Very nasty morning travel

Temps in the single digits and even below zero in the Henderson KY along with the snow that hasn't melted will make travel conditions hard.

What I posted on Facebook.

Very nasty road conditions out there. With temperatures in the single digits pretty much anything out there has thin layers of ice on it. Use caution early today when traveling.

Final Report from West KY.

OWENSBORO /DAVIESS CO/... 5.0 FINAL
STANLEY /DAVIESS CO/... 5.0
MACEO /DAVIESS CO/... 4.0
PEMBROKE /CHRISTIAN CO/... 5.7
NWS PADUCAH /MCCRACKEN CO/... 4.7 FINAL
CADIZ /TRIGG CO/... 6.0 ESTIMATED  FINAL
DAWSON SPRINGS /HOPKINS CO/... 4.0  FINAL
HOPKINSVILLE /CHRISTIAN CO/...5 TO 7 DRIFTS TO NEAR A FOOT
MAYFIELD /GRAVES/... 4 TO 5 FINAL
MURRAY /CALLOWAY/... 4.0 FINAL
MADISONVILLE /HOPKINS/... 5 TO 7 FINAL
BEACH GROVE /MCLEAN/... 4 FINAL
GREENVILLE /MUHLENBERG/... 6.2 FINAL

Beware of Travel

Travel is not recommended today across Mid TN or West KY unless you must travel, just stay home, and play in the snow, or in parts of Mid TN the snow and ice. Even the interstates, and main roads are icy. With temperatures in the low to mid 20's the salt is having a tough time fighting the snow and ice on the roads.

Travel Conditions watch out

http://511.ky.gov/

Beware of slick spots the snow is tapering off, but there will be very slick and dangerous travel still esp. the secondary roads.

4 to 8 inches of snow fell across all of West KY.

Updates so far

Reports from Now
Daviess, Henderson, Union: Just starting but could get up to an inch at least soon
Webster, Mclean, Crittenden Counties: 2 to 3 inches
Trigg, Todd, Christian Counties:3 to 4 inches
Fulton, Hickman, Graves, Marshall, Carlisle: 3 to 5 inches
McCracken Livingston Ballard: 2 to 3 inches
Hopkins Caldwell Muhlenberg: 2 to 3 inches

Projected Snow Totals
Daviess, Henderson, Union: 2 to 4 inches
Webster, McLean, Crittenden McCracken Livingston and Ballard: 4 to 7 inches
Fulton, Hickman, Graves, Carlisle, Marshall: 6 to 9 inches
Hopkins Caldwell Muhlenberg: 4 to 6 inches
Todd, Trigg, Christian: 5 to 9 inches

Remember that the Upper level low should dump more snow across West KY especially after midnight into early tomorrow.

Some brief reports

So far about 1 and a half to 4 inches looking at reports has occurred in this first round. Remember we may get another inch to two before the lull and the break.

Here are some NWS reports:

Cadiz to Hopkinsville- around 2 inches
Mayfield- 2 to 3 inches
Marshall County- up to 3 inches
Carlisle County- up to 3 inches
Fulton County- 3 to locally 4 inches
Hopkins County- Up to 2 inches

Snow bands live on

Some heavy snow maybe even a half inch an hour in parts of Murray, Paducah, Fulton KY area. It will move east into West KY in which several inches of accumulation may occur especially in the Purchase area by 9pm.

Some roads especially secondary roads are very slick. Even there are slick portions of the Purchase Parkway.

Not quite as snowy but still a nice event possible.

Before we update here are the snow amounts for now.
NW KY: 2-4
SW KY: 3-7

First of all finally some precipitation can make it to West KY. Some intense snow bands are forming around Paris TN and Fulton and near Mayfield area. Some localized bands could dump some accumulation in the area. Travel may become tough in moderate to heavier snow areas.

Update

- Heavy Snow has been reported west of Cape Girardeau in Southeast Missouri. Reports of precipitation falling across Middle TN.

Expect the snow and snow/sleet to fill across SE MO and SW KY as we go throughout the morning. Also there appears to be a band along the Ohio River that could be producing snow. Once you get your atmosphere saturated it will start to go downhill in the next few hours.

Winter Storm outlook

Delayed but not denied a winter storm is coming soon.

Update the confidence level.

Update Confidence Level Map. May go to 4 or 5 early tommorow morning depending on what goes down. Watch otu for light sleet or freezing rain from Arkansas stuff tonight, than 3 to 4 inches in NW KY could fall as snow. For the rest it is a question on whether it is a 3 to 5 event, or a 6 to 13 event still.

Stoplight MAP Jan 29th Winter Storm

First of all this is what I call a stoplight map. Pretty much a call map, but I separate West KY into three areas. No Particular order each color represents will be discussed, and we will discuss how much and what type of winter precipitation will be expected. Also I can use this in heavy rain events, or any event where there you can split the Western Bluegrass into three pieces.

Green Light: Includes OWB(Owensboro) and HEN(Henderson) This area has the least confidence in big 6+ snowfall, but I am very confident that measurable snowfall will occur, and still especially southern portions can still locally get 6 or 7 inches with about 3-4 in the Henderson/Owensboro proper. The models have trended more precipitation more northward which is great for this area. Good thing here is all the precipitation is expected to be snow big questions up to the event will be how much moisture can reach, and therefore how much snow. Cold air will make for travel headaches, and serious problems cannot be ruled out south of US 60.

Yellow Light: Includes PAH(Paducah) and MADI(Madisonville) This area has good confidence in snowfall, and particularly heavy snowfall esp. along and south of the West KY Parkway. The Yellow Light Zone could see 5 to 7 inches of snow with local amounts of 9 or 10 along and south of West KY Parkway cannot be ruled out. Travel along the main road in the Yellow Light Zone the West KY Parkway from Paducah though Hopkins and Muhlenberg County can be very hazardous, and some rural roads may need to close. Some Blowing and Drifting of snow cannot be ruled out as winds increase.

Red Light: Includes HOP(Hopkinsville) FUL(Fulton) MUR(Murray) MAY(Mayfield) This area has a very serious situation on there hands. This will probably be the bullseye of the heaviest snow accumulations across Western Kentucky, and possibly the whole system during it's time in Eastern Arkansas, Kentucky, North Mississippi, Far North Alabama and Tennessee. The snow should start from Midnight-1am around Fulton and spread towards Hopkinsville and Elkton by daybreak. Some of the snow can be heavy, and bands of heavy snow cannot be ruled. If bands of heavier snow does occur I wouldn't be surprised to see a foot(12-13 inches occur). Many models, and trends are showing a pretty widespread chance for at least 6 inches across the whole red light zone. Sleet accumulation cannot be ruled out as well along the TN border, if a lot of sleet mixes in it may limit the great snow amounts, but could still make travel worse speaking of travel. Travel may become impossible Friday and early Saturday, and some road closures including even parts of US 68, the parkways, and maybe even I-24. So especially if you live in the Red Light Zone, and even the Yellow Light Zone do not travel unless it is an absolute emergency. Some blowing and drifting of snow cannot be ruled out either as winds increase.

Overall the worst impacts are on the Red Light Area. All of West KY should receive snow and several areas a lot of it. If you live in West KY or Mid TN or surrounding area prepare tonight because this could be a major storm.

If you do travel especially in the Red and Yellow Light Zones carry an emergency kit. More info can be found on these sites with NOAA, and the Red Cross.

http://www.redcross.org/portal/site/en/menuitem.1a019a978f421296e81ec89e43181aa0/?vgnextoid=9967c126fc9bf110VgnVCM10000089f0870aRCRD

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/

Just be smart, and follow the safety rules and we can make it though this intense winter event safely. At least it won't be as bad from a power outage standpoint as Ice Storm 2009 or the 2008 Storms. Some areas may experience some power outage issues due to heavy snow though, but if you lose it the power should be on within 36 hours.

Green Light: 3-5 locally 6
Yellow Light: 5-7 locally 9
Red Light: 6-10 locally 12-13

Winter Storm Warning text

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

...WINTER STORM REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY AND
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO
GREENVILLE KENTUCKY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THAT LINE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION WILL BE ALONG
AND JUST NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS STATE LINES. THE SNOW
COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS AT
THE ONSET TONIGHT.

ILZ088>094-KYZ001>013-016-017-021-022-MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114-
281700-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0002.100129T0000Z-100130T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0002.100129T0600Z-100130T0600Z/
UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-
HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-
CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-
BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...
ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
300 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
 EVENING...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST
 INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO
 FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING.

* 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
 MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY. CLOSER TO THE
 ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE STATE LINES BORDERING KENTUCKY AND
 MISSOURI... AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH 8 INCHES. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN
 WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI
 TO HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY THIS EVENING.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND COULD
 REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY MAY
 BE POOR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
 THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE AS WELL...FOR THOSE
 WITH TRAVEL PLANS THAT EXTEND BEYOND THE LOCAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

Winter WX advisory for NW KY text

ILZ080>087-INZ085>088-KYZ014-018-019-MOZ076-281700-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WW.Y.0002.100129T0600Z-100130T0600Z/
PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-
GALLATIN-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-UNION KY-HENDERSON-
DAVIESS-PERRY MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...
MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...
SHAWNEETOWN...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...
MORGANFIELD...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...PERRYVILLE
300 AM CST THU JAN 28 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS
 EVENING...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA
 AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
 AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING.

* 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
 MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY...AND SOUTH OF A
 LINE FROM PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS TO ROCKPORT INDIANA.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TONIGHT AND COULD
 REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY MAY
 BE POOR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
 THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE AS WELL...FOR THOSE
 WITH TRAVEL PLANS THAT EXTEND BEYOND THE LOCAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

JAP

The Master plan for a nice storm

Timing of the onset of Precipitation:
Along and West of US 45: 1am-3:30am Friday
The Lakes area: 2am-4am
East of the Lakes and south of US 60: 3:30-6am
East of the lakes and north of US 60: 4:30-6:30am

NWS Paducah map

This is from the NWS of Paducah. 2 to 3 in NW KY and upwards to 6 plus near the TN border. From the NWS of Paducah.

Call Map and Jan 27th overlook

Click to enlarge the map.

Winter Storm Watch Time

The NWS of Paducah has issued a Winter Storm Watch for most of West KY except for Union, Henderson, and Daviess. For Sig. Snow acculamtion, but some sleet cannot be ruled out in the Hopkinsville and Murray KY areas.

This is the Watch Text

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF ILLINOIS AND PORTIONS OF WEST KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
BY THURSDAY EVENING...INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MARBLE HILL MISSOURI TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY AND PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE KENTUCKY / TENNESSEE
AND ARKANSAS / MISSOURI STATE LINES. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AS
WELL.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM...
HOW FAR NORTH OF THE STORM MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT...AND HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL ACCUMULATE. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...
MEDIA OUTLETS...SCHOOL SYSTEMS...AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


ILZ088>094-KYZ001>013-015>017-020>022-MOZ086-087-100-107>112-114-
270430-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0002.100129T0000Z-100130T0000Z/
UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-
HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-
CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-
MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...
ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...
CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...
BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...
ELKTON...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...
DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID
225 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS AND MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY.

* SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY
 THURSDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
 ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL
 PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO
 EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ALONG A LINE FROM MARBLE HILL
 MISSOURI TO GREENVILLE KENTUCKY. CLOSER TO THE ARKANSAS AND
 TENNESSEE STATE LINES WITH KENTUCKY AND MISSOURI...AMOUNTS MAY
 EXCEED 6 INCHES. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW...MAINLY
 ALONG A LINE FROM POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO HOPKINSVLLLE KENTUCKY.

* TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
 COULD REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. VISIBILITY
 MAY BE POOR WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
 20S. SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE WATCH AREA THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
 INCLUDE INTERSTATES 24...57 AND 55...THE WEST KENTUCKY AND
 PURCHASE PARKWAYS...US 45 HIGHWAY...AND US HIGHWAYS 60 AND 67.
 THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN
 MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE AS WELL...FOR THOSE
 WITH TRAVEL PLANS THAT EXTEND BEYOND THE LOCAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NOLES

---

1 year ago. The master of disaster

Statewide Ice Map from NWS Louisville

The Great Ice Storm of Jan. 2009 occurred a year from today.


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=21421&source=0
^^ NWS PAH summary^^
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jan_2009_ice_and_snow
^^ NWS Louisville Summary^^

It started with a cool Monday, and at the end of the day power-lines started to snap.

Rounds and rounds of freezing rain occurred from the night of the 26th until the morning of the 28th. Finally Snow and Sleet mixed in on the 28th. By the end up to 1-2 inches of ice accumulation occurred with the worst from Paducah and Mayfield east towards Benton, Princeton, and Madisonville and into Muhlenberg, Mclean, and over to Ohio County. Most of West KY received at least a half inch of ice, but rain spared southern parts of Todd, and Christian County from the worst. Also 1 to 4 inches of snow did occur on the 28th on top of the ice further hampering the cleanup.

The cleanup lasted well into the summer, and some people especially in more rural areas didn't receive power till a month or two later. All and all up to 14 fatalities occurred directly or indirectly either from people being stuck in the cold, or improper generator usage, or crewmen trying working on the power.

Jan 26th overview

Jan 26th overview. Click to enlarge map.

Jan 25th threat assessment

Jan 24th overview

Today's Overview

T-Storm watch number 7

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0007.html

T-storm watch for Southeast Counties like Muhlenberg, Christian, Trigg, and Todd counties. large hail is possible.

Tornado Watch number 6

Tornado Watch Number 6 is up for Far SW KY and West Mid TN till 5PM. Large Hail is the main threat, but isolated spin ups cannot be ruled out

Murray, Mayfield, Fulton, and Hickman KY are inculded.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0006.html

A little bit about a few storms tommorow.

A brief overlap of my thoughts:
- Locally Heavy Rain (some flooding in parts of West Mid and South Mid TN possible) Probably main threat for areas involved.
- Not too concerned with severe weather. Slight Risk of Severe wx exists along and south of US 68. Some elevated storms may form as shear increases, with only weak CAPE 300-600 k/jg, and weak moisture return with only mid 50's for dewpoints. This storms could form some hail and maybe a brief funnel/tornado spinup in Mid TN cannot be totally ruled out. Timing is unknown, probably afternoon and evening.
- Stays warmer than average temps till Sunday when a cold front comes and brings average to slightly below average temperatures.

Happy Martin Luther King Junior Day.

Instead of giving a speech, or what I think I will give an important quote from Dr. King himself that sums it all up.

"The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy." - Dr. Martin Luther King JR.

Grade the Winter.

So for West KY or for your area so far at midterm how is your winter.

Something to look at:
- How much snow/ice your area received
- How cold it has been
- The effect of travel and activities this winter
- How much it makes you can compare great winters (like the late 70's and 93-94)

There is a survey you can use to left side of the page.
If you want to give it a specfic grade
A: 90-100
B: 80-89
C: 70-79
D: 60-69
F: 59 and below

have till the 22nd to cast the vote on the survey.

The cold is fading

While not warm after tomorrow the cold snap will come to an end. Temperature gradually warm to average values at the end of this week.

There are signal of well above average temperatures in the long range. This is in the long range, but the model are starting to key on this solution we will need to watch this.

The Cold is in town

Cold Wind Chills are next

Be Careful everyone Wind Chill Advisories are in effect for West and Middle TN with below zero windchills today, and possibility in the -5 to -10 range Friday Night early Saturday. A slight warm up is coming next up next week.

As far as snow up to an half inch or an inch is possible though noon or 1pm before ending. Total accumulations should be around 3/4 of an inch along the KY/TN border with 2 to 2 and half inches in the Henderson/Owensboro area.

Early Morning Snow

Snow is falling across West KY moving across Mid TN. Not a lot of snow will accumulate. 1 to 3 across most of West KY, but blowing snow, low wind chills, and coldness is a big time threat.

Fianl Call Map and final thoughts before the event

Pros of an event:
- Higher Snow Ratios around 15:1 maybe 18:1 in West KY.
- The radar is looking good even though some of that is virga though.
- No Temperature issues (What falls sticks, and even half inch amounts will get you out of school)
- Could have a chance of banding for locally heavier amounts

Cons of an event:
- Limited Gulf Supply is likely(we need this to get more involved)
- It is a short lived event maybe only 5 to 7 hours of snow involved
- KY and TN may be in the dreaded man in the middle situation. Too far north from the southern low, and too far from the northern ULL.
- Dryslotting is a possibility.

I also listed places with red dots. Like JAK for Jackson, HOP for Hopkinsville, and so on.

Winds that pierce

Some Updates

- 1 to 3 south of the West KY Parkway. 2 to 4 north of the West KY Parkway.
- Blowing and drifting of the snow is likely even with only minor amounts this can be a major travel issue. Wind gusts up to 25-30MPH possible.
- Wind Chills start to drop Thursday Afternoon at the end of the heavier snow to around below zero.
- A moisture starved clipper system may bring an additional dusting to an inch across parts of West KY and Mid TN later Friday.

The Morning Update

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in the effect for a winter storm that is expected to strike from wee morning hours of Thursday into the afternoon. Blowing snow could remain a threat even into Thursday Night. So far expect 2 to 3 in the advisory area, and 3 to 4 in the warning area with locally more if any higher bands show up.

West KY map of the Jan 7th event

The Pink is 2 to 3. Gray is 3 to 4. The models are having issues with precipitation. Still confident in some snow, and extreme cold. How much is still up in the air 24 to 36 hours away though.

First Decade, First Month, and Seventh Day

WINTER STORM THOUGHTS

Impacts

• 3 to 5 inches of snow is possible across all of Western Kentucky. 2 to 4 with local amounts around 5 is possible across Middle Tennessee as well. This will be more of a dry and powdery snow as snow ratios will hang around the 14:1-18:1 range with even isolated 20:1 ratios can't be ruled out.
  
• Blowing and drifting of snow especially during the day Thursday and into the night will be an issue.
  
• The cold ground temperatures due to being days without getting above freezing will allow more hazardous travel and road conditions
• The main roads even will have problems because of the cold ground temperatures. Some Secondary roads may have near impossible travel conditions in the height of this even.
• Major Cold Wave is expected afterwards starting later Thursday and though the weekend. Lows below zero and windchills in the -5 to -15 range cannot be ruled out. This could be a very life threatening, and dangerous event so be ready for it.
  

Timing

• I posted a map at the top of the page. This map is for when most of the snow will fall from the sky this could be just the first part of the storm.
• Most of the snowfall and accumulation will occur during the morning rush hour, the morning rush hour will be your worst nightmare moderate to heavy snow showers could be an issue.
• The second part the blowing of drifting of the snow is expected starting mostly after most of the snow has fallen on late Thursday Afternoon into very early Friday Morning. This could hamper the travel as winds increase to 15 to 25MPH with gusts near 30 to 35MPH. Not quite blizzard conditions, but at some moments it could be near blizzard at brief intervals later Thursday.
• The cold could be very biting, and a high impact event. Highs barely in the Teen's for Friday and Saturday, with lows near or even below zero is possible. Wind Chills could be in the -5 to -15F range as well.

The Power Outage threat is low. The snow isn't wet, and is more of a dry snow. Some more brief power outage threats are possible with the cold because of the overuse of the heating systems overtaxing the transformers.

The Second Call map

My only concerns are what will the snow ratios be. Will they be 15:1, 20:1, 22:1 anyway this looks to be a dry powder of a snow, and not the wetter snows we usually see. Also a little concerns about the mini dry slot showing up in models in SW TN.
Overall the confidence of the models, and the trends for more snow are ...encouraging. Temperatures will not be a problem either with this cold air-mass in control.

I am biting on the threat.

The First Call.

My Concerns
- Possible Dry slot on the models in West TN could effect how much snow we get.
- It could take a little bit for precip to reach the ground. The atmosphere will have to saturate.

Good things
- Models have been increasing moisture in NW Mid TN and West KY
- Higher snow ratios could make for slightly higher amounts even in marginal amounts
- ULL could enhance snow amounts in some areas.
- In areas like Crossville, Oneida, Monterey, Jamestown and the higher elevations could pick up locally more due to additional lift.

Stone-Shattering Cold

There are a few updates compared to this morning. Both dealing with the cold number one, and than the snow chances.

- It will be cold tonight. ( Wind Chill Advisories exist in Paris TN area for early tomorrow morning for sub zero wind chills) This cold will continue Tuesday Night
- There is a chance that we might not have a high temperature above freezing until Tuesday of Next Week unless we can make it above freezing this Wednesday(there is only a small chance of this).
- The models are back to showing a little more moisture after last nights 00Z Nam/Gfs wanted to be dream crusher. So watch out for an accumulating snowfall all across West KY and even into Mid TN.
- The winds pick up on Thursday towards the end of the snow event. This means that blowing and drifting of any snow that falls will cause a lot of issues Thursday and Thursday Night into Early Friday.
- With the exception of a light snow shower or flurry it will be a dry and very cold weekend.
- It could be a dangerous cold event this weekend. The forecast highs on Friday and Saturday will more than likely be under 20 with lows in the single digits, or colder depending on the snow-cover situation.

A few posts back I posted a website which has cold weather safety tips. We will need to use those tonight, Tuesday Night, and especially this upcoming weekend.

Jan 4th

This is a low confidence forecast for the winter weather event. On who gets snow and how much will depend on the H5 low. Several of the recent runs have trended north with this feature, this is a potential concern as the moisture and dynamics would go north along with it leaving most of West KY high and dry. Right now there's is still potential for a 1-3 inch event for parts of NW KY, but it is hanging by a thread 3 days out. Lets see what the 12Z GFS and Euro do with this system at least the 12Z Nam is trying to trend south.

Cold Weather Safety link

http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/pdf/cold_guide.pdf

Jan 3 outlook

Happy 2010

Happy 2010.

- Strong and long-lasting cold is coming. Not below zero cold, but very long lasting. Some areas may not go above 32 in excess of six days or even longer.