Update about the Winter

Since Winter Awareness Week has passed, there is some updates to winter to address.

* The La Nina is still raging, but has warmed a bit. This is interesting, because this may not be the super-strong La Nina we thought it to be. Still a -1.3C to -1.6C seems to be a reasonable forecast, so a moderate, or low end strong.

* This means that La Nina will have a big impact, but may not dominate the pattern. Also there has been evidence of a somewhat stronger than normal subtropical jet then normal for a La Nina. If this continues it could link up with an active Northern Jet, and form strong storms.

* There will be a Pacific Firehouse at times this winter. Times of zonal flow, and boring weather will be common, but also spurts of extreme weather, over a short period of time seems reasonable. The type of pattern where you can get thunderstorms, snow, and flood events in a span of a week.

* The NAO could average slightly negative, this will show up at times and prevent a very warm winter, despite the La Nina, and Pacific Firehose.

* The best chances for Winter Weather in West KY, are during December(not totally sold on this), and from Valentines Day to Saint Patrick's day(a blockbuster storm is possible here).

* Severe Storms/Tornadoes watch out for these things, even during the winter. Don't be surprised if we have a severe weather outbreak or two during the Dec-Feb period.