Hail, WInd poss in West KY

A line of thunderstorms will form in east arkansas and west tn. These storms could form hail some hail could be large. Damaging Winds could also be possible and amype an isoalted tornado esp to the south.

Isolated Hailers today and early tomm

Isolated hail storms may be possible in SW KY . If any form which the chances amy not be that great a hailstone can be of decent size slightly better in chance in Middle TN

Hailers poss tomm and sat

Poss Heavy Rains River Flooding may be huge.

This may not good news for people of West Ky esp in flood prone areas. Notice that a lot of what is presented will and can change but hopefully for the best.

Severeal Threads and issues to be though

Mar 14th-15th - a dynamic sytstem shows at least a poss large hail threat across West Ky. If the warm fornt moves closer a more varied and more sig severe weather scene is poss. Also heavy rain is an issue poss widespread 2-3 inch rainfall in west ky and mid tn.

Mar 16-19th- Easter is coming in. Spring is supposed to be a nice time all things are peaches and cream. That statement would be true except this is West Ky and we dont get out of spring with at least something of interest occuring. Spring roses will dampen by March showers and these showers can be very heavy poss if models are true the rain could pour down quick and fast. So this could be a poss flood event esp for River Flooding but Flash Flooding can't be ruled out at this juncture. Depending on exact low track severe wx may occur side by side with the flooding. Stay tuned esp if you live near rivers and flood prone areas.

Another I will start doing on blogspot is very alike what the NWS of B-ham does. Confidence Level stats. 1- means the threat is enough to be mentioned, but still at low confidence. 5 is very high confidence in the event I will try to post that on a diff section of the blogspot.

Right Now (West KY)
Severe Storms Fri Night- 1
Heavy Rain/Flooding March 16th-19th- 2
Strong Winds Fri- Early Sat- 1

Severe storms poss in SW Kentucky

A warm front and dynamic system is expected to set up. The exact track will matter in this localized possible severe event. Large Hail is a threat Friday Night, depending on far the warm front creeps north isoalted tornadoes and possibly a minor but locally intense damaging wind even is poss.

Minor River flooding occuring, more possible

Minor flooding is possible along the Ohio, Green rivers thu this week. Not a major flood event, but roads around the river may close depending on how high the crests will be.
There is growing concern that some areas of the Ohio River will not fall below flood stage by the weekend, as a heavy rain and poss flooding event could spring forward like the start of spring in the weekend thu the 18th and 19th of March.
Stay tuned for info on the local rivers and the potenial for them to flood more.

Is the threat for winter storms over?

After getting slammed by a sizable Winter Storm in West KY, TN and surrounding areas. You wonder since it is March and official spring equinox is soon that means the threat for winter storms is getting slim. Is it totally gone the answer is a NO, sometimes and some storms a big NOOO.

Besides Superstorm 1993 and this past March snowstorm other storms have hit in March some even after March 15th and this isn't all of them there are quite a few 1+ from March 15th after.

March 24th 1940- Nashville got 4.4 inches in this. This was Nashville's TN latest 4inch+ snowfall.
March 19-20th 1996- The name from Tn Weather Zone " The Room Service Storm" was appropriate during this storm that in several areas was worse in the storm this past weekend. As you had to call for Room Service because you didn't want to even try to venture outside. Parts of West Ky east of the Lakes and TN received 8 to 12 inches of wet snow that drifted 6 to 10 feet deep.
April 13th 2004- This surprise storm is a perfect storm of what the world of meteorology can bring you. 4.5 inches of snow was reported in Southern Muhlenberg County
April 25th 1910- Latest freeze and also the absolute latest measurable snowfall both occurred temps fell below freezing and 1.5 inches of Ice Crystals clumped together in Nashville (In my minds the Winter Storm in KY and TN isn't 100% over till April 25th is a saying I like to believe in.)
April 18th 1983- Paduach and West Ky got some decent snow on this date latest snowfall in Paduach and Evansville.

Unoffical Snow Amounts courtesy of NWS

WESTERN KENTUCKY: BALLARD ...2 CALDWELL ...6 CALLOWAY ...5 CARLISLE ...4 CHRISTIAN ...7 CRITTENDEN ...2 DAVIESS ...6 FULTON ...2 GRAVES ...3 HICKMAN ...2 HENDERSON ...6 HOPKINS ...6 LYON ...6 MARSHALL ...4 MCCRACKEN ...2 MCLEAN ...7 MUHLENBERG ...10 TODD ...8 TRIGG ...5 UNION ...6 WEBSTER ...7

This are just average for the county. Since the storm is so varied there is some areas in the individual counties that picked up more or less. EX: Morton's Gap in Hopkins County picked up 7.5 inches of snow while other areas of Hopkins county only got 4 to 5 so it averaged to 6 inches. In Christian County Hopkinsville got 5 to 5.5 inches of Snow while just north of town they got 7.5 inches and in a small village of Gracey between Cadiz and Hopkinsville got 8 inches.

Snow Ice Cream takes good

Snow cream tastes good you sohuld try it by the end of the day before it melts and freezes.

Widespread 10 inches in some local areas in West KY too. Several areas east of the lakes got 4-10 inches. While there was more 2.5-5 inch amounts west of the lakes and some local totals even more.

After the Snowstorm

I got a very pretty 5.5 inches of snow on the ground. Changes from a few miles just to my north it is a little over 7 inches. due to banding but some areas in West KY picked up very local 9 to 10 inches. Houston County TN picked up a foot of snow with 3 foot drifts.

Winter Weather Stone Update

There are two areas of concern this morning thu lunch hour. That is occuring in West KY and NW Mid TN.1) There is band of mostly sleet with some snow appaering to form and even backbuild from Ashland City to Clarksville to PEmbroke to Greenville Into Owensburo. Mosto f this south of West kY parkway is sleet but mostly snow north. This is one of the bands were talking aobut so we need to watch this band closely.

2) Is a blob with some banding of what is snow is in apporaching West ky it is already coming down in Ballard County and towards West Paduach. This will slowly shift into the east and eventually all this moisture will effect West KY and MID TN. Zero visibity and brief near whiteouts could be poss. with this blob as it will thu 11am effect mostly Paduach to Uniontown KY north in the few hours. Then shift more to include all of West KY and into TN as the day progesses and we approach evening hours.

Still at the end of the night and tomm morning widespread 4-8 inch snowfall shoudl be poss with locally 10 in a snowband.

Stone Cold March Storm

This is a no Joke Storm.

THIS STORM COULD BE VERY SIG. UNNECCESARY TRAVEL TOMM MORNING THU SAT MORNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED Across a good deal of KEntucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio and other states. Here in West KY the entire western bluegrass is in trouble pretty much everybody could see 3-4 inches of snow. The snow love is snow bands and poss. thunder snow that is how amounts of snow of 8-12 inches is poss. WITH STRONG WINDS NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN WEST KY AND SOME COMMUNTIES COULD BE SHUT DOWN FOR AS MUCH AS 24 to 48 HOURS. Right now the heaviest snow appaers to be falling from a Henderson KY to Clarksville TN area any shift in track of the low can shift it.

You have tonight go to the grocery go get enough goods to last 2-3 days. Dollar Store, Freds, Walgreens, Wal- Mart, K- Mart, the Bomb Shelter, anywhere with good food for 48 hours.

Prepaare for the Near Blizzard conditions, poss Thundersnow, travel gwtting halted even on I-24, West Ky, Jackson, Pennryle Parkways, main roads may recieve snow drifts less travel roads could get drifted shut with drifts as high as several feet deep.

Stay tuned to NWS, Blogpsot and bloggers on the fav links, News Stations, Radio, Newspaper you need to be aware of a big time March snowstorm.

Out like Stone

Models see to be out like stone esp the GFS. NAM is consistent and showing the consistent NW trend with this NW trend my last call map predicting snowed in nation could be inaccuarate.

Widespread 2-6 snow tonight-sat

Widspread 2=6 inch snowfall wist isolated 8-12 inch is possible somewhere in west ky

Winter Storm Huge Snow Maker

This could produce the widespread snow fall and heavy snow banding that only occurs in classical March Events. Classical is a strong word and this is gonna to be a gigantic snow maker. Everyone in West KY can see at least 4 inches of snow a widespread snow event wasnt seen like this since 2004. Some snow bands locations can pick up outlandish snowfall and have their jaws drop like in 2004. Local snow bands could form over 8 inches of white stuff on the ground. I'm am not joking either a classic APPALACHIAN RUNNER track will track effect and nail West KY or it should. Beware this system could have bust potential if it comes too far NW.

Severe wx awareness May 2003 5 years back

This is such a big event known as the 11 days of the May or the 2003 tornado fest. Several tornadoes occured in both Tornado and Dixie Alley and even as far north as the northest most NWS offices in the centrla and eastern areas had a event and sometimes 4 to track and survey in thier areas.
This following list is tornadoes that effected the West KY and Middle Tn areas only.
May 4th (the most proflic day of this sequence and a top 10 event in number of tornaodes in West KY and Mid TN)
Overall- With the left exit jet and a strong low along with ample May instabity a recipe for diaster was presented. At first SPC issued a slight and then a MDT risk for West KY and Mid TN. At the end the final outlook issued was a high risk in far west Ky and MDT risk for the rest of the area.
The Hailers (Historic West KY hailstorms) Before we can even get to tornadoes two supercells formed out of the blue in West KY. One tracked from SE Missouri and into Ballard County this storm caused 30- 40 Million dolalrsi n Hail damage and some injuries as it tracked into Lone Oak the hail became the size of tennis balls. Cars, Trees, builings, some cars in garages got extensively damaged. Roofs had to be replaced and multiple car insurance claims were filed. Then it moved into Livingston then finally into Marshall county. This is where the biggest hail feel it was baseball sized. Roof were damaged and every car in the hailstorms path was damaged. There are hail pictures and more information in this section. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/storm/may4_03/hail.php
The Twisters:
Start with West KYSupercell 1- The Murray area F-2 Tornado. This supercell formed in Graves County then moved into Calloway COunty. Around 10:30pm this storm formed the biggest event an F2 torndo that started from 3 miles Northeast of Murray then moved a mile before ending. This caused enough for $350,000 dollars of damage several barns damaged and destroyed with minor to moderate damage. Many trees got split opened. Later on downbursts from 65 to as high as 85mph occured in Graves and Calloway County.
Supercell 2- ( the long one from Northeast corner of Ballard COunty to St. Joseph in SW daviess county) This produced 10 of the 11 tornadoesi n this outbreak with just this one supercell. Started in Ballard COunty into Mcracken into SOuth IL but came out around Livingston COunty some minor to moderate damge was reported in Livingston County some F1 damage occured as the cell apporached Marion the tornadoes did stop in Marion area then a tornado touched down severla miles east of Marion KY. The most damage occured as it approached Webster COunty several areas of damage as 3 tornadoes poped up and bounced up and down producing f-1 and f-2 damage in the city of Clay. Some decent damge was done as this storm moved on to St. Joseph KY area.
Mid TN
Nine Tornadoes occured in the Mid TN area. One deadly tornado occured just to the west in the jackson TN area as a F4 followed by a F3 went though the Jackson TN area then weakened into Lexington TN area.
One main storm formed in Stewart COunty then the supercell produced the strongest tornado of the day in Mid TN. A F2 in Clarksville TN area in SOuthern Montgomery area causing heavy damage to several homes. This strong but weaken to a F1 ias it did heavy damage to a factory in the Cross Plains TN area.
Also tornadoes touched down breifly in Thompson Station and La Vergne Tn areas.
May 5th
A high risk but wasn't as sinister as May 4th. A f0 tornado touched down near Kingston Springs TN. The biggest tornado of the day touched down in Petersburg Tn area in Lincoln COunty along highway 431 a two were heavily damaged to destroyed and rated a high end F-1
Several hail reports of quarter size and damaging winds did occur in South West Ky and Mid TN
May 6th
In Mid Tn serious flooding and flash flooding occured in Middle TN. ANother high shear day getting in touch with May heat occured.
West KY got this one better. Not as sig as the deadly tornado in SOuth Illnois. Wickliffe Ky got the strongest tornado a F2 tornado touched down just west and south of Wickliffe and caused a lot of tree damage. This storm produced a f1 tornado south of paduach and a long string of tornadoes into Graves and Marshall County KY
A F1 formed into south Graves County from Hickman county
May 11th
This was the last tornado day was from 1-4am May 11th,
Sacramento KY tornado This tornado was formed in supercell and start of a big squall line event. This tornado started in the southern outskirts of Sacramento then moved into town and in the eastern side of town. Several homes damaged and a moblie home was diensembled. This tornado was rated an F03 and 2 minor injuries occured.
Middle TN (Nashville area F1 and Northern Rutherford County F3)This tornado moved tohugh Nashville and to Gallatin during house damage and tree damage.
A tornado in Northern Rutherford COutny destroyed a 2 story house.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/ss051103.htmhttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/surveys/ss050503.htm

T-storm High Wind and TOrnado Warning review

Moblie homes are not safe places to bein severe storms or high windsanytime you are under a tornado, t-storm, or high wind warning you need to get out of your moblie home.

What is a Tornado, Thunderstorm, and High WInd Warning you will be suprised that some people don't know the answer?
Tornado Warning- A tornado is likely or imminent or could already be forming in your area. There are two types of tornado warnings plus the very rare Tornado Emergancy which means a " Powerful tornado is about to take a direct hit on a community.
1) Doppler Indicated- Means that strong enough rotation was present enough for a possibile tornado that could form. Or a tornado may be occuring on the ground and not reported. If not the tornado hail, strong winds sometimes as much as 120MPH can possible, so take cover, and when in doubt take cover.

2) Tornado Confirmation Warning- This bascially means that a tornado has been reported and you need to take cover no if's and or but's on that.Severe Thunderstorm Warning- This is issued when a storm is capable of becoming severe. This storm could produce and has potenial to produce at least penny sized hail and/or damaging winds in excess of 58MPH. Beware that some damging winds can sometimes cause as much damage as a small and weaker tornado. Take shelter in a sturdy building and abandon moblie homes.

High Wind Warning- This means that gusts this includes non-thudnerstorm gusts can and has the ablity to gust 58mph and excess. These non thunderstorm winds can cause as much damage as thier thunderstorm counterparts. These gusts can last a few hours. Hickman Ky was heavily damaged by non thunderstorm wind gusts on Jan 29th 2008. Take cover in a sturdy building during the duration of this event.Tihs defiantions are important to know.

Green River flooding

FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY1204 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE KY HAS ISSUED A FLOODWARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KENTUCKY...GREEN RIVER AT WOODBURYGREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTERAFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY...BUTLER...MUHLENBERG...OHIO...WARREN..PARTS OF THE GREEN RIVER BASIN HAVE SEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESSOF THREE INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THESE RAINS HAVE CAUSEDRAPID RISES ON PARTS OF THE GREEN RIVER.SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODING ROADS. THIS ISESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIOOR COMMERCIAL BROADCASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION. IF YOU ARE AFFECTEDBY THESE CRESTS TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ATWWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=LMK (ALL LOWER CASE).THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TUESDAY EVENING.KYC031-177-183-050504-/O.NEW.KLMK.FL.W.0023.080305T1708Z-080309T0100Z//RCHK2.1.ER.080305T1708Z.080307T0000Z.080308T1900Z.NO/1204 PM EST TUE MAR 04 2008THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE KY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WARNING FORTHE GREEN RIVER AT ROCHESTER.* FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY EVENING.* AT 12:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.3 FEET.* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.* FLOOD STAGE IS 17.0 FEET.* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY WEDNESDAY EARLY AFTERNOON ANDCONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 18.8 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RIVERWILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY SATURDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.* IMPACT...AT 17.0 FEET...A FEW ROADS NEAR RIVER FLOOD. FERRY IS SHUTDOWN.* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 18.8FEET ON FEB 7 1997.$$--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Flood WarningFLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KENTUCKY918 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH, KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED AFLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN KENTUCKY...GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE AFFECTING MUHLENBERG COUNTYGREEN RIVER AT CALHOUN AFFECTING MCLEAN AND WEBSTER COUNTIES.HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS CAUSED RIVER LEVELS TORISE.SAFETY MESSAGE...NEVER DRIVE CARS...TRUCKS OR SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES THROUGH FLOODEDAREAS. THE WATER MAY BE TOO DEEP TO ALLOW SAFE PASSAGE. NEVER ALLOWCHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOOD WATERS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHERRADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE UPDATEDFORECASTS.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ATHTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=PAH /LOWER CASE/KYC177-051918-/O.NEW.KPAH.FL.W.0024.080304T1644Z-000000T0000Z//PRDK2.2.ER.080304T1644Z.080306T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/918 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH, KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WARNING FORTHE GREEN RIVER AT PARADISE.* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.* AT 7:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 376.1 FEET.* MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST.* FLOOD STAGE IS 380.0 FEET.* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUETO RISE TO NEAR 387.2 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING.$$

Wacky Weather Update

few sig events have occured
Severe threat- Around the Lawrenceburg isoalted tornado or wind is possible.
Flood Event- Flooding of low lands and rivers is coming true reportso f ponding have just begun and flooding is imminent in West Ky and Parts of the TN river counties of MId TN. River flloodign wil lbe big in the next few days.
Wind event- WInd gusts of 20 to 40mph may continue this wind threat has been deadly in Mid TN
WInter Threat- This quick cold front push has caused the chance for some winter pickup in parts of West KY mostly dusting to an inch. Changeover in West KY could be poss in the next few hours.

2-5 inches widespread of rain is expected in West KY isolated amounts of 4 to 6 inches may be poss in isolated areas.

Temps falling heavy rain coming

Tempartures are 39 at Henderson and 54 in Hopkinsville quite the temaprture gradient the cold front looks like it may slow down. The only severe threat is in Mid TN south of I-40 some storms could form as dewpoints raise into the mid to upper 50's and increabile shear comes along not too sig but enough. Strong winds and steady moderate to heavy rain is possiblie 2-4 inches event wise is not off the counter. Already strong winds have taken a life in Mid TN so be careful.

Less Severe heavy rain/river flooding in West KY

There is a heavy rain bands forming from Arkansas and Missouri and into West KY. Now heavy rain and possible thudnerstorms though not severe will move though that area of west ky possible flash flood or flood warnings may be possible in this area so beware. Turn around and dont drown

Severe storms poss today and tonight

Some storms are possible across all of west ky and could be severe. ESp if a squall line forms right now the sun is shinhg so that doesnt help. Isolated tornados with poss damging winds with some hail cant be ruled out today and tonight mostly from a 4:30-11pm time frame.

TN Call Map

The green is basically strong to severe with isolated hail maybe a isolated tornado poss with strong gusty wind poss some damaging wind. This is a slight risk type event Most all of West KY can be involved in this to.
The Maroon Red is where the most sig weather in TN will be More likely to occur may be extended into the west or northwest. A little cape is involved with nasty shear so damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes depending exactly on low track are possible and any tornadoes that form can be damaging and poss strong in this strong sheared atmosphere.

Guys in Mid and Deep South keep those noaa's ready because to me this seems like a 6-Midnight event in Western half of Mid TN and 9pm-4am in the Eastern Half of Middle TN. Those times are estimates. For West KY 5pm-11pm seems right.

Severe weather tomm

Severe weather is poss in West KY from a Paduach to Calhoun KY south. Severe weather at least isoalted could be poss across all of west ky the biggest chance is in SW part of West KY. Including damging winds, hail, and a isolated tornado or two.

Flooding is a problem a flood watch is in effect for Monday and Monday Night River Flooding will be a big issue next week.

A dusting to poss up to 1 or 2 inches is poss in esp far west ky Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Slight Risk for Jackson Purchase

A slight risk of severe weather is in store for the jackson purchase area. The models are trending more severe heavy rain, ponding of roads, hail, damaging winds are possible.

The Jury may well maype it is a Hung Jury

The models are very confusing to say the least.

Anyway to a slight severe threat to heavy snow. One thing is for sure some Heavy Rain poss. 2-4 inches is possible Sun-Mon Night.

So a flood watch is probably possible to likely soon so stay tuned.

March starts like a Lion

There is a lot of factors and storms and events to go into to from Sunday thu Thursday/Friday. Lets break it down.

Round 1-(Sun Night-Mon Night) This is a heavy rain event a strong thunderstorm may be poss. mostly south of west ky though. Widespread rain amounts as much as 2-4 inches with localized 4-5 inch rain amounts are poss. in West KY. This could led to flooding issues esp on rivers and this will increase the levels of the rivers.

Round 2- (Mon Night- Early Tues Evening) This could get wintry guys and gals. As heavy snow from another system progged from MS moving into North AL and as far west as Mid TN this track of the low is huge in determining where the biggest snowfall is and this could possibliy be several inches.

Round 3- (Thurs/Fri) ANother wintry storm with potenial for a big rain/snow event. Could be a nor easter could be like Dec 15th and cause bust for Mid TN to NYC. This could bang and cause several inches and a big March snowstorm something big along with Tuesday to watch.

SO high winds, heavy rain and poss river and street flooding and big snow events dot all of next week.

Iti s also KY's severe weather awareness week.