Cold Flash

Got a 59 in Hopkinsville and 34 in Henderson how is that for a temp. difference. Front should clear very soon

Winter WX Time

A very dangerous and possibly devastating storm is expected in the next 8 to 36 hours. First of all West KY is under an advisory till 6pm for light icing up to an tenth of an inch behind the arctic cold front. This should hit us after noon the frz rain. After 5 or 6 a lull in the action occurs as the entire area falls below freezing and a storm with a lot of moisture moves in. AS warm air tries to ride over shallow cold air. This is a perfect setup for freezing rain and sleet. From tonight. Acclamations of 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice and 1 to 2 inches of sleet are expected. Snow may mix in towards far nw ky around Uniontown to Owensboro

Weather Update

This is a winter wx update about the winter storm.

- Right now it appears that the arctic cold front will move into the area into the morning hours. The front should clear all of west ky by 11:30am. Start the move into the area about 4 or 5 am. The high temp will be reached before 11am. Once the front passes you will know as the temp could drop 20 to 30 degrees in 2 to 4 hours. With a bunch of gulf moisture and shallow arctic air a winter wx event is defiantly likely with sig. ice accumulations. Another storm Monday Night/Tuesday night may add to the ice acculmation and may mix with some sleet and even snow.

Stay safe tommrow. There is possibity of tress down, very dangerous travel, and even power outages.

Schools will probably be closed or released early across all of west ky.

WINTER STORM WARNING URGENT

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

ILZ077-078-082-083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-
MOZ110>112-114-150415-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0006.
081215T1200Z-081216T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0006.
081215T1200Z-081216T1200Z/
EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-
JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...
GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...
FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...
ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...
ELKTON...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
250 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
FOR MOST OF FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY.


THERE WILL BE 2 ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION AND WINTER STORM THREATS.

THE 1ST SUCH ROUND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

RAIN WILL EXPAND ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA TONIGHT...AND THEN TOMORROW
MORNING...A COLD FRONT BLASTS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION...AND
TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW FREEZING.
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE WINDING DOWN TEMPORARILY ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL CREATE AT LEAST SOME ICING PROBLEMS.


THE NEXT ICING THREAT OCCURS WITH A RETURN CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL AGAIN DEVELOP AND
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION...AND BY THEN TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
20S...SO WIDESPREAD ICING IS EXPECTED.
AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A
LOW END OF ABOUT 1/4 INCH OF ICE...TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 3/4
INCHES OF ICE.
THIS WILL CAUSE MAJOR TRAFFIC PROBLEMS AND MAY DOWN
TREES AND POWER LINES.


$$

First call map.

A very dangerous winter storm and the first of the season for West Ky. There is the first of two call maps. The second one at about either tonight or early tomm. morning.

Green- is 0.25-0.33 of glaze with a inch or so of sleet. Snow might even mix in.
Blue is 0.10-0.25 of glaze with about 2 to 3 inches of snow/sleet.

This is a very dangerous winter storm from Tomorrow as early as midday into morning hours of Tuesday. Then after Tuesday Morning another winter storm could form. This call map is only for the Monday/early Tuesday storm.

The West KY Winter Show Starts

A lot to talk about but lets go in Chronological order.

Today/Tonight- There are a chance of showers and rain mostly tonight. The big story here will be as the day goes on so does the wind. With wind gusts upwards to 45MPH hold on your self. And might want to hold on to your Christmas decorations to. Esp. the inflatable ones.

Monday/Monday Night- This is the time the Winter Storm Watch is in effect in for. There is a potential for upwards to 1/4 inch of ice across West KY esp. the Northwest areas. This could cause some very hazardous travel conditions starting early Monday afternoon with the worst coming Monday Night. As precip. lags behind the arctic front as a shortwave moves across all precip after 4pm should be in the form of freezing rain maybe mixed with sleet. This will cause serious travel issues and bring weak trees and elevated objects down. Confidence Level of 3

Tues/Tuesday- Another shortwave moves though the area. With temps held below freezing excpt from Murray to Hopkinsville to Greenville KY area south. Most of this will fall along the shallow cold air as frezzing rain. Changing to rain in SE parts of our area. Another sig. ice event is possible. Confidence Level of 2

Wed/Thurs- Models are over the place here. Could warm enough for rain. Or ice changing to rain or could more wintry. A little to far off and unconfident to assign a confidence level to this so far.

WInter Storm Watch for West KY by PAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
459 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008


ILZ077-078-082-083-085>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-
MOZ110>112-114-141900-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0006.081215T1200Z-081216T1200Z/
EDWARDS-WABASH-HAMILTON-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-
JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-
VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBION...MOUNT CARMEL...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...JONESBORO...VIENNA...
GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...
FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...
ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...
ELKTON...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
459 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT.

RAIN TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION. THE CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE
DAY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...MAY OVERSPREAD THE REGION AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ICING CONCERNS AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE 20S.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

$$

High Winds followed by Winter WX

First things first Late Tonight but more so tomorrow a wind event is likely.

WEST KY IS IN A WIND ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY.

Sustained winds of 20 to 25mph from the south with gusts of 40 to 45 mph are likely. Loose limbs and weak trees will come down. Since the trees are weak from a stormy 08 minor and very brief power outages may be possible. Also minor damage cant be ruled out.

Monday- (Winter WX round 1) Possible 1/10 to 1/4 inch ice. Mostly rain changing to freezing rain.
Temps. warm to the 40's and 50's than an arctic front passes and any precip changes to freezing rain due to warm air overriding swallow arctic air. Models are consistent on this round

Tuesday/Wednesday Morning. (Winter WX round 2) Possible sig. ice storm
No much on this one. Arctic Front sags south again. More moisture is injected and a potenial for siginficant ice is there. A lot of uncertainity. Will watch more and have more details Monday.

Too much uncertainity for a possible freezing rain changed to rain even on Wed Night and Thursday.

A lot of storms to watch out for in west ky.

Strong Winds/Winter Storm possible.

A complex situation is setting up in the western part of the bluegrass state. First things first enjoy a dry day with temperatures around 50ish and an increase in winds from the south.

Then as a pressure gradient enters the area tonight. A potential high wind event begins.

Starting tonight as the winds turn south an a low pressure system with an arctic cold front comes along the winds will start to pick up. It isn't going to take a lot to bring those strong winds 5000 to 7000ft to the surface. So sustained winds starting tonight though Sunday will be in the 20 to 29 MPH range with gusts as high as 40 to 49MPH. This will turn a lot of objects loose. Especially objects like loose items on porches and patios, weak tree limbs stressed by the windstorms, severe wx, and ice storms, and the droughts we have had since Summer of 2007. The IKE windstorm really weaken a lot of limbs, and those loose limbs and branches can easily fall. Even Monday and Tuesday wind gusts of 25mph may be possible but the worst is late tonight into Sunday night/very early Monday. There may even be some elevated non-severe thunderstorms around late Sunday night. Then
Then as an arctic cold front with shallow but pretty cold air moves into west KY along with storm system there is potential for rain that could change to freezing rain with maybe a little sleet mixed in along the ohio river.

As the arctic front will cross West KY sometime Monday Morning or towards the midday time frame. The high temps on Monday will be around 47-49 around NW KY and mid 50's in SW KY but those temperatures will be reached in the morning in NW KY and probably late morning/midday in KY/TN border area. In about 3 or 4 hours the temperature will drop about 20-30 degrees. By nightfall the temps. will be near or below freezing across all of West KY and any rain will changeover to freezing rain. There are uncertainties on how much precip. will be there when we go below freezing, but there is consistent model performance on the favorable EURO and NAM models at say there should be enough for some possible significant ice accumulation. The models are pretty consistent but this event is still 48 to 72 hours away. Also models do not handle shallow arctic air well, so placement on where the arctic front will be is key also.

There also the possibility of many shortwaves riding the arctic front which could be anywhere from the West KY parkway to south of Interstate 40. This could cause wintry mix situations Tuesday-Thursday but confidence is quite low.

dec 12 outlook

TN SNOW

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1823.810.html

good link for TN weather situation

weather update

one to two inches of snow possible in parts of Mid TN. Areas mostly south and east of nashville where snow is falling. As a cold core low moves toward the area expect some bands of snow maybe mixed with sleet to fall. This could cause hazardous travel in parts of TN tonight and tomm morning.


Be very careful out there.

Great link to discuss TN weather

http://tennesseewx.com/index.php

Active TN

Flooding, Winter Weather, and Strong Winds. Where could you find all of this at parts of Mid TN is where that is located. Southern and Eastern portions.

Flood Watch- 1 to 3 inch soaker on top of a soaked ground. Flooding is possible.
Winter WX Advisory- 1 inch of snow expected after the rain in parts of Plateau and Southern Mid TN. Winter wx advisory for Franklin, Moore, and Lincoln counties. With a dusting to an inch across the Plateau in Mid TN.
Wind- Wind gusts upwards to 30 to 40mph esp in southern mid tn and the plateau.

weather discussion

A slight precip chance tonight/

Wow December 2008 has been quite a strange weather month.

1) A surprise snow in NE AL/ parts of Mid/East TN/ N GA produces 1-3 inches on Dec 1st.
2) Several wicked cold snaps were predicted and they all failed
3) A bunch of surprise clippers hit the area to our north throughout this month.
4) This is so far the biggest surprise. San Antonio went from 85 to a sleet filled mess all in four hours. Houston and Lufkin TX are getting snow now due to a very cold core upper low system. Louisiana and Miss could see in 3 to 5 inches of snow not rain. As far as Hattiesburg MS and even 1 inch of snow and sleet as far south as Lake Charles.

So what will happen next who knows.

A slight chance of rain/sleet/freezing rain is possible for Hopkinsville and Elkton but it is very light and only a 20%

Watch out for a pot. heavy rain or even an ice event Next Monday-Wed because of an strong arctic front and an overrunning event.

Good Rain event right now.

It appears that we are looking to pick up quite a few inches of rain. We need this after a pretty dry fall occurred with the dry ground I'm not expecting widespread flash flooding or a big flood event. There could be ponding of the roads in some low lined areas.

And also Wind gusts of over 30MPH.

I have been doing finals so haven't gotten on here like I wanted to, but by this weekend and next week I will def. have more time.

dec 9th overview

some storng winds and good rain

Looks like wind gusting to 35mph tonight and more tomm.

Confidence level map comes out tonight.

Right now strong winds about confidence level of 3 and may be close to wind advisory levels.

1 to 3 inches of good rain are expected.

Dec 11st GraphicCast.

A little warmup which I believe will be shortlived and only last about a week will go on after Dec 12th. Of course with finals going on that is good because I don't really need winter wx distractions, and also a lot of people going back home from college.. But I hope we get slammed by winter weather after Dec 21st.

little clipper system

Light dusting to half inch is possible from a Paduach to Livermore KY line north in the next few hours. With flurries elsewhere due to a clipper system.

Dec 4th/5th 2002 a lookback

A raging gulf low/ noreaster type pattern came alive. It started with a major storm in the Oklahoma area into Arkansas and MO. Then West KY got hit before it effected the I-95 corridor.
The temps were cold enough to have snow, but some war air advection came in and change some of the precip to Frz rain. In matter of fact in Southwest KY most of it was ice and accumulated to an half inch to inch. In Northwest KY several inches of snow fell along with the ice.

So a great winter storm as school and business's were closed all week.

Nov 30th/ Dec 1st event is in the books.

I went aggressive and it didn't work out for West KY I think I did do well for most of Mid TN with the western edges of the Plateau like Cookeville getting a dusting, and the higher areas like Jamestown, Brydstown, Crossville, down to Sewanee getting 1 to 2 inches of snow. A dusting to half inch elsewhere west of the Plateau.

F- 59 or below
D- 60-69
C- 70-79
B-80-89
A- 90-99

Nov 30th/Dec 1st
West KY: 67\D I overestimated precip in West KY. Went too aggressive on snowfall total talking about 1 to 1.5 inches. Did mention slick roads, and not too bad considering state the models were in.
Mid TN: 80/B Call map hard to understand. Got the Plateau areas right. Could of done better in NE TN around Tri City area with crazy models did pretty good for the first event.

My own grading is just for fun though and is not meant for anything but a fun way to see how I did.

Snow in TN and AL yesterday

Quick info areas of Cumberland Plateau picked up 1 to 3 inches from a good surprise little shortwave. Lift and temps below freezing helped in the first snowfall in Middle TN. To bad west ky didnt get anything.

Plateau isnt too bad.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
334 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...

.WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT, LEAVING MANY AREAS
WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION.

TNZ011-033-034-066-079-080-020600-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.081201T2134Z-081202T0600Z/
PICKETT-OVERTON-FENTRESS-CUMBERLAND-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
334 PM CST MON DEC 1 2008

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR
FREEZING MOST AREAS ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND WILL DROP
SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. THEREFORE, MANY PLACES ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH
OF SNOW THROUGH MIDNIGHT, LEAVING A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERALL
FROM TODAY`S WINTER WEATHER EVENT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

$$

ROSE

weather update

Some roads are turning nasty in parts of Middle TN. Advisory went up till noon for Franklin County.Even here in Hoptown and West Ky Snow Showers are flying. It looks so pretty to bad it isn't sticking here, but in the Plateau it is and roads are treacherous because of it. Cookeville TN Even had to postpone thier Christmas parade because of hazardous conditions.

a little snow for Dec 1st.

Dusting to half inchi s expected across West KY today.