Complex storm here

A powerful system is currently on the move across the Plains. This system has produced tornadoes already in Colorado, Kansas, and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle Region. This storm is expected to drift on to the Northeast in which the threat of severe storms and tornadoes will go along with it.

Western Kentucky and surrounding areas will also get to deal with this storm. For Western Kentucky the stage is setting for a long lived event that could start in after midnight tomorrow night, and go on into the afternoon and early evening hours of Saturday. This means that up to 18 hours of severe weather and heavy rain is possible.

The first round will be later on Friday mostly after might, but an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon and early evening hours either, as the forcing and dynamics start to edge into the region. The threat for the most part here will be Large Hail, and maybe a Severe Wind Gust, although tornadoes cannot be totally ruled out the greatest threat on Friday Night will exist to our West.

The complex situation occurs on Saturday. Another low is expected to take over, as the low in IL occludes. This low is expected to move across East Arkansas into Far West KY and into Central Indiana. Along with this strengthening low the forcing, and shear(the change in wind direction or speed with height) will very strong. If sufficient instability can occur? Than a severe weather event is likely, maybe even a Severe Weather Outbreak. If instability struggles to build, and a big moisture sucking Deep South MCS is present, and lingers throughout the afternoon, than the threat will probably be limited to an isolated or scattered wind/hail event, with a brief spin-up possible. Locally heavy rain could also be possible with flooding issues in the heavier storms, along with strong Non-Thunderstorm Winds with gusts up to 45-50MPH.

Stay tuned to further details on this event.