Christmas

Supposed to be the upper 40's and sunny no White Christmas this year.

Flood Warnings

Some lowland flooding is being reoprted in West KY.

Heres the latest Flood Warning from West KY from NWS Paduach

FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY835 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007INC129-163-KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-149-157-177-219-221-225-233-152230-VANDERBURGH IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY-DAVIESS KY-UNION KY-MCLEAN KY-WEBSTER KY-HOPKINS KY-CRITTENDEN KY-LIVINGSTON KY-MUHLENBERG KY-CALDWELL KY-BALLARD KY-MCCRACKEN KY-LYON KY-CHRISTIAN KY-TODD KY-MARSHALL KY-TRIGG KY-CARLISLE KY-GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-CALLOWAY KY-FULTON KY-835 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2007THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN... DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTHERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA SOUTHERN VANDERBURGH COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY* UNTIL 430 PM CST SATURDAY.* AT 835 AM CST DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE WIDESPREADMODERATE RAIN OVER ALL OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. RADAR ESTIMATED ONE TOTHREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST TEN HOURSOR SO.MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY HAVE ALREADY REPORTED ROADSBEING COVERED WITH WATER...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. INADDITION...REPORTS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS FLOWING OUT OF THEIRBANKS...AS WELL AS DITCHES BEING BANKFULL AND OVERFLOWING HAVE BEENRECEIVED.ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ANDINTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS ADDITIONALRAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE GROUND CONDITIONS.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATEROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRYVEHICLES AWAY.TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAYYOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.LAT...LON 3748 8711 3734 8712 3722 8690 3665 8707 3668 8807 3649 8805 3650 8940 3677 8912 3705 8918 3723 8898 3708 8848 3740 8844 3750 8806 3770 8811 3790 8794 3782 8761 3796 8760 3778 8708 3791 8698 3780 8683TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 180DEG 0KT 3702 8848$$

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pah

The Big Show 12/15-12/16

So now this situation becomes very interesting across The bluegrass state and many other surrounding areas. Right now the first possible measurable snow is possible across all of West KY and even into Tennessee. Tonight some sleet and maype a light snow shower could mix with the rain right now temps are slightly above freezing. This is an amateur forecast stick to NWS or other news sources for more details. Feel free to comment on this forecast based on models, climatology, and even the NWS thinking techniques and how they interpret the models.

WINTER POTENTIAL BY COLOR ZONE

ORANGE ZONE (includes Ballard, Mccracken, Livingston, Crittenden)

I think here since it is the northwest part of West KY and is closer to the colder air and farther away for the low pressure system then they may change from all rain tonight and tomorrow to snow which could accumulate 1 to 3 inches think depending on the timing of the cold air and the moisture and of course the track of the low.

YELLOW ZONE (includes Carlisie, Hickman, Fulton, and Graves)

Usually this is the area that can miss out on some good winter weather events esp in potential nor Easter situations. With a track to the south and east snow could accumulate 1 to 2 inches thick.

BROWN/GREEN ZONE(includes Calloway, Marshall, Lyon, Caldwell and Hopkins)

Storm track is huge here and there could be a sizable difference in snow depending on how the low moves though. A more southerly track and quicker the cold air gets though the better snow chances. Two to Five on a good day for snow lovers and everything goes right. Barely under an inch if it goes slightly north, but 1 to 2 seems to be a reasonable solution.

GRAY ZONE (includes Trigg, Christian, Todd, and Muhlenburg)

Ok a the storm track and current thinking support some snow Sat Nite into Sun Morning. Flooding is going to be a concern here esp in the Green River in Paradise with Moderate to Major flooding affecting farm lands. Snow should mix in and fall after 11pm and last till around 6 to 9AM Sunday. Temps should be below freezing but many uncertainties lay in this area. Remember anything can happen and if the moisture on the backside is underestimated more snow is possible but 1 inch of snow can seem reasonable. Two to Four would be kinda pushing it though. May be good enough to go under a Winter Weather or Snow Advisory tomorrow but that is to be foresee.

FOREST GREEN ZONE (includes Union, Henderson, Webster, Daviess, and Mclean)

River flooding is going to be a big deal esp along the Green river Valley. A little later may want to worry about minor flooding of the Ohio. As far as snow with the little southward progression this area is sitting pretty with snow chances as long as moisture is there as the cold air sets in. It should change from a sleet/snow/rain mix tonight early morning to heavy rain then back to snow possibly by nightfall. Snow totals appear to be 2 to 4 inches of white stuff on the ground.

Also Remember that a flood watch is in effect. Now lets look at the river forecasts.

The Green River at Paradise is in Moderate Flood State. Could go into Major Flood stage next week depending on how much rain has fallen. Luckily not a lot of settlement is around the area but farmlands will be flooded. If the forecasted Crest could come to reality it could be the 3rd or 4th highest crest on record.

The Green River at Calhoun

The Green River at Calhoun Lock and Dam is in minor flood stage. It could go into Moderate Flood stage which could cause some lowlands around Island, Ramsey, and Jewel City to flood. This may include some roads if you see water over the road DO NOT CROSS IT.

The Ohio River from Shawneetown to Owensburo

So far no flooding is recorded but minor to maype a cross to moderate flooding in Shawneetown is expected with this heavy rain. Some of the heavy rain may send a flood crest down the river that can produce minor flooding that could effect northern parts of those counties in west Kentucky.

A Flood Watch still remains in effect for parts of West KY the counties include Calloway, Marshall, Lyon, Caldwell, Hopkins, Christian, Muhlenburg, Trigg, Todd, Mclean, and Daviess. Including the larger towns of Hopkinsville, Owensburo, Madisonville, and Murray. 2 to 3 to possibly 4 inches some falling at an inch an hour could cause and aggravate river, stream, and street flooding. This is from 6am Sat Morning though the afternoon.

Another update may be necessary tomorrow morning have a good weekend beware of this intense news making system.

one more thing if the models underestimate the moisture in the backlash we could be in trouble.

A weather event this weekend for the area

Two days later since my last post on the weekend system are things still aren't clearer. But a wedge in Mid TN could led to the Cumberland Pleteau of TN getting a little more snow than most in west ky will. Tonight looks to moslty rain with maype a chance of sleet and frezzing rain mixing in occasionaly. Mostly north of US 62 though. The big concern is for the PEnnryle area and the Green River area for flooding. Becuase of this a flood watch has been issued, for the following by NWS Paduach. Stay tuned to NWS, News, and my next blog update is later this afternoon.


FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY357 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007KYZ008-009-011>013-016-017-019>022-141800-/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.A.0003.071215T1200Z-071216T0000Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON357 AM CST FRI DEC 14 2007...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CALDWELL...CALLOWAY...CHRISTIAN...DAVIESS... HOPKINS...LYON...MARSHALL...MCLEAN...MUHLENBERG...TODD AND TRIGG.* FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON* A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING PERIODIC RAINS THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY OVER MUCH OF THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER GROUNDS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES IN RECENT DAYS. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF ALL THIS RAINFALL WILL BE TO LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED RISK OF RIVER...STREAM...CREEK...AND TRIBUTARY FLOODING. IN ADDITION FARMS AND LOW LANDS...AS WELL AS STREETS AND ROADWAYS...WILL BE AT A HEIGHTENED RISK OF FLOODING.A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.$$

Winter Update

The storm in the weekend is really starting to get into the news. There a lot of uncertainties in this system including.

1) exact degree of cold air Fri Night though Sat
2) the affects of Olga on the system if Olga affects it
3) how the impact of having three jet streams nearby will play an issue.
4) degree of moisture esp in the Henderson KY area ( around Hopkinsville shouldn't be a problem)
5) degree of moisture on the backside of the system

It looks like all of west KY will be looking at snow. The timing of when the change over from rain to snow occurs or if it starts off as rain or snow is still not there. Also a slight northern track of an associated low pressure system which should move to around Memphis TN would mess up some chances for snow lovers. While a slight move south would increase confidence in snow lovers hearts in West KY. As it stands around 1-4 inches of snow may be reasonable one good thing is the models are starting to somewhat agree for now at least but any of the following things listed above and more can influence that heavily

Stay Tuned to News and NWS Website or any other weather source for more details on this potential Winter storm.

Really need watching

It is Wednesday and if you are following the weather a potential powerful low pressure system is expected to effect weather in West KY somehow then become a possible nor Easter type system. As far as winter weather chances the chances decrease as the low takes a more north westerly movement. Also timing is a big key because some models want to move it quicker than others. Also you have to watch to see how far the SE ridge will be suppressed, and the support and degree of the cold air the deeper the arctic high up around Michigan is the better. Even if Olga could have some influence on this system. If I had to make some forecast note this is an amateur / best guess forecast I would say this.

Henderson- Fri Night rain to snow showers changing eventually to snow Saturday before ending at nightfall. With a chance of accumulation and high temps a few degrees above freezing or right around freezing depending on degree of cold air

Hopkinsville/Murray/Madisonville- Fri Night rain, rain though first part of the day Sat changing to snow with less of a chance of accumulation probably a Dusting to an Inch if that. Any track that goes significantly northwest the snow chance is pretty much canceled unless you hope for a surprise on the backside.

Rainy Monday

It looks like a rainy Monday. One to Three Inches of rain have fallen across West KY, and isolated amounts of 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected throughout the morning and throughout the day. Also temps in many areas will be in the upper 40's and low 50's so a rain jacket and probably a hoodie or warm clothes are a great idea for today. Beware the warmer weather tomorrow may make you shed those warm clothes right off.

Suprise That Winter Weather Advisory is out.

It is good to see winter colors on the Paduach NWS map. It makes me feel good time for the hot coco and the warm cozy nights for tonight at least. For some areas of west ky a light acculamtion of primarly a sleet/frezzing rain/ rain mix will occur. Mostly north of US 62 precipation values aren't expected to be much. Enough for minor ice acculamtions on bridges and overpasses and espcially on rural roads. Even some acculmations in Indiana. Heres the text and also a link to check your Kentukcy travel conditions in the morning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY153 PM CST THU DEC 6 2007ILZ075>078-081>083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ003>005-007-008-010-011-013>016-018>020-MOZ111-112-070400-/O.CON.KPAH.WW.Y.0004.071207T0000Z-071207T1200Z/JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CRITTENDEN-LYON-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MARION...EDDYVILLE...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON153 PM CST THU DEC 6 2007...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THISEVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THISEVENING TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY.A LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT IS SET TO TAKE SHAPE AND MOVEACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT. IT WILL LEAVE A LIGHT COAT OFMAINLY ICE ON ROAD SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS SOUTH OF THEINTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE MAYACCUMULATE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64CORRIDOR. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A MINOR TRAVEL NUISANCE LATER TONIGHTINTO FRIDAY MORNING.LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURIAND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOISAND WESTERN KENTUCKY BY AROUND 900 PM... WITH TEMPERATURESHOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. IT WILL CONTINUE ITSEASTERN SPREAD ACROSS THE WABASH AND INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANAOVERNIGHT...BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND END AFTER 300AM.STORM TOTAL SNOW AND OR ICY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY ON ROADSURFACES...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL SLOWER AND MORE HAZARDOUS THANUSUAL. REMEMBER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BE ESPECIALLY SLICK.ALSO KEEP IN MIND THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SUCH LIGHT WINTRYACCUMULATION THIS YEAR...SO DON`T FORGET TO PLAN AND ALLOW EXTRATIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELLING LATER TONIGHT ORFRIDAY MORNING.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZINGRAIN WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.$$

http://511.ky.gov/
^^ traffic info for thr bluegrass state^^
http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=LSR&node=KPAH
^^ updates for the Paduach CWA

It is really December?

A slight risk of severe weather isolated tornadoes and damaging winds no December like. But with good shear and approaching cold front severe weather may be a concern in any storm that gets going. Best time from 3pm-9pm for strong storms. Hail isn't going to be a threat but damging winds and a isolated tornado may be a threat

SPC Site probablites for West KY
Tornado- 5%
Hail- No Threat
Wind-15%


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Could we get 12-17 inches of snow this winter?

It appears that voters voted for 12-17 inches of snowfall. With one vote for 2-6 inches. Both of those things can happen. December looks to be a rather interesting month. I don't have a lot of faith in the very warm to record warm all the way though January though February. We will have to wait and see this week looks calm with some gusty winds and an isolated strong storm tomorrow. Followed by below to average temps for the most part and mostly dry for next week. The period from Dec 8Th- 24Th may be of interest