A Winter 2010-11 Look

Pretty soon, in just a little over a month we will be in Meteorological Winter, and in a little over two months Winter Solstice/Christmas. It is never too early to think about winter. The last three winters were quite remembered across Western Kentucky.
* 2007-2008 was a roller-coaster ride all the way though, which featured two ice storms, a cool season Serial Derecho event, a March blizzard, and the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak, and a Jan. Tornado in Southeast Wisconsion.
* 2008-2009 featured a historic January Ice Storm, along with a High Wind event two weeks later.
* 2009-2010 looked like one of our old time cold, snowy, and classic winters.
It is too early to tell exactly what this winter will hold, but there are certain patterns, and signals out there that could give a clue.
* A -PDO phase is sure to impact that winter, in which the North Pacific is cooler than normal, this is typically a long range cycle that typically goes in 30 year increments.
* A pretty strong La Nina is developing, this will also have big impacts on the winter. Last year we had a Strong El Nino, and a lot of times a Strong El Nino, can lead to a Strong La Nina the following year(73-74,88-89,98-99, etc.) It is too early to tell it's exact stregth, but there is a chance that it the ONI Tri-Monthly peak rating, could be higher than -1.7C.
* A Calm Solar period, and potential for a -NAO at times during the winter can also be key factors.

Things to Look For this Winter
- Strong Northern Branch of the Jet Stream
- Strong Southeast Ridge that could build several times
over the winter
- Strong Pacfic Jet
- A potential for a "Battleground zone" in Western Kentucky and surrounding
areas, where they all come together.
- This battleground zone could lead to the following.
* Rapid and Sudden Temperature Swings
* Above Average Ice Threat
* Above Average Winter time Severe Storm Threat
* Above Average Precipitation
* Above Average Temperatures
* Average to Below Average Snowfall, but potential(far from certain)
for a good snowstorm/blizzard type in Late Feb-into March.

Temperature predictions are on the top.

Edit: for analogs, and just for fun Temp. predictions for nearby cities of (Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, Indianapolis)

Main Analogs: 73-74, 75-76, 99-00, 07-08
Secondary Analogs: 16-17, 49-50, 55-56, 64-65, 88-89,98-99
- For La Nina strength: 73-74,75-76,99-00,49-50 are good matches
- For Negative PDO: 55-56, 73-74, 07-08 are good matches
- For odd Pacific configurations: 75-76, 99-00 are good matches
- For low sun spot cycle periods: 73-74, 75-76, 07-08
- The Nina's of the 50's have some good pattern matches.
- You could have a -NAO period like Jan 2000 in this winter as well.


Memphis TN:
Dec: +1.0F
Jan: +2.1F
Feb: +3.5F

Nashville TN:
Dec: +0.2F
Jan: +2.5F
Feb: +3.5F

Louisville KY:
Dec: Average
Jan: +1.1F
Feb: +2.5F

Indianapolis IN:
Dec: -0.5F
Jan: +0.2F
Feb: +1.5F

Overall Summer to Fall Patterns, La Nina, -PDO, long range models, and advice for those who know more than I do, where used in this long range forecast.