Your winter forecast the explanation.

This is a forecast for West KY and parts of West and Mid TN

MY FOUR ANALOGS PLUS ONE MORE:
1950-51(2nd)
1976-77(5th)
1989-90(3rd)
2000-01 (1st)(my main one)
Another Great one I overlooked
1985-86(4th)

The number is order in my favorite to least, but all can verify someway.

This should overall be a winter that when averaged out will be colder than normal. Looking at the following factors I will list soon I will probably be surprised to see another warm winter. Like all Ky and TN winters there will be some 60's and 70's but that is a gimme even in winters like 93-94 and 77-78, and my analog winter 50-51 there was warmth occasionally.

Factors for old man winters wicked return
1) Degree of Arctic air greater than last year a cooler winter than the past three.
2) The strong support for a cold December in analogs and in animals.
3) The animals and nature are showing signs like squirrels gathering nuts early, bees and wasps being more aggressive, more webs, earlier bird flights
4) ENSO being more neutral with some fall back la nina effects really can help the West KY and northern TN area.
5) Low count on sunspots and increase volcanic eruption ( some of that needs research but volcanoes have been linked to cooler winter)
6) The SE Ridge??? You may be wondering how well the evil SE ridge? It is a double edged sword. The SE ridge is probably gonna to be the only thing I see to ruin our winter fun, but yes it can help us to. With no Southeast Ridge all the storms go out to sea. No Snow, Ice, Rain, not even an East Coast storm. Maybe Atlantic coast and NW Florida but that is it. With a small SE ridge, not one strong enough to make a Panhandle Hook or Lakes Cutter of the GFS models Nor' Easter or APP runner. A little SE ridge occasionally can make more storms those APP runners that we saw in Dec 2004 and Mar 2008 snowstorms.

DISCUSSION.
November- Forecast (-3 to -4) is my fun temp departure.

- This is a month that an analog will be hard to find.
- 500 mb temps, and Neutral/ Weak La nina and pot. for a tanking nao. 1950, 1989, 1995, and 2000 because of the drought and 2000-01 is such a great analog will be my favorite ones this month.
This month should start off cold, than have a warm snap in the middle of it but not enough for positive averages. NAO might tank in last part of the month. CPC models have decently supported this and there is so much arctic air than when the NAO goes neutral or negative this air will really start to filter in. The excess in cold up in the Arctic makes this pot. a fun month. 3 out of my 4 analogs gave at least a dusting of snow across west KY. 1995 had a winter storm clip far west KY with 1 to 3 inches. 1950 had the Great Appalachian Storm struck on the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. The fact that we haven't had snow in west KY in Nov since 1995 or 96 and tendency of models to ignore the small stuff. November might have a surprise snow event.

December- Forecast (-5 to -6 possible top 10 cold) this is my fun departure

- This looks like a brrrrrrr month
- All my winter analogs have below normal temps. 4 out of 5 have Dec. in the top 10 of Nashvilles coldest winters.
- I'm not a pro far from it, but a warmer than average or average Dec would really suprise me.
- Analogs I like is all my 5 winters. Dec 1950, 1976, 1985, 1989, 2000 This looks to be the month in which all this arctic air comes down. The SE ridge should get overcomed and a pot. supression pattern sets up. Meaning cold but cold and mostly dry. The pot. winter storms are in any pattern change with the arctic setups. Drier than normal and way colder than normal.

January/Feb- Forecast (+1 to 2) fun departure

- This looks almost like last Jan and Feb maybe slightly warmer and a little bit drier than last years wet months.
- The SE ridge will show itself in this month. A lot of uncertainty on this month and Feb. So i will make it simple. Amount of snow with determine on where the clashing point is between the SE ridge and Arctic air lies. This will be a very important time to show off the 6th factor of reasons for it to be a wicked winter it is all Se ridge and it should be present in some form this month. Could see anything from heavy rain/flooding, heavy snow/blizzard, severe storms (particularly hail), ice could be huge somewhere in the TN/OH valley, and looks like a situation with a lot of overrunning occurring. These two months are probably gonna be the warmest, wettest, and depending on SE subtropical ridge and if cold enough maybe the snowiest. A sig. arctic event may occur that is of less power than in Dec may occur towards the end of Feb.

March- Forecast (around -1) departure
- Another arctic dumping could occur this month.
- This I think will resemble some elements of last March. With occasional flooding, and snow events. Not a lot since it is far off to say much. Could be quite a cold month. Another March snowstorm may be in order.

That is my forecast. I do think there is something out there for snow lovers to enjoy this winter.

Two reasons for big disappointment and busts-
- The drought in our area. This may limit the moisture content in some of our storms.
- The SE ridge being too strong. SE ridge can be helpful if it isn't too strong. If it is too strong than lakes cutters dominate. Jan and Feb. will probably be very warm.

Averages for Paduach and Nashville- Analogs except 85-86

PADUCAH

Means (average of high and low)
Nov. 47.9
Dec. 35.2
Jan. 32.6
Feb. 37.0
Mar. 47.6

2000-01
Nov. -3.4
Dec. -11.4 (coldest on record)
Jan. -0.6
Feb. +4.9
Mar. -4.6
Nov/Mar Average departure. -3.02

1989-90
Nov. +1.1
Dec. -8.2(top 10 coldest on record)
Jan. +11.4(2nd warmest Jan)
Feb. +9.0( one of the warmest Feb ever)
Mar. +3.4
Nov/Mar Average departure. +3.34

1976-77
Nov. -7.9( coldest Nov)
Dec. -1.2
Jan. -12.6(the coldest month ever)
Feb. -1.0
Mar. +5.4
Nov/Mar Average departure. -3.46

NASHVILLE

Means
Nov. 50.0
Dec. 40.5
Jan. 36.2
Feb. 40.4
Mar. 50.2

2000-01
Nov. -2.0
Dec. -9.7(4th coldest Dec ever)
Jan. -0.8
Feb. +4.3
Mar. -4.9
Nov-Mar departure of average. -2.62

1989-90
Nov. +1.2
Dec. -11.0 (coldest Dec ever)
Jan. +9.6 (11th warmest Jan ever)
Feb. +9.5 (5th warmest Feb ever)
Mar. +3.4
Nov-Mar departure of average. +2.54

1976-77
Nov. -9.1(coldest November ever)
Dec. -3.9
Jan. -11.7(coldest month ever)
Feb. +0.2
Mar. +3.7
Nov-Mar departure of average. -4.16

1950-51
Nov. -7.5(3rd coldest Nov ever)
Dec. -6.1(9th coldest Dec ever)
Jan. +4.0
Feb. +1.3
Mar. -0.9
Nov-Mar departure of average. -1.84

My predicted Nashville Nov-Mar departure. -0.9 (near average)
My predicted Paduach Nov- Mar departure. -1.8 (below average)


Snowfall
Paduach
50-51- N/A but probably above average
76-77- 12 inches (+1.8 above average)
85-86- 10.9 inches (+0.7 above average)
89-90- 3.5 inches (-6.7 below average)
00-01- 8.5 inches (-1.7 below average)

Nashville
50-51- 33.5 inches (+24.4 above average)
76-77- 21.5 inches (+ 12.4 above average)
85-86- 3.0 inches (-6.1 below average)
89-90- 0.8 inches (-8.3 below average)
00-01- 4.1 inches (-5.0 below average)

My predicted snowfall amounts
Paducah KY- ( Around 15 to 17 inches) (above average)
Nashville TN- (Around 9 inches) (near average)
Hopkinsville KY- (Around 11 inches) (near average to slightly above average)
Owensboro KY- (Around 18 to 21 inches) (above average)
Memphis TN- (Around 4 to 5 inches) (average)
Jamestown/Monterey TN- (Around 24 to 27 inches) (above average)

- That is all folks hope you like it. I will see how good and bad I did.
Refer to maps for more info.

Comments are appreciated and read.