Update

A moderate Risk for Severe Weather is now in effect for all of Western KY, and Middle TN. In a complex situation a cluster of Long Track Supercells, and a MCS will move from Arklatex region to the Arklamiss region. Out ahead of it including West KY and West and Mid TN more storms could form that could produce large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The time-frame should be anywhere from 10AM to 4 PM for West KY, and from 11:30am-7:30PM for Middle TN. towards the end of the time-frame a serial derecho may form.

The danger is if any storm tomorrow can produce a tornado, it can produce a long track tornado. With storm motions of 55 to 75MPH from SW to NE expected there will not be a lot of time to take cover, so if a Tornado Warning is issued take cover immediately.

A conference call is in the works right now, with more details.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs
Link to Conference Call.

Instability will be an issue. Shear, and Moisture return will be sufficient. Some of the Shear measurements are Four Times more than necessary for storm rotation. Instability with CAPE values only being in the 500-1000 range may limit the storms along with LI of only about -2 which isn't that great. Wind Shear, and Moisture Return will allow for storms to develop, and become severe whether it is just another event, or a potentially historic tornado outbreak will decide on if we can get any breaks in clouds, any more instability, where any MCS systems are at.