Tornado Watch 15

Tornado Watch #15 in effect for all of Western KY except for Union,Henderson,Daviess counties till 10pm.

Update

Confidence Level in severe weather for tonight across West KY is decreasing as the warm front is hung up over SW TN. The Confidence Level for severe weather in Sunday, and Sunday Night in Western Kentucky is increasing, as we won't have the issue of the warm front being too far south. Wouldn't be surprised to see the MDT risk trimmed southward. I was a little skeptical about it anyway.

Update MDT moves a little bit.

Moderate Risk now extends from a Bardwell KY to a Calvert City KY to a Crofton KY line southward.

- Instability will be quite low, and the level of threat will depend on how far north the warm front comes.
- There is a threat for a Damaging winds, and isolated tornado/hail threat, along with heavy rain, and flooding concerns.

Stay Tuned, and Review your flooding/severe weather tips.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

^^ Public Severe Weather Outlook^^

Feb. 24th overview

Timing of event- 4pm-11pm seems to be a good range.
- The main threats are:
- Heavy Rain 2 to 4 inches(maybe locally 5 near the TN borders).
- A Moderate Risk of Severe Weather from Hickman to Murray KY southward, and a Slight Risk elsewhere.
- Severe threat increases further SW you go in the area, and decreases the further N, or NE you go in the area.
- Damaging Winds(main storm mode should be clusters, and maybe a squall line early this evening)
- Isolated Tornadoes

Heavy Rain closing in.

Heavy showers, and thunderstorms across the TN/KY border will slowly move northward into Kentucky, as the warm front lifts northward. Lightning, heavy rain, and possibility some flooding issues may occur throughout the morning hours. Areas south of Dover TN have reported 1.5 to 2 inches of rain an hour with the heaviest storms.

Flood Advisory this morning

FLOOD ADVISORY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 320 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
 KYC035-039-047-075-083-105-157-219-221-MOC133-241215-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0001.110224T0920Z-110224T1215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
 CHRISTIAN KY-TODD KY-MARSHALL KY-TRIGG KY-CARLISLE KY-GRAVES KY- HICKMAN KY-
CALLOWAY KY-MISSISSIPPI MO-FULTON KY- 320 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN 
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR  
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...   SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
SOUTHERN TODD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...  
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI... 
CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
SOUTHERN CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY... 
TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...  * UNTIL 615 AM CST. 
* AT 315 AM CST...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
 BORDER COUNTIES OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS LIFTING SLOWLY
 NORTH.  EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK...
WITH HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE HALF INCH. SOME OF THE LARGER CITIES THAT
CAN EXPECT MINOR STREET AND URBAN FLOODING INCLUDE HOPKINSVILLE...MURRAY...
AND MAYFIELD.  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS RIVER OR STREAM FLOWS ARE ELEVATED OR STANDING WATER IN
 URBAN OR OTHER AREAS IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT.  &&  LAT...LON 3650 8934
 3684 8918 3690 8706 3665 8707       3664 8786 3667 8806 3649 8805  $$

From Rain Famine, to a possible Rain Feast.

With the system for Thursday, and the system Sunday-Early Monday. Well need rain will occur across Western Kentucky, but it may be too much. 2 to 3(locally more) is possible with the Thursday event, and at least a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall is possible for the Sunday-Monday system, this may lead to a threat of river flooding.

- Also heavy snowcover, from this winter still exists in the Great Lakes,Upper Ohio Valley, and wll add to river levels, as it melts and moves downstream.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/fop.html
^^ Use this link for details^^

Weather update

Slight Risk of Severe Weather from a Wickliffe KY to Central City KY line southward. A Moderate Risk exists in the Paris TN area. As of now damaging winds, and maybe even an isolated tornado are possible Thursday Evening/Thursday Night.

A Flash Flood Watch is also in effect for all of Western KY for Thursday/Thursday Night. Heavier rains start late tonight, into tomorrow morning.

Flash Flood Watch for most of West KY.

FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 307 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011  KYZ001>013-015>017-020>022-MOZ112-114-232130- /O.NEW.KPAH.FF.A.0001.110224T1200Z-110225T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON- MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-WEBSTER-HOPKINS- CHRISTIAN-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL... WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY... MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...DIXON...MADISONVILLE... HOPKINSVILLE...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...CHARLESTON... NEW MADRID 307 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011  ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...  THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  * FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY AND  SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN  WESTERN KENTUCKY...BALLARD...CALDWELL...CALLOWAY...CARLISLE...  CHRISTIAN...CRITTENDEN...FULTON...GRAVES...HICKMAN...HOPKINS...  LIVINGSTON...LYON...MARSHALL...MCCRACKEN...MCLEAN...  MUHLENBERG...TODD...TRIGG AND WEBSTER. IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...  MISSISSIPPI AND NEW MADRID.  * FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING  * A DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SET UP HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE   WATCH AREA THURSDAY. REPEAT HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL   PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS   ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS.  * FLOODED ROADWAYS AND PONDING OF WATER ON MAJOR THOROUGHFARES   COULD IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. CREEK AND STREAM   RISES MAY OCCUR QUICKLY IN AREAS RECEIVING REPEAT HEAVY RAINS.  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.  YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.  &&  $$     

Feb 22nd overview.

Click to enlarge.

- Rain should move across Western Kentucky this afternoon(won't amount to a whole lot)
- Cool down on Tuesday
- More updates on this, but we are watching a possiblie heavy rain/thunderstorm event Thursday into Thursday Night, Heavy Rain, Localized Flooding, and maybe even Strong to Severe storms may occur.

Overview time

Winds may cause issue if you're boating on the area lakes today.

Tornado Count

Since Severe Weather Season is just aroudn the corner.

Here using the NCDC Data is the tornado count in Western Kentucky by county since 1950. Also note that a lot of these tornadoes have occurred since 2000(due to increased technology, widespread spotters, and a possibly an uptick in Severe Weather activity).

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/
Any news for space weather here.

Windy Thursday

Wind Advisory from Fulton to Mayfield to Benton to Robards KY northward.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1138 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011


ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>087-KYZ001>008-010-014-018-
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-180000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.WI.Y.0002.110217T1738Z-110218T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-HENDERSON-PERRY MO-
BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-
SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MARION...
MORGANFIELD...HENDERSON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1138 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AT ELEVATED
 LOCATIONS...ON HILLS...AND OVER LAKES.

* IMPACTS...MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION...ESPECIALLY IN
 OPEN AREAS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WINDS. WATCH FOR WIND
 BLOWN OBJECTS ON ROADS. OPERATORS OF SMALL BOATS SHOULD AVOID
 THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. ANY OUTDOOR FIRES WILL HAVE THE
 POTENTIAL TO SPREAD QUICKLY. OBSERVE ANY RESTRICTIONS ON BURNING
 THAT ARE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

&&

$$

MY/DH

Big Flip Flop

Temperatures in the 70's are expected across West KY today, also wind gusts of 35 to 40MPH could also be possible.

- This time last week areas of West KY got as low as -10 for lows.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=spottertraining
Storm Spotting Class tonight in Paducah KY. At 6:30pm, at the Emerging Technology Building. WKCTC building.

Warmth is that you?

http://www.kymesonet.org/
Western Kentucky is burning up.
Hickman: 60
Murray: 61
Henderson: 57

The warm-up is finally here.

Warmth is here

- A warm up is about to commence.
- Mid to upper 50's on Sunday
- Temps. near 70 possible along the TN/KY border by next weekend.

- A warm up is about to commence.
- Mid to upper 50's on Sunday
- Temps. near 70 possible along the TN/KY border by the weekend.

Temps. are cold just for now

Watch out again for temps. in the -6 to +10F range to start you day in Western Kentucky. Will warm up to around freezing today.

- A quick sudden warm up by Sunday, and next week don't be surprised to see 60's around.

Some morning freezer temps.

Temps. In Western Kentucky Include
Hopkinsville: -2F
Paducah: -4F
Henderson: -3F
Cadiz: -6F
Fulton: -4F
- It is officially way too cold outside.

Morning Update

Temperatures range from -7 to +5 this morning(this is temps. not windchills). So bundle up if you have to be outside today.

- For those weary of the cold upper 50's and maybe even 60's will be there next week. As we have a pattern reversal.

Road/Weather Update

http://511.ky.gov/kyhb/main.jsf

KY 511 road conditions 2 to 5 inches of snow has fallen across Western Kentucky.

Light to moderate snow continues across the area, with up to a half inch more of snow possible, snow should taper off by early evening, but road conditions will be hazardous tonight, and into tomorrow.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ017&warncounty=KYC047&firewxzone=KYZ017&local_place1=Hopkinsville+KY&product1=Winter+Storm+WarningWinter Storm Warning for KY/TN border countes. 3 to 5 total.

Watch out for Heavier Bands

Winter WX Advisory

Confidence level of 2 out of 5, maybe even 3 out of 5 near the TN border.
- 1-3 in the advisory area, locally up to 4 near the TN border.