KY tornado page

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=sspm#recent_ky_tors

Gov. Steve Beshear has declared the Month of March to be severe weather awareness month.

Tornado Drill for TN

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=meg&storyid=48831&source=0

Tornado Drill for TN. At 9:15am this is not real, but for Severe Weather Awareness Week it is good for practice your tornado safety.

Rainy Feb. Day

Showers and non-severe thunderstorms are moving across Far West KY. From a Fulton KY to Wickliffe KY line moving North and East. Rain with maybe a rumble of Thunder will move across Western Kentucky this evening, and into tonight.

Meanwhile highs got into the low 60's in NW KY, and the Mid to even Upper 60's across the rest of Western Kentucky.

Results from FEb 14th-15th storm

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=valentinenight2010

Amounts ranged from a half inch in far SW KY to 5.5 inches in Owensboro. Sunny days and warmth maybe up to the 40's which will feel a little warmer could melt some snow that has been on the ground for over 7 to 10 days.

A wintry Valentine

Winter Storm Watch for NW KY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
920 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

.A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ILZ075>078-080>083-086-087-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014-015-018>020-
141100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0004.100215T0000Z-100215T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-SALINE-GALLATIN-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-
SPENCER-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN
920 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* STEADY SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE
 WARNED AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
 PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS...TO SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS TO CALHOUN
 KENTUCKY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...THEN
 TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY BE ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE
 POSSIBILITY OF 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL. MOTORISTS SHOULD
 BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
 THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
 CORRIDOR OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
 BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

Winter wx advisory cancelled for West KY tonight but still a dusting to an inch possible by late morning in Sunday. main snow event will be Sunday Afternoon though Monday Midday.

First round call map

Tonight from 10PM-10AM doesn't include Sunday afternoon into Monday

West KY Sunday/Monday snow go

This map is from Sunday afternoon though Monday Morning with the clipper. It doesn't include the 1-2 inch tonight and early tomorrow. Most of West KY will change to rain except for maybe Henderson/Owensboro area. The Clipper will move across West KY on Valentine's Day the heaviest snow will be as the clipper/ull becomes more dynamic this will occur in NE portions of West KY in which a little bit more moisture will be available across Daviess,Mclean, and eastern Henderson counties. The system sucks in more moisture, and could be a potent snow machine in the Louisville CWA. Uncertainties on what will be snow or what will be rain in far SW KY could keep amounts down as well for that area.

New Tag on Severe T-storm Warnings

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=48261&source=0

This tag would try and focus more on what is expected in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This will be experimental starting in March though October. So comment if you want to comment on the use of the T-storm Warnings during this timeframe.

To be one with the clipper wings.

So snow is possible for your Valentine for West KY and even into TN.

Cold Hearted Clipper Heading Our Way.

Snow Go Again

Watch out for a system starting tomorrow night. This system may bring a dusting to an 3/4 inch for SW KY, and half inch to inch for NW KY.

Than snow changes to rain on Sunday as WAA moves though. NW KY may never change to rain and stay all snow, but it is a wait and see. The greatest chance of measurable snow would be Sunday into early Monday.

Some 2 inch+ amounts are possible during this timeframe, and some advisories may need to be issues

Travel Impacts tonight esp. lakes and eastward

Beware of black ice tonight and into tomorrow. Some of the light scattered showers may add to a little bit of thin ice, plus the slush may freeze over.

travel issues

All advisories and warnings are expired. Slick roads are still occuring even some slush on the main roads in NW Mid TN and West KY. Some slush may refreeze meaning travel may be hazardous tonight and tommorow. So be careful if you have travel plans today and tomorrow.

Snow updates event about to end.

Amounts from Paducah.

Central City: 4.5 inches
Owensboro: 6-7 inches
Hopkinsville: I reported 5.2 in my brief measurement outside
Murray: 5.5 inches
Cadiz: 4.0 inches
Madisonville: 5.0 inches
Dawson Springs: 7.0 inches

Hopkinsville has above average snowfall.

For Hopkinsville KY with 5.2 inches and snow still falling though 9 or 9:30am we have surpassed our seasonal average of 9.2 inches of snow.

This is the first above average snowfall winter for Hopkinsville since the Winter of 2002-2003.

Paducah, Henderson, and Owensboro are also pretty close to their averages for this winter, despite a somewhat late start.

Since Owensboro/Henderson has reported up to 6 inches of snow and 6 to 8 with the last event, plus several other minor events they are above average as well.

Feb 9th update

West KY is reporting widespread 1 to 2 inches esp. Webster County South. Heavier snow bands moving across North Mid TN may move into West KY in the next few hours with up half inch to inch an hour possible.

Snow continues. around Ashland City/ Nashville/ down even towards Franklin snowfall rates of near 2 inches an hour are being reported. Up to 4 inches of snow may fall before chnaging to rain near the Nashville metro area. Further north and northwest snow continues and there is a depend on when or even if it ever changes to rain.

Weather update time

The first main batch of snow is now moving across West KY and most of Mid TN. Heavier snow returns on radar have been detected near Hickman KY down towards Paris TN. This batch of snow could by later this evening start to cover the roads in snow beware.

My last call map

Confidence level of 3 out of 5 for winter weather for tonight and tomm. morning I forgot that part.

Dry air aside the potenial for snow has increased

The NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for all of West KY. Paducah expects a pretty widespread amount of up to 4 inches across the area. Still some uncertainity on how much dry air is in the system, and the temps. being borderline along the TN/KY border.

Stay tuned for more details later this afternoon.

Dry Slot could limit snow.

There is still a chance to 1 to 4 inches across West KY, but the presence of a dry mid level(dewpoint doesn't measure this), and a dry slot by the northern stream in IL may limit snow accumulation. Still think if the temperatures cooperate that most of West KY will get 2 to 3 inches locally more except for Todd, Christian, Southern Muhlenberg, which due to the changeover to rain may only get around 1 inch.

Confidence Level is still 2 out of 5 for Winter Weather. A little low due to the dryslot concerns, and the borderline temps along the KY/TN border.

Winter Weather Advisory Time

Although there is precipitation on the radar this morning most of that is not coming down. The atmosphere will need to saturate first for the precipitation to fall. For all of West KY it should start as snow this afternoon, and continue overnight. South of a Hickman KY to Central City KY it should change to rain overnight, and maybe a brief change to rain further north. Areas along the Ohio River from Paducah to Owensboro have the better shot of being mainly snow, and could see 2 to 4 maybe locally 5 inches. While areas along the TN border will probably see 1 to 3 before changing to rain with locally more across Hickman, Fulton, and Graves counties if the change to rain occurs later, or is only a limited changeover.

West KY snow call map

Red: 2-5 inches (including Henderson and Owensboro)
Yellow: 1-4 inches (includes Paducah, Providence, Madisonville(downtown north)
Green: 1/2 to 1 1/2 inches (includes Fulton, Eddyville)
Light Blue: Dusting to 1 inch (includes Hopkinsville, Greenville, Oak Grove, Elkton)

The toughest forecast ever possible

- The white zone is mainly snow in which 3 to 4 inches may occur in heavier bands, and 1 to 3 in the lighter bands. Dry Slotting is a concern being between the two systems in West KY and far NW TN into NE Arkansas. Also the areas on the southern part of the snow area may mix in with rain or a little sleet pellets in the middle of the event to lower amounts.
- The Light Green is Snow and Rain maybe 1 to 2 inches in far NW TN and parts of West KY near the white line. With half inch to inch of snow near the dark green line. A lot of uncertainty here. Some measurable snow can occur here, or a mostly rain event
- The Dark Green is rain rain rain go away come again another day. If the low comes in quicker, and with evap. cooling a dusting to half inch cannot be ruled out very early, but WAA will take care of things quickly. A dusting to half inch cannot ruled out later Tuesday after the system, but Cold and Dry air will take care of things very quickly.

After the storm moves though it transfers to the coast, and then Norman the Naughty Nor'Easter forms and slams DC and Baltimore again and again.

- This is a very tough forecast so this may not be a very accurate map if things take a sudden unexpected turn.

Winter Storm Watch for NW KY

Another Low coming down the Subtropical Pipeline

After a dusting of snow for most of West KY maybe some isolated measurable amounts in NW KY. The attention shifts to a potential precipitation maker in the Monday/Tuesday period. There is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and this will be a tough call even on the day of the event.

There is some model uncertainty on the track of the low, how much moisture will be available because of drier air the further east, how much warm air advection will occur, and how far north it comes.

Right now mostly rain for the Murray to Hopkinsville Kentucky area. Some snow could accumulate and mix with sleet/rain before changing to rain, and changing back to some light snow in the rest of West KY. There is a lot of uncertainty on how much will be winter wx compared to rain, and if it will be a significant event. Stay Tuned especially if you live from a Hickman KY to Benton KY to Central City KY north.

Light snow update

Winter WX Advisory for the following counties: Henderson KY, Union KY, Daviess KY. 1 to 3 inches of wet snow is possible in these areas.

Dusting to an inch is expected across rest of Western Kentucky.

Two Years Ago Super Tuesday Outbreak:

Some Links:

Storm Plot:
http://www.spc.nssl.noaa.gov/climo/online/sp3/plot.php?lat=36.548&lon=87.564&zoom=140&mode=0&bdate=20080205/1200&edate=20080206/1200&torflag=1&windflag=1&hailflag=1&t01=0&t02=5&t03=0&t04=9999&t05=0&t06=9999&t07=0&t08=9999&t09=0&t10=9999&h01=0&h02=9999&w01=0&w02=9999&showt=-1&showh=-1&showw=-1&cntys=1

Memphis Coverage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfG7-3YyaxU

The Weather Channel Coverage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bV2MzJWKAyc&feature=related

EF-4 Arkansas Coverage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UExLj2Q5yIU&feature=related

Williamson County TN tornado
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91gWEHZDJBU&feature=PlayList&p=0A863008A2D72821&index=16

Tennessee Weather Zone is highly concerned
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1018.0.html

I was highly concerned I said this. "A severe threat I brought up in past few days in coming to life. I will briefly discuss the threats and close outbreaks for this event.
This is our biggest threat since Oct 18th some of us biggest threat since April 7th 2006 the Number 1 weather event of 2006.
There could be 3 rounds of severe weather of severe weather tonight and tomorrow night across West KY and Mid TN.
First Round- (8pm-2am) West KY
This round will start at about 8PM as storms possibly supercells will move along a moist boundary layer from Arkansas to Kentucky and Far west TN. Isolated Tornadoes, Hail, and Damaging Winds appear all possible locally heavy rain will also be a problem. This event could set outflows for the next to events to bust out.
Second Round- Whole Area (2pm-7pm)
This round is mostly supercells that will form depending on instability with temps in the 70's this time of year that wont be too hard though. Tornado threat a Strong tornado threat may occur at this time and the serial derecho may start to line up. Storm motions will be 60-75mph so these storm are fast rockets. If occurs in school listen to teachers and duck down and protect your head no matter if winds and tornadoes cause with both containing wind gusts in excess of 90mph it can cause severe damage.
Round 3 (9pm-3am) west KY esp MID TN
This is when the cold front plows though. Derecho event seems likely with damaging winds of 90mph plus with supercells in the line and out ahead. This could lead to widespread power outages and a dangerous night event.
For TN there are taking part in Super Tuesday and important political day. Still get out and vote for TN people but be careful of this risk of storms. Several tornadoes upwards to ef2 or ef3 and damaging winds of 90-125mph may be possible. "

Feb 5th outlook of rain and maybe a little snow.

It is National Weather Persons Day.

Rain is coming, maybe a flizzard later.

A line of rain is moving across Arkansas and Southwest Tennessee now. This batch of rain is expected to move across Southwest Kentucky after 1pm, and into the Henderson and Owensboro KY area after 3:30pm. Some sleet may mix in early; before it turns into a cold rain.

Than on Friday afternoon into Saturday as a upper level low moves across the KY/TN border there could be some snow. There is possible 1 inch+ snow band that may form in NW KY there is low confidence of this occurring, but what is more likely is a widespread dusting with locally a half inch to an inch in any snow-band or heavier snow shower that may fall.

Bogans in Snow

Bogans Dog in Snow early on Jan. 30th during the 5.7 inches of snow.

It is the Shortest Month of the Year

Welcome to February the shortest month on the Juilan Calendar. If things come together with a -AO, and -NAO along with the El Nino enhanced Subtropical Jet this could be an active and possiblity memorable month.

There is a possible threat could be all rain, rain to snow, or rain to wintry mix. This is expected to occur this weekend so we have a long way before we start talking about it.