Highs in the mid to upper 60's, low's around 40.

Clear Weather, Elevated wildfire Danger, and Happy Halloween/

Christian County EF0 Tornado

000
ABUS34 KPAH 280207 CCA
PNSPAH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
904 PM CDT WED OCTOBER 27 2010

...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

THE FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR THE DAMAGE THAT
OCCURRED IN CHRISTIAN COUNTY ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 26TH 2010.

* EVENT DATE: TUESDAY OCTOBER 26 2010

* EVENT TIME: 952 AM CDT

* EVENT TYPE: EF0 TORNADO

* EVENT LOCATION: 12 MILES SOUTH OF HOPKINSVILLE OR 2.5 MILES
 SOUTH OF PEMBROKE....FROM JUST NORTH OF ANDERSON RD TO NEAR
 THE JUNCTION OF HIGHWAY 1453 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 41

* PEAK WIND:  EST 70 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES (INTERMITTENT)

* PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS

* INJURIES: NONE

* FATALITIES: NONE

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE: SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...TREE DOWN...TIN
 DAMAGE TO A COUPLE OF BARNS.

$$

SHANKLIN

Todd County EF0 Tornado

000
ABUS34 KPAH 280158 CCA
PNSPAH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
858 PM CDT WED OCTOBER 27 2010

...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR TODD COUNTY IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

THE FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR THE DAMAGE THAT
OCCURRED IN TODD COUNTY ON THE MORNING OF OCTOBER 26TH 2010.

* EVENT DATE: TUESDAY OCTOBER 26 2010

* EVENT TIME: 958 AM CDT

* EVENT TYPE: EF0 TORNADO

* EVENT LOCATION: 3 MILES NORTH OF TRENTON...ALONG HIGHWAY 475

* PEAK WIND:  EST 65 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 1/4 MILE

* PATH WIDTH: 30 YARDS

* INJURIES: NONE KNOWN

* FATALITIES: NONE KNOWN

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE: RECREATIONAL EQUIPMENT BLOWN FROM BACK YARD OF
HOME. PIECES OF TIN BLOWN OFF BARN ROOF.

$$

SHANKLIN

Muhlenberg County EF0

000
ABUS34 KPAH 272245 CCA
PNSPAH

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
542 PM CDT WED OCTOBER 27 2010

...PRELIMINARY DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR MUHLENBERG COUNTY KENTUCKY...

THE FOLLOWING IS A PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR THE DAMAGE THAT
OCCURRED IN MUHLENBERG COUNTY ON OCTOBER 26TH 2010.

* EVENT DATE: TUESDAY OCTOBER 26 2010

* EVENT TIME: 920 AM - 921 AM CDT

* EVENT TYPE: EF0 TORNADO

* EVENT LOCATION: INTERSECTION OF US HWY 601 AND LANDFILL RD.

* PEAK WIND:  EST 65-70 MPH

* PATH LENGTH: 200 YARDS

* PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS (AVERAGE)

* INJURIES: NONE KNOWN

* FATALITIES: NONE KNOWN

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE: PATH NARROWS TO ABOUT 25 YARDS NEAR END OF
TRACK. AROUND 30 SMALL TREES WERE BROKEN OFF. NO WERE STRUCTURES IN
THE PATH OF THE TORNADO. OTHER TREE AND SHINGLE TYPE DAMAGE WAS
FOUND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF CENTRAL CITY...BUT THIS APPEARED TO BE
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE.

$$

HOOPER

Overview of Great Lake Cyclone Outbreak

To comment on the Far North TN, Kentucky, Ohio Valley Derecho/Squall Line. It may not of been as damaging overall as say 10/24/01 or 10/18/07. It was pretty ominous when it came though, you knew to get out of it's way. We may have some tornado damage in Hopkinsville, in Fulton County Kentucky a grain bin blew into a car. There are two unconfirmed tornadoes in Calloway and Muhlenberg County as well. Marshall County Kentucky has had some Non Thunderstorm and Thunderstorm Wind Damage.

Several funnel clouds/wall clouds with the line, and the individual storms further south that formed after the line went though Western Kentucky.

Our low bottomed in Minnesota to 956MB.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
Storm reports so far. Still some severe threat in East Mid TN(Lynchburg TN to Jamestown TN line eastward) for a little bit longer, but eventually should end.

- This was an active day of college for me.

Timing

Final Post before college

Timing: (this line will move to the East between 55 and 70MPH)
West Paducah to Clinton: 7:30am
Henderson to Lake Barkley Lodge: 8:30am
Owensboro to Hopkinsville: 9:00am
- Should clear Western KY by 10am then severe threat is over.

Non-Thunderstorm Wind gusts of 40 to 49MPH will continue a few hours after the storms have ended. They should subside by 2pm.

Here we go

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for:
Ballard County in Western Kentucky
... West Carlisle County in Western Kentucky
West Fulton County in Western Kentucky
West Hickman County in Western Kentucky
Far Northwest McCracken County in Western Kentucky
Till 7am

Public Severe Weather Outlook for today

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 261011
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-261800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

EASTERN ILLINOIS
INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES

A POWERFUL JET STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 175
MILES PER HOUR...WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AT THE SAME TIME...AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET
WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA
INTO WESTERN ONTARIO.

A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
FRONT ACCELERATES EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
TODAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE VERY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...AND INCREASING
MOISTURE SPREADING RAPIDLY NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST STATES...WILL
ALLOW THE THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO BANDS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

WHILE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY TODAY OVER THE OH AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...A MORE
LIMITED THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..CORFIDI.. 10/26/2010

$$

It begins

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0721.html

Tornado Watch for Western KY till Noon

Serial Derecho is likely

High Risk for Henderson/Owensboro North,
Moderate Risk pretty much elsewhere across Western KY. Slight Risk for
Middle TN. Serial Derecho is likely

Increased Concerns safety message

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=58951&source=0

Check out the link.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather for Fulton to Ledbetter KY line west tonight. (4:30am-7am) Then a Moderate Risk of Severe Weather for Northwest Kentucky, and a High End Slight Risk for the rest of West KY for tomorrow. See my previous posts for more details. High Wind gusts of 40 to 49MPH outside of thunderstorms may ...start to begin early tomorrow morning. All bad weather should end by 3pm.

Derecho Day could be coming

Click to enlarge.

Wind Advisory for tomorrow.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ017&warncounty=KYC047&firewxzone=KYZ017&local_place1=3+Miles+SSW+Hopkinsville+KY&product1=Wind+Advisory

Severe Weather could happen tomorrow

High Wind event is possible tomorrow. High Non Thunderstorm Wind gusts of 40 to 49MPH, A possible squall line/serial derecho event from North Alabama all the way to Michigan, and Southeast Ontario Canada. Stay tuned to local weather stations, and NOAA Weather radio throughout the day tom.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather today.

Click the picture for more details.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather today

Red Flag Warning for Western Kentucky

Confidence Level 4 out of 5.

Frost Advisory for West KY tonight.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=frost%20advisory

Lows down to 34 to 37 tonight in Western Kentucky

Fire Danger Thursday

Red Flag Warning for Henderson,Daviess,Logan,Warren,Butler,Simpson Counties in Western Kentucky, and many others in Central Kentucky. High Wildfire Danger in these areas so beware.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ018&warncounty=KYC101&firewxzone=KYZ018&local_place1=3+Miles+E+Henderson+KY&product1=Red+Flag+Warning
^^ Link to the Text^^

There is elevated fire danger elsewhere across Western Kentucky.

Elevated Fire Danger across Western KY today.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

Elevated Fire Danger today across Western Kentucky.

A Winter 2010-11 Look

Pretty soon, in just a little over a month we will be in Meteorological Winter, and in a little over two months Winter Solstice/Christmas. It is never too early to think about winter. The last three winters were quite remembered across Western Kentucky.
* 2007-2008 was a roller-coaster ride all the way though, which featured two ice storms, a cool season Serial Derecho event, a March blizzard, and the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak, and a Jan. Tornado in Southeast Wisconsion.
* 2008-2009 featured a historic January Ice Storm, along with a High Wind event two weeks later.
* 2009-2010 looked like one of our old time cold, snowy, and classic winters.
It is too early to tell exactly what this winter will hold, but there are certain patterns, and signals out there that could give a clue.
* A -PDO phase is sure to impact that winter, in which the North Pacific is cooler than normal, this is typically a long range cycle that typically goes in 30 year increments.
* A pretty strong La Nina is developing, this will also have big impacts on the winter. Last year we had a Strong El Nino, and a lot of times a Strong El Nino, can lead to a Strong La Nina the following year(73-74,88-89,98-99, etc.) It is too early to tell it's exact stregth, but there is a chance that it the ONI Tri-Monthly peak rating, could be higher than -1.7C.
* A Calm Solar period, and potential for a -NAO at times during the winter can also be key factors.

Things to Look For this Winter
- Strong Northern Branch of the Jet Stream
- Strong Southeast Ridge that could build several times
over the winter
- Strong Pacfic Jet
- A potential for a "Battleground zone" in Western Kentucky and surrounding
areas, where they all come together.
- This battleground zone could lead to the following.
* Rapid and Sudden Temperature Swings
* Above Average Ice Threat
* Above Average Winter time Severe Storm Threat
* Above Average Precipitation
* Above Average Temperatures
* Average to Below Average Snowfall, but potential(far from certain)
for a good snowstorm/blizzard type in Late Feb-into March.

Temperature predictions are on the top.

Edit: for analogs, and just for fun Temp. predictions for nearby cities of (Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, Indianapolis)

Main Analogs: 73-74, 75-76, 99-00, 07-08
Secondary Analogs: 16-17, 49-50, 55-56, 64-65, 88-89,98-99
- For La Nina strength: 73-74,75-76,99-00,49-50 are good matches
- For Negative PDO: 55-56, 73-74, 07-08 are good matches
- For odd Pacific configurations: 75-76, 99-00 are good matches
- For low sun spot cycle periods: 73-74, 75-76, 07-08
- The Nina's of the 50's have some good pattern matches.
- You could have a -NAO period like Jan 2000 in this winter as well.


Memphis TN:
Dec: +1.0F
Jan: +2.1F
Feb: +3.5F

Nashville TN:
Dec: +0.2F
Jan: +2.5F
Feb: +3.5F

Louisville KY:
Dec: Average
Jan: +1.1F
Feb: +2.5F

Indianapolis IN:
Dec: -0.5F
Jan: +0.2F
Feb: +1.5F

Overall Summer to Fall Patterns, La Nina, -PDO, long range models, and advice for those who know more than I do, where used in this long range forecast.

Nice day with temps. in the 70's. Fall colors are really starting to show as well.

some clouds and rain

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=58527&source=0

Some folks in Western Kentucky got something known as rain yesterday. Rain is a precipitation that falls from something called clouds. Many folks in Western Kentucky have yet to see clouds or rain in about 3 weeks, so it is just a review that what you saw yesterday in some areas was clouds and rain

Henderson KY is at 90 at this moment. Probably is the latest 90 degree reading on record for them.

Frosty time is here

Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for Western Kentucky, and Middle Tennessee.

Some low temp. forecasts for tonight include:
Hopkinsville KY- 37
Clarksville TN- 29
Paducah KY- 34
Murray KY- 37
Henderson KY- 38
Dickson TN- 36
Paris TN- 28

Fall Chill

Paducah is down to 37, Henderson 36, Hopkinsville 40, Owensboro 44. On this chilly Monday Fall Morning. Temps. will be in the mid 60's Western Kentucky wide today, before we chill off tonight.

Frost Advisory for areas to our south

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ohx&wwa=frost%20advisory

Burn Bans in Western Kentucky

http://forestry.ky.gov/wildlandfiremanagement/Documents/CURRENT%20WILDLAND%20FIRE%20REPORT.pdf

The link shows counties under a Burn Ban for Kentucky:

In Western Kentucky this includes: Fulton, McCracken, Crittenden, Henderson, Daviess, Webster, Mclean, Hopkins, Muhlenberg, Christian, and Todd Counties in Western Kentucky.

If you burn in these counties you could face a stiff fan, already 33,586 acres have burned in Kentucky.

October Chill this weekend/early next week.

Hopkinsville and Henderson KY have a low of 36 in the forecast for Sunday Night. Happy October!!!