Halloween HAHAHA

The 400th post on West Ky blogspot

Once about the land of Halloween there was yes SNOW.

Snow fell in 1925, 1957, and most notable 1993.

On Oct 29th/30th on both 1925 and 1993 a rare storm dropped some good snow on KY and TN. Both storms a lot isn't known about them. Trick and treaters had to get their treats in 1 to 6 inches of snow. Trick and Treating was canceled in towns and early snowfall records set.

YES SNOW ON HALLOWEEN HAPPENED IT WONT THIS TIME.

But BEWARE in the within the next 100 years or so the SNOW MONSTER may return.

In 1993 The children in parts of West KY and surrounding areas had something else to dodge except ghouls, goblins, ghosts, monsters, and other scary things. Something that is much whiter.

A evil creature was crawling up the eastern US. He brought cold, rain, and snow to the children of West KY. And he brought tornadoes to the Albany GA area. He scared traffic causing them to drive like they were mad. He made jaws drop of all the people in the area that though of Halloween being in the 60's and 70's for temps not the 30's. All around people all over were wondering even though it was Halloween how an creature which only comes around in Dec-Mar come around this early.

Halloween is unexplainable guys.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN

And HAPPY 400 posts on West KY blogspot.

I posted 400, 400, 400

400 on Halloween day yay !!!

Halloween forecast

Not too much to say. Warm and dry no rain or anything.

Expect around room temperature to occur this Halloween.

confidence level of Oct 29th

Confidence Level map of Oct 28th

Cold temps start today. With a widespread end of growing season tonight.

Freeze Warning text for West KY tonight

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY125 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008ILZ083-086-087-089>091-093-094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ112-114-280300-/O.UPG.KPAH.FZ.A.0002.081028T0600Z-081028T1400Z//O.EXA.KPAH.FZ.W.0002.081028T0600Z-081028T1400Z//O.CON.KPAH.FZ.A.0003.081029T0600Z-081029T1400Z/WHITE-SALINE-GALLATIN-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARMI...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID125 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2008...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY......FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FREEZEWARNING EFFECTIVE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDTTUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES AN UPGRADE OF THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FREEZE WATCHFOR TONIGHT. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROMLATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURSLATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILLEXPERIENCE LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 29 AND 32 DEGREES. APERSISTENT NORTHWEST BREEZE SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM FORMING IN ALLBUT THE MOST SHELTERED LOCATIONS.ANOTHER FREEZE OR FROST EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAYNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURESEXPECTED...FROST COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY MORNING...SINCE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHED.A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT ORHIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHERSENSITIVE VEGETATION.A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.$$

Confidence Level Map of OCt 26th

A freeze watch is in effect. Near freezing temps expected tonight, but if not tonight a much better chance of freeze tues night/wed night. Could be a hard freeze.

Oct 26th 2008

Today a few gusty winds of 25 to 30MPH are possible. This may knock over loose tree limbs that were loose by the IKE wind event.
A freeze watch is possible. Growing season is likely to end Monday Night and Tuesday Morning with another day of freezing Tuesday Night/ Wednesday Morning.

A West KY blogspot Post

A pot. for a widespread freeze is increasing.

Also there is the possibility for gusts of 20 to 40MPH.

This is possible Sunday and again Monday.

Freezing temps are poss Sun and Mon but due to pretty decent winds and temps only around freezing for a very short term a bad freeze isn't expected

Calm conditions and temps in the 27-30 for a few hours could lead to a widespread and possibility a hard freeze Tuesday Night which sound end growing season.

Confidence Level map of Oct 25th

Nice but kinda cool fall day today. Our first freeze in west ky is possible on Monday. With another pot. freeze on Tuesday Night if the Monday Night event doesn't work.

Thanks to Fred Gossage and NWS BHAM

We on West KY blogspot have a confidence level map very close to the NWS B-Ham map. Since some local dense fog, and a cold shot with our possible first freeze is coming up a good time to use this map. Thanks to Fred Gossage and NWS BHAM for this.

OCT 24th West KY Confidence Level Map
Day 1- is tonight
Day 2 is tomorrow. all the way to Day 5 Tuesday.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR WEST KY (thanks to NWS B-HAM)
1 is lowest
5 is highest

Rain ends by today

The low pressure system responsible for today's cold rain event moves to the northeast. In it's wake brings cooler temps. A possible freeze event is in the midst early next week more on that later.

Cold Fall now, Warm fall before

Cold Rain starting later today though Saturday is on track. Friday and tonight will be the worst as the cold rain really sets in.

Temps will not get out of the low to mid 50's Friday and for several days highs may only be in the 50's after this weekend including this weekend. As we go into fall conditions even early winter conditions as lows may dip near or just below freezing and our first freeze may be possible.

First Cold Rain event coming.

A low pressure called a " cut off low " is expected to form. This means it is a low that is detached from the jet stream. This means that nothing not a front or wind is going to move it too far meaning it will hang around and give us some decent rain chances. With colder air circling to the NW and cloudcover around one of our first cold rain events is coming. That means starting early Thursday, Friday, and even Saturday our eastern areas cloud and maybe a few showers first part of Sunday.

Temps will hold into the 50's for highs for poss all 3 days or at least one of them.

Today is 1 yr anniversery of OCt 18th. Record Tornado Event

- 15 tornadoes were reported across West KY
- Counties impacted were Daviess, McLean, Webster, Christian, Trigg, Hopkins, Caldwell, Calloway counties
- Towns impacted include Dawson Springs, Nortonville, Sebree, Owensboro, St Joesph, Dixon, Pennyrile Forest area.
- This set records for the strongest tornado and greatest number of tornadoes not only in October, but is the most during any fall outbreak event ever. All the way back to 1800's records.
- Over 15 million dollars of damage was done.
- 1 tornado was reported in Stewart County TN in LBL area
- The cluster of supercells became a serial derecho across Middle TN and eastern parts of West KY causing widespread 60-80MPH wind gusts.
- It was the first time ever a MDT risk was issued for any month on a day 3 outlook for West KY. After this the only time a day 3 MDT risk was for the April 10th 2008 event that went bust.
- Damage was about around 15 to 20 million across West KY 11 million coming from the EF-3 that took a direct hit though downtown Owensboro KY.
- A wind event the morning before around 4am caused two injuries in Daviess County KY.

Sad News in Trigg County

A fire has taken the lives of 3 people. A family in Roaring springs in Se Trigg County. The crime on one victim has been considered a homicide. More details later.

From Kentucky New Era:
"Kevin Dunlap, 35, was charged at 1:30 p.m. Saturday with three counts of capital murder and one count of attempted murder, said Trooper Dean Patterson, a KSP spokesman."

Also he faces other charges. Including Arson and more evidence is supporting him as the subject to this crime.

More details later.

RIP
Kayla Williams, 17
Kortney Frensley, 14
Ethan Frensley, 5

And pray 36-year-old Kristi Frensley is ok it will be extremely hard for her to deal with this big loss. She is recovering from her injuries in this.

http://www.kentuckynewera.com/articles/2008/10/18/news/free/doc48f8d7b4b147d615261029.txt
http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/default.aspx
http://www.newschannel5.com/
http://www.wsmv.com/index.html

Smith's tree removal

Smith's Tree Removal and Gutter Cleaning 315-8844 or wa986@bellsouth on ur blogspot

Any memories of Oct 18th

Feel free to share any feelings and experiences on Oct 18th 2007 on here.

1 Year AGO OCt. 18th 2007 Tornado Outbreak

From mine MY Space Blog

Some Past Tornado numbers for West Ky. ( for lack of onfusion west ky is the counties in ky ocvered by nws paduach from Muhlenburg, Todd, Mclean, Daviess west.

May 4th 2003- 11

May 6th 2003- 10

Great Memorial Day Weekend outbreak- 6

November 15th 2002- 6

October 18th Act I 2004- 1

September 22-23rd 2006- 5

October 18th Act II - 15

THE EF SCALE IS AS FOLLOWS:

EF0- 65 TO 85MPH

EF1- 85 TO 109MPH

EF2- 110-137MPH

EF3- 138-167MPH

EF4- 168-199MPH

EF5- 200MPH+

On October 17th atmospheric conditions appeared ripe for a nasty night and a nasty day on October 18th. A powerful low at it;s deepest point it was around 980mb was moving from Nebraska to Iowa. A strong cold front with powerful forcing was extending all the way down to the gulf coast. Following the actual cold front an shortwave came though on the night of the 17th and early morning hours of the 18th.

On October 18th the day 1 outlook but all of west ky and later on inculded all of middle Tenneesee in a Moderate Risk of severe weather in every outlook. Henderosn/Owensburo areas were in the Moderate Risk as early as the Day 3 outlook this may be one of the first times ever that Western Ky was included in a Moderate Risk on Day 3.

The shear was amazing form the storng low in Iowa. Instablity was intially a problem. As the day went on a dry slot with a cap persisted across Western Ky from 9am till it started to break around 3 and by 3:45pm the cap was gone and supercells started to form. Also instablity was a lot high than expected with CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 j/kg. With this setup I knew that even any storm tap into the shear will rotate and have very good torando potenial.

This resulted in supercells later forming into a serial Derecho or a squall line with supercells that is pareall to the mean wind. This supercell to line connection resembles the Ocotber 24th 2001 severe weather event very closely. Except there are a few differences there was a little more intense forcing on 10/24/01 but on 10/18/07 there was more instablity to make up for lack of forcing. The line of supercells which was broken across west ky formed a complete line and charged for Middle Tenneesee knocking out power across Metro Nashville and damgaing many trees and even a few buildings.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK: A powerful low 980 traveled across Iowa. Tornados spawned from Michigan to even Penascola FLorida got hit hard. The day before Paris MO suffered 2 deaths from a night torando that hit in the area. Nationally this is the biggest tornado outbreak in Ocotber since October 24th 2001. On October 24th 2001 an almost silmar situation featured about 500 reports of severe weather and tornadoes from Michigan to Alabama. Including a torando in Manchester Tenneesee.

LOCAL OUTLOOK ( WESTERN KENTUCKY AND PARTS OF TENNEESEE) Locally a historic tornado outbreak occured in Western Kentucky. In the 22 counties in western kentucky 11 tornadoes occured. This amount is the most since May 4th 2003 when 11 tornadoes also occured plus more on the overnight hours of May 4th and 5th in Middle Tenneesee making it the 8th largest torando outbreak in Middle Tenneesee. This looking back at records will not be the most torandoes to ever occur at Ocotber in west ky or the biggest October Tornado outbreak but the biggest fall outbreak ever for the 22 counties in West Kentucky. But since the ansty November 2005 tornado outbreaks that hit west ky the whole area was prepared for a fall outbreak so therefore that was one of the facotrs that led to no deaths being recorded in Western Kentucky even though an EF3 hit Owensburo Ky. The EF3 came from a powerful supercell with a hisotry of tornadoes in Webster County including Dixon and Sebree. Dixon KY also got hit in the Sept 22nd-23rd 2006 Tornado Outbreak more about that one on an earlier blog. Daviess County got 4 torando paths in thier county alone. One of my radar pics on my fall pics section has the indivual supercell involved with the ef-1 and ef-2 around 6pm. The Storm Mode with supercells at first. The supercells formed in Livingston and Crittenden County and one formed in Daviess COunty. At first even tohugh the storms spawned tornado warnings they didnt produce torandoes at least not at the time. At 6pm a powerful supercell with some reports of a funnel cloud/torando in Clay Ky in webster county moved into Daviess County which two of the tornadoes occured east of Owensburo. Then a line of storms and supercells formed again in far western ky. One quick supercell dropped a brief tornado in west central Graves County. Then a line eventually becoming a SERIAL DERECHO formed decorated with supercells esp in Western KY. The powerful line chargerd the lakes cancelled a regional soccer tournament and destroyed a house. Then the biggest part of the outbreak happened supercells ythat were at the edge of line from near Murray to Providence Ky and moved northeast strengthed a produced tornadoes. Trigg County suffered two tornadoes one Ef-1 and one EF-2 this heavily damaged parts of the Lakes area and the Lake Barkley State Park. And rural areas of southeastern Trigg County. A powerful supercell went from Southerneastern Caldwell into Northwestern Chrisitan near Dawson Spring and caused 1 injury to a person in a moblie home which closed state road 109. Also at the time one of theo ther supercells moved from Dixon to and tohugh downtown Owensburo producing an Ef2 in Webster County, Ef2 damage in Mclean Conty. 8 injuries occured in Owensburo proper and over a million dollars esp to a church which was destroyed and several homes in Downtown Owensburo the Tornado produced 155mph winds. After the supercells the line caught up to most of the supercells in west/centrla Ky and Middle Tenneesee but there was some rotation in the Derecho including additional torandoes in Central Kentucky. Also widespread damgaing winds including 73mph wind gust in Nashville Metro and widespread reprots of trees down some on homes causing damage. Also scattered power outages occured in Middle Tenneesee.

COMPARING 2 OCOTBER OUTBREAKS

OCTOBER 24TH 2001

* A High risk Day

* All Straight Line WInd Damage in West KY

* Several Injuries in West KY

* Contained a powerful low pressure system in Southern Wisconsion

* Very Strong Forcing involved

* Temps in the upper 70's to around 80

* CAPE VALUES 1000j/kg to 1500j/kg

* Very strong shear

* Rain the day and night before also thoughout the day before the squall line

* Features a Serial Derecho across Kentucky and Tenneesee

OCTOBER 18th 2007

* A Moderate Risk Day

* Powerful Low in Iowa

* Strong Forcing

* Strong Shear

* Cape Values from 1750 to 2000 j/kg

* Rain the day before Temps in the low to Mid 80's

* Features a Serial Derecho across Kentucky and Tenneesee

* The biggest Fall Tornado outbreak in west Ky as far as number of torandoes

* Did cause several injuries

TAKE HOME LESSONS FOR OCTOBER 18th 2007

* Never Underestimate severe potenial with there is amazing wind shear present.

* Strong Shear plus 1500j/kg + CAPE VALUES in the Fall or Winter Time screams potenial for a fall severe weather and torando outbreak.

* Discrete Supercells can and well happen in Fall outbreaks if condtions are right. In some cases storm mode in a fall outbreak is not all that different form a spring outbreak even though there are some differences.

* If there is a planned event like a soccer tourment on a MODERATE or HIGH risk day they sohuld postpone it to another date. You should never try a risk by putting people away from family, friends and shelter for an event the could require the following to save lives.

* We got smarter about Fall Severe Weather Awareness as a whole in the community and across West KY. We know that torandoes and damging winds aren;t just spring things and that they can occur anytime 24/7 and 365 and 1/4 days a year. Emergancy Mangement spotters and everyone else including citizens did an amazinn job during this event to save lives and help clean up the damage the storms left.

Your winter forecast the explanation.

This is a forecast for West KY and parts of West and Mid TN

MY FOUR ANALOGS PLUS ONE MORE:
1950-51(2nd)
1976-77(5th)
1989-90(3rd)
2000-01 (1st)(my main one)
Another Great one I overlooked
1985-86(4th)

The number is order in my favorite to least, but all can verify someway.

This should overall be a winter that when averaged out will be colder than normal. Looking at the following factors I will list soon I will probably be surprised to see another warm winter. Like all Ky and TN winters there will be some 60's and 70's but that is a gimme even in winters like 93-94 and 77-78, and my analog winter 50-51 there was warmth occasionally.

Factors for old man winters wicked return
1) Degree of Arctic air greater than last year a cooler winter than the past three.
2) The strong support for a cold December in analogs and in animals.
3) The animals and nature are showing signs like squirrels gathering nuts early, bees and wasps being more aggressive, more webs, earlier bird flights
4) ENSO being more neutral with some fall back la nina effects really can help the West KY and northern TN area.
5) Low count on sunspots and increase volcanic eruption ( some of that needs research but volcanoes have been linked to cooler winter)
6) The SE Ridge??? You may be wondering how well the evil SE ridge? It is a double edged sword. The SE ridge is probably gonna to be the only thing I see to ruin our winter fun, but yes it can help us to. With no Southeast Ridge all the storms go out to sea. No Snow, Ice, Rain, not even an East Coast storm. Maybe Atlantic coast and NW Florida but that is it. With a small SE ridge, not one strong enough to make a Panhandle Hook or Lakes Cutter of the GFS models Nor' Easter or APP runner. A little SE ridge occasionally can make more storms those APP runners that we saw in Dec 2004 and Mar 2008 snowstorms.

DISCUSSION.
November- Forecast (-3 to -4) is my fun temp departure.

- This is a month that an analog will be hard to find.
- 500 mb temps, and Neutral/ Weak La nina and pot. for a tanking nao. 1950, 1989, 1995, and 2000 because of the drought and 2000-01 is such a great analog will be my favorite ones this month.
This month should start off cold, than have a warm snap in the middle of it but not enough for positive averages. NAO might tank in last part of the month. CPC models have decently supported this and there is so much arctic air than when the NAO goes neutral or negative this air will really start to filter in. The excess in cold up in the Arctic makes this pot. a fun month. 3 out of my 4 analogs gave at least a dusting of snow across west KY. 1995 had a winter storm clip far west KY with 1 to 3 inches. 1950 had the Great Appalachian Storm struck on the Friday and Saturday after Thanksgiving. The fact that we haven't had snow in west KY in Nov since 1995 or 96 and tendency of models to ignore the small stuff. November might have a surprise snow event.

December- Forecast (-5 to -6 possible top 10 cold) this is my fun departure

- This looks like a brrrrrrr month
- All my winter analogs have below normal temps. 4 out of 5 have Dec. in the top 10 of Nashvilles coldest winters.
- I'm not a pro far from it, but a warmer than average or average Dec would really suprise me.
- Analogs I like is all my 5 winters. Dec 1950, 1976, 1985, 1989, 2000 This looks to be the month in which all this arctic air comes down. The SE ridge should get overcomed and a pot. supression pattern sets up. Meaning cold but cold and mostly dry. The pot. winter storms are in any pattern change with the arctic setups. Drier than normal and way colder than normal.

January/Feb- Forecast (+1 to 2) fun departure

- This looks almost like last Jan and Feb maybe slightly warmer and a little bit drier than last years wet months.
- The SE ridge will show itself in this month. A lot of uncertainty on this month and Feb. So i will make it simple. Amount of snow with determine on where the clashing point is between the SE ridge and Arctic air lies. This will be a very important time to show off the 6th factor of reasons for it to be a wicked winter it is all Se ridge and it should be present in some form this month. Could see anything from heavy rain/flooding, heavy snow/blizzard, severe storms (particularly hail), ice could be huge somewhere in the TN/OH valley, and looks like a situation with a lot of overrunning occurring. These two months are probably gonna be the warmest, wettest, and depending on SE subtropical ridge and if cold enough maybe the snowiest. A sig. arctic event may occur that is of less power than in Dec may occur towards the end of Feb.

March- Forecast (around -1) departure
- Another arctic dumping could occur this month.
- This I think will resemble some elements of last March. With occasional flooding, and snow events. Not a lot since it is far off to say much. Could be quite a cold month. Another March snowstorm may be in order.

That is my forecast. I do think there is something out there for snow lovers to enjoy this winter.

Two reasons for big disappointment and busts-
- The drought in our area. This may limit the moisture content in some of our storms.
- The SE ridge being too strong. SE ridge can be helpful if it isn't too strong. If it is too strong than lakes cutters dominate. Jan and Feb. will probably be very warm.

Averages for Paduach and Nashville- Analogs except 85-86

PADUCAH

Means (average of high and low)
Nov. 47.9
Dec. 35.2
Jan. 32.6
Feb. 37.0
Mar. 47.6

2000-01
Nov. -3.4
Dec. -11.4 (coldest on record)
Jan. -0.6
Feb. +4.9
Mar. -4.6
Nov/Mar Average departure. -3.02

1989-90
Nov. +1.1
Dec. -8.2(top 10 coldest on record)
Jan. +11.4(2nd warmest Jan)
Feb. +9.0( one of the warmest Feb ever)
Mar. +3.4
Nov/Mar Average departure. +3.34

1976-77
Nov. -7.9( coldest Nov)
Dec. -1.2
Jan. -12.6(the coldest month ever)
Feb. -1.0
Mar. +5.4
Nov/Mar Average departure. -3.46

NASHVILLE

Means
Nov. 50.0
Dec. 40.5
Jan. 36.2
Feb. 40.4
Mar. 50.2

2000-01
Nov. -2.0
Dec. -9.7(4th coldest Dec ever)
Jan. -0.8
Feb. +4.3
Mar. -4.9
Nov-Mar departure of average. -2.62

1989-90
Nov. +1.2
Dec. -11.0 (coldest Dec ever)
Jan. +9.6 (11th warmest Jan ever)
Feb. +9.5 (5th warmest Feb ever)
Mar. +3.4
Nov-Mar departure of average. +2.54

1976-77
Nov. -9.1(coldest November ever)
Dec. -3.9
Jan. -11.7(coldest month ever)
Feb. +0.2
Mar. +3.7
Nov-Mar departure of average. -4.16

1950-51
Nov. -7.5(3rd coldest Nov ever)
Dec. -6.1(9th coldest Dec ever)
Jan. +4.0
Feb. +1.3
Mar. -0.9
Nov-Mar departure of average. -1.84

My predicted Nashville Nov-Mar departure. -0.9 (near average)
My predicted Paduach Nov- Mar departure. -1.8 (below average)


Snowfall
Paduach
50-51- N/A but probably above average
76-77- 12 inches (+1.8 above average)
85-86- 10.9 inches (+0.7 above average)
89-90- 3.5 inches (-6.7 below average)
00-01- 8.5 inches (-1.7 below average)

Nashville
50-51- 33.5 inches (+24.4 above average)
76-77- 21.5 inches (+ 12.4 above average)
85-86- 3.0 inches (-6.1 below average)
89-90- 0.8 inches (-8.3 below average)
00-01- 4.1 inches (-5.0 below average)

My predicted snowfall amounts
Paducah KY- ( Around 15 to 17 inches) (above average)
Nashville TN- (Around 9 inches) (near average)
Hopkinsville KY- (Around 11 inches) (near average to slightly above average)
Owensboro KY- (Around 18 to 21 inches) (above average)
Memphis TN- (Around 4 to 5 inches) (average)
Jamestown/Monterey TN- (Around 24 to 27 inches) (above average)

- That is all folks hope you like it. I will see how good and bad I did.
Refer to maps for more info.

Comments are appreciated and read.

Warm Ham Fest today

Temps will be in the mid 80's and dry for the Ham Fest in Cadiz KY

MAPS use discussion part II

MAPS for my Winter 08-09 outlook part I

This forecast has moderate to somewhat low confidence. Due to the SE Ridge. all the cold air in the Arctic, and the ENSO being neutral/weak la nina and not a strong ENSO signal

MAP MEANINGS

TEMP
Below Average- Temp will average at least 1 degree below the mean for the Nov- March period.
Average- Temp will average within 1 degree above or below the mean for the Nov-March period.
Above Average- Temp will average at least 1 degree above the mean for the Nov-March period.

SNOW
Below Average- Snow will average at least 2 inches below normal
Average- Snow will be within the average no more or less than 2 inches from the average
Above Average- Snow will average at least 2 inches above the normal

SO what is Average here is example for Nashville and Paduach. For temps

PADUCAH
Nov. 47.9
Dec. 35.2
Jan. 32.6
Feb. 37.0
Mar. 47.6

NASHVILLE
Means
Nov. 50.0
Dec. 40.5
Jan. 36.2
Feb. 40.4
Mar. 50.2

SNOW AVERAGES ( in inches)
Nashville TN- 9.1
Paducah KY- 10.2
Hopkinsville KY- 9.2
Owensboro KY- 11.9
Evansville IN- 14.2

MY FAV ANALOGS 1950-51, 1976-77, 1989-90, 2000-01

1 to 3 inches

We all got 1 to 3 inches of rain and we needed it for our drought.

The Passing Of WCM Jerry Orchanian

RIP and hope for peace for family, friends, and NWS. He helped the NWS Nashville issue valuable warnings for years and will be missed.

http://www.sellarsfuneralservices.com/obits/obituary.php?oid=c05398d83e7d16d3ba430a54e94f8b2d

Shelter in place warning for Livingston county

KYC139-071815-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING
LIVINGSTON COUNTY KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1211 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
LIVINGSTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THE EMERGENCY MANAGER HAS REQUESTED PEOPLE SHELTER IN PLACE IN THE
FOLLOWING AREAS BETWEEN...THE INTERCHANGE OF HIGHWAY 60 AND 937
THROUGH THE INTERSECTION OF 453 AND JAKE DUKES ROAD IN LIVINGSTON
COUNTY. THE SHELTER IN PLACE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
100 PM CDT.

THIS IS DUE TO A CHEMICAL RELEASE FROM A CALVERT CITY CHEMICAL PLANT.

BRENT STRINGER
LIVINGSTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER

$$

Great rain chances

Up to 90% chance of rain and non severe thunderstorms. Best chance is after 11am though tonight and though even tomorrow rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible.

Winter forecast from west ky blogspot comes early

My winter prediction may be coming as soon as this upcoming week. Instead of Oct 21st but all my pre winter forecasts wile be finalized by then.

Warm Apples

A warm apple fest today in Hopkinsville KY check it out

Coolness ends warmness begins

First post of October. Cool conditions end today as warm conditions take over.

Temps will soar into the 80's today. With highs in the mid to possibly near upper 80's tommorow and Monday.