Severe Threat Tuesday Evening

The concern is there for a pretty intense line of severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night. This will be a low instability but high shear event, and a lot of notable severe winter weather events have occurred in this setup(1/18/96,1/29/08,2/29/12). This line of thunderstorms could produce widespread damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes. Due to the wind energy a few storms could gust in excess of 70MPH. There are still uncertainties in the threat. Some models want to form a secondary low, or pieces of energy which could increase the damaging wind and even tornado threat even further. Timing is also something that is not in agreement. Some of the faster models start the threat for the Purchase in the late afternoon/dusk period, while others wait till 10-11pm to have the threat enter Western KY. To take the middle route I will go with a 6pm-Midnight timeframe for Western KY and Western Middle TN(Dover,Parsons,Camden TN areas). Also because the UK@Ole Miss game is on at that time make sure that all UK fans watching that game have a warning source, so they can receive the warning while the game is on.