Tuesday Will Rock SPC does it

SPC AC 040653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN LA...ERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN AND CENTRAL MS...AND NWRN AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN /OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL LOW INVOF OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE SHIFTING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW THEN CONTINUES ENEWD UP THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE S CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 06/12Z. ...E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS... WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS APPARENT THIS PERIOD FROM THE S CENTRAL CONUS EWD/NEWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND NEWD ACROSS AR INTO THE OH VALLEY...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD INTO AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD...COOLING ALOFT ABOVE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FROM W TO E WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...80 TO 90 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION...ATOP A 60 TO 70-PLUS KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH FLOW INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT AND VEERING FROM SLY AT THE SURFACE TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM MODE WILL BE A MIX OF LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED COMPLEX STRUCTURES...AND SUPERCELLULAR. WHILE GENERALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND THE FORECAST DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SIGNIFICANT EVENTS. PROBABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REFLECTS THE FACT THAT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...AS STRONG SHEAR BUT VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET...AS ANY EXISTING INSTABILITY DIURNALLY DIMINISHES. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD FURTHER S...PARTICULARLY INTO ERN TN/AL/NWRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 02/04/2008