It is almost Fall Time

Besides some of the misspellings on my picture it is that time of year. The time where schools and colleges start and summer depending on your attitude ends and the cooler seasons (Fall and Winter) begin. It is too early to talk about winter time, but we will get ready for that a step towards winter.

Here is a fall overlook and my predictions. These outlooks aren't 100% as we found out with my winter predictions last year, but some analogs, El Nino, and how the models and the pattern are going in the summer influence how I think fall could go, but we all know the good lord above doesn't follow my predictions and gives us some surprises.

Fall is defined by Sept-Nov. Meteorological Fall starts on September 1st, and Astrological Fall and the most familiar and official fall date is around Sept 21st-23rd during the Fall Equinox (where day/night hours are even) every year.

Lets start the outlook.

SEPTEMBER: Several hundred miles to our west away from those great troughs of relief lays one small area from South/West Oklahoma down into Central, Southern, and Eastern Texas that is has had a summer from Dante's Inferno. This was due to the ridge that this weekend we are having a small taste of before it moves back to the west. Eventually unless somethings happens to lock this pattern and that ridge over Texas which can't be ruled out this ridge will be in West Kentucky. During later this month and into September, with this ridge in place we might see some of the hottest temperatures that at least could be as potent as the late June Heat wave that we forgot about after having the 2nd-4th coolest July on record if not even higher. This ridge should keep September warm and probably dry to which would be relief for our wet summer, but I am only predicting slightly below average precip since September usually is a decently dry month, and there is potential for some type of peak in tropical activity that could keep us wet so precipitation is very unknown. Overall I expect departures (+2.5-3.5) like the last two years where a ridge was in effect for at least part of the month.

OCTOBER: I don't think with the El Nino and the fact that ridges in the fall don't tend to last as long as in the summer that we will have to deal with this like Texas has. In matter of fact this ridge may move back to the plains and TX and even maybe the West Coast or move eastward and form another ridge towards the west coast. This at least for part of the month should put down a trough along with cold front passages and some arctic air. With this average precipitation should occur and a cooler pattern if any subtropical pattern can set up along with this a severe wx event may or may not occur. Also the freeze should be at least average which average freeze ranges from October 21st in NW KY and October 25th in SW KY, and I think we should be average or slightly earlier than average with the occasional cold front crossings.

NOVEMBER: This is one of my favorite weather months of the year. This late fall month often spells some interesting systems to at least track that make the transition from fall into winter. Last November wasn't that eventful, but at least this one could be. Being this is the farthest month from our outlook it is hard to predict for. With El Nino being in bloom by this month the subtropical jet should at least start to set up and as long as we don't have record setting cold fronts like last time in Late October than the gulf should have enough unstable moisture to mix with maybe not a very active but at least present Arctic/North Stream. So several storms could from esp. along any Pacific Cold Front and esp. if there is enough Arctic for an Arctic Cold Front than interesting tracking times at least will be had. The NAO may try to go negative during November which may make this game of predicting the weather even funner if that can happen. This month may have forecasters pulling out their hair anything from severe weather to measurable snow to nothing actually happening, but a lot of model teases can all happen.


That is the fall outlook lets hope it does better, and hope we have a great, safe, and blessed Fall 2009