but some other El Nino winters like 90-91, 91-92, 94-95, 06-07 did not provide good winters. There is more to it than El Nino.

There are two major factors that determine El Nino those are placement, and strength.

West Based- More colder for the east and less Pacific influence

Neutral Based- Can be eventful for the east as long as the Atlantic and Pacific cooperates.

East Based- Can lead to a warmer conditions but if the -NAO and the El Nino is weak it usually can stay favorable.

Weak EL Nino- +0.5C-+0.99C Usually the most favorable ENSO of them all for the East.

Moderate EL Nino- +1.0C-1.49C Can be favorable if West/Neutral Based and if the NAO and AO corporate.

Strong EL Nino- +1.5C and above. There is some hope if it is lower than +1.8C like 57-58. Other than that it is mostly a subtropical like climate in which the super tropical jet and EL Nino takes over the pattern. If any arctic air can mix some heavy wet snow events can fall though.

My just for fun Prediction:
Placement(neutral/slightly East based)
Strength (Moderate +1.3-1.35 peak)

With a PDO which is also important around neutral to slightly negative.

A brief pattern breakdown in which more than likely there could be nina like pattern changes esp. early in the winter with the subtropical jet influence mixing with the colder air to the north. There could be a few quick hitting arctic outbreaks early from November to December but with a nino and esp. if a block doesn't setup in Greenland they may not be sustainable. February could favor a big cool down esp. by analogs and the potential for the effects of the nino to weaken and allow the cold air to filter in more.

The Memory Remains

In a post that doesn't deal with weather today is the 8th year anniversary of 9/11.

This event shaped everyone young and old forever. Children like I was back in 6th grade were forever changed as the world suddenly became colder and more hostile. The political and mental landscape of America would never be the same. As many good people lost there lives not knowing that September 11th would be the last day. God bless all the victims throughout the hard time.

This event really makes you think about the sacrifice that the men and women of our armed forces are doing, by putting the country and the people's freedom's first even over their own self is an amazing feat, and we are glad to honor these great and brave people.

Also this event gives you insight to live each day like it is your last; because you never know what might happen even a few minutes from now.

9/11 a day that we will never forget.

West KY fog later

Fog possible tonight and tomorrow across West KY. more details later today.

The Fog (2009)

Dense Fog some locally dense possible tonight and tomm morning again

Confidence Level of 4 out of 5 for this.

Locally Heavy Rain, Isolated strong storms, and lightning are possible esp from a Hickman to Cadiz to Greenville Kentucky Line south.

In Trigg and Calloway Counties in KY and Henry and Stewart in TN watch out if your on the lakes as lightning and heavy rain can be real threats.

Locally Heavy Rain possible again

NWS Flood Advisories

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

KYC101-052315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0085.090905T2117Z-090905T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON KY-
417 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
 CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 415 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
 DOWNPOURS NEAR HENDERSON AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HENDERSON
 COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OVER TWO INCHES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 8785 3783 8762 3790 8755 3791 8743
     3774 8745 3771 8769

$$

---

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
402 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

KYC145-052300-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0084.090905T2102Z-090905T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCCRACKEN KY-
402 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
 MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 359 PM CDT...REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
 DOWNPOURS NEAR PADUCAH AND OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MCCRACKEN
 COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OVER TWO INCHES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 8880 3706 8858 3698 8861 3698 8883

$$

Sept 5th local flooding possible.

Special Weather Statement Cold Air Funnels

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

KYZ001>006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022-MOZ110>112-114-050200-
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-
CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...
ELKTON...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

...COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...

SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM...COLD AIR FUNNELS WERE REPORTED OVER THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. THESE COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA....
NAMELY THE PURCHASE AND SOUTHERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. UNDERNEATH THESE SHOWERS...
SPINNING COLUMNS OF AIR THAT LOOK LIKE FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP. THESE FUNNELS USUALLY ARE VERY BRIEF AND RARELY TOUCH
THE GROUND. IF THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH DOWN...THEY MOST LIKELY WILL
NOT CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE DUE TO VERY COOL AIR ALOFT...WARM MOIST AIR
NEAR THE GROUND...AND ARE USUALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
AREA  OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DUE
TO LITTLE OR NO WIND SHEAR...THEY ARE USUALLY WEAK AND VERY
BRIEF.

$$

RJP

Sept 3

September Rain

Locally heavy rain is occurring today. There is a possibility of more today but some locally heavy rain and even minor flooding has occurred this morning from these storms.

Welcome to Meterological Fall.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the low 50's signal the first day of meteorological fall. Astronomical Fall occurs around Sept 23rd during the Fall Equniox where the sun shines brightest on the equinox and day and night are equal or near equal.

Rain than another cooldown

Chances of rain and thunder which should be non-severe continue today and tonight. Starting for the main weekend the weather should dry up and cool off. It can be quite cool for Late August and into Early September which could mean that my warm September prediction can be in danger.

There is a little bit of uncertainty on how cold it will get but if more aggressive predictions come true than record lows can be broken or threaten. It will be a cool down probably even cooler than the last one with temps in the low and mid 70's on Sunday and Monday and lows from 49-55. It should gradually warm up to at least the low to mid 80's as the week goes on.

Tied Record Low

A record low was tied at Paducah. In which it reached 54 this morning.

Lows in the upper 50's are foretasted for west ky tomorrow but no records are threatened.

Touch of Fall

Like Late July highs only in the 70's today and tomorrow with lows in the 50's.

Still kind of unusual but unlike July which has a higher sun angle 70's in August isn't as rare and unlike July this won't be record breaking, but it is a sign that fall is on it's way sooner than probably many people want it to be.

locally heavy rain tonight/ tommorow.

With the reminisce of Claudette some locally heavy rain can be expected but widespread severe wx or flooding isn't expected at this time.

Aug 11th

It is almost Fall Time

Besides some of the misspellings on my picture it is that time of year. The time where schools and colleges start and summer depending on your attitude ends and the cooler seasons (Fall and Winter) begin. It is too early to talk about winter time, but we will get ready for that a step towards winter.

Here is a fall overlook and my predictions. These outlooks aren't 100% as we found out with my winter predictions last year, but some analogs, El Nino, and how the models and the pattern are going in the summer influence how I think fall could go, but we all know the good lord above doesn't follow my predictions and gives us some surprises.

Fall is defined by Sept-Nov. Meteorological Fall starts on September 1st, and Astrological Fall and the most familiar and official fall date is around Sept 21st-23rd during the Fall Equinox (where day/night hours are even) every year.

Lets start the outlook.

SEPTEMBER: Several hundred miles to our west away from those great troughs of relief lays one small area from South/West Oklahoma down into Central, Southern, and Eastern Texas that is has had a summer from Dante's Inferno. This was due to the ridge that this weekend we are having a small taste of before it moves back to the west. Eventually unless somethings happens to lock this pattern and that ridge over Texas which can't be ruled out this ridge will be in West Kentucky. During later this month and into September, with this ridge in place we might see some of the hottest temperatures that at least could be as potent as the late June Heat wave that we forgot about after having the 2nd-4th coolest July on record if not even higher. This ridge should keep September warm and probably dry to which would be relief for our wet summer, but I am only predicting slightly below average precip since September usually is a decently dry month, and there is potential for some type of peak in tropical activity that could keep us wet so precipitation is very unknown. Overall I expect departures (+2.5-3.5) like the last two years where a ridge was in effect for at least part of the month.

OCTOBER: I don't think with the El Nino and the fact that ridges in the fall don't tend to last as long as in the summer that we will have to deal with this like Texas has. In matter of fact this ridge may move back to the plains and TX and even maybe the West Coast or move eastward and form another ridge towards the west coast. This at least for part of the month should put down a trough along with cold front passages and some arctic air. With this average precipitation should occur and a cooler pattern if any subtropical pattern can set up along with this a severe wx event may or may not occur. Also the freeze should be at least average which average freeze ranges from October 21st in NW KY and October 25th in SW KY, and I think we should be average or slightly earlier than average with the occasional cold front crossings.

NOVEMBER: This is one of my favorite weather months of the year. This late fall month often spells some interesting systems to at least track that make the transition from fall into winter. Last November wasn't that eventful, but at least this one could be. Being this is the farthest month from our outlook it is hard to predict for. With El Nino being in bloom by this month the subtropical jet should at least start to set up and as long as we don't have record setting cold fronts like last time in Late October than the gulf should have enough unstable moisture to mix with maybe not a very active but at least present Arctic/North Stream. So several storms could from esp. along any Pacific Cold Front and esp. if there is enough Arctic for an Arctic Cold Front than interesting tracking times at least will be had. The NAO may try to go negative during November which may make this game of predicting the weather even funner if that can happen. This month may have forecasters pulling out their hair anything from severe weather to measurable snow to nothing actually happening, but a lot of model teases can all happen.


That is the fall outlook lets hope it does better, and hope we have a great, safe, and blessed Fall 2009

Damage Survey for Christian County KY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR CHRISTIAN COUNTY KENTUCKY...

THE FOLLOWING IS THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR A DOWNBURST WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES THAT OCCURRED JUST NORTH OF HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AUGUST 4TH, 2009.

* EVENT DATE - TUESDAY AUGUST 4 2009

* EVENT TIME - APPROX. 655 PM CDT

* EVENT TYPE - DOWNBURST WITH EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES

* EVENT LOCATION - 2.7 MILES NORTH OF HOPKINSVILLE TO JUST EAST OF
EXIT 12 ON THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY.

* PEAK WIND - 80 MPH WITH 2 EMBEDDED EF0 TORNADOES

* AVERAGE PATH WIDTH - UNKNOWN

* PATH LENGTH - 1.5 MILES

* INJURIES - 1 INJURY. STORM SPOTTER STRUCK BY FLYING PIECE OF WOOD
WHICH RESULTED IN A BADLY BRUISED SHOULDER

* FATALITIES - NONE

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE - EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRED ALONG
DOWNBURST PATH. FIRST BRIEF TOUCHDOWN...EYEWITNESSED BY A
TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTER...BEGAN AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 41
AND THE BYPASS (1682) AND TRAVELED JUST NORTH OF THE BYPASS FOR
ABOUT ONE HALF MILE. DAMAGE INCLUDED 2 FIBERGLASS LIGHT POLES
SNAPPED AT BASE...SEVERAL TREES SNAPPED AND LARGE LIMBS BROKEN.
ADDITIONAL BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE PENNYRILE
PARKWAY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BYPASS (1682). DAMAGE INCLUDED
A ROOF BEING TORN OFF OF A METAL STORAGE BUILDING WHICH WAS
BLOWN NORTH BACK ACROSS THE HIGHWAY.

SURVEYOR...WIELGOS

The morning sun rises

Did I just underestimated the confidence level map again yesterday I think I did.

We got lucky on the flooding as the storms picked up southward motion and only caused minor flash flooding across Western Kentucky. That is a great relief.

There are several wind damage areas some could be surveyed.

Including Ballard, McCracken, Christian, and Caldwell counties is where the locallized pockets of wind damage occurred. It will be interesting to see if a survey will come out and see if it was wind damage, how high the winds were, or even if there were brief tornado touchdowns within the wind damage.

Also the kids in Christian County due to the storm damage missed school on the first day. So at least for them summer extended one day.

Flooding is reported in Paducah. Heavy rain and flash floooding potential will continue overnight. While the cleanup from some of the damage from the derecho will occur tommrow. There will be scatted t-storms around to dodge around.

More updates on damage tomorrow morning.

Turn Around and Don't Drown

Update on storms

Several reports of wind damage are being reported across West KY. Paducah has a mobile home roof ripped off. Stop lights are out limbs down and funnel cloud sightings occurred in Hopkinsville. Princeton has some structure damage and so does parts of Ballard County.

Measurements of 65 to 70MPH were also reported as the MCS/Derecho moved though.

I may be wrong when I said it was over.

More storms just are firing in SE MO into West KY that could be strong to severe and also a nasty flooding threat may set up due to all the heavy rain and the slow moving NW to SE moving band of storms moving into West Kentucky from Southeast Missouri.