HAPPY HALLOWS EVE

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!

HAPPY HALLOWS EVE!!!!

Clouds should clear throughout the day and clear out by the time the Halloween Festivities commence. The rain chances early exist to the south and east of West KY should the weather should be all clear.

The only concern is in the next few days the water along the Ohio/Miss. River convergence and the Green River at Paradise will be in the minor to maybe even close to Moderate flood stage so watch out for any high water in those areas esp in the low lying farmlands and river roads around. Not a major event but rare to see this in the fall.

Usually river flooding due to the summer heat evaporating and lowering the water and water in the soil content. Usually summer and fall are drier than the Winter and Spring. For West KY this has been the wettest October on record so it isn't all normal.

The Eve of Halloween outlook

Oct 30 update

2 to 4 inches west of US 45 with some flooding possible and a flash flood watch. 1 to 3 inches east with local ponding on the roads possible.

Link to the PAH weather briefing

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=briefs

Includes Audio

Timing of the rain

West KY rain starts tomorrow. timing of heaviest rain in far NW KY starts in the wee morning hours of Friday and runs into Friday Night for the rest of West KY including Murray up to Madisonville and company it will be Friday Afternoon into Halloween Morning.

Up to 3 to 5 inches of rain should fall in this period.

This isn't expected to be a historic or very major, but could be an issue with steady moderate or heavier rains in a 24 hour period. Leafs can clog up some of the drainage areas leading to urban flooding.

Oct 28th outlook

When it Rains It Pours When It Rains a lot it is October 2009

We all know that October 2009 for Paducah is the wettest October on record. With this rain event and one upcoming it won't be close.

After a gradual rain event we are having now the attention pans to a system in the Thurs Night/Friday time frame.

The models are slowing a system down and streaming moisture on in. This could result in rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms some Thursday night and round Friday when the low system comes in. With the recent saturated grounds and record rainfall this is grounds for a potential flooding event. The best chance and heavier rains are most likely west of I-24 in which 3 to 5 inches or rain is quite possible and could cause a lot of issues.

Also even though there isn't a lot of instability a narrow line or cluster of severe storms may form along the front Friday and if this happens damaging winds are possible especially which such strong winds in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

Might be Model Reality?

That is one GFS run but it is consistency starting to show a potenial big system across the midwest. This is a long way out and still things can and will change, but it is very rare to see 130kts on a jet stream at 500mb.

This is something models don't put out too often.

Winter Outlook Update 09-10

Remember I am not a meteorologist or an expert, but instead someone interested in the weather and this el nino.

As we descend into Fall there are still several conflicting factors. Right nwo we have a west based moderate El Nino it may go back to neutral or east or even basin wide. The strength part appears to be even more confusing. Somewhere in the 1.2-1.7C range for the peak ONI is what I am expecting. As continued warming although it slowed down in July and August continues. Also the PDO appears to be near neutral. A +1.2 or +1.3C compared to a +1.7 or +1.8C or even higher can mean way different results.

My Thoughts

• A Moderate El Nino that is west based or a Low End Strong EL Nino that is west based or neutral/basin wide. Thinking (+1.25to +1.7C)
  
• Average Siberia and Eurasia Snowfall started out very unfavorable but turned favorable.
  
• A West Based El Nino should keep the Pacific Jet in check and not allow it to ruin the systems, which could allow for a West Ridge and East Trough setup at times, although at other times especially if it gets in the strong range Pacific and Subtropical air could flood the nation and make the pattern unfavorable for most everyone.
  
• Low Sunspots may lower the chances for extended winter long warmth
• Some brief and intense Arctic Outbreaks are still possible although the el nino may lessen their duration and extent. Could be a big Arctic Outbreak possible in Late Jan/Feb period due to El Nino Climatology and a favorable Pacific Pattern if a -NAO can develop.
  
• An active Subtropical Jet running across South Texas though the Gulf Coast and occasional phasing with the northern polar stream will be the main weather makers.
• The NAO is hard to predict over 2 weeks in advance but I think it should be mostly neutral with positive periods and negative periods

My Month Overlook

December: Many El Nino years and many analogs are warmer than average on December. It isn't as easy as El Nino= Warm December. Factors like the NAO and PNA are at play with this one. This is the month the subtropical jet starts to crank, but the first part of this month after the cold snaps of October and maybe late November to will first moderate. This may be a boring weather month until after the 20th. Around Christmas and New Years Eve time-frame things could get interesting with a possible cold snap and an active subtropical jet. We can always hope for a white Christmas and New Years. The Pacfic Pattern may also be unfavorable allowing for some blowtorch into the pattern if a -NAO can occur it may negate some of the warmth.

January: This is where things get interesting. The Subtropical Jet will continue to crank out the December Cold could setup in Canada than move on though into the area. There will also probably be a few days of 60's and maybe even 70's ahead of big storms that could pay visit this month. Overall especially if the nao goes negative it can possibly get down right cold at times. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few winter events, and maybe a severe wx event from West KY and across the Southeast and East Coast this month as this could be an unsettled month.

February: This appears to probably be the coldest times for West KY and the East Coast the Pacfic and Subtropical Jets may moderate the month towards the end. The Potential for the NAO to go negative and also a favorable track across the East Coast could result in the funnest times for the winter. Also many analogs and el ninos like this support a cold February.

Overall- I feel the winter potential is low esp. in the first half of December, but depending on timing either after the Winter Solstice or sometime in Early to Mid Jan the pattern should favor more of a winter pattern the Pacific may be a little more favorable and Arctic invasions should occur at times. The El Nino will be an issue and I don't think it will weaken though the year except for maybe a slight weakening maybe in Jan and Feb that may allow for a stronger north stream. The Pacfic pattern may be horrible in Dec but gets slightly better into Jan and Feb.

If the El Nino stays West Based and in the ONI Peak +1.2-+1.5 range we will have better potential for a good winter

If it goes east based or basin wide and gets above +1.6ONI I think a lot of people will be disappointed in this winter and most of West Kentucky will be lucky to get to average in snowfall. Because the Subtropical Jet will dominate the pattern and severely limit the chance for arctic cold snaps.

Fall Severe Weather Awareness Day

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ohx/swaw/fall_severe_weather_awareness.php

Frost Again

Frost Advisory time

Freeze possible Sat/Sun Night

Freeze Warning has been issued for Paris TN with a low of 29 expected.

With more clearing expected Saturday Night a freeze is possible in West KY with lows in the 31-34 range quite possible. Also near freezing temps are possible east of the Lakes Sunday Night as well.

Take precautions and bring in plants, and if you can't cover them up and protect them if you can.

Post 1,000

This is post 1,000 on the West KY Weather Blogspot :)

Though the ice storm of 2008-2009, the Super Tuesday Outbreak of 2008, and the March 2008 Snowstorm/Blizzard.

West KY weather has kept West KY updated on those significant weather events.

Frost is Possible this weekend

Due to a cool high and Canadian air coming down frost is possible. The last one didn't pan out but there is confidence that this cold snap will.

Clouds may prevent the risk Saturday, but Sunday with radational cooling may provide a frost or even possibility a freeze in low lying areas. stay tuned.

My Facebook Status

the great forecast. Rain today, Rain tommorow. no heavy rain/ or severe wx thankfully Slight Chance of rain and clouds this weekend and cool. Sunday the sun comes out with a high of 57 so at least Sunday will be nice at least for me. Except for S...unday and the fact that there will not be any severe wx or flooding this status is why facebook should have a dislike button on it.

Cloudy and clear

Luckily we survived Thursday Night without an event. Some heavy rain and local flooding but that was about it.

The frost threat is gone due to cloudcover and a pesky little ridge to form over the SE to keep the lows warm.

Still temps will be mostly love and confront for us in West KY this week.

Oct 9th overview

Autumn can mean A tornado threat

Low topped supercells are still in the works for West KY than potential for a squall line. The warm front from Hickman to near Hopkinsville may focus some storms. Due to lacking instability the threat may not be quite as bad as once feared, but also overnight the dynamics will come together and could cuase some ugly storms to form.

Stay tuned and keep your NOAA weather radios and other weather sources. in handy tonight into tomorrow morning.

Tornado Watch 763 for West KY and Paris TN till 3am

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 761
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
800 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

TORNADO WATCH 761 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-059-075-083-101-105-107-139-143-145-
149-157-177-219-221-225-233-090800-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0761.091009T0100Z-091009T0800Z/

KY
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CALDWELL            CALLOWAY
CARLISLE             CHRISTIAN           CRITTENDEN
DAVIESS              FULTON              GRAVES
HENDERSON            HICKMAN             HOPKINS
LIVINGSTON           LYON                MARSHALL
MCCRACKEN            MCLEAN              MUHLENBERG
TODD                 TRIGG               UNION
WEBSTER
$$

Flood Advisorys for NW KY

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
433 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

INC147-KYC059-107-149-177-233-090030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0105.091008T2133Z-091009T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SPENCER IN-DAVIESS KY-MCLEAN KY-WEBSTER KY-HOPKINS KY-MUHLENBERG KY-
433 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
 DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 MCLEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 WEBSTER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 MUHLENBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
 SPENCER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 432 PM CDT...RADAR SHOWED NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 3/4 INCH PER HOUR MOVING INTO AND OVER ALREADY SATURATED OR
NEAR SATURATED GROUNDS ACROSS THE PENNYRILE REGION AND EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE OWENSBORO METRO AREA. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF
FLOOD PRONE AREAS LIKE THE LLOYD EXPRESSWAY IN EVANSVILLE...AND
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH COULD LIKEWISE TOP
THEIR BANKS. CITY STREETS MAY FLOOD AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3793 8698 3780 8682 3767 8683 3748 8711
     3737 8710 3722 8690 3709 8691 3716 8771
     3731 8785 3737 8781 3741 8794 3747 8794
     3764 8774 3767 8743 3778 8728 3789 8732
     3813 8703 3821 8702 3821 8680 3801 8677

$$

Final update for October 8th

Click Map to Enlarge!!!!

Oct 8th update big changes in the forecast.

Click for an larger image.

Oct 8th

Heavy Rain and strong storms are possible today and tomorrow. The biggest threat is flood potenial esp. in Union and Henderson Counties where a flood watch is in effect.

Watch for frost potential and temps in the mid 30's on Monday Night.

Click to enlarge map for more details.

Oct 8th-9th Rainy Days

Flood Watch for Union and Henderson counties in West KY.

Oct 7th overview.

Oct 6th overview

October Facts.

Almost happy Halloween. The first full fall month and the month that contains Halloween is here. Trick or Treat.

As far as weather what type of treats are expected for Western KY as far as weather averages go:

Hopkinsville: (using PAH now data from 1971-2000)
High: 70.9
Low: 45.2
Precip: 3.30

Average First Freeze (32 or below) Oct 19th

Paducah: (using PAH now data from 1971-2000)
High: 71.2
Low: 46.8
Precip: 3.45

Average First Freeze (32 or below) Oct 25th

Providence: (PAH data 1979-2000)

High: 71.8
Low: 46.4
Precip: 3.09

Average First Freeze (32 or below) Oct 21st

The overall average period the freeze for all West KY areas is somewhere on average from Oct 21st to the 28th.

Some strange scary October Facts:
- Several big time severe weather events have unfolded this month esp. this decade across Western Kentucky. 10/24/2001, 10/18/2004, and a record tornado event as far as number of tornadoes reported in the West Kentucky 24, 10/18/2007.
- Snow has been reported in Late October around Halloween in the years of 1925, 1957, and 1993. Some of these snow events have put down up to 4 inches across parts of West KY for the trick or treaters around.
- On October 6th 2007 a record 98 degrees was recorded in Princeton KY and was the hottest October temperature ever recorded not only in West KY but in Kentucky as a whole.