Wildfire Potential Today and Tomorrow

College is cranking

If you noticed the lack of posts this month it is due to college. In April unless a serious weather event, or a watch or warning gets issued there may not be a lot of posts. Don't worry, I will still be on top of any severe weather that may occur on April, and post it on here.

April severe predictions

Although just for fun, due to the fading el nino, and the subtropical jet this is my fun prediction for April severe weather. The gulf should finally start to be open for business in April, and cause severe weather in the Southern portion of the US from Eastern New Mexico to areas along and south of I-40 in Arkansas and TN and the gulf coast states, and the Carolinas. Severe weather may head into North Mid TN and West KY west towards Kansas later in the month, but of course it is way too far to judge in Late April.

The watch has been canceled. 35 mph gusts are possible in West KY throughout tonight as the low moves though.

Thunderstorm Watch 35 for sw KY and West Mid TN

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0035.html

Four Leaf Clovers got buried in 1892.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=45231&source=0

On this date in 1892 Mid TN was buried in snow. Good luck finding the four leaf clovers. The powerful nature of the system also caused several inches of snow to be reported into West KY as well.

NWS PAH special weather statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
157 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

KYZ008-009-011-012-122045-
LYON KY-MARSHALL KY-TRIGG KY-CALLOWAY KY-
157 PM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 150 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHOWER WITH HAIL.  THIS SHOWER WAS LOCATED NEAR HARDIN...MOVING EAST
TO NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS SHOWER MAY PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND HAIL UP TO
DIME SIZE AS IT MOVES ACROSS KENTUCKY LAKE NEAR FAIRDEALING
AND AURORA THROUGH 230 PM. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS
THE TRACE IN THE LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...NEAR ENERGY AS
WELL.

THIS STORM PRODUCED DIME SIZE HAIL IN HARDIN FROM AROUND 140 TO 145
PM.

FARTHER NORTH IN MARSHALL COUNTY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY EXIST AS A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH. THIS AREA
WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF THE LAKES AREA...AND AFFECT THE
CALVERT CITY...AND GRAND RIVERS AREAS.

$$

March 11th overview

Tonight's update for tonight and tomm.

Click on the map to enlarge.

Tornado Watch 27 for 4 counties in West KY

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 27
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
750 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

TORNADO WATCH 27 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC007-039-075-105-110800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0027.100311T0150Z-100311T0800Z/

KY
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CARLISLE            FULTON
HICKMAN
$$

Mesoscale Discussion watch out for SW KY

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0173.html

Some supercells could form in SW KY.

I still think the main threat will be wind or hail with the strongest storms, but if a super-cell can get organized an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in SW KY, but the main threat if any severe storms form will be wind, hail, and lightning.

March 10th Slight Risk

Click to enlarge the image.

Most of the Western Kentucky threat if not all of it should occur after 11PM.

Watch out due to dry vegetation, and debris the fire danger could be elevated. So beware of that threat. Some small fires have broken out over the weekend due to this.

Warmth continues some thunderstorms

Temps will warm into the upper 60's and lower 70's for tomorrow. Slight chance of rain, but the bigger chance of rain and thunderstorms will be tomorrow night into Thursday. Some storms may be strong across Fulton, Graves, and Hickman county, but no widespread strong to severe storm threat is expected.

Something I posted on Facebook

A nice post I have been following over at the Tennessee Weather Forum, and also in other weather forums like Talkweather, and such has brought an interesting question to the surface. How can people be so interested and so pumped up about severe weather which causes billions of dollars of damage, kills (60 a year people with Tornadoes and straight line winds), and over 60 with lightning, not including flash flood death tolls from any flooding threat that may occur during the severe event. It is an interesting question and on this little not thing I will try to give my answer.

First of all it is important to know that within the community of spotters, and chasers, meteorologists and weather lovers, that nobody wants to see total destruction, and or death and injuries. We all love our severe storms, and we love to track them on radar, or chase them in live time, but for people who have any type empathy including the weather people seeing a tornado tear up a town, or a derecho producing 100+MPH winds go though a metropolitan areal makes your heart sink. In matter of fact many chasers will tell you that they like there tornadoes in rural areas with no structures, and people around, and very little chance of any type of damage to occur.

The thrill of severe weather comes not from the destruction of people and places, but from the awe of what can happen when Weather is behaving badly. We as humans are always interested in the unknown, and there is still a lot of an unknown factor in severe weather. We might have 14 minute lead times on tornado warnings, and be able to call a potential High Risk Day out 3 or 4 days in advance, but there is still so much to learn about severe weather. Some severe weather days don't pan out, or you have very early November,6th, 2005 where the activity overachieves. I think it is a God given ability to humans, to be curious about the unknown. This is the same reason several humans are into Space, and Philosophy, and things of that nature. With tornadoes it is the same way, we tend to stare at tornadoes with wonder, and look at videos of past tornado outbreaks, and bring up dates like 3/18/1925, 4/3/1974, 4/2 and 4/7 2006, and 2/5 and 2/6/2008.

It is painful for many people including myself to think back about some of the disasters that occurred on the dates that have been listed above, but it is part of life as we know it. We have to go though the tornadoes, and the severe weather days to learn about it, and help prepare for it so that less life will be lost, less injury occurs, and less property will need to be destroyed. We have to in any tragedy not just weather related. have to pick up the pieces, pray, and hope for a better day.

The sad part of tornadoes isn't going to stop me from tracking storms, or hopefully one day chasing them. Instead it will help me realize that in life everything can change in a blink of an eye. Just like on Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008 when it was 76 degrees in February, and we were hanging out in the classroom that afternoon wondering about how beautiful it was. Than at the end of the following night learning that it can all change.

The main idea isn't just all about my idea onsevere weather, but it is important that you live life to the fullest, enjoy the people you care about, and have fun in doing whatever it is that you do; because tomorrow is not promised

Quick winter wrap up

Winter 09-10 was 6th coldest on record for Paducah KY. 13th for Evansville IN. The winter was the coldest since 83-84 more details later on.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=48713&source=0

KY tornado page

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=sspm#recent_ky_tors

Gov. Steve Beshear has declared the Month of March to be severe weather awareness month.

Tornado Drill for TN

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=meg&storyid=48831&source=0

Tornado Drill for TN. At 9:15am this is not real, but for Severe Weather Awareness Week it is good for practice your tornado safety.

Rainy Feb. Day

Showers and non-severe thunderstorms are moving across Far West KY. From a Fulton KY to Wickliffe KY line moving North and East. Rain with maybe a rumble of Thunder will move across Western Kentucky this evening, and into tonight.

Meanwhile highs got into the low 60's in NW KY, and the Mid to even Upper 60's across the rest of Western Kentucky.

Results from FEb 14th-15th storm

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=valentinenight2010

Amounts ranged from a half inch in far SW KY to 5.5 inches in Owensboro. Sunny days and warmth maybe up to the 40's which will feel a little warmer could melt some snow that has been on the ground for over 7 to 10 days.

A wintry Valentine

Winter Storm Watch for NW KY

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
920 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

.A POTENT MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MARCH EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT.

ILZ075>078-080>083-086-087-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ014-015-018>020-
141100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0004.100215T0000Z-100215T1800Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-SALINE-GALLATIN-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-
SPENCER-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...
POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN
920 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

* STEADY SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING OVER THE
 WARNED AREA...WHICH IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
 PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS...TO SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS TO CALHOUN
 KENTUCKY. THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...THEN
 TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING.

* MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE MAINLY BE ON TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE
 POSSIBILITY OF 4 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL. MOTORISTS SHOULD
 BE PREPARED FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
 THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64
 CORRIDOR OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
 BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

Winter wx advisory cancelled for West KY tonight but still a dusting to an inch possible by late morning in Sunday. main snow event will be Sunday Afternoon though Monday Midday.

First round call map

Tonight from 10PM-10AM doesn't include Sunday afternoon into Monday

West KY Sunday/Monday snow go

This map is from Sunday afternoon though Monday Morning with the clipper. It doesn't include the 1-2 inch tonight and early tomorrow. Most of West KY will change to rain except for maybe Henderson/Owensboro area. The Clipper will move across West KY on Valentine's Day the heaviest snow will be as the clipper/ull becomes more dynamic this will occur in NE portions of West KY in which a little bit more moisture will be available across Daviess,Mclean, and eastern Henderson counties. The system sucks in more moisture, and could be a potent snow machine in the Louisville CWA. Uncertainties on what will be snow or what will be rain in far SW KY could keep amounts down as well for that area.

New Tag on Severe T-storm Warnings

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=48261&source=0

This tag would try and focus more on what is expected in the Severe Thunderstorm Warning. This will be experimental starting in March though October. So comment if you want to comment on the use of the T-storm Warnings during this timeframe.

To be one with the clipper wings.

So snow is possible for your Valentine for West KY and even into TN.