Lake Day Outlook

Starting on Friday for Memorial Day Weekend and running until Labor Day Weekend will be the lake day forecast. Which will be the forecast for the Land Between the Lakes(Marshall, Calloway, Trigg, Lyon, Livingston KY, and Henry/Stewart/Houston/Benton counties in TN.) and Lake Malone(Todd, Muhlenberg,Logan counties in KY) areas. This will determine whether it is a good lake day, a bad lake day, or just an okay lake day. A rating of 1 is the worst possible lake day you can get while a 5 is the best possible lake day you can get.. Also the lake day forecast will be given if possible the night before, and revised if needed. All weekends (Friday,Saturday, Sunday, and even Monday on holiday weekends) from Memorial Day until Labor Day will have a Lake Day forecast number. The 4th of July will also have a lake day forecast as well. Doesn't include normal weekdays, as the best lake tourism is the the weekend if requested I could give a quick weekday overview. 5 is the best, 1 is stay at the lodge or stay home day. More on that at the bottom of this way to long note. First lake day outlook will be for Friday, and I will try to do that Tonight.

Summertime weather is hard to follow. A lot of summertime days will feature isolated to scattered storms that will pulse up and then die down.

This will be tracked on facebook, and on blogspot http://www.blogger.com/home?pli=1. Either way my profile or that blogspot will have it also if you follow Western KY Weather on facebook it will contain the lake day forecast.

What Makes a Great Lake Day(factors) 5 out of 5

- Sunny and clear days: Many late spring and summer days have at least a 20% of summer time heat of time isolated showers/storm. Unless there is a organized low or some type of boundary it isn't an all day event. Of course on days where washouts are expected these are your 1 or 2 out of 5 lake days.

- Lack of severe thunderstorms: This goes along with the first one. Since KY severe wx season is Apr-Jun and late May and June are prime lake months this can be an important one. SPC outlooks assign risks Slight, Moderate, and High for potential for severe weather. Any time a Moderate or High Risk is assigned expect a lake day rating no higher than 3 on the lake day rating for a Moderate, and 2 for a High. As damaging winds especially can become big time Lake hazards. Also Tornadoes and Hail can mess up a great lake day.

- Lack of High and Gusty Wind (non thunderstorm): High Wind days can be bad news for the lake days. These days can disrupt fishing, cause boating and swimming hazards, knock down weak limbs and in extreme cases entire trees, and if the ground is really dry can cause wild and brush fires. NWS for lake season issues Lake Wind Advisories for 35MPH gust or higher or when 25mph is sustained. Some high wind events a Wind Advisory or even High Wind Watch or Warning may be issued. This can really lower the lake rating even if the day is expected to be clear.

- Warm day but not extreme heat days (days were high index values are expected to be over 105) Of course coming into the summer days will be hot. I am not talking about days that are in the low 90's with little humidity. Or typical hot summer days what could be hazardous even to a lake day is these days were the heat index (what the temperature feels like to you combining the temperature with humidity) is around or over 105 degrees, or those triple digit days where being out and overworking yourself is dangerous to your health. These dangerous temperatures can even make a lake day sticky and dangerous. When a Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat Warning is in effect expect no better than a 3 on the lake day rating scale. There were a few days in 2009 that were only a 3 out of 5 due to cool temps.

5- Very confident to near certain of a great lake day: Get out and enjoy (best rating)

4- Pretty confident of a great lake day: There may be some gusty winds, or isolated thunderstorms, but nothing that would ruin the whole day.

3- So-So: This is a day that could go either way. There may be a slight risk of severe wx, but it expected to ruin the day, or it could be a really nice day, but it is either to windy, or too hot. Or there could be scattered thunderstorms that could ruin at least part of the day. I would still go to the lake on a 3 out of 5 day, but would use caution

2- Not a good lake day: May want to re-plan, or if you decide to go to the lake watch out for weather hazards that more than likely could be present. This past 4th of July was this one. These days usually are washouts, or may not be washouts, but could have part of the day where a significant severe wx, or flooding event could occur. Or a 2 out of 5 may be clear, but could feature 50-60 MPH wind gusts, and or an extreme, record breaking heat wave could be the reason for the 2 out of 5 lake day, despite the fact that it is clear. If you go to the lake on this day, stay tuned to the weather. If it is a 2 out of 5 due to heat (although this will likely be a 3 out of 5 as long as everything else is good) limit your outdoor activity, and drink plenty of fluids. If the IKE wind day in Sept 2008 was a lake day it would make a case for a 2 out of 5 days mostly due to the wind gusts.

1- Very confident that this will be a bad lake day: Either a total washout is expected or a severe weather outbreak, extreme winds, or in many of 1 out of 5 lake days a combo of the things listed above. This will be a rare rating a 1 out of 5 lake day will be a day, that you won't even need me to tell it is bad, you will just know it (worst rating)

Updates

The NWS of Paducah is planning on surveying damage. Today they will be in SE Missouri and Southern Illinois. Tommorow they are planning to survey the Owensboro KY area to see if a tornado did touchdown from Owensboro KY and go across the river into Rockport IN. Also Saturday they will also likely go examine damage in Trigg County and possibly Webster County. Also they may examine the wind damage paths across Northwestern KY and the Paducah area to make sure no real enhanced wind damage or brief tornadoes occurred. Some trees and powerlines are still down so be aware of those. Areas like Cadiz/Linton and Daviess/Webster County where some damage occurred please respect the people of these communities and don't go down there and gawk at the damage. Thankfully no deaths occurred in Western KY or anywhere due to the storms that is great news.

Quick post storm thought

We got spared the worst of it. I am very blessed and thankful for the lord watching over us. Thankful for the squall line to form and not be discrete supercells. We do have some wind damage and possibly some tornado damage did occur across Western KY. Not to the extent that it would of occurred had supercells formed out ahead of the line.

That we are thankful of. Any survey results I will post on here and will do some review of the event.

Hopkinsville is clear.

No Tornado Warnings for West KY some rotation in Muhlenberg County, but still just a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. Eastern Christian, Montgomery, Todd, Muhlenberg some wind potential these storms.

West Side of Hopkinsville, Gracey, Crofton take cover.

Update of the storm.

Strong rotation spinup in Northern Stewart County. Linton, Roaring Spring are in the path of this storm. This storm if continues will likely go right over the heart of Hopkinsville.

Severe storms are moving

If you live in New Concord, Linton, Crofton, Cadiz, Gracey, Mannington, White Plains, Nortonville you need to take cover now some tornado warned storms in the area.

Update

Reports of a funnel cloud north of Cadiz. Cerulean, Cobb, Crofton, Mannington need to hit the deck and take cover now.

Take cover now

Cobb, Princeton, Dawson Springs, Mannington, Crofton, Morton's Gap, Earlington, White Plains KY you need to take cover now.

Owensboro KY Storm

Owensboro needs to take cover a funnel cloud and possible tornado is heading towards St. Joesph and Owensboro.

Tornado Warning for Lyon, Caldwell, far north Trigg County

Princeton and Cobb are in the path of this storm. Very large Hail, Damaging Winds, and maybe even a tornado is possible in this storm.

Henderson County Storm

Take cover in the Henderson KY area for a tornado warned storm and 70+ MPH winds.

Take cover

Hardin, Brewers, and far NW Calloway county need to take cover now for a Tornado Warned storm.

Big Time Wind Threat

Update: A QLCS event is moving across Western KY. Damaging winds of 70+MPH are being reported along with funnel clouds. I'm starting to think our strong to violent tornado threat is going down, but still a tornado threat and widespread damaging winds exist. These damaging winds could cause as much damage as a weak tornado.

Funnel Cloud reported

Funnel Cloud reported on 28th Street in Paducah.

Be careful

Paducah and Mayfield and Clinton storms are heading your way. Take cover

Weather update

Weather update for Hickman, Fulton, Carlisle, Ballard, and McCracken. Tornado Warnings are in effect for this area. Take cover now Paducah itself is not under a Tornado Warning as of now, but could be in within the next 30 mins. Damaging wind, hail, and tornado threat all exist. This will eventually move into Paducah in 30 mins.

Take Cover

Ballard, Carlisle, Hickman, Fulton, and NW McCracken County Tornado Warning till 7:15pm this has produced a funnel cloud.

Strong Tornado Threat continues

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0968.html

Strong Tornado threat continues into Western KY.

Closetdiving

Dear folks of Ballard, Carlisle, Hickman, and Fulton Counties: Be prepared to go closetdiving and take cover from this line of severe and rotating storms about to cross the MS. Rivers warnings are expected shortly.

Tornado Warning update

Tornado Warnings now approach the MS River. Tornado Warnings will be likely for Ballard, Carlisle, Hickman, and Fulton Counties within the next hour. These storms have a history of producing tornadoes, large hail, and winds in excess of 75MPH

Ballard, Carlisle, Hickman, Fulton Counties

Weather Update: Ballard, Carlisle, Hickman, and Fulton counties. Supercells, Bow Echos, and a wide array of storms are located in SE Missouri. These storms have a history of producing tornadoes, damaging winds upwards to 75MPH, and large hail up to size of golfball's. Be prepared in the next hour or so to be in the path of these storms.

Although development along the main line of supercells never occurred. We still have the main line of supercells in SE MO into Eastern Arkansas. Moving Northeastward. Due to the shear involved most of these will be tornado warned as they move into Western Kentucky and a few of those could produce tornadoes.

The chance for a strong to violent long tracked tornado is still there for Western KY and far Western Middle TN with this line of supercells. It also may turn quasi linear and produce damaging winds and isolated strong tornadoes into Western Middle even towards Metro down to Waynesboro TN during the overnight.

Update Time

From the Storm Prediction Center. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO MARKEDLY INCREASE ACROSS SE
MO...FAR SRN IL...WRN KY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. SUPERCELLS WITH
LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS
TORNADO WATCH 370.

Remember you can follow along on facebook for a little bit more information at Western Kentucky Weather.

Still a little cap.

Thankfully that shower dissipated Western KY proper still has a little cap, but convection is rapidly getting severe in MO and Arkansas and that will move this way towards the evening hours

Calloway and Trigg County update

Update for Calloway and Trigg Counties. A shower has formed northeast of Murray and another one east of the lakes. Right now it isn't a big deal, but you never know when a shower could turn into a supercell.

Weather update

A Cap helped limit storms till now. This is changing as the low pressure moves closer to our area. Cold air aloft will help shatter the Cap and supercell formation will take off after 3pm. Strong to Violent Tornadoes, Very large Hail, and Damaging Winds are the main threats.