I'm waking up cause September ends.

First line of duty September in West KY averaged about degrees above average, which is actually cooler than last September. It wasn't so much highs but the warm lows this month that kept us above average for September 2008.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/stories/summer2008.php
^^ Alaska link on cold high temps this summer ^^
Also winter wx advisories are up for SE Alaska for upwards to 7 inches of snow.

Parts of my posts on TN Weather zone. (not really a forecast but an analog view of analogs used for my Oct 21st prediction)
http://tennesseewx.com/index.php/topic,1535.240.html - go here to view the the full post and here discussion of this winter of 2008-09
Final forecast for winter on October 21st 2008.

Here will be my analogs ( you will love me for 1950-51 and 1976-77 and you will hate me for 1989-90. Some people may love me or fell neutral for 2000-2001)

1950-51 (very snowy winter for Hopkinsville area )
1976-77 (pretty snowy winter for all of West KY)
1989-90
2000-01

(1950-1951) Weak La Nina. Second snowiest winter in Nashville history with over 30 inches of snow. Featured the Great App. Storm of Thanksgiving Weekend of 1950, and the Great 1951 Ice Storm.

Average mean temps are as follows in Nashvegas for this winter.
NOV: 42.5 (3rd coolest November on record)
DEC: 34.4 (9th coolest December on record)
JAN: 40.2
FEB: 41.7
MAR: 49.5

- A winter with a brutal November a -1 low record in November coldest ever for that month. A 7.2 inch dumping of snow occurred at that time to. December was very cold also and followed November in that manner. Jan- March weren't real warm either, but they weren't near as cold compared to average as November and December was. All months Nov-Mar reported at least 1 inch of snow.

- Why I like this as an analog. It is similar to what are we are heading to this winter. - A weak la Nina/neutral that followed a strong la Nina. 1949-50 and 2007-08 are very close analogs in La Nina strength. - Arctic air is starting to built up in Alaska and Canada with areas cooler than they were last year, and 1950-51 you can tell was master of long and brutal arctic invasions esp. in Nov/Dec. Not saying that we will get it this bad in 2008-09, but we should have some brrrrrr this year compared to what were used to. Even long range models are consistent even though they have the same winning record as the TN Vol's so cold in esp in November and December.

(1976-1977) Weak El Nino, followed after the strong 75-76 la Nina episode. Another snow fest for Nashville unlike 50-51 Paduach and Memphis get involved. 15th snowiest winter in Nashville with 21.5 inches of pretty white stuff. This will be forever known as the winter that brought Global Cooling mess of the 1970's alive. 76-77 the winter that invented Global Cooling "we are all gonna freeze to death"

Averages Means
NOV: 40.9 ( Coldest November ever).
DEC: 36.6 (not top 10 coolest but still cold)
JAN: 24.5 ( words and images of bacon and cold and snow can't explain how cold this is. Not the coldest January ever, the coldest month that the city of Nashville has ever seen)
FEB: 40.6 ( about as cold as Feb 2006 so about average)
MAR: 53.9

his winter caused panic about ice age kinda like the winter of 2005-06 and 2006-07 set panic about global warming. Jan 1976 was one of the snowiest January's in Nashville record. The coldest month Nashville and Mid TN and West KY has ever seen. Feb and March were actually warmer months and didn't receive snowfall. All snow came from Nov-Jan with 18.5 of it in January.

Why I like this analog- Another good ol la Nina in 75-76 led up to this. So here is another weak nino/nina or neutral followed by a strong la nina. The coldness in November and December can be similar to the fact that this winter our coldest periods could be in November to first of January. We def. won't be lucky to match quite this legendary cold we saw this winter.

(1989-90) A Neutral winter. This winter doesn't place in the top 20 best winters in Nashville history for snow. It matter of fact for all of West KY and Mid TN it was well below average in snowfall department. Dec the cold arctic opened up Dec 1989 was a brutal cold month. With the mean (average low/high) below 30 degrees. Dec 2006 and 2007 average was 46 degrees a few degrees above average for comparison. Nov, Jan, Feb, and March were all above average.

Averages/Means
NOV: 51.4
DEC: 29.5 (The coldest December ever. Only 0.4 inches of snow fell though proving that cold doesn't always mean snow.
JAN: 45.8 - Just .3 shy of Jan 2006 (10th warmest on record for Nashville, 1st for Paduach)
FEB: 49.9 ( 5th warmest Feb. on record)
MAR:53.6

A cold December the coldest ever. A cold month that is real intense, but only worth .4 inch of snow. This winter sucked worse than 2006-2007 at least 1 inch of snow fell here lately. This winter ended up with 0.8 inches of snow as all the arctic air bottled up and unleashed upon the area in December, after that all the arctic air was gone.

Why it is a good analog: You don't want this to be an analog. You wanted 1950-51 and 1976-77 for all the snow, but sad and true this is a good analog. This winter followed a strong la nina (1988-89) that was my analog last year. It ended up neutral which for the most part this winter should end up. With bottling up of arctic air if it can built and built instead of this wash and rinse pattern just like all these analogs, November and December might head to the record books this year just like it did in 1989-90, 1950-51, 1976-77, and our last analog 2000-2001.

(2000-2001) A weak to near Moderate La Nina. This might be my favorite analog of the four to 2008-09 as it stands. This winter might not fall to la nina quite like this one did. One difference to this winter compared to the other three is 99-2000 was neutral/weak la nina and didn't follow a strong la nina like this winter and the other three did. It was still a la nina though, and has the same Arctic built up we are seeing today. You probably saw the same with animals hoarding up and preparing for a good winter on the way like you are today. Very close to 1989-90 except not as warm in Jan and Feb, and more snow and ice in KY and TN even though Nashville's snow total doesn't tell that.

MEAN/Averages
NOV: 48.0
DEC: 30.8 (4th Coldest Dec on record in Nashville. 1st in Paduach)
JAN: 35.4
FEB: 44.7
MAR:45.3

Not the best winter ever. Only 4.1 inches of snow in Nashville, but that 4.1 doesn't even come close to telling the story. This might be one of the most slept on winter as far be pretty cool. Dec set records for cold. NOV, JAN, MAR are all even below average even though not record setting. Dec featured some decent but not real mind shocking snow and also some ice events.

Reason for analog: See the other 3 winters. 2000-01 analogs closely to 1989-90. The only diff. more moisture and overall winter is colder in 2000-01 meaning more weather events.

Just for fun departures.

October takes us closer to winter. On a month that could be wild with severe wx possible, our first frost and freeze a maybe, and cold/hot clashing meaning more warm streaks, but also more of the fall conditions that we had a brief taste of this month and even this summer at times.

By the end of this month you should see fall colors start to really bloom well towards the mid and even deep south and even come to peak in KY, North TN and highlands of TN, Carolinas, GA, AL. With most of the south that experiences fall foliage having patchy fall colors. Of course this is long range so it is with a grain of salt, but usually though leaves change in the South in October and it gets cooler well with the exception of October 2007 and 05 and other ones it gets cooler. Shouldn't be near as warm as 2007. OWB (owensboro) HOP (Hopkinsville) BNA (Nashville)
Other areas of the south for October I posted on Talkweather. RDU ( Raleigh) BHM (Birmingham)

OCTOBER

OWB + 1.8
BNA +2.5
HOP + 2.4
RDU +1.5
BHM +1.9

Just for fun ( coldness in November could mean some negative and true arctic air maybe a Nov. Snow more on Oct 21st)

NOVEMBER

OWB -4.4
BNA - 3.7
HOP - 4.0

Average first freeze 32 and below

For these West KY areas

Average First freeze is used on the freeze (first low below 32) frost chart by NOAA.

Henderson- Oct 20th
Hickman- Oct 20th
Hopkinsville- Oct 24th
Murray- Oct 26th
Owensboro- Oct 21st
Paducah NWS- Oct 25th
Nashville TN NWS site- Oct 28th

The earliest ever freeze in West KY occurred depending on your location in the Sept 30th-Oct 2nd time period. Latest freeze ever in the winter was the first week of December. Even in extreme warm situations there is a freeze by the first week of December. On average it occurs in Mid to Late October.

Burn bans in West KY

Henderson, Daviess, Webster, McLean, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, and Marshall counties are under burn bans due to dryer conditions.

Please respect these burn bans

a fire risk

Wildfire threat is possible Friday due to low humidity, a dry ne wind, and dry ground.

Start of Fall is here

Fall Equinox starts Tomm. Sept 22nd( fall equinox yes) ( 2nd year anniversary of Sept 22/23rd Severe wx outbreak yes)

Fall is here.

Warm temps in the mid 80's will toast us some areas upper 80's so as usual summer rules as fall starts but for how long will it rule.

PAH link

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=18073&source=0

Link of 50-81 MPH winds recorded in West KY on Sunday Sept. 14th.

counties that are state or emergancy

Ballard, Caldwell, Carlisle, Fulton, Hickman, Lyon and Union Counties are decalred state of EMergancy.

Courtesy of PAH channel 6.

Even courthouses are closed

http://www.wpsdlocal6.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=102586c4-f8e3-4d81-9a98-97ff8cb1d864
In Carlise, HIckman, Fulton counties

Kentucky school closings due to wind

KENTUCKY:
Hickman County, Kentucky
Fulton County, Kentucky
Graves County, Kentucky
Mayfield City Schools, Mayfield, Kentucky
Northside Baptist Christian, Mayfield, Kentucky
St. Joseph School, Mayfield, Kentucky
Hopkins County, Kentucky
Marshall County, Kentucky
Caldwell County, Kentucky
Christian Fellowship, Benton, Kentucky

click on the PAH channel 6 link to my left for more information.

More counties declared a state of emergancy

Several counties like Graves and Caldwell have also Declared State of Emergancy. Mostly due to wind damage and tress down on important state roads.

Almost as bad as Jan 29th wind event.

Non Thunderstorm Wind Damage Sept 14th.

Carlisle and Hickman counties in West KY declared a state of emergency. Carlisle county has 20 homes/mobile homes destroyed by the wind as trees blew on them. We had several limbs fall in my yard and my neighbors yards one big limb landed on a car but the car was undamaged. Trees were on roads also and power out on Ft. Campbell Blvd. Graves County had damage to tobacco barns and Owensboro had 73MPH wind gusts and damage to a mobile home.

Business owners had there windows blown out in Lone Oak in McCracken county. Cadiz is without power and Paduach had semi blown over.

Wind speeds ranged from 45 to 75MPH in the non thunderstorm wind event.

And sadly two deaths occurred in Nashville due to a tree blown on a golf cart.

Windy Wendy Update

Severe threat is over for West KY.

Wind threat continues to 1pm and will gradually start to die down from 2-7pm.

High Wind Warning till 1pm

Wind Advisory till 4 or 7pm depending on where you are at.

Henderson Wind Gust

Wind Speed: SW 38 G 54 MPH

From Henderson

WInd gust of 52MPH

Wind Speed: SW 37 G 52 MPH

from Ft. Campbell.

Windy Update

Wind strong enough to blow down small trees and knock over power lines in some cases is possible.


High Wind Warning till 1pm remains in effect for NW Mid TN and all of West KY. Very strong wind gusts have knocked over trees and could knock over power lines.


Wind Advisory with winds up to 40MPH is in effect for rest of Mid TN.


Slight risk of severe wx remains but it appears that the tornado threat is decreasing a good deal but still cant be completely ruled out.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR WEST KY till 1am

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
915 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

ILZ089-090-093-094-KYZ001>013-017-022-142100-
/O.EXA.KPAH.HW.W.0002.
000000T0000Z-080914T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.
000000T0000Z-080914T2100Z/
JOHNSON-POPE-PULASKI-MASSAC-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-
MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-
TRIGG-CALDWELL-CHRISTIAN-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...MOUND CITY...
METROPOLIS...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...
MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...HOPKINSVILLE...ELKTON
915 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2008

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON.


THE REMNANTS OF IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST.
ITS
RAPID LIFT IS CAUSING WINDS TO REACH SUSTAINED LEVELS IN THE 30 TO
40 MPH RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO NEAR 60 MPH.
THIS IS
DOWNING TREES AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES IN SOME LOCALES.


THESE EXCESSIVELY HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 100 PM...SO
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 100 PM TO 400 PM WHEN WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
45 MPH.


$$

Strong WInds today

Strong winds of 30-45MPH is possible today. COuld blow off loose objects so beware of that and make travel somewhat hazardous. Esp with high profile vechiles

Slight RIsk of severe wx today

A slight risk of a brief tornado or wind event in a band of IKE is possible a slight risk for West KY today.

Changes start Winter of 08-09

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SHOW THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CURRENT AND FUTURE
ADVISORY AND WARNING CATEGORIES:

TABLE 1 - WINTER ADVISORIES

CURRENT WINTER ADVISORIES FUTURE WINTER ADVISORIES

FREEZING RAIN --------------------- FREEZING RAIN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ------------------ LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW - LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WIND CHILL ------------------------ WIND CHILL
WINTER WEATHER -------------------- WINTER WEATHER
SNOW ------------------------------ WINTER WEATHER
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ------------- WINTER WEATHER
SLEET ----------------------------- WINTER WEATHER
BLOWING SNOW ---------------------- WINTER WEATHER

TABLE 2 - WINTER WARNINGS

CURRENT WINTER WARNINGS FUTURE WINTER WARNINGS

BLIZZARD -------------------------- BLIZZARD
ICE STORM ------------------------- ICE STORM
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ------------------ LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WIND CHILL ------------------------ WIND CHILL
WINTER STORM ---------------------- WINTER STORM
HEAVY SNOW ------------------------ WINTER STORM
SLEET ----------------------------- WINTER STORM

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Putting Everything Simply....

*Winter Storm Warnings Will Now Include/Eliminate...

-Heavy Snow Warnings
-Heavy Sleet Accumulations

*Winter Weather Advisories Will Now Include/Eliminate...

-Snow Advisories
-Snow & Blowing Snow Advisories
-Light Sleet Accumulations
-Blowing Snow Advisories

*Lake Effect Snow Warnings/Advisories Will Now Include/Eliminate...

-Lake Effect & Blowing Snow Advisories

*Wind Chill Advisories Currently Remain Unchanged

WInd Advisory for West KY tommorow

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
202 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-140315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WI.Y.0005.080914T1200Z-080915T0000Z/
/O.CON.KPAH.LW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-080914T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
202 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY.

AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE LIFT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY...WINDS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE WILL
INCREASE...AND WITH GUSTS WILL BE NEAR OR EXCEED ADVISORY LEVEL
THRESHOLDS.

THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF IKE WILL ENTER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AROUND
SUNRISE SUNDAY...WHEN WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH...AVERAGING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH
RANGE.

DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF WHAT WAS IKE WILL LIFT
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS AND REACH ALL THE
WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...DRAGGING WITH IT ITS POWERFUL
WINDS. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AVERAGE IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH
RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SOME GUSTS MAY REACH OR EXCEED
45 MPH AT TIMES.

BY THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...IKE WILL
CONTINUE ITS RAPID LIFT AWAY FROM OUR AREA...THUS SUBSIDING THE
WINDS TO BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 30 MPH OR GREATER FOR LONGER THAN ONE HOUR...OR WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH FOR ANY DURATION.

REMEMBER A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 700
PM FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH AT TIMES. THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY OVER
WATERWAYS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH LIKE THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...LAKE BARKLEY...AND KENTUCKY LAKE...AND WILL WILL CAUSE
ROUGH CHOP AND POSE A PARTICULAR HAZARD TO SMALLER BOATS THAT WILL BE
ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. WHILE THEY WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THEY WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING
TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY.

$$

LAKE WIND ADVIOSRY for West KY

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-140000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.LW.Y.0001.080913T1600Z-080914T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1100 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

MID MORNING WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AVERAGING IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE WERE ALREADY GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 MPH RANGE AT 10 AM.
SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS WINDS WERE REPORTEDLY ALREADY GUSTING INTO
THE LOWER 30S MPH.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON...WE ANTICIPATE AVERAGE SOUTH WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE...PARTICULARLY OVER
AREA WATERWAYS WHERE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS ARE LESS AN IMPEDIMENT.
GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY REACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL DEFINITELY IMPACT AREA BOATERS AND
WATERLANE TRAFFIC. BE PREPARED FOR MORE TREACHEROUS BOATING TRAVEL
CONDITIONS DUE TO THESE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND RESULTANT HIGHER
WAVE CONDITIONS. WITH THE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED WATER BODIES...LIKE
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...LAKE BARKLEY...AND KENTUCKY LAKE.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

250,000 people will have to be saved.

Rescue calls called for residents who found out to late that they should of heeded evacuation orders. 250,000 residents will have to be rescued, by MSNBC the largest search and rescue mission in Texas history.

Price Gouging report in West KY

http://migration. kentucky. gov/newsroom/governor/20080912pricegouging. htm

From Gov. Steve Beshear

IKE has made landfall

IKE made landfall around Galveston Island. 1,800 homes flooding in Galveston and most all off Houston is without power. TWC info reports people stranded on rooftops, extreme surge, high waves, high winds in excess of 90MPH, tornadoes in LA, and inland flooding.

IKE will later bring a sig. flood event to areas waterlogged across TX, OK, KS, MO, AK, Se NE, IA, IL, IN, southern parts of MN, WI, and southern MI. This could be a high end event as the cold front and IKE will combine to bring over 10 inches of rain in some areas.

IKE in west ky may bring a steady soaking of rain less than a inch. TOrnado threat isnt out of the question in West KY mostly Sunday. More details in that.

IKE will bring a tornado threat across East TX, LA, and Arkansas into the Ozarks as far east as the Miss. RIver.

Out of Gas

Some stations in Cadiz and Hopkinsville and possibly others in West KY have ran out of gas.

IKE is bound for a hit on Houston tonight see past several posts for more info.

The Great IKE wall

This image is from NOAA. NOAA has awesome satellites.

Pray for the effected

Time to say a good prayer for the Texas and Louisiana communities in the path of Hurricane IKE and will potentially be devastated. And also for the flooding and tornado threat that will exist well inland.

No more Galveston Rescues after 9PM to so hope for these people who stayed back it will be a long night for them.

Message from a friend Gas Prices up

as many of you know that gas prices has jumped alot from $3.51 to about $4.60 for some & my weather buddy has just told me it may go up to $5 dollas & the reason for that is Houston TX is a major oil where we pretty much get our gas from & they are closed cause of IKE track will hit them.

So to get your gas prices go to www. gasbuddy.
com

www. gasbuddy.
com

IKE rains across West KY might be less than 1 inch.

Only .25 to 1 inch of rain is expected in West KY this weekend. Sunday looks to be the wettest day, and there may be some potential for brief severe wx. GFS is working that NW trend that has the low from West Ky and now as far north as WI and MI. The ridge across the SE is sterring this northward and eastward.

Ike's Path

IKE late tonight/early tomm. looks to take a direct hit on Houston. Tornadoes, surge, coastal flooding, inland flooding, strong winds, and huge winds are all possible in the TX/LA areas effected.

heads up

Heavy Rain and severe wx may be possible in West KY Sat Night-SUn Night stay tuned for more info in posts tomm and Sat.

9/11 7 years ago

Please take a moment to remember those who lost their lives in the biggest terrorist attack on American soil today. In those attacks in the field of PA, Pentagon, and the Trade towers of New York.

For now on 9/11 will be referred to as Patriot Day

IKE is in the Gulf spinning

Hurricane IKE is and will be a huge story this week. IT is in the middle of the Gulf and a tough forecast remains. Ike Can make landfall anywhere from Corpus Christi TX to Cameron LA it will depend on how the effects of a stronger range in Mexico and a strong trough containing a season changing cold front effect IKE.

If IKE continues slow IKE may make the dash north just before landfall and end up in Beaumont TX or possibly West Louisiana for a landfall. If it goes as planned it will hit Houston/Galveston metro area head on and move towards Temple TX and then turn northeastward.

If it speeds up a lot it may move more south towards Corpus Christi and the Victoria TX area.

SO a lot is at stake

Now it looks like it will move though KY and TN as a tropcial depression but a lot of unknowns are not known.

Heavy Rain may be possible in KY and TN

IKE in Cuba

Ike is spinning surge, heavy rain and winds across Cuba. A high pressure is expected to now settle in Mexico. This may result in the track of Ike being in TX and away from LA, MS, and AL. More details as it moves more into the Gulf.

IKE will effect the story this weekend

Major Hurricane IKE will move and possibly devastate CUBA. What it does afterward who knows. A powerful trough and a cold front moving into West KY in the Thurs Night/Fri range will be a key in when IKE stops moving west and moves more due north.

Severe threat is done Stock market does horrible.

Severe threat due to dry air advection and shear moving further north didn't happen. Fall severe weather fans will have to wait for a later date for that threat again. Since West KY fall severe wx season is Sept-Nov it probably wont be long to wait.

Stock market due to jobs report and weak economy nearly completely collapsed on itself going down 344. If the job outlook tomorrow is really bad watch out it will get will ugly around this country quickly.

update update

With better shear up north and power of cold front slight risk is now just from Paduach to Sebree north. Isolated tornadoes and brief gusty winds are possiblie in this area. A brief warning cant be ruled out for the rest of West KY.
Threat should be over with by early tonight

Severe storms possible today.

While not expected to be an extreme outbreak. I am concerned about the possibility early this afternoon of non-super cell storms with damaging wind and tornado potential. There are a lot of potential for a bust or nothing , but also the chance of isolated tornadoes although not big.

Best time would be 11am-5pm.

FOr all of West KY esp from Cadiz to Henderson KY west is best threat.

Events for West KY this weekend

Wickliffe KY harvest festival from today though Saturday.

Hopkinsville's Trail of Trails starting on Sept 6th

Dawson SPrings= Home country weekend Sept 5th-7th in Dawson Springs

Tornado threat tommorow

Although not a strong or very sig. tornado threat. There may be enough shear and instability to cause some damaging winds in excess of 58MPH and brief tornadoes. Remains of Gustav will run along a cold front that will move though West KY instead of stall. The cold front is powerful but will only drop temperatures a little bit. As it loses its punch moving across west ky. Gustavs last spin and the cold front should lead to our first fall severe wx threat of the year.

Non supercell thunderstorms in a sheared enviorment cant be ruled out with tornadoes and wind a maybe.

An tornado outbreak is not expected and whether West KY gets a tornado or not is a very low confidence prediction. Enough shear and instability may exist from 10am-6pm tomorrow to allow the possibly of a isolated tornado and maybe strong wind also locally heavy rain will be a threat stay tuned for news and radio and media.

I may not because of family and dentist be able to track this. If something happens heed the warnings, but there is also a good chance that we luck out the chance for tornadoes is not great and intense shouldnt be too much of a problem, but up to an EF-1 can cause damage.

So don't panic, but don't ignore tornado warnings if issued. We could have a few tornadoes and wind damage, but also we could not get anything a watch, storm report, or a warning at all.

Update

Tropcial moisture is possible today in areas like Wickliffe and Hickman KY. ISolated showers are possible rest of the day and night tonight. No severe wx is expected today and tonight.

TOmm. a complicated forecast is in store. It looks like a isolated wind damage is possible from storms. Both maybe convective and strong winds 20-30mph expected. A slight risk of severe wx is forecasted for West KY tommorow. The threats are a isolated tornado threat and a damaging wind threat.

more info in a few minutes.

Slight risk of severe and locally heavy rain

A tropical rain/ brief tornado threat is possible across West KY starting today. Esp. Thursday though. The remains of TD Gustav will move NE across MO and ARK along a cold front and lead to a mini tornado/strong wind possibly.


The biggest threat may be some good rain esp in the Purchase area of West KY. Could produce up to a inch or two of rain in some areas esp if the stalled cold front is closer to west ky and the remains of Gustav move more eastward.


SPC has a slight risk today west of the miss. but a brief spin up cant be ruled out in far west ky today. SPC tomorrow has a slight risk for the purchase area of West Kentucky. For brief winds/ an maybe a tornado threat and the best time for this will probably be the 10am-5pm range as the shear weakens throughout the day.

Gustav could effect West KY

Not a far fetched concept that Gustav can effect us with some rain don't know how much. And maybe a brief tornado spin up. The best chance would be in Jackson Purchase area of a brief tornado and strong winds. It really depends on if it moves NE and how far NE it moves. A more eastward trend than things get interesting.

Damage in the area

Flooding range and some damage in moderate potenial. Gustav has made landfall in near Cocodrie LA as a strong CAT 2 weakening should occur thoughout the day.

Gustav is coming home

Gustav makes landfall at Houma area it looks like. As a weak cat 3/ strong cat 2 storm.