Winds that pierce

Some Updates

- 1 to 3 south of the West KY Parkway. 2 to 4 north of the West KY Parkway.
- Blowing and drifting of the snow is likely even with only minor amounts this can be a major travel issue. Wind gusts up to 25-30MPH possible.
- Wind Chills start to drop Thursday Afternoon at the end of the heavier snow to around below zero.
- A moisture starved clipper system may bring an additional dusting to an inch across parts of West KY and Mid TN later Friday.

The Morning Update

Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in the effect for a winter storm that is expected to strike from wee morning hours of Thursday into the afternoon. Blowing snow could remain a threat even into Thursday Night. So far expect 2 to 3 in the advisory area, and 3 to 4 in the warning area with locally more if any higher bands show up.

West KY map of the Jan 7th event

The Pink is 2 to 3. Gray is 3 to 4. The models are having issues with precipitation. Still confident in some snow, and extreme cold. How much is still up in the air 24 to 36 hours away though.

First Decade, First Month, and Seventh Day

WINTER STORM THOUGHTS

Impacts

• 3 to 5 inches of snow is possible across all of Western Kentucky. 2 to 4 with local amounts around 5 is possible across Middle Tennessee as well. This will be more of a dry and powdery snow as snow ratios will hang around the 14:1-18:1 range with even isolated 20:1 ratios can't be ruled out.
  
• Blowing and drifting of snow especially during the day Thursday and into the night will be an issue.
  
• The cold ground temperatures due to being days without getting above freezing will allow more hazardous travel and road conditions
• The main roads even will have problems because of the cold ground temperatures. Some Secondary roads may have near impossible travel conditions in the height of this even.
• Major Cold Wave is expected afterwards starting later Thursday and though the weekend. Lows below zero and windchills in the -5 to -15 range cannot be ruled out. This could be a very life threatening, and dangerous event so be ready for it.
  

Timing

• I posted a map at the top of the page. This map is for when most of the snow will fall from the sky this could be just the first part of the storm.
• Most of the snowfall and accumulation will occur during the morning rush hour, the morning rush hour will be your worst nightmare moderate to heavy snow showers could be an issue.
• The second part the blowing of drifting of the snow is expected starting mostly after most of the snow has fallen on late Thursday Afternoon into very early Friday Morning. This could hamper the travel as winds increase to 15 to 25MPH with gusts near 30 to 35MPH. Not quite blizzard conditions, but at some moments it could be near blizzard at brief intervals later Thursday.
• The cold could be very biting, and a high impact event. Highs barely in the Teen's for Friday and Saturday, with lows near or even below zero is possible. Wind Chills could be in the -5 to -15F range as well.

The Power Outage threat is low. The snow isn't wet, and is more of a dry snow. Some more brief power outage threats are possible with the cold because of the overuse of the heating systems overtaxing the transformers.

The Second Call map

My only concerns are what will the snow ratios be. Will they be 15:1, 20:1, 22:1 anyway this looks to be a dry powder of a snow, and not the wetter snows we usually see. Also a little concerns about the mini dry slot showing up in models in SW TN.
Overall the confidence of the models, and the trends for more snow are ...encouraging. Temperatures will not be a problem either with this cold air-mass in control.

I am biting on the threat.

The First Call.

My Concerns
- Possible Dry slot on the models in West TN could effect how much snow we get.
- It could take a little bit for precip to reach the ground. The atmosphere will have to saturate.

Good things
- Models have been increasing moisture in NW Mid TN and West KY
- Higher snow ratios could make for slightly higher amounts even in marginal amounts
- ULL could enhance snow amounts in some areas.
- In areas like Crossville, Oneida, Monterey, Jamestown and the higher elevations could pick up locally more due to additional lift.

Stone-Shattering Cold

There are a few updates compared to this morning. Both dealing with the cold number one, and than the snow chances.

- It will be cold tonight. ( Wind Chill Advisories exist in Paris TN area for early tomorrow morning for sub zero wind chills) This cold will continue Tuesday Night
- There is a chance that we might not have a high temperature above freezing until Tuesday of Next Week unless we can make it above freezing this Wednesday(there is only a small chance of this).
- The models are back to showing a little more moisture after last nights 00Z Nam/Gfs wanted to be dream crusher. So watch out for an accumulating snowfall all across West KY and even into Mid TN.
- The winds pick up on Thursday towards the end of the snow event. This means that blowing and drifting of any snow that falls will cause a lot of issues Thursday and Thursday Night into Early Friday.
- With the exception of a light snow shower or flurry it will be a dry and very cold weekend.
- It could be a dangerous cold event this weekend. The forecast highs on Friday and Saturday will more than likely be under 20 with lows in the single digits, or colder depending on the snow-cover situation.

A few posts back I posted a website which has cold weather safety tips. We will need to use those tonight, Tuesday Night, and especially this upcoming weekend.

Jan 4th

This is a low confidence forecast for the winter weather event. On who gets snow and how much will depend on the H5 low. Several of the recent runs have trended north with this feature, this is a potential concern as the moisture and dynamics would go north along with it leaving most of West KY high and dry. Right now there's is still potential for a 1-3 inch event for parts of NW KY, but it is hanging by a thread 3 days out. Lets see what the 12Z GFS and Euro do with this system at least the 12Z Nam is trying to trend south.

Cold Weather Safety link

http://www.bt.cdc.gov/disasters/winter/pdf/cold_guide.pdf

Jan 3 outlook

Happy 2010

Happy 2010.

- Strong and long-lasting cold is coming. Not below zero cold, but very long lasting. Some areas may not go above 32 in excess of six days or even longer.

Light SNow in NW KY

Up to a dusting is possible as far south as Providence to Calhoun KY. With up to isolated half inch to inch in the Henderson/Owensboro KY area. This shouldn't be a big issue, but some slick spots are possible.

The Grinch is in the winds

Merry Christmas!!!! Happy Hoildays!!!

The Grinch is in the winds today and tonight into Christmas Morning as a strong low pressure gradient system moves across Central Arkansas into Eastern Missouri the pressure gradient will tighten and the high winds will kick up. The Grinch Winds could gust upwareds to 50MPH+. Wind Advisories are in effect for West KY some areas may go to a High Wind Warning or come close for this event.

Christmas Lookout.

A impressive system is moving across the Central US. Our impacts won't be snow, but instead locally heavy rain and some Christmas Winds. Wind Gusts up to 49-50MPH are possible Christmas Eve though Christmas Morning. Hold on to your Christmas decorations.

Christmas Travels.

After freezing fog in parts of West KY caused some accidents. The fog clears and temps rise into the upper 40's.

- Temps into the 50's Tuesday than near or even exceeding 60 on the 23rd and Christmas Eve
- Cold Front comes though Christmas Eve night with temps in the 40's falling into the 30's for Christmas Day with rain sprinkles and a stray flurry.
- Locally heavy rain is possible, so are strong non-thunderstorm winds up to 40MPH. Not a strong wind event, but enough to push on some high profile cars, trucks, and vans on Christmas Eve travels, and blow over Christmas decorations.
- Rain shouldn't cause anytime big flooding although localized ponding on low water crossings is possible. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected east of US 45, and 2 to 3 inches of rain west of US 45.

For Traveling in TN and for KY

http://ww2.tdot.state.tn.us/tsw/smartmap.htm
http://511.ky.gov/

Time to play the game of clippers

With two weekend clippers and a noreaster. There may be enough cool air for Saturday and moisture for very light snowfall. With a dusting along the KY/TN border to upwards to an inch in Henderson and Owensboro

watch out

rain and snow showers mix Saturday and Sat. Night. Watch out around the 23rd-24th a system may form that could impact travel and hoilday plans in a negative way.

Dec 9

Wind and Water all over

Part I- Heavy Rain up to 2 inches of rain can fall in West KY. This won't cause big issues, but could cause ponding on low water crossings.

Part II- Strong Winds are coming so hold on to something. Wind gusts from the SW then W starting about midnight, and continuing into the morning and afternoon hours of Wednesday. This will be the story sustained winds of 25 to 30MPH with gusts up to 45 to 49MPH likely. Beware of driving if you drive in a high-profile vehicle. Also some isolated brief power outages and minor damage can't be ruled out.

Wind Advisory

High Wind Event possible

Light flurries and rain tonight. Rain and wind this week

Light flurries and rain expected today.

I am watching for the potential of some high end wind gusts from a huge system coming though the midwest the middle of this week. Wind Advisory Gusts may be reached.

Thanks to Google Earth

For Mid TN it is a quick map for the northern and central Plateau. For Southern Plateau I predict about an 1 to 2 inch from higher elevations of Grundy and Franklin County.

A few systems this week.

- First is the system for tomorrow and tomorrow night into early Thursday. This could be a decent rainmaker, have some chances of backside snow to but little to no accumulation is expected. Except for maybe a dusting to an half inch close to the Miss. River if one is lucky enough.

- Than if we get enough moisture and a very significant NW trend than West KY can be on the edge of another weathermaker later in the week.

Enjoy December
The most wonderful time of the year.

It is that wonderful time of the year.

HAPPY Meteorological Winter.