Message from a friend Gas Prices up

as many of you know that gas prices has jumped alot from $3.51 to about $4.60 for some & my weather buddy has just told me it may go up to $5 dollas & the reason for that is Houston TX is a major oil where we pretty much get our gas from & they are closed cause of IKE track will hit them.

So to get your gas prices go to www. gasbuddy.
com

www. gasbuddy.
com

IKE rains across West KY might be less than 1 inch.

Only .25 to 1 inch of rain is expected in West KY this weekend. Sunday looks to be the wettest day, and there may be some potential for brief severe wx. GFS is working that NW trend that has the low from West Ky and now as far north as WI and MI. The ridge across the SE is sterring this northward and eastward.

Ike's Path

IKE late tonight/early tomm. looks to take a direct hit on Houston. Tornadoes, surge, coastal flooding, inland flooding, strong winds, and huge winds are all possible in the TX/LA areas effected.

heads up

Heavy Rain and severe wx may be possible in West KY Sat Night-SUn Night stay tuned for more info in posts tomm and Sat.

9/11 7 years ago

Please take a moment to remember those who lost their lives in the biggest terrorist attack on American soil today. In those attacks in the field of PA, Pentagon, and the Trade towers of New York.

For now on 9/11 will be referred to as Patriot Day

IKE is in the Gulf spinning

Hurricane IKE is and will be a huge story this week. IT is in the middle of the Gulf and a tough forecast remains. Ike Can make landfall anywhere from Corpus Christi TX to Cameron LA it will depend on how the effects of a stronger range in Mexico and a strong trough containing a season changing cold front effect IKE.

If IKE continues slow IKE may make the dash north just before landfall and end up in Beaumont TX or possibly West Louisiana for a landfall. If it goes as planned it will hit Houston/Galveston metro area head on and move towards Temple TX and then turn northeastward.

If it speeds up a lot it may move more south towards Corpus Christi and the Victoria TX area.

SO a lot is at stake

Now it looks like it will move though KY and TN as a tropcial depression but a lot of unknowns are not known.

Heavy Rain may be possible in KY and TN

IKE in Cuba

Ike is spinning surge, heavy rain and winds across Cuba. A high pressure is expected to now settle in Mexico. This may result in the track of Ike being in TX and away from LA, MS, and AL. More details as it moves more into the Gulf.

IKE will effect the story this weekend

Major Hurricane IKE will move and possibly devastate CUBA. What it does afterward who knows. A powerful trough and a cold front moving into West KY in the Thurs Night/Fri range will be a key in when IKE stops moving west and moves more due north.

Severe threat is done Stock market does horrible.

Severe threat due to dry air advection and shear moving further north didn't happen. Fall severe weather fans will have to wait for a later date for that threat again. Since West KY fall severe wx season is Sept-Nov it probably wont be long to wait.

Stock market due to jobs report and weak economy nearly completely collapsed on itself going down 344. If the job outlook tomorrow is really bad watch out it will get will ugly around this country quickly.

update update

With better shear up north and power of cold front slight risk is now just from Paduach to Sebree north. Isolated tornadoes and brief gusty winds are possiblie in this area. A brief warning cant be ruled out for the rest of West KY.
Threat should be over with by early tonight

Severe storms possible today.

While not expected to be an extreme outbreak. I am concerned about the possibility early this afternoon of non-super cell storms with damaging wind and tornado potential. There are a lot of potential for a bust or nothing , but also the chance of isolated tornadoes although not big.

Best time would be 11am-5pm.

FOr all of West KY esp from Cadiz to Henderson KY west is best threat.

Events for West KY this weekend

Wickliffe KY harvest festival from today though Saturday.

Hopkinsville's Trail of Trails starting on Sept 6th

Dawson SPrings= Home country weekend Sept 5th-7th in Dawson Springs

Tornado threat tommorow

Although not a strong or very sig. tornado threat. There may be enough shear and instability to cause some damaging winds in excess of 58MPH and brief tornadoes. Remains of Gustav will run along a cold front that will move though West KY instead of stall. The cold front is powerful but will only drop temperatures a little bit. As it loses its punch moving across west ky. Gustavs last spin and the cold front should lead to our first fall severe wx threat of the year.

Non supercell thunderstorms in a sheared enviorment cant be ruled out with tornadoes and wind a maybe.

An tornado outbreak is not expected and whether West KY gets a tornado or not is a very low confidence prediction. Enough shear and instability may exist from 10am-6pm tomorrow to allow the possibly of a isolated tornado and maybe strong wind also locally heavy rain will be a threat stay tuned for news and radio and media.

I may not because of family and dentist be able to track this. If something happens heed the warnings, but there is also a good chance that we luck out the chance for tornadoes is not great and intense shouldnt be too much of a problem, but up to an EF-1 can cause damage.

So don't panic, but don't ignore tornado warnings if issued. We could have a few tornadoes and wind damage, but also we could not get anything a watch, storm report, or a warning at all.

Update

Tropcial moisture is possible today in areas like Wickliffe and Hickman KY. ISolated showers are possible rest of the day and night tonight. No severe wx is expected today and tonight.

TOmm. a complicated forecast is in store. It looks like a isolated wind damage is possible from storms. Both maybe convective and strong winds 20-30mph expected. A slight risk of severe wx is forecasted for West KY tommorow. The threats are a isolated tornado threat and a damaging wind threat.

more info in a few minutes.

Slight risk of severe and locally heavy rain

A tropical rain/ brief tornado threat is possible across West KY starting today. Esp. Thursday though. The remains of TD Gustav will move NE across MO and ARK along a cold front and lead to a mini tornado/strong wind possibly.


The biggest threat may be some good rain esp in the Purchase area of West KY. Could produce up to a inch or two of rain in some areas esp if the stalled cold front is closer to west ky and the remains of Gustav move more eastward.


SPC has a slight risk today west of the miss. but a brief spin up cant be ruled out in far west ky today. SPC tomorrow has a slight risk for the purchase area of West Kentucky. For brief winds/ an maybe a tornado threat and the best time for this will probably be the 10am-5pm range as the shear weakens throughout the day.

Gustav could effect West KY

Not a far fetched concept that Gustav can effect us with some rain don't know how much. And maybe a brief tornado spin up. The best chance would be in Jackson Purchase area of a brief tornado and strong winds. It really depends on if it moves NE and how far NE it moves. A more eastward trend than things get interesting.

Damage in the area

Flooding range and some damage in moderate potenial. Gustav has made landfall in near Cocodrie LA as a strong CAT 2 weakening should occur thoughout the day.

Gustav is coming home

Gustav makes landfall at Houma area it looks like. As a weak cat 3/ strong cat 2 storm.

Gustav's countdown

Gustav expected to make landfall in Morgan City. Galveston TX though Panama City FL could fell the effects. From flooding, winds, surge, waves, and tornadoes.

Tornadoes can happen in Winter time to

For instance.

2/19/1884- The great ENigma Outbreak causes damage across the Ohio Valley and Southeast that we can imagine to this date they cant figure out the exact death toll.

1/18/1996 a polar/arctic front causes a F1 tornado in Paduach devastating a car shop. BIg temp drops occur out ahead of this front and the harsh winter of 95-96 comes back in full force

1/24/1997 the supercell outbreak producing a bunch of tornadoes in Middle TN including an F4 in Murfreesboro TN. Luckily no fatalities occue.

1/17/1999 an extensive tornadic squall line moves across KY/TN producing 4.5 inch hail, 105 mph winds, and tornadoes

1/22/1999 Clarksville TN, West Padauch get hit by tornadoes 1 tornado fat. in Camden TN

1/3/2000 A big time tornado devastates Owensboro KY. Crittenden and Webster county also see f3 tornadoes. Major flash flooding also occurs.

1/23/2002 A big time flash flooding event in Mid TN is preceded by a F2 causing 1 million dollars of damage in the northside of Calhoun KY.

1/2/2006 West KY gets spared but central and east ky received a surprise tornado outbreak. T-storm watches were in effect during this event.

1/29/2008 a more damaging version of 1/18/1996

2/5/2008- Super TUesday 2008 should I say one look back on my Feb archives.

September Events Link

http://travel.ky.gov/tourism/KI.Tourism.CMS.Templates/CalendarResultsPage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRNODEGUID=%7bEF06FCA1-145D-402D-89C5-447E2D847C5C%7d&NRORIGINALURL=%2fevents%2fsearchEvents%2ehtm&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

^^ Very nice link for events across west ky^^ (Paduach, Marion, Hopkinsville, Cadiz, Wickliffe area)

http://travel.ky.gov/tourism/KI.Tourism.CMS.Templates/CalendarResultsPage.aspx?NRMODE=Published&NRNODEGUID=%7bEF06FCA1-145D-402D-89C5-447E2D847C5C%7d&NRORIGINALURL=%2fevents%2fsearchEvents%2ehtm&NRCACHEHINT=Guest

^^ Very nice link for events across Evansville Tri State area of West KY (Henderson, Owensboro, Madisonville)

Nov 24th 2001 a tornado hits Calloway county

On the morning of Saturday November 24th 2001 the silent November morning calm before Thanksgiving weekend festivities ensure was broken. Harris Grove in Western Calloway county west of Murray was directly hit by this tornado.

Extensive damage occurred in this tornado over 500 thousand I will post the survey from NWS PAH from this tornado.

A little history on this day ARK and East OK was supposed to have a big tornado outbreak. It did happen with Hunt ARK being devastate by a tornado. After that these storms were supposed to do that in Arkansas the squall line was supposed to form than weaken in West KY.

That didnt happen despite some very crappy instability the wind shear and forcing of cold front led to rotation in the squall line thus leading to a rotating supercell feature in the squall line that produced the tornado in Harris Grove KY. Which caused some extensive damage to homes and moblie homes and carports.

A tornado watch did go in effect a few hours before hand talking about some tornado pot. in supercell features of the squall line.

Survey is here.

000
ABUS34 KPAH 250010
PNSPAH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
610 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2001

EARLIER TODAY...SATURDAY 24 NOVEMBER 2001...A REPRESENTATIVE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH CONDUCTED A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SURVEY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALLOWAY COUNTY KENTUCKY. BETWEEN 650 AM AND 700 AM CST THIS SATURDAY MORNING...AN F2 TORNADO CUT A10 MILE LONG PATH FROM RAYBURN ROAD (SOUTHWEST OF HARRIS GROVE)... THROUGH HARRIS GROVE...TO JUST NORTH OF STELLA. FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF THIS WEATHER EVENT WITH DETAILS KNOWN TO US AT THIS TIME. AN ASTERISK (*) INDICATES A REVISION SINCE THE LAST STATEMENT ISSUED AT 250 PM CST...

STORM CATEGORIZATION.... F2 TORNADO
DATE OF OCCURRENCE...... SATURDAY 24 NOVEMBER 2001
TIME OF OCCURRENCE...... 650 AM TO 700 AM CST
COMMUNITIES AFFECTED.... HARRIS GROVE AND STELLA
PATH LENGTH............. 10 MILES
PATH WIDTH.............. UP TO 300 YARDS
HIGHEST WIND ESTIMATE... 120 MPH
*INJURIES................ 6 (2 SERIOUS)
FATALITIES.............. NONE
*DAMAGE.................. ESTIMATED AT $550K

3 HOMES DESTROYED
2 MOBILE HOMES DEMOLISHED
10 BARNS DESTROYED
3 GARAGES DESTROYED
12 HOMES DAMAGED
7 MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED
12 BARNS DAMAGED

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS REGARDING THIS SURVEY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY AT 270.744.6440 (X822).
PRESLEY

Weather Undergroud Gustav's path

Low Cape can produce severe 11/7/96

On the day after Obama's great speech and McCain selected Palin as VP I will continue fall severe weather awareness talking about Nov 7th 1996 Low Cape/High Shear event which caused damaging and strong winds along with a series of F-2 tornadoes in Huntland TN in Franklin County.

A powerful polar front charged across Kentucky and TN on the day of November 7th 1996 and collided with a warm air mass with temps well into the mid to upper 60's. Instability wasn't get because of some cloudcover.

The tremedous shear of this November system and also the strong forcing along the Arctic front led to a narrow intense squall line. The shear and forcing allowed a supercell to form in Franklin county with 4 tornadoes touching down including an Ef2 tornado in Huntland TN. Altogether we learn that yes very low CAPE if enough forcing and shear is present can produce severe wx and even tornadoes.

You dont necessary need classic instability just some shear and forcing with a little instability big things can happen.

This line also caused an injury in McEven TN and caused some damage in Cadiz KY.

New ORleans and parts of Miss evacuates

Confidence is increasing that strong winds and flooding could devastate the area so for precaution disaster preparedness is already in full force.

Gustav is a threat

Gustav is expected to become possibly as low as a sub 900 low. This is an extremely powerful low pressure system. In comparsion a 950 would be a Cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

So this could be at least a CAT 3 hurricane so anyone on the Gulf needs to watch this system. Like Fay, Gustav may have at least a little impact on weather here in West KY.

Don't forget tomm. we get to talk about fall severe weather.

Gustav is coming towards the Gulf