1 year ago. The master of disaster

Statewide Ice Map from NWS Louisville

The Great Ice Storm of Jan. 2009 occurred a year from today.


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=21421&source=0
^^ NWS PAH summary^^
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=jan_2009_ice_and_snow
^^ NWS Louisville Summary^^

It started with a cool Monday, and at the end of the day power-lines started to snap.

Rounds and rounds of freezing rain occurred from the night of the 26th until the morning of the 28th. Finally Snow and Sleet mixed in on the 28th. By the end up to 1-2 inches of ice accumulation occurred with the worst from Paducah and Mayfield east towards Benton, Princeton, and Madisonville and into Muhlenberg, Mclean, and over to Ohio County. Most of West KY received at least a half inch of ice, but rain spared southern parts of Todd, and Christian County from the worst. Also 1 to 4 inches of snow did occur on the 28th on top of the ice further hampering the cleanup.

The cleanup lasted well into the summer, and some people especially in more rural areas didn't receive power till a month or two later. All and all up to 14 fatalities occurred directly or indirectly either from people being stuck in the cold, or improper generator usage, or crewmen trying working on the power.

Jan 26th overview

Jan 26th overview. Click to enlarge map.

Jan 25th threat assessment

Jan 24th overview

Today's Overview

T-Storm watch number 7

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0007.html

T-storm watch for Southeast Counties like Muhlenberg, Christian, Trigg, and Todd counties. large hail is possible.

Tornado Watch number 6

Tornado Watch Number 6 is up for Far SW KY and West Mid TN till 5PM. Large Hail is the main threat, but isolated spin ups cannot be ruled out

Murray, Mayfield, Fulton, and Hickman KY are inculded.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0006.html

A little bit about a few storms tommorow.

A brief overlap of my thoughts:
- Locally Heavy Rain (some flooding in parts of West Mid and South Mid TN possible) Probably main threat for areas involved.
- Not too concerned with severe weather. Slight Risk of Severe wx exists along and south of US 68. Some elevated storms may form as shear increases, with only weak CAPE 300-600 k/jg, and weak moisture return with only mid 50's for dewpoints. This storms could form some hail and maybe a brief funnel/tornado spinup in Mid TN cannot be totally ruled out. Timing is unknown, probably afternoon and evening.
- Stays warmer than average temps till Sunday when a cold front comes and brings average to slightly below average temperatures.

Happy Martin Luther King Junior Day.

Instead of giving a speech, or what I think I will give an important quote from Dr. King himself that sums it all up.

"The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy." - Dr. Martin Luther King JR.

Grade the Winter.

So for West KY or for your area so far at midterm how is your winter.

Something to look at:
- How much snow/ice your area received
- How cold it has been
- The effect of travel and activities this winter
- How much it makes you can compare great winters (like the late 70's and 93-94)

There is a survey you can use to left side of the page.
If you want to give it a specfic grade
A: 90-100
B: 80-89
C: 70-79
D: 60-69
F: 59 and below

have till the 22nd to cast the vote on the survey.

The cold is fading

While not warm after tomorrow the cold snap will come to an end. Temperature gradually warm to average values at the end of this week.

There are signal of well above average temperatures in the long range. This is in the long range, but the model are starting to key on this solution we will need to watch this.

The Cold is in town

Cold Wind Chills are next

Be Careful everyone Wind Chill Advisories are in effect for West and Middle TN with below zero windchills today, and possibility in the -5 to -10 range Friday Night early Saturday. A slight warm up is coming next up next week.

As far as snow up to an half inch or an inch is possible though noon or 1pm before ending. Total accumulations should be around 3/4 of an inch along the KY/TN border with 2 to 2 and half inches in the Henderson/Owensboro area.

Early Morning Snow

Snow is falling across West KY moving across Mid TN. Not a lot of snow will accumulate. 1 to 3 across most of West KY, but blowing snow, low wind chills, and coldness is a big time threat.

Fianl Call Map and final thoughts before the event

Pros of an event:
- Higher Snow Ratios around 15:1 maybe 18:1 in West KY.
- The radar is looking good even though some of that is virga though.
- No Temperature issues (What falls sticks, and even half inch amounts will get you out of school)
- Could have a chance of banding for locally heavier amounts

Cons of an event:
- Limited Gulf Supply is likely(we need this to get more involved)
- It is a short lived event maybe only 5 to 7 hours of snow involved
- KY and TN may be in the dreaded man in the middle situation. Too far north from the southern low, and too far from the northern ULL.
- Dryslotting is a possibility.

I also listed places with red dots. Like JAK for Jackson, HOP for Hopkinsville, and so on.

Winds that pierce

Some Updates

- 1 to 3 south of the West KY Parkway. 2 to 4 north of the West KY Parkway.
- Blowing and drifting of the snow is likely even with only minor amounts this can be a major travel issue. Wind gusts up to 25-30MPH possible.
- Wind Chills start to drop Thursday Afternoon at the end of the heavier snow to around below zero.
- A moisture starved clipper system may bring an additional dusting to an inch across parts of West KY and Mid TN later Friday.

The Morning Update

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in the effect for a winter storm that is expected to strike from wee morning hours of Thursday into the afternoon. Blowing snow could remain a threat even into Thursday Night. So far expect 2 to 3 in the advisory area, and 3 to 4 in the warning area with locally more if any higher bands show up.

West KY map of the Jan 7th event

The Pink is 2 to 3. Gray is 3 to 4. The models are having issues with precipitation. Still confident in some snow, and extreme cold. How much is still up in the air 24 to 36 hours away though.

First Decade, First Month, and Seventh Day

WINTER STORM THOUGHTS

Impacts

• 3 to 5 inches of snow is possible across all of Western Kentucky. 2 to 4 with local amounts around 5 is possible across Middle Tennessee as well. This will be more of a dry and powdery snow as snow ratios will hang around the 14:1-18:1 range with even isolated 20:1 ratios can't be ruled out.
  
• Blowing and drifting of snow especially during the day Thursday and into the night will be an issue.
  
• The cold ground temperatures due to being days without getting above freezing will allow more hazardous travel and road conditions
• The main roads even will have problems because of the cold ground temperatures. Some Secondary roads may have near impossible travel conditions in the height of this even.
• Major Cold Wave is expected afterwards starting later Thursday and though the weekend. Lows below zero and windchills in the -5 to -15 range cannot be ruled out. This could be a very life threatening, and dangerous event so be ready for it.
  

Timing

• I posted a map at the top of the page. This map is for when most of the snow will fall from the sky this could be just the first part of the storm.
• Most of the snowfall and accumulation will occur during the morning rush hour, the morning rush hour will be your worst nightmare moderate to heavy snow showers could be an issue.
• The second part the blowing of drifting of the snow is expected starting mostly after most of the snow has fallen on late Thursday Afternoon into very early Friday Morning. This could hamper the travel as winds increase to 15 to 25MPH with gusts near 30 to 35MPH. Not quite blizzard conditions, but at some moments it could be near blizzard at brief intervals later Thursday.
• The cold could be very biting, and a high impact event. Highs barely in the Teen's for Friday and Saturday, with lows near or even below zero is possible. Wind Chills could be in the -5 to -15F range as well.

The Power Outage threat is low. The snow isn't wet, and is more of a dry snow. Some more brief power outage threats are possible with the cold because of the overuse of the heating systems overtaxing the transformers.

The Second Call map

My only concerns are what will the snow ratios be. Will they be 15:1, 20:1, 22:1 anyway this looks to be a dry powder of a snow, and not the wetter snows we usually see. Also a little concerns about the mini dry slot showing up in models in SW TN.
Overall the confidence of the models, and the trends for more snow are ...encouraging. Temperatures will not be a problem either with this cold air-mass in control.

I am biting on the threat.

The First Call.

My Concerns
- Possible Dry slot on the models in West TN could effect how much snow we get.
- It could take a little bit for precip to reach the ground. The atmosphere will have to saturate.

Good things
- Models have been increasing moisture in NW Mid TN and West KY
- Higher snow ratios could make for slightly higher amounts even in marginal amounts
- ULL could enhance snow amounts in some areas.
- In areas like Crossville, Oneida, Monterey, Jamestown and the higher elevations could pick up locally more due to additional lift.

Stone-Shattering Cold

There are a few updates compared to this morning. Both dealing with the cold number one, and than the snow chances.

- It will be cold tonight. ( Wind Chill Advisories exist in Paris TN area for early tomorrow morning for sub zero wind chills) This cold will continue Tuesday Night
- There is a chance that we might not have a high temperature above freezing until Tuesday of Next Week unless we can make it above freezing this Wednesday(there is only a small chance of this).
- The models are back to showing a little more moisture after last nights 00Z Nam/Gfs wanted to be dream crusher. So watch out for an accumulating snowfall all across West KY and even into Mid TN.
- The winds pick up on Thursday towards the end of the snow event. This means that blowing and drifting of any snow that falls will cause a lot of issues Thursday and Thursday Night into Early Friday.
- With the exception of a light snow shower or flurry it will be a dry and very cold weekend.
- It could be a dangerous cold event this weekend. The forecast highs on Friday and Saturday will more than likely be under 20 with lows in the single digits, or colder depending on the snow-cover situation.

A few posts back I posted a website which has cold weather safety tips. We will need to use those tonight, Tuesday Night, and especially this upcoming weekend.

Jan 4th

This is a low confidence forecast for the winter weather event. On who gets snow and how much will depend on the H5 low. Several of the recent runs have trended north with this feature, this is a potential concern as the moisture and dynamics would go north along with it leaving most of West KY high and dry. Right now there's is still potential for a 1-3 inch event for parts of NW KY, but it is hanging by a thread 3 days out. Lets see what the 12Z GFS and Euro do with this system at least the 12Z Nam is trying to trend south.

Cold Weather Safety link

http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/pdf/cold_guide.pdf

Jan 3 outlook

Happy 2010

Happy 2010.

- Strong and long-lasting cold is coming. Not below zero cold, but very long lasting. Some areas may not go above 32 in excess of six days or even longer.