I'm waking up cause September ends.

First line of duty September in West KY averaged about degrees above average, which is actually cooler than last September. It wasn't so much highs but the warm lows this month that kept us above average for September 2008.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/stories/summer2008.php
^^ Alaska link on cold high temps this summer ^^
Also winter wx advisories are up for SE Alaska for upwards to 7 inches of snow.

Parts of my posts on TN Weather zone. (not really a forecast but an analog view of analogs used for my Oct 21st prediction)
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1535.240.html - go here to view the the full post and here discussion of this winter of 2008-09
Final forecast for winter on October 21st 2008.

Here will be my analogs ( you will love me for 1950-51 and 1976-77 and you will hate me for 1989-90. Some people may love me or fell neutral for 2000-2001)

1950-51 (very snowy winter for Hopkinsville area )
1976-77 (pretty snowy winter for all of West KY)
1989-90
2000-01

(1950-1951) Weak La Nina. Second snowiest winter in Nashville history with over 30 inches of snow. Featured the Great App. Storm of Thanksgiving Weekend of 1950, and the Great 1951 Ice Storm.

Average mean temps are as follows in Nashvegas for this winter.
NOV: 42.5 (3rd coolest November on record)
DEC: 34.4 (9th coolest December on record)
JAN: 40.2
FEB: 41.7
MAR: 49.5

- A winter with a brutal November a -1 low record in November coldest ever for that month. A 7.2 inch dumping of snow occurred at that time to. December was very cold also and followed November in that manner. Jan- March weren't real warm either, but they weren't near as cold compared to average as November and December was. All months Nov-Mar reported at least 1 inch of snow.

- Why I like this as an analog. It is similar to what are we are heading to this winter. - A weak la Nina/neutral that followed a strong la Nina. 1949-50 and 2007-08 are very close analogs in La Nina strength. - Arctic air is starting to built up in Alaska and Canada with areas cooler than they were last year, and 1950-51 you can tell was master of long and brutal arctic invasions esp. in Nov/Dec. Not saying that we will get it this bad in 2008-09, but we should have some brrrrrr this year compared to what were used to. Even long range models are consistent even though they have the same winning record as the TN Vol's so cold in esp in November and December.

(1976-1977) Weak El Nino, followed after the strong 75-76 la Nina episode. Another snow fest for Nashville unlike 50-51 Paduach and Memphis get involved. 15th snowiest winter in Nashville with 21.5 inches of pretty white stuff. This will be forever known as the winter that brought Global Cooling mess of the 1970's alive. 76-77 the winter that invented Global Cooling "we are all gonna freeze to death"

Averages Means
NOV: 40.9 ( Coldest November ever).
DEC: 36.6 (not top 10 coolest but still cold)
JAN: 24.5 ( words and images of bacon and cold and snow can't explain how cold this is. Not the coldest January ever, the coldest month that the city of Nashville has ever seen)
FEB: 40.6 ( about as cold as Feb 2006 so about average)
MAR: 53.9

his winter caused panic about ice age kinda like the winter of 2005-06 and 2006-07 set panic about global warming. Jan 1976 was one of the snowiest January's in Nashville record. The coldest month Nashville and Mid TN and West KY has ever seen. Feb and March were actually warmer months and didn't receive snowfall. All snow came from Nov-Jan with 18.5 of it in January.

Why I like this analog- Another good ol la Nina in 75-76 led up to this. So here is another weak nino/nina or neutral followed by a strong la nina. The coldness in November and December can be similar to the fact that this winter our coldest periods could be in November to first of January. We def. won't be lucky to match quite this legendary cold we saw this winter.

(1989-90) A Neutral winter. This winter doesn't place in the top 20 best winters in Nashville history for snow. It matter of fact for all of West KY and Mid TN it was well below average in snowfall department. Dec the cold arctic opened up Dec 1989 was a brutal cold month. With the mean (average low/high) below 30 degrees. Dec 2006 and 2007 average was 46 degrees a few degrees above average for comparison. Nov, Jan, Feb, and March were all above average.

Averages/Means
NOV: 51.4
DEC: 29.5 (The coldest December ever. Only 0.4 inches of snow fell though proving that cold doesn't always mean snow.
JAN: 45.8 - Just .3 shy of Jan 2006 (10th warmest on record for Nashville, 1st for Paduach)
FEB: 49.9 ( 5th warmest Feb. on record)
MAR:53.6

A cold December the coldest ever. A cold month that is real intense, but only worth .4 inch of snow. This winter sucked worse than 2006-2007 at least 1 inch of snow fell here lately. This winter ended up with 0.8 inches of snow as all the arctic air bottled up and unleashed upon the area in December, after that all the arctic air was gone.

Why it is a good analog: You don't want this to be an analog. You wanted 1950-51 and 1976-77 for all the snow, but sad and true this is a good analog. This winter followed a strong la nina (1988-89) that was my analog last year. It ended up neutral which for the most part this winter should end up. With bottling up of arctic air if it can built and built instead of this wash and rinse pattern just like all these analogs, November and December might head to the record books this year just like it did in 1989-90, 1950-51, 1976-77, and our last analog 2000-2001.

(2000-2001) A weak to near Moderate La Nina. This might be my favorite analog of the four to 2008-09 as it stands. This winter might not fall to la nina quite like this one did. One difference to this winter compared to the other three is 99-2000 was neutral/weak la nina and didn't follow a strong la nina like this winter and the other three did. It was still a la nina though, and has the same Arctic built up we are seeing today. You probably saw the same with animals hoarding up and preparing for a good winter on the way like you are today. Very close to 1989-90 except not as warm in Jan and Feb, and more snow and ice in KY and TN even though Nashville's snow total doesn't tell that.

MEAN/Averages
NOV: 48.0
DEC: 30.8 (4th Coldest Dec on record in Nashville. 1st in Paduach)
JAN: 35.4
FEB: 44.7
MAR:45.3

Not the best winter ever. Only 4.1 inches of snow in Nashville, but that 4.1 doesn't even come close to telling the story. This might be one of the most slept on winter as far be pretty cool. Dec set records for cold. NOV, JAN, MAR are all even below average even though not record setting. Dec featured some decent but not real mind shocking snow and also some ice events.

Reason for analog: See the other 3 winters. 2000-01 analogs closely to 1989-90. The only diff. more moisture and overall winter is colder in 2000-01 meaning more weather events.