Got an Inch and a half

I got an inch and a half of pure good ol snow. Several pcitures i have taken this winter will be up in March just in time for our Winter 2007-2008 SUmmary.

A little snow wonders

In West KY 1 to as high as 2-3 inches of snow in West KY mostly east of the lakes has closed schools, made travel hazardous, and cause children to play in it.

Dusting to an Inch today

Dusting to an inch of snowi n any moisture left over by this strong cold front. So could get a little white on the ground today and tonight

My Mighty Monday

Forecast: Clouds in the afternoon with highs in the mid 50's across the western bluegrass. Some rain and maype a thunderstorm that may be briefly be strong south of a Fulton to Murray KY line is possible tonight but some rain and rain slick roadways are the threat tonight and early tomorrow. Tomorrow west ky changes to snow and anywhere from a dusting to an inch can occur depending on how much backlash moisture is present.

Suprise White Stuff in West KY

A line from Paduach to Sturgis to Madisonville KY got an half inch to an inch of snow. This led to travel problems but temps in the 40's melted those away. Temps will be in the mid to upper 50's tommrow with mostly rain with maype a rumble of thunder no severe expected.

NWS Paduach overview of Feb 21st icing

As you can see most of the big time problems were from a Bardwell to Livermore KY line north. The Mayfield, Murray, and Hopkinsville, and Greenville/Central City KY areas got around 1/10 inch of ice enough to close schools. Serious problems were caused in Northwest KY. Even though it was a pretty decent round of icing it wasn't that bad compared to the storm on Feb 11th-12th across West KY.

Some small end events this week

Dependning on how much moisture temps some light snow dusting maype an dusting to an inch may be poss. in localized spots of southern Pennryle and Purchase areas. Tonight as a low pressure system with a warm front moves though near the area.

Also despite low instablity enough dynamics may set up for maype at least an isoalted strong wind event maype a lower end severe wx threat from Fulton to Cadiz KY south. Something to watch over the days.

Severe Weather Awareness Week

Kentucky- March 2nd-8th

Other states I know of
TN- Feb 24th-29th
TX- Feb 24th- Mar 1st

During this time it is a time to review severe storms, tornadoes, flash floods, noaa weather radio and skywarn spotters.

On blogspot I will post some information on past outbreaks. NWS will let everyone know about the rules and saftey tactics of severe weather.

I will even post stuff about tornado safety in school and at work. Stuff about what the watches and warnings for Tornado, T-storm, and Flash Flood watches and warnings.

ANd NWS is gonan to post a lot of this and prepare for severe wx awareness weeks campaigns.

After the storm effects

1/10 to 1/3 to in some areas near 1/2 inch of ice fell in West KY. The heaviest icing occured from a Mayfield to Dawson Springs to Central CIty KY line North. A lot of reports of yesterday a lot of cars off the road in West KY Parkway. The timing led to a high number of accidents across the board. This briefly closed parts of the Pennryle Parkway, West KY Parkway, and SOme lanes of I-24.

Weather Update For West KY

The second round is under way in West KY some areas sohuld add to there 1/10-1/4 ice total the far southern counties should mix in with some rain. Some locally heavy freezing rain and even thunder frz rain will be a possbilty. Most precip should sweep out by 9pm even tohugh frezzing drizzle may remain though midnight into the wee hours of the morning.

winter wx update

Now some precip is starting to decrease in the first round. Then more scattered precip of sleet and frz rain can pop up across West KY and NW Mid TN. Now the freezing line is around Nashville.

An area of moderate to heavy freezing rain is falling from around Benton to Dawson Springs and the PEnnyryle forest to Muhlenburg and Mclean counties. Also light to moderate sleet changing to frz rain is falling across most of all of West KY. More activity is starting to fire up in Far West KY so dont travel if you have dont have to across West KY even some precip is starting to form in NW MId TN that could produce light sleet or frezzing rain for a brief period of time.More activity depending on the Temp will move in from Missouri depending on temp it will wither be sleet, freezing rain, or rain but for southern areas of West KY it sohuld be frz rain then change to plain cold rain but in NW KY it may stay ice and cause sig. problems.

Ice Ice In West KY Ice

Ice Storm Warnings are in effect for most of Western KY. Incluiding cities of Paduach, Madisonville, Henderson, Owensburo in effect till Midnight and these areas could see around 1/4 inch of ice. Areas like Fulton, Mayfield, Murray, Hopkinsville, and Greenville and Central City are under frz rain advisorys till 3pm and could see 1/10 inch of ice.

Could be Ice in the Attic?

In West KY some minor to decent icing of possibily in some areas 1/10 to 1/4 inch of ice is possible. The best chance of Ice is from Bardwell to Providence to Livermore KY line north. So travel problems and maype even a few school closings will be possible across West KY tomm morning and even tomm night and into Fri Morning.

Update Winter Threat there but decreasing

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for far west and northwest KY until Noon Friday Afternoon. Ice acculamtion of up to .2 of an inch and some minor snow and sleet acculamtion are all possibile so stay tuned to the NWS, HPC, Local TV stations for all the updates. A final call map will be issued by me a little later. Some minor ice spots may develop in the Hopkinsville area but isn't expected to be sig by any means.

Beware the models cant handdle this system well so little changes could be major to the forcast in either making it more sig or killing the threat all together.

Update using Call Map

The update is of course this is not using the 00Z Nam. Anyway want is suppsoed to happen is by morning rush hour the precip and slighty warmer temps are supposed to snake thier way though. All of West KY will be snow or snow/sleet to start out as precip. Then as the day progesses and warm air advection becomes more intense the precip changes from snow/sleet to sleet fz rain probably around mid to late morning. Then in southern KY south of a Bardwell to Princeton to Livermore KY line starting around noon or 1pm the recip will change to rain then it may change back to frz rain and sleet at nighttime. North of that line it should be fz rain or sleet or even snow longer and around Henderson freezing temps may not occur to as late as possbilty fri morning.

North of Bardwell to Princeton to Livermore- More sig winter acculamtion with 1-4 in of snow and sleet and 1/4 inch of ice with maype an isoalted area just under an half inch.

Soth of that line- Still chance of sizeable acculamtion should pretty intense frz rain and sleet storm but sohuld change to rain later. With some areas getting around 1/4 inch of ice acculamtion.

The first Call Map of 2/21

This is the Call Map from 2/21 in which some decent and poss sig. ice acculamtion could occur also some snow nad sleet accumation may occur early in NW KY. Even though not as bad as the storm of 2/11 still this storm can cause very major travel hazards.

Another Storm this Winter

Cheers and more cheers for a Winter Storm Watch we know how rare those can become in West KY. Mid South could have fun with sig snow, sleet, and ice acculmations more Snow/Sleet (2-4 inches) and ice with 1/4 inch +. Thisi s a pretty serious winter situation so take this very seriously.

WInter Storm Watch

A Winter Storm Watch in effect for all of West KY. This storm has some slimarites to the witner storm that impacted West KY last week but a little farther south and maype not quite as bad with the ice acculmations.Like last weeks storm we will be riding the winter weather carousel as far as precip. With deep arctic air, warm air advection, plenty of gulf moisture in store.Northwest KY- Snow to Snow/Sleet to Frz Rain to poss Rain and it could change back to more sleet with a little snow ( Some decent ice and snow events possiblie in Henderson, OWensburo, Paduach area)Southwest and Southern KY- Looks like may start out as Snow but possibity esp in the Hopkinsville area a sleet maype with a little snow event then changing to frz rain then changing to rain then by nightfall changing back to frz rain and sleet.Stay tuned to local tv stations, NWS, and other agenacys on this storm

This is how we do in Dixie

If you have fox channel 17 out of nashville this would be Trigg, Christian, and Todd counties and Mid Tn and interesting report of Dixie Alley or the new tornado will air at 9pm. If not you may can go to thier website for more updates or go to TN weather zone link to the left of the page. I will also discuss some things about Dixie Alley in future blogs.

Effects of Super Tuesday 2/5 2/6 2008

1) It will give natinoal and well deserved attenion to a place southwest ky and mid tn are in called Dixie Alley
2) Kentucky and a lot of people will try and push for legisaltion that will make usre more people have noaa weather radios
3) More chasers from the plains will travel from traditional tornado alley to dixie alley despite poorer chase terrain esp durign the off season
4) Tornadoes will get more national attention because feb 5th was a day natinoal news focused mroe on politics and less on the high risk day

Ice on Glass Ave

There are a slew of school closings in West KY and Mid TN. Several schools are closed in West KY not cause of last night but the night before when that siginifcant winter storm charged though.

.1-.2 inch of ice feel in some areas last light along with a dusting of snow

The glass is starting to ice up again

Bands of freezing rain and sleet is forming. Minor ice accualtmion is already occurign from Waverly TN to Greeenville KY including here in Hopkinsville. OSme areas may pick up .1 to .15 inch of ice acculamtion along with some sleet and minor dusting to 1 inch of snow tonight.

Ice dancing on the glass

SIg Ice and snow and sleet acculamtion as occured in Northwest KY and across most of West KY. From Mayfield to Dawson Springs KY north ice acculamtions of 1/10-1/4 inch occured with a poetinal for an extra 1/10-1/4 possiblie. North of Paduach to Livermore 2 to 5 inches of snow and sleet has occured along with 1/4-1/2 inch of ice acculatmation with near impossbile travel condidtions. WInter Storm Warning in effect ofr mosto f west ky till noon.

WInter Weather 2/11 Update

Already thunder snow has been reported in the Henderson and Owensburo KY area. In matter of fact close ot an inch may have already fallen in some places of snow Temps range from 21-32 range across West KY and snow sometiem heavy is falling in the Evansville Tri State area thisi s an dangerous WInter Storm with potenial for snow, sleet, and damaging ice acculatmions involved. WItner Storm Warning is in effect for Northwest KEntucky

Ice on the Glass House

Using this map from Geology Com maps out the winter potenail that amy be possibile used by the NWS forcast and some of the models that show winter precip. Still models are kinda wacky so this may completly bust but if it don't then it is gonan be a nasty winter day in Northwest KY esp from Paduach to Livermore KY north where sig. Icing may occur.

Winter Storm Warning URGENT NW West KY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
459 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008
ILZ075>078-081>083-085>087-089>091-093-094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ004-005-007-010-014-015-018>020-112100-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0002.080211T1800Z-080212T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KPAH.WS.W.0002.080211T1800Z-080212T1200Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-
WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-PULASKI-MASSAC-
GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-
LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
SMITHLAND...MARION...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...HENDERSON...
OWENSBORO...CALHOUN
459 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM WILL SPREAD A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START
OUT AS MAINLY SNOW NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
OVER FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PRIMARILY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM VIENNA ILLINOIS TO
OWENSBORO KENTUCKY...WITH MAINLY SNOW NEAR INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND A MIX NEAR MCLEANSBORO
ILLINOIS AND EVANSVILLE INDIANA. THE MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA...AND
COULD EVEN CHANGE OVER TO PLAIN RAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WARNING AREA.
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...WHERE
NEARLY ONE HALF INCH OF GLAZE MAY FORM. IN ADDITION...
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET MAY NEAR ONE INCH. FURTHER NORTH NEAR
INTERSTATE 64...SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES. MUCH
DEPENDS ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HOW THEY REBOUND TONIGHT...
WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. TRAVEL WILL BE VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
$$

River Flooding Along the Ohio River

Ohio River at Cairo
Flood Stage-40FT
Forcasted Stage-44FT
- Forcasted crest is Feb 16th Minor Flooding

Ohio River at Grand Chain Dam
Flood Stage- 42FT
Forcasted Stage-44FT
-Forcasted crest is on Feb 16th Minor Flooding

Ohio River at Shawneetown
Flood Stage-33FT
Forcasted Stage-43.7FT
- Forcasted crest is on Feb 15th possible Moderate Flooding with roads in IL,KY border area possibliy closed

Ohio River at JT Myers and Dam
Flood Stage- 37FT(already 38.7 Feet)
-Forcasted stage- 43.7 FT
- Crest will occur sometime overnight Feb 14th to Morning of Feb 15th Minor flooding with some roads close to the site may need to watch out

Ohio River at Mount Vernon
Flood Stage- 35FT(already 37.5 Feet)
Forcasted Stage- 40.2
- Crest will occur on the Thursday Feb 14th with some roads and farmland going under water in the IL,IN,KY border Minor Flooding

Also don't forget some minor flooding occuring now and continuing for a few days along the Green River in Paradise, Calhoun, Rochester

More things and surveys about 2/5/08

Trigg County- Two Ef-1s with some tree and some damge to a roof of a house. Two tornadoes touched down. One near Lake Barkley Shores and one north of Cadiz

Christian County- EF-2 Damage from Dawson SPrings Road over to Crofton with 2 injuries severe damage around and north of Crofton.

Calloway County- Ef-1 Damage east of Murray in eastern Calloway County with 94MPH winds.

NWS Padauch has the surveys, radar pics, and tracks of the tornadoes on thier website which is on my favorites. Also check out other links for more damage reports about Tuesday on my favorites.

Tornadoes Number 2/5
West KY-5
Kentucky as a whole-25
NWS Paduach CWA as a whole-6
Mid TN-5
Tennessee as a whole-11
West KY/Mid TN as a whole-10

NWS Nashville has a great link here. There may an additional few EF ratings because of all the damage in Mid TN
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bna/surveys/images/020508/poststorm_020508.php

Winter Storm Watch for Northwest KY

A low pressure is expected to move though with an arctic air mass still lodged in. As warm air comes though the precip may cold enough to suppurt freezing rain instead of rain for Northwest KY it may eventually change into rain at the end of the event. Sig. Ice preciption isn't an unrational though from Wickliffe to Livermore KY north.

The Winter Storm Storm is from Monday Afternoon though the overnight hours. For Ballard, Mccracken, Livingston, Crittenden, Union. Henderson, Webster, Mclean, Daviess counties.

Links about the sad damage across West KY

At least 5 Tornadoes struck West Kentucky in the first High Risk event of 2008 and the first time west ky was placed under a high risk during the winter months. The tornadoes killed 3 and injured several and caused millions dollars of damage. Muhlenburg County was declared a state of emergancy. Everybody still pray for the familes that were effected and wish that this event will make communites stronger.

Paduach Surveys(includes survey maps)
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=Feb508tornadoes


http://www.abc25.com/dsp_story.cfm?storyid=5095&RequestTimeout=500
^^News 25 story of devastion in Greenville/Powderly, and Central City Kentucky

http://www.kentuckynewera.com/articles/2008/02/07/news/free/doc47ab57324f81f365135371.txt
^^Kentucky new Era arcticle^^

If you can also help then please do so.

Also tragic tornadoes struck Layafete TN and another areas across West and Middle Tennessee and Arkansas, and mississipii and Alabama.

Supercell Track across West KY

Features the track of the Crofton, Deadly Greenville KY Tonado and an ef-1 survey in Calloway county east of murray KY

More surveys wil come today by NWs Paduach

Tornado Survey for Muhlenburg County EF3

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY800 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008...PRELIMINARY STORM DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR A PORTION OFMUHLENBERG COUNTY KENTUCKY FOR THE TUESDAY, FEB 5TH EVENT...THE FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR A TORNADO WHICHBEGAN NEAR THE COMMUNITY OF GREENVILLE KENTUCKY. PLEASE NOTE THATTHIS IS JUST A PRELIMINARY EVALUATION OF THE EVENT. THE STORMDAMAGE TEAM WILL CONTINUE TO THEIR SURVEY OVER THE NEXT ONE OR TWODAYS.* EVENT DATE: TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 5, 2008* EVENT TIME: 744 PM CST* EVENT TYPE: TORNADO* EVENT LOCATION: BEGAN APPROXIMATELY 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OFGREENVILLE KENTUCKY AND ENDING APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE EAST OF CENTRALCITY.* PEAK WIND: 160 MPH* RATING: EF-3* DAMAGE DIMENSIONS: THE TORNADO HAD AN APPROXIMATE PATH LENGTH OF12 MILES AND A WIDTH AVERAGING 325 YARDS.* INJURIES: TOTAL UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.* FATALITIES: 3* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE: IN THE COMMUNITIES OF GREENVILLE AND POWDERLYTHERE WERE 113 HOMES AFFECTED. 48 HOMES WERE DESTROYED AND 32HAVING MAJOR DAMAGE (35 TO 40 PERCENT WERE MOBILE HOMES). DAMAGE ISSTILL BEING ASSESSED IN THE COMMUNITY OF CENTRAL CITY BUT INITIALSURVEY IS INDICATING DOZENS OF HOMES AFFECTED BY THE TORNADO.

After Effect Sad Morning

There was in West KY a tornado reported in Crofton and Greeneville.

3 People lost there lives in a moblie homei n Greenville KY this is a very tragic seen and mfy family goeso ut to all who are effected.

A lot of devasting damage down in Crofton KY

Possible damage down in Hopkins and Calloway County and into Puryear TN

Already Cranking that Feb Outbreak

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Henderson and Northern Daviess county. Tohughout the mroning a few storms could be damaging wind and isoalted hail poruceres.

It should get much worse tornadoes and damging winds possiblily in the strongest storms in excess of 90mphi s possibile this afternoon tohugh tonight.

This is a bad looking severe weather outbreak so be careful and stay tuned.

West KY Mid TN outbreak on Super Tuesday

A severe threat I brought up in past few days in coming to life. I will briefly discuss the threats and slimarties for this event.
Thisi s our biggest threat since OCt 18th some of us biggest threat since April 7th 2006 the Number 1 weather event of 2006.
There could be 3 rounds of severe weather of severe weather tonight and tomm night across West KY and Mid TN.
First Round- (8pm-2am) West KY
This round will start at about 8PM as storms possibily supercells will move along a moist boundary layer from Arkasas to Kentucky and Far west TN. Isolated Tornadoes, Hail, and Damaging Winds appear all possiblie locally heavy rain will also be a problem. This event could set outflows for the next to events to bust out.
Second Round- Whole Area (2pm-7pm)
This round is mostly supercells that will form depending on insatblity with temps in the 70's this time of year that wont be too hard though. Tornado threat a storng tornado threat may occur at this time and the serial derecho may start to line up. Storm motions will be 60-75mph so these storm are fast rockets. If occurs in school listen to teachers and duck down and protect your head no matter if winds and torandoes cause with both ocntaining wind gusts in excess of 90mph it can cause severe damage.
Round 3 (9pm-3am) west KY esp MID TN
This is when the codl front plows though. Derecho event seems likely with damaging winds of 90mph plus with supercells in the line and out ahead. This oculd lead to widespread power outages and a dangeorus night event.
For TN there are taking part in Super Tuesday and important political day. Still get out and vote for TN people but be careful of this risk of storms. Several tornadoes upwards to ef2 or ef3 and damging winds of 90-125mph may be possible.

Tuesday Will Rock SPC does it

SPC AC 040653 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CST MON FEB 04 2008 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN LA...ERN AR...SERN MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN AND CENTRAL MS...AND NWRN AL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN /OH VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL LOW INVOF OK AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE SHIFTING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT...REACHING THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW THEN CONTINUES ENEWD UP THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE S CENTRAL CONUS SHOULD REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY 06/12Z. ...E TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS/TN/OH VALLEYS... WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT REMAINS APPARENT THIS PERIOD FROM THE S CENTRAL CONUS EWD/NEWD TO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND NEWD ACROSS AR INTO THE OH VALLEY...WITHIN BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD INTO AN EXPANDING WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD...COOLING ALOFT ABOVE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE WITH TIME FROM W TO E WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...80 TO 90 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION...ATOP A 60 TO 70-PLUS KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. WITH FLOW INCREASING RAPIDLY WITH HEIGHT AND VEERING FROM SLY AT THE SURFACE TO SWLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORM MODE WILL BE A MIX OF LINEAR WITH EMBEDDED COMPLEX STRUCTURES...AND SUPERCELLULAR. WHILE GENERALLY LIMITED INSTABILITY /MIXED-LAYER CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE WIDESPREAD. IN ADDITION...TORNADOES ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND THE FORECAST DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL THAT A FEW OF THESE COULD BE STRONG/SIGNIFICANT EVENTS. PROBABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REFLECTS THE FACT THAT THE NRN EXTENT OF THE THREAT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...AS STRONG SHEAR BUT VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET...AS ANY EXISTING INSTABILITY DIURNALLY DIMINISHES. MEANWHILE...CONVECTION/SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD FURTHER S...PARTICULARLY INTO ERN TN/AL/NWRN GA/THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 02/04/2008

Isolated Tornado in West YK today

Enough shear and isntablity will led to isoalted tornado or wind or hail threat across Paduach and Wickliffe KY areas today.

Monday Update

Not as nasty forcasted for Mdonay(today) as I orginally thought. Still an isoalted storms that oculd produce big hail and a tornado across northwest ky. Inculding Henderson, Paduach, Fulton KY areas

Call map for tuesday too far out

For now I think it is A MDT risk for damging winds and tornadoes. If there is a possibity of a high risk tohugh the idea isnt far fetched if it was to happen I would have t say that this outbreak would have West Tn and West Mid TN writtenn all over it with wicked sotmrs right here in west ky

Monday Rocking the School

A severe weather outbreka may start on Monday in West KY. From Paris Tn to HOpkinsivlle Ky to Owensburo KY west there lies a Slight Risk. With a warm front lifitng up tohugh the west ky area storms some severe will be possible. SOme of these storms if they interact with the boundary layer can produce an isolated storng tornado or baseball sized hail a good sized pre cursor to Tuesday most of the threat shoudl be very isolated but very intenxse in areas that get involved the best chance of big hail and tornadoes is in far west KY including Fulton, Mayfield, Paduach KY areas.

Super Bowl Sunday

Today as the PATS and GIANTS clash for the superbowl a pretty mild day is in the forcast. Rain and maype a rumble of thunder is possible tohughout the afternoon so everyone enjoy your superbowl parties and remeber may the best team win in the superbowl.

Rock and Roll High School Days

Ok a very concerned forcast is in store for Tuesday and even Monday Night. Right now we wil start to warm up today Super Bowl day courtesy of a warm front lifitng tohugh maype some thunder here and there.

Rock and roll severe weather, heavy rain, storng winds are in store starting Monday. As a approaching cold front Monday moves into the Ozarks a series of low pressures will move up the cold front.

One system will cause severe weather Monday Afternoon and Evening. Isolated tornadoes, hail, and wind is pososible. Esp from Mayfield KY west. This is as a low moves along the cold front and moist air spawns pre frontal storms

As the cold front comes closer on Tuesday another powerful Low moves from Oklahoma to Missouri to Southeast Iowa. Awesome shear will rock KY and TN area causing storms to form and some may have no problem rotating esp if there discrete so supercells will be possible out ahead of the line or in the line. Cape values of 500-1000J/kg will be possible and more than enough for trouble. A serieal Derecho a bowed out squall line with Major Damage from Damaging Winds and Tornadoes is possible.

More update on this Severe WX, heavy rain, High Wind Event

New Updates to the Blog

New things added to the blogspot are to your left swift warnings and two Temp and Clickable Weather Underground stickers from 2 West KY Locations. The Henderson one is a little tight in the small space but it is clickable and shows good weather undergorund links. Leave a comment for any improvements

Fat Tuesday (Feb 5th) Severe weather/River Flooding

I usually dont do this tthis far ahead but with all the models aregging on a very dangeorus weather event and the fact it is Fat Tuesday, Election Primarys, and Homecoming Week this is improtant to mention the threat here and now to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.A nasty Fat Tuesday event of homecoming week. There appears to be that increbile shear we had last tuesday compared by impressive shear made even more impressvie by our close promixety to the low widepsread damaging winds and even an tornado which oculd be strong, large hail, heavy rain, strong non-thudnerstorm winds. Even a chance of a light snow behind all of it is all possible. Schools will be a poss.issue in West KY and West TN and surrounding areas the greatest threat will occur at dismissal time so schools may extend school hours becuase of that. The threat will move into mid TN south Cetnral In and Central KY toeards late afternoon and evening. The focus on elections primarys and homecoming week and Fat Tuesday may distract several people the chances of severe weather

Jan 2008 Review One heck of a Month

So where to start Jan 2008 will go down across West KY as having near to normal to slighty above normal tempartures. Normal and Jan 2008 dont go hand and hand though. A cold snap assualted the area at the first of the month, then followed by record high temps in the low 70's on Jan 7th. This led to a round of some strong to severe weather with funnel clouds, wall clouds, tornado warnings, and wind gusts of 50-60mph scattered across West KY limited damage occured. Then down south severe weather broke out in TN on the 10th followed by some flooding around Chrisitan and Todd Counties and a few storms moving in excess of 80mph.

Colder air plunged tohugh the area by next week and a light suprise snow event due to evap. cooling and wetbublbing occured across West KY on the 16th of Jan on the 5th year annviersery of a snowstorm that hit the area in 2003. AMounts of 1-3 inches were reported in Union, Henderson, Daviess, Webster counties with less than an inch in most all of west KY. Then colder air continued we busted on a Winter Weather Advisory sitaution on Jan 22nd. Then we got briefly warmer in LAte Jan where the biggest weather event occured a major wind storm struck on the 29th. This brought widespread damage from non and thunderstorm winds alike including a 90MPH non thunderstorm windevent in Hickman KY. A derecho formed causing a lot of damage and1 injury to the 22 counties of west KY.

Then a light snowfall fell to end the month. 1 to 1.5 icnhes fell around Hopkinsville and Elkton areas with around 1 inch amounts farther west on the morning of Jan 31st. Then 1-2 inches fall in Paduach and Crittenden County area to end the month and to start Feb.