Elevated Fire Danger expected today.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 517 AM CDT
 THU SEP 30 2010  ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ001>022-
MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-301700-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON
-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS
-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU
-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...
WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN
... JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO... MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS
...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE... EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...
HICKMAN...CLINTON... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND..
.BENTON... MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO... CALHOUN..
.GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL... CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT..
.VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF... BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...
NEW MADRID 517 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010  ...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON...
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY VEGETATION...
AND NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND THE
HUMIDITY LEVEL RISES.  $$    

Fall is a here

After today and tom. warm to near 80, expect another cool down. With Highs in the low to mid 60's and lows around 40, maybe some 38 -39 readings in rural areas cannot be ruled out.

Remember Fall Severe WX Awareness

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/?n=fallsevereweatherawarenessday-sept29%2C2010

Today should, or I hope it should be the last 90 degree day for anyone in West KY.

Some changes are coming.

First some rain chances from Sunday though Wednesday to deal with. Not a lot of rain expected, but the clouds and rain should keep the temps. in the 70's.

Elevated Fire Danger/Some Wind

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/nowcast.php?site=pah

Check the link for more details.

KY Drought Map.

http://www.drought.gov/portal/server.pt/gateway/PTARGS_0_2_792_223_0_43/http%3B/drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?KY,MW

Here comes the Drought Outlook everyone in West KY is in D0, with most areas in D1 Moderate Drought, a small area of D2(Severe Drought) exists across parts of Fulton and Hickman County. Rain chances are on the rise across the Southeast and Ohio Valley.

Special Weather Statement

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
403 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

ILZ075>078-081>083-085>087-089>091-094-INZ081-082-085>088-
KYZ005>022-232000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-WHITE-
WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-JOHNSON-POPE-HARDIN-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-
POSEY-VANDERBURGH-WARRICK-SPENCER-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-
MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-UNION KY-WEBSTER-
HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...CARMI...HERRIN...
HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...
METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...EVANSVILLE...
BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON
403 AM CDT THU SEP 23 2010

...ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND
30 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND WESTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION...AND FORECAST GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...MEANS
THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK.

THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE...WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST...AROUND OR JUST ABOVE
25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY IN ADDITION TO SOUTHWEST INDIANA. WINDS
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS GUSTY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PENNYRILE REGION
OF WEST KENTUCKY INCLUDING THE LAKES AREA. NEVER THE LESS...WINDS
IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. VEGETATION
ACROSS THE LAKES AREA IS QUITE DRY AS WELL.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

$$

Elevated fire danger

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=pah&storyid=57729&source=0

New NWS Update.

I don't really see a pattern breakdown till Mid to Late October, but we will get a some relief(upper 70's lower 80's) this weekend.

Unbelievable Fall Blowtorch excepted across the Southeast and Ohio Valley this week. With record highs and poor air quality possible to likely.

Several areas were in the Mid 90's today and that could continue into Thursday.

As classic as Hurricanes come

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/100913_g15_igor_vis_anim.gif

Early Winter Thoughts(Regional)

Click if you want to enlarge the maps.

First is the Temp. Map and Second is the Precip map. This is a very preliminary look, of my thoughts of winter. Factors include a potent La Nina event, a -PDO pattern, an active Pacific jet, potential for a battleground zone. Due to uncertainties with NAO (on this outlook I did a neutral to slightly positive one, but that would be overtaken by the unfavorable Pacific and ENSO.

- A SE Ridge is a big story this winter, this could create above average to very above average temps. at the time across the Eastern and Southeastern USA.
- The active Northern Stream and where it collides with the SE Ridge "Battleground zone" are also huge stories. The "Battleground Zone" could face well above average precipitation, severe weather events, and even a few overrunning winter events cannot be ruled out.
- Although small there is a small Below Average Temp zone on the edge of the map. At this point I will go for Below Average temps. from NE Colorado and Nebraska Panhandle and extended towards the Northern Rockies and Pacific NW, and also portions of Western Canada and portions of the Arctic, this is where I think the only widespread Below Average Temps will be.
- There could be a period for a good snow in Late Feb./March.
- Cool Season severe weather threats will be a problem for much of the Southeast and MS/OH valley areas. I think the best chances will be in the Mid-South where the battleground will be maximized, but all of the SE needs to be on ground for severe wx potential.
- If a Wedge forms that could make temps. a little closer to average for portions of the SE instead of way above average, also if the battleground pushed more southward then, temps may be closer to average in Northern and Western portions of the SE then depicted on the map.
- Some analogs are stronger La Nina's of the 50's and 70's. Such as 49-50, 55-56, 73-74, and even 07-08. Although similar patterns to these winters are likely, just because you got hit by two tornadoes in 07-08, or you house flooded in 49-50 doesn't mean that same specific weather event will happen again, this are the large pattern analogs, not meant to predict, whether a tornado will hit your house, or anything like that.

I will post it a little more detail on my thoughts locally later this month.

Red Flag Warning

NWS has issued a Red Flag Warning for: Henderson,Union,Daviess counties. Special weather statement highlighted some fire threat has been issued for the rest of Western Kentucky.

Some nice cool lows

Hopkinsville: 49
Henderson: 45
Paducah: 50

Wildfire danger in West KY on Labor Day.

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
421 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010


ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
098-100-106>112-114-052100-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FW.A.0002.100906T1700Z-100907T0000Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-SHANNON-
WAYNE MO-OREGON-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-
NEW MADRID-
421 AM CDT SUN SEP 5 2010

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 25 PERCENT WILL ELEVATE THE WILDFIRE RISK
OVER THE QUAD STATE REGION LABOR DAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...THE LOWEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY LIE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. IN
ADDITION...MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

Nice pretty weather for the weekend. No complaints.

Tonight Lows go into the low 50's. Tom. Highs around 76 to 81 cooler across NW KY, and warmer along southern Purchase.

Lows could dive below 50 on Saturday Night, Sunday Morning