The Just for Fun Preliminary Winter Outlook

After a D Grade for a horrible forecast and prediction for last year, in which Feb was the only month that was close and despite going into a weak la nina like I expected it didn't quite go down like I thought it would. 2007-08 I did better but went to cold in Dec, but accurately was correct when I called it a battleground winter.

Now it is going into Fall 2009 and with winter 2009 in just a little less than 3 months ahead we will go into our first glimpse of Winter.

Last Winter for West KY was mostly a one hit wonder with an historic Ice Storm that struck the area from Jan 26th-28th time frame. In which set a record number of power outages for the state of Kentucky, disrupted communication, and left some without power for 3 weeks to a month after the storm. Also a big gulf low turned nor' easter gave Fulton KY 4 inches which that tampered and abruptly shifted SE even south of Nashville to give the southern half of that state an historic snowstorm, and the Cumberland Plateau a nasty quick hitting ice storm. Also the Dec cold air busted as record warmth and highs in the 60's and 70's occurred from the Day after Christmas towards New Years.

Some things to potentially come into a play this winter include AO(arctic oscillation), NAO(north Atlantic oscillation), any potential for high pressure to set up in Greenland (Greenland Block), other Pacific Measurements and scales, other factors mets. and others do not have a good grasp on, and just as important as the others, but not a final judgment as some would have you to believe EL NINO.


Typically an negative AO is good for arctic air to come to the East US, -NAO is good a long as it is not too east based to set up cold air, Greenland block holds cold from the Ozarks eastward, The Pacfic is a great measurement to as last year there were several storms ruined as the record strong Pacific Jet sheared a lot of storms apart of course excluding the Ice Storm and Late Feb-Early March Gulf Low/Nor Easter.

TO LOOK AHEAD

This winter features a EL NINO, what looks a negative PDO even though it could break positive it doesn't look to strongly negative or positive. If any Greenland Block can occur we could have an extended cold snap, and if low solar activity can effect this winter than it may led to cooler departures.

One thing that is important is that not all El Ninos are the same. Even though Stronger El Ninos are more El Nino dominated patterns, and have a lot of similarities. Even 82-83 and 97-98 had it's differences as analogs can't tell and are not supposed to be used to predict exact patterns, but only for guidance. Every El Nino winter has small scale patterns a lot that we don't even understand that involves snowfall and even temperature and overall precipitation anomalies. Other factors such as NAO, AO, PNA, PDO are equally as important.

Most all El Ninos have some things in common. A strong southern jet, usually several Nor' Easters, and usually drought/flood cycle in parts of Asia and South America can be interrupted.

Some myths of El Ninos which occurred in several El Nino events but aren't 100 or near 100% as some may think

- Not all El Ninos led to warm arctic and not all El Ninos lack arctic outbreaks.
- Not all El Ninos are dryer than average in West KY or Mid TN even though several are.
- Not all El Ninos give a good snowy winter 62-63, 63-64, 69-70, the later 70's, 02-03 might of been great snowy winters, but some other El Nino winters like 90-91, 91-92, 94-95, 06-07 did not provide good winters. There is more to it than El Nino.

There are two major factors that determine El Nino those are placement, and strength.

West Based- More colder for the east and less Pacific influence

Neutral Based- Can be eventful for the east as long as the Atlantic and Pacific cooperates.

East Based- Can lead to a warmer conditions but if the -NAO and the El Nino is weak it usually can stay favorable.

Weak EL Nino- +0.5C-+0.99C Usually the most favorable ENSO of them all for the East.

Moderate EL Nino- +1.0C-1.49C Can be favorable if West/Neutral Based and if the NAO and AO corporate.

Strong EL Nino- +1.5C and above. There is some hope if it is lower than +1.8C like 57-58. Other than that it is mostly a subtropical like climate in which the super tropical jet and EL Nino takes over the pattern. If any arctic air can mix some heavy wet snow events can fall though.

My just for fun Prediction:
Placement(neutral/slightly East based)
Strength (Moderate +1.3-1.35 peak)

With a PDO which is also important around neutral to slightly negative.

A brief pattern breakdown in which more than likely there could be nina like pattern changes esp. early in the winter with the subtropical jet influence mixing with the colder air to the north. There could be a few quick hitting arctic outbreaks early from November to December but with a nino and esp. if a block doesn't setup in Greenland they may not be sustainable. February could favor a big cool down esp. by analogs and the potential for the effects of the nino to weaken and allow the cold air to filter in more.