- Highs in the upper 60's to around 70
- Clear and sunny skies
- Finally Fall weather is here
After two very nice days followed by another nice day Thursday things remain nice till Thursday Night/Friday in which we will have to monitor a system for the potential for a few strong storms. Than we continue the nice weather though the weekend.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Saturday, September 26, 2009
The FOG !!!!
Confidence Level of fog 4 out of 5.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
938 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
110>112-114-271000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FG.Y.0006.090927T0500Z-090927T1500Z/
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-STODDARD-SCOTT-
MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON...OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
938 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT IN MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION
AND BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.
&&
$$
Amber Alert
INC025-037-123-KYC027-085-091-163-183-270300-
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
353 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2009 /253 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009/
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
DAVIESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.
THE DAVIESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING FOR HALEY
WILLETT...A 13 YEAR OLD CAUCASIAN FEMALE WITH BLONDE HAIR AND BLUE
EYES. SHE IS 5 FEET FIVE INCHES TALL AND WEIGHS 102 POUNDS. THE
EVENT OCCURRED AT JULIA AVENUE IN OWENSBORO AT 430 THIS MORNING.
SHE WAS LAST SEEN WEARING SHORT BLUE JEAN SHORTS AND A WHITE TANK
TOP.
THE SUSPECT IS ARCHIE WHALEN DESCRIBED AS BEING A 43 YEAR OLD
CAUCASIAN MALE WITH BROWN HAIR...HAZEL EYES AND IS 6 FEET TALL AND
WEIGHS 200 POUNDS. THE VEHICLE IS A 1999 CHEVY SILVERADO WITH A
MAINE LICENSE NUMBER OF 8017RF. THE TRUCK HAS A SLEEP IN CAMPER ON
THE BACK.
IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THIS INCIDENT LPLEASE CALL 911 OR
CONTACT THE DAVIESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT AT 270 685 8444.
$$
T-storm Watch 744 for West KY till 9
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 744
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA
MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SALEM ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY AHEAD
OF UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS MO. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS AS STORMS MOVE/DEVELOP EWD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...HALES
Fog gives away to chance of storms
Forgot to put this in the map but still low confidence so just a confidence level of 1 in the Severe Storms area. And 1 in the Strong Storms area.Beware out there fogs it is a foggy morning. Also this could give away to a few storms some in which may have hail potential in them. Also locally strong winds may also occur around NW KY close to the Ohio River.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Rain continues into Saturday.
The flooding threat has shifted east and severe weather in unlikely now due to no instability. Still locally heavy rain can occur in any bands east of the lakes that form. Though Saturday morning and afternoon.
After Saturday a more fall like airmass moves across the area.
After Saturday a more fall like airmass moves across the area.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
The Rains Continue on
The rains continue on for West KY though Saturday. Clearing should occur thankfully today still local heavy rain can occur and continue Saturday.
Some locally heavy rain showers may impact some college football games Saturday afternoon and evening.
Some locally heavy rain showers may impact some college football games Saturday afternoon and evening.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
3 years ago Sept 22nd-23rd flooding/severe wx
A complex setup of severe weather came about in the first days of actual fall in 2006. It in some areas actually upstaged the football games going on that weekend.
A warm front on Friday September 22nd focused several storms mostly supercells which gradually turned into clusters and short line segments. On the evening of the 22nd four tornadoes occurred. 3 F1's and 1 Fo. The most damage occurred along the riverfront in Livingston County the supercell than moved across Crittenden County and into Webster County in which a store was deroofed and a mobile home thrown and destroyed across the road in Crittenden County. Also a F1 did minor damage in Whitesville in eastern Daviess County. These 3 tornadoes were all F1 and were all part of one supercell storm.
A minor line also caused one brief F0 and wind damage across West KY later that night but mostly flooding. As lines of storms and clusters would move across the same areas over and over again from early on Sept 22nd though early Sept 24th. At the end of the period some areas in West KY esp from Eddyville and Murray west towards Fulton received more than 11 inches of rain. Some areas required many water rescues and had many buildings flooded.
Over 100 water rescues occurred across Kentucky in this event.
Funnel clouds, one Ballard County F1 tornado, isolated wind damage and more flooding occurred with the cold front and main line on Sept 23rd
A warm front on Friday September 22nd focused several storms mostly supercells which gradually turned into clusters and short line segments. On the evening of the 22nd four tornadoes occurred. 3 F1's and 1 Fo. The most damage occurred along the riverfront in Livingston County the supercell than moved across Crittenden County and into Webster County in which a store was deroofed and a mobile home thrown and destroyed across the road in Crittenden County. Also a F1 did minor damage in Whitesville in eastern Daviess County. These 3 tornadoes were all F1 and were all part of one supercell storm.
A minor line also caused one brief F0 and wind damage across West KY later that night but mostly flooding. As lines of storms and clusters would move across the same areas over and over again from early on Sept 22nd though early Sept 24th. At the end of the period some areas in West KY esp from Eddyville and Murray west towards Fulton received more than 11 inches of rain. Some areas required many water rescues and had many buildings flooded.
Over 100 water rescues occurred across Kentucky in this event.
Funnel clouds, one Ballard County F1 tornado, isolated wind damage and more flooding occurred with the cold front and main line on Sept 23rd
Local Ponding
Local Flooding issues are possible in heavier rain showers. Not major but since the ground is saturated this could be an issue.
More soggy conditions
Will it rain more?
Yes
Will it still be humid?
Yes sadly.
But there may be some slight changes with a slow moving cold front as it moves across the area this weekend. Until then scattered thunderstorms some with heavy rain will be a commonplace across Western Kentucky throughout the weekend. Come Friday and into Saturday some of the storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds possible and also contain heavy rain
Yes
Will it still be humid?
Yes sadly.
But there may be some slight changes with a slow moving cold front as it moves across the area this weekend. Until then scattered thunderstorms some with heavy rain will be a commonplace across Western Kentucky throughout the weekend. Come Friday and into Saturday some of the storms may become strong to severe with damaging winds possible and also contain heavy rain
Monday, September 21, 2009
Fall Season Severe WX
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=cool_season_severe_weather
more on this later on this weekend
more on this later on this weekend
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Rain Episode 762
Rain and thunderstorms some could be heavy tonight and early tomorrow.
Confidence Level of 1 out of 5 for flooding.
Some storms could put down locally heavy rain so beware of ponding on roads for heavier rain episodes.
Confidence Level of 1 out of 5 for flooding.
Some storms could put down locally heavy rain so beware of ponding on roads for heavier rain episodes.
Flash Flood Warning Eastern Henderson/Western Daviess KY
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
KYC059-101-210130-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FF.W.0061.090920T2226Z-090921T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT.
* AT 522 PM CDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED FROM A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WARNED AREA.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
MASONVILLE...
ST. JOSEPH...
OWENSBORO...
STANLEY...
RAINFALL FROM EARLIER STORMS PRODUCED AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE MOVING INTO THE WARNED AREA
...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES...
ESPECAILLY OVER THE CITY OF OWENSBORO.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 3758 8706 3767 8734 3784 8725 3784 8718
3777 8711 3780 8706 3789 8704 3793 8699
3789 8698 3788 8692
$$
Friday, September 18, 2009
Rainy Weekend
Big time flooding occurred with a stalled out subtropical low across Mid Tn west towards Arkansas. As a low became cut off from the northern stream it has nothing to push it away.
With the moisture and low southward Western Kentucky hasn't really seen the effects of the heavy rain, but some locally heavy rain could move into the area this weekend into next week so we will watch that.
A cold front is expected to move into the area but weaken before it can have a big impact on the area.
With the moisture and low southward Western Kentucky hasn't really seen the effects of the heavy rain, but some locally heavy rain could move into the area this weekend into next week so we will watch that.
A cold front is expected to move into the area but weaken before it can have a big impact on the area.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
1 year ago from today.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=strongwindswithike
A good link.
A intense windstorm unfolding across Western Kentucky during the morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday September, 14th, 2008. Remnants of Hurricane Ike intercepted a strong cold front around Northeast Arkansas. As the system become extra-tropical and moved along the fast moving cold front it raced across SE MO, Central IN, to NW OH and into Ontario. With dry air aloft mixing down of strong winds some 90MPH a few thousand feet above the ground led to wind gusts across West KY over 50MPH all across the West KY 22
Max gusts were of Hurricane force around Calvert City and isolated areas around Owensboro. Several areas were without power some esp in the more rural counties in far West KY were without power for several days. ALso 17 injuries occured in Hopkins County but no deaths occurred. Damages in the 22 West KY area were over 60million dollars.
A good link.
A intense windstorm unfolding across Western Kentucky during the morning and early afternoon hours of Sunday September, 14th, 2008. Remnants of Hurricane Ike intercepted a strong cold front around Northeast Arkansas. As the system become extra-tropical and moved along the fast moving cold front it raced across SE MO, Central IN, to NW OH and into Ontario. With dry air aloft mixing down of strong winds some 90MPH a few thousand feet above the ground led to wind gusts across West KY over 50MPH all across the West KY 22
Max gusts were of Hurricane force around Calvert City and isolated areas around Owensboro. Several areas were without power some esp in the more rural counties in far West KY were without power for several days. ALso 17 injuries occured in Hopkins County but no deaths occurred. Damages in the 22 West KY area were over 60million dollars.
Saturday, September 12, 2009
The Just for Fun Preliminary Winter Outlook
After a D Grade for a horrible forecast and prediction for last year, in which Feb was the only month that was close and despite going into a weak la nina like I expected it didn't quite go down like I thought it would. 2007-08 I did better but went to cold in Dec, but accurately was correct when I called it a battleground winter.
Now it is going into Fall 2009 and with winter 2009 in just a little less than 3 months ahead we will go into our first glimpse of Winter.
Last Winter for West KY was mostly a one hit wonder with an historic Ice Storm that struck the area from Jan 26th-28th time frame. In which set a record number of power outages for the state of Kentucky, disrupted communication, and left some without power for 3 weeks to a month after the storm. Also a big gulf low turned nor' easter gave Fulton KY 4 inches which that tampered and abruptly shifted SE even south of Nashville to give the southern half of that state an historic snowstorm, and the Cumberland Plateau a nasty quick hitting ice storm. Also the Dec cold air busted as record warmth and highs in the 60's and 70's occurred from the Day after Christmas towards New Years.
Some things to potentially come into a play this winter include AO(arctic oscillation), NAO(north Atlantic oscillation), any potential for high pressure to set up in Greenland (Greenland Block), other Pacific Measurements and scales, other factors mets. and others do not have a good grasp on, and just as important as the others, but not a final judgment as some would have you to believe EL NINO.
Typically an negative AO is good for arctic air to come to the East US, -NAO is good a long as it is not too east based to set up cold air, Greenland block holds cold from the Ozarks eastward, The Pacfic is a great measurement to as last year there were several storms ruined as the record strong Pacific Jet sheared a lot of storms apart of course excluding the Ice Storm and Late Feb-Early March Gulf Low/Nor Easter.
TO LOOK AHEAD
This winter features a EL NINO, what looks a negative PDO even though it could break positive it doesn't look to strongly negative or positive. If any Greenland Block can occur we could have an extended cold snap, and if low solar activity can effect this winter than it may led to cooler departures.
One thing that is important is that not all El Ninos are the same. Even though Stronger El Ninos are more El Nino dominated patterns, and have a lot of similarities. Even 82-83 and 97-98 had it's differences as analogs can't tell and are not supposed to be used to predict exact patterns, but only for guidance. Every El Nino winter has small scale patterns a lot that we don't even understand that involves snowfall and even temperature and overall precipitation anomalies. Other factors such as NAO, AO, PNA, PDO are equally as important.
Most all El Ninos have some things in common. A strong southern jet, usually several Nor' Easters, and usually drought/flood cycle in parts of Asia and South America can be interrupted.
Some myths of El Ninos which occurred in several El Nino events but aren't 100 or near 100% as some may think
- Not all El Ninos led to warm arctic and not all El Ninos lack arctic outbreaks.
- Not all El Ninos are dryer than average in West KY or Mid TN even though several are.
- Not all El Ninos give a good snowy winter 62-63, 63-64, 69-70, the later 70's, 02-03 might of been great snowy winters, but some other El Nino winters like 90-91, 91-92, 94-95, 06-07 did not provide good winters. There is more to it than El Nino.
There are two major factors that determine El Nino those are placement, and strength.
West Based- More colder for the east and less Pacific influence
Neutral Based- Can be eventful for the east as long as the Atlantic and Pacific cooperates.
East Based- Can lead to a warmer conditions but if the -NAO and the El Nino is weak it usually can stay favorable.
Weak EL Nino- +0.5C-+0.99C Usually the most favorable ENSO of them all for the East.
Moderate EL Nino- +1.0C-1.49C Can be favorable if West/Neutral Based and if the NAO and AO corporate.
Strong EL Nino- +1.5C and above. There is some hope if it is lower than +1.8C like 57-58. Other than that it is mostly a subtropical like climate in which the super tropical jet and EL Nino takes over the pattern. If any arctic air can mix some heavy wet snow events can fall though.
My just for fun Prediction:
Placement(neutral/slightly East based)
Strength (Moderate +1.3-1.35 peak)
With a PDO which is also important around neutral to slightly negative.
A brief pattern breakdown in which more than likely there could be nina like pattern changes esp. early in the winter with the subtropical jet influence mixing with the colder air to the north. There could be a few quick hitting arctic outbreaks early from November to December but with a nino and esp. if a block doesn't setup in Greenland they may not be sustainable. February could favor a big cool down esp. by analogs and the potential for the effects of the nino to weaken and allow the cold air to filter in more.
Now it is going into Fall 2009 and with winter 2009 in just a little less than 3 months ahead we will go into our first glimpse of Winter.
Last Winter for West KY was mostly a one hit wonder with an historic Ice Storm that struck the area from Jan 26th-28th time frame. In which set a record number of power outages for the state of Kentucky, disrupted communication, and left some without power for 3 weeks to a month after the storm. Also a big gulf low turned nor' easter gave Fulton KY 4 inches which that tampered and abruptly shifted SE even south of Nashville to give the southern half of that state an historic snowstorm, and the Cumberland Plateau a nasty quick hitting ice storm. Also the Dec cold air busted as record warmth and highs in the 60's and 70's occurred from the Day after Christmas towards New Years.
Some things to potentially come into a play this winter include AO(arctic oscillation), NAO(north Atlantic oscillation), any potential for high pressure to set up in Greenland (Greenland Block), other Pacific Measurements and scales, other factors mets. and others do not have a good grasp on, and just as important as the others, but not a final judgment as some would have you to believe EL NINO.
Typically an negative AO is good for arctic air to come to the East US, -NAO is good a long as it is not too east based to set up cold air, Greenland block holds cold from the Ozarks eastward, The Pacfic is a great measurement to as last year there were several storms ruined as the record strong Pacific Jet sheared a lot of storms apart of course excluding the Ice Storm and Late Feb-Early March Gulf Low/Nor Easter.
TO LOOK AHEAD
This winter features a EL NINO, what looks a negative PDO even though it could break positive it doesn't look to strongly negative or positive. If any Greenland Block can occur we could have an extended cold snap, and if low solar activity can effect this winter than it may led to cooler departures.
One thing that is important is that not all El Ninos are the same. Even though Stronger El Ninos are more El Nino dominated patterns, and have a lot of similarities. Even 82-83 and 97-98 had it's differences as analogs can't tell and are not supposed to be used to predict exact patterns, but only for guidance. Every El Nino winter has small scale patterns a lot that we don't even understand that involves snowfall and even temperature and overall precipitation anomalies. Other factors such as NAO, AO, PNA, PDO are equally as important.
Most all El Ninos have some things in common. A strong southern jet, usually several Nor' Easters, and usually drought/flood cycle in parts of Asia and South America can be interrupted.
Some myths of El Ninos which occurred in several El Nino events but aren't 100 or near 100% as some may think
- Not all El Ninos led to warm arctic and not all El Ninos lack arctic outbreaks.
- Not all El Ninos are dryer than average in West KY or Mid TN even though several are.
- Not all El Ninos give a good snowy winter 62-63, 63-64, 69-70, the later 70's, 02-03 might of been great snowy winters, but some other El Nino winters like 90-91, 91-92, 94-95, 06-07 did not provide good winters. There is more to it than El Nino.
There are two major factors that determine El Nino those are placement, and strength.
West Based- More colder for the east and less Pacific influence
Neutral Based- Can be eventful for the east as long as the Atlantic and Pacific cooperates.
East Based- Can lead to a warmer conditions but if the -NAO and the El Nino is weak it usually can stay favorable.
Weak EL Nino- +0.5C-+0.99C Usually the most favorable ENSO of them all for the East.
Moderate EL Nino- +1.0C-1.49C Can be favorable if West/Neutral Based and if the NAO and AO corporate.
Strong EL Nino- +1.5C and above. There is some hope if it is lower than +1.8C like 57-58. Other than that it is mostly a subtropical like climate in which the super tropical jet and EL Nino takes over the pattern. If any arctic air can mix some heavy wet snow events can fall though.
My just for fun Prediction:
Placement(neutral/slightly East based)
Strength (Moderate +1.3-1.35 peak)
With a PDO which is also important around neutral to slightly negative.
A brief pattern breakdown in which more than likely there could be nina like pattern changes esp. early in the winter with the subtropical jet influence mixing with the colder air to the north. There could be a few quick hitting arctic outbreaks early from November to December but with a nino and esp. if a block doesn't setup in Greenland they may not be sustainable. February could favor a big cool down esp. by analogs and the potential for the effects of the nino to weaken and allow the cold air to filter in more.
Friday, September 11, 2009
The Memory Remains
In a post that doesn't deal with weather today is the 8th year anniversary of 9/11.
This event shaped everyone young and old forever. Children like I was back in 6th grade were forever changed as the world suddenly became colder and more hostile. The political and mental landscape of America would never be the same. As many good people lost there lives not knowing that September 11th would be the last day. God bless all the victims throughout the hard time.
This event really makes you think about the sacrifice that the men and women of our armed forces are doing, by putting the country and the people's freedom's first even over their own self is an amazing feat, and we are glad to honor these great and brave people.
Also this event gives you insight to live each day like it is your last; because you never know what might happen even a few minutes from now.
9/11 a day that we will never forget.
This event shaped everyone young and old forever. Children like I was back in 6th grade were forever changed as the world suddenly became colder and more hostile. The political and mental landscape of America would never be the same. As many good people lost there lives not knowing that September 11th would be the last day. God bless all the victims throughout the hard time.
This event really makes you think about the sacrifice that the men and women of our armed forces are doing, by putting the country and the people's freedom's first even over their own self is an amazing feat, and we are glad to honor these great and brave people.
Also this event gives you insight to live each day like it is your last; because you never know what might happen even a few minutes from now.
9/11 a day that we will never forget.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
The Fog (2009)
Dense Fog some locally dense possible tonight and tomm morning again
Confidence Level of 4 out of 5 for this.
Confidence Level of 4 out of 5 for this.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Saturday, September 5, 2009
NWS Flood Advisories
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
417 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009
KYC101-052315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0085.090905T2117Z-090905T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HENDERSON KY-
417 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.
* AT 415 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS NEAR HENDERSON AND OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HENDERSON
COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OVER TWO INCHES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 3783 8785 3783 8762 3790 8755 3791 8743
3774 8745 3771 8769
$$
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
402 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009
KYC145-052300-
/O.NEW.KPAH.FA.Y.0084.090905T2102Z-090905T2300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCCRACKEN KY-
402 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED AN
* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.
* AT 359 PM CDT...REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS NEAR PADUCAH AND OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MCCRACKEN
COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES OVER TWO INCHES AN HOUR WERE OCCURRING.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND STANDING WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
&&
LAT...LON 3716 8880 3706 8858 3698 8861 3698 8883
$$
Friday, September 4, 2009
Special Weather Statement Cold Air Funnels
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009
KYZ001>006-008-009-011>013-016-017-021-022-MOZ110>112-114-050200-
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-MARSHALL-
CALLOWAY-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-
STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...BENTON...MURRAY...EDDYVILLE...
CADIZ...PRINCETON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...
ELKTON...BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
638 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009
...COLD AIR FUNNELS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING...
SHORTLY AFTER 6 PM...COLD AIR FUNNELS WERE REPORTED OVER THE
HOPKINSVILLE AREA. THESE COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE DEVELOPING
UNDERNEATH A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA....
NAMELY THE PURCHASE AND SOUTHERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. UNDERNEATH THESE SHOWERS...
SPINNING COLUMNS OF AIR THAT LOOK LIKE FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP. THESE FUNNELS USUALLY ARE VERY BRIEF AND RARELY TOUCH
THE GROUND. IF THESE FUNNELS DO TOUCH DOWN...THEY MOST LIKELY WILL
NOT CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
COLD AIR FUNNELS ARE DUE TO VERY COOL AIR ALOFT...WARM MOIST AIR
NEAR THE GROUND...AND ARE USUALLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DUE
TO LITTLE OR NO WIND SHEAR...THEY ARE USUALLY WEAK AND VERY
BRIEF.
$$
RJP
Thursday, September 3, 2009
September Rain
Locally heavy rain is occurring today. There is a possibility of more today but some locally heavy rain and even minor flooding has occurred this morning from these storms.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Welcome to Meterological Fall.
Temperatures in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the low 50's signal the first day of meteorological fall. Astronomical Fall occurs around Sept 23rd during the Fall Equniox where the sun shines brightest on the equinox and day and night are equal or near equal.
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