I want to give thanks to all the Emergency Management personal, National Weather Service/SPC personal, and the local skywarn spotter and weather watcher groups for all the hard work during last nights severe weather outbreak. A prepared community is a safer community.

Post storm

In Western KY there are no reports of serious injuries or deaths. In both Western KY and Middle TN there will be trees and powerlines across the road. If you a powerline across the road stay away from that, and do not try and cross the downed powerline or mess with the downed powerline.

Timeline

Tornado Watches go till 4am for Western KY.
Timeline:
Wickliffe to Hickman KY: 10:15pm
Paducah to Mayfield KY: 10:45pm
Murray to Uniontown KY: 11:15pm
Henderson to Cadiz KY to Paris TN: 11:45pm
Hopkinsville to Owensboro KY to Tennessee Ridge TN: 12:15am

Updated map

Click to enlarge

Severe threat

. Anywhere in Western KY and Middle TN needs to watch out for tonight and early tomorrow morning. An extensive squall line/perhapes even serial derecho is expected tonight. Bow echos and supercells will be present along this line. Development out ahead of the line cannot be ruled out. Anyone in a mobile homes needs to stay the night somewhere else as these homes can be tossed around in 80+MPH winds. The wind damage will likely be widespread across the area tonight as 60-80MPH(locally up to 100MPH winds may occur) due to the intense shear. Tornadoes are a threat as well. The EF-2 Tornado that hit the industrial park in Hopkinsville on 4/4/2011 and the Parsons TN EF-2 that hit on 2/24/2011 are examples of tornadoes that can form in squall lines. This shows that we cannot rule out a tornadoes in events like this. Keep NOAA Radios and any other sources charged up and battery powered and ready to go. I will post an updated map by 4pm.

Morning Update

Everyone make sure you have a source of warning for tonight. The threat is still a squall line with damaging winds in excess of 60MPH(with 70+MPH) in the strongest storms. Also there is a tornado threat due to the intense wind shear for any storms along the line, or anything that forms out ahead of the line. NOAA Weather Radios are great to have. Thinking about 8pm-11pm along the MS. River into the Purchase area. 11pm-1:30am around LBL, and Midnight-3am for the Hopkinsville KY and Clarksville TN area.

Still the confidence levels are:
Severe Storms: 3 out of 5(this may increase)
Non-Thunderstorm Winds: 3 out of 5

The Shining Update

My latest thoughts of the severe threat Tuesday Morning into Wednesday Morning. My thoughts are still of a squall line that will march across the area Tuesday Night(crossing Western KY at around 8:30pm-11pm), and moving across eastward towards daybreak(ending up in the Nashville TN around the 2am-5am timeframe), before clearing the Plateau by lunch time Wednesday. The greatest threat of tornadoes and widespread 75+MPH winds will be from between Memphis TN and Shreveport LA, but still Western KY is still in a risk of severe weather with 45-65MPH(locally 70-75MPH cannot be ruled out) winds being likely along the line. Remember that severe winds are classified as those that contain at least 58MPH winds. With the high amount of wind shear present you still cannot rule out a few isolated tornadoes in the line of storms. All in all be aware of the severe threat and have a weather source to wake you up at night if you severe weather threat strikes. Remember better safe than sorry.

The thoughts from the National Weather Service

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=special+weather+statement
Thoughts from the NWS of Paducah.

Update

There is still a slight risk of severe weather for Western KY and far Western Middle TN tomorrow night, and for areas south and east of Nashville during the day Wednesday. Even though this is just a slight risk I still think the potential for a widespread damaging wind event with the squall line is there, along with an isolated tornado threat. How unstable we get, and the timing of some of the features will be very important in determining the ultimate severity of the event.

Severe Threat Tuesday Evening

The concern is there for a pretty intense line of severe thunderstorms Tuesday Night. This will be a low instability but high shear event, and a lot of notable severe winter weather events have occurred in this setup(1/18/96,1/29/08,2/29/12). This line of thunderstorms could produce widespread damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes. Due to the wind energy a few storms could gust in excess of 70MPH. There are still uncertainties in the threat. Some models want to form a secondary low, or pieces of energy which could increase the damaging wind and even tornado threat even further. Timing is also something that is not in agreement. Some of the faster models start the threat for the Purchase in the late afternoon/dusk period, while others wait till 10-11pm to have the threat enter Western KY. To take the middle route I will go with a 6pm-Midnight timeframe for Western KY and Western Middle TN(Dover,Parsons,Camden TN areas). Also because the UK@Ole Miss game is on at that time make sure that all UK fans watching that game have a warning source, so they can receive the warning while the game is on.

From Winter WX to Severe WX

A cool weather season/squall line severe thunderstorm event is possible Tuesday Night through the wee morning hours of Wednesday in Western KY and NW Middle TN.  This is something to watch especially since it may be an nocturnal threat.

Some icing issues

In Western KY despite the limited precipitation travel problems could still develop tonight and tomorrow. In Northwestern KY and the Purchase we are probably looking at a dusting to less than half inch of snow and sleet. Along the KY/TN border there may be a little bit more precipitation, but also more in the form of freezing rain and sleet. Ice accumulation of a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch are possible along the KY/TN border. Remember that even though precipitation values will be light, due to cold ground surfaces there still may be travel issues, and any wintry precip will form slick spots especially on bridges and overpasses.

Update

There are reports of snow/sleet mix with some wrecks in the Paducah/Benton KY area.

Ice is starting to spread across the KY/TN border into Kentucky. Main and well traveled roads during this event should be okay for the most part because the temps are close to freezing. It will be the bridges, the overpasses, on and off ramps, and secondary roads that are on locally geological high places that will be the major problem spots in the area.

Winter Storm Warning for Todd County

Winter Storm Warning for Todd County. 1/4 inch of ice possible in Southern Todd County. This 1/4 zone could extend from Oak Grove to Elkton to even Bowling Green KY.

Wintry Mix Blues

Areas in southwestern KY and from in Middle TN west of an Lafayette to Lynchburg TN line(not including the Ice Storm Warning) are under a Winter WX Advisory. These areas can see freezing drizzle or freezing rain changing to rain overnight. Ice accumulations will range from a few hundredths of an inch to .24 inches. This amount of ice is still enough to coat elevated surfaces and make elevated roads, overpasses, and bridges difficult to travel on. Cities included are Murray, Fulton, Madisonville, Greenville, Hopkinsville, Bowling Green, Clarksville TN, Ashland City TN, Gallatin TN, Nashville TN, Fairview/Franklin/Brentwood TN, Columbia TN, Lawrenceburg TN, Lebanon TN, and Murfressboro TN and surrounding areas of those cities.

That storm in Union County moving into NW Henderson County has a history of damage.

Update and PAH link

Remember to use this link for updated warnings and flooding reports. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
If you see water over a roadway and you cannot see the roadway underneath do not cross it.

Paducah KY Tornado Warning

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ005&warncounty=KYC145&firewxzone=KYZ005&local_place1&product1=Tornado+Warning
Tornado Warning for McCracken and far SW Livingston County

Weekend storm

The threat for localized heavy rain and maybe is still there, but due to the rain being spread out over a few days I think there could be some localized flooding in areas where heavier bands track, but overall I'm not expected a widespread high-inpact flooding event. There may be an isolated strong to severe storm tonight and during the weekend system, but don't expect widespread severe weather. We do need to watch the backend of this system from Sunday Night-Tuesday there may be some freezing rain mixing in at times.