Rain than another cooldown

Chances of rain and thunder which should be non-severe continue today and tonight. Starting for the main weekend the weather should dry up and cool off. It can be quite cool for Late August and into Early September which could mean that my warm September prediction can be in danger.

There is a little bit of uncertainty on how cold it will get but if more aggressive predictions come true than record lows can be broken or threaten. It will be a cool down probably even cooler than the last one with temps in the low and mid 70's on Sunday and Monday and lows from 49-55. It should gradually warm up to at least the low to mid 80's as the week goes on.

Tied Record Low

A record low was tied at Paducah. In which it reached 54 this morning.

Lows in the upper 50's are foretasted for west ky tomorrow but no records are threatened.

Touch of Fall

Like Late July highs only in the 70's today and tomorrow with lows in the 50's.

Still kind of unusual but unlike July which has a higher sun angle 70's in August isn't as rare and unlike July this won't be record breaking, but it is a sign that fall is on it's way sooner than probably many people want it to be.

locally heavy rain tonight/ tommorow.

With the reminisce of Claudette some locally heavy rain can be expected but widespread severe wx or flooding isn't expected at this time.

Aug 11th

It is almost Fall Time

Besides some of the misspellings on my picture it is that time of year. The time where schools and colleges start and summer depending on your attitude ends and the cooler seasons (Fall and Winter) begin. It is too early to talk about winter time, but we will get ready for that a step towards winter.

Here is a fall overlook and my predictions. These outlooks aren't 100% as we found out with my winter predictions last year, but some analogs, El Nino, and how the models and the pattern are going in the summer influence how I think fall could go, but we all know the good lord above doesn't follow my predictions and gives us some surprises.

Fall is defined by Sept-Nov. Meteorological Fall starts on September 1st, and Astrological Fall and the most familiar and official fall date is around Sept 21st-23rd during the Fall Equinox (where day/night hours are even) every year.

Lets start the outlook.

SEPTEMBER: Several hundred miles to our west away from those great troughs of relief lays one small area from South/West Oklahoma down into Central, Southern, and Eastern Texas that is has had a summer from Dante's Inferno. This was due to the ridge that this weekend we are having a small taste of before it moves back to the west. Eventually unless somethings happens to lock this pattern and that ridge over Texas which can't be ruled out this ridge will be in West Kentucky. During later this month and into September, with this ridge in place we might see some of the hottest temperatures that at least could be as potent as the late June Heat wave that we forgot about after having the 2nd-4th coolest July on record if not even higher. This ridge should keep September warm and probably dry to which would be relief for our wet summer, but I am only predicting slightly below average precip since September usually is a decently dry month, and there is potential for some type of peak in tropical activity that could keep us wet so precipitation is very unknown. Overall I expect departures (+2.5-3.5) like the last two years where a ridge was in effect for at least part of the month.

OCTOBER: I don't think with the El Nino and the fact that ridges in the fall don't tend to last as long as in the summer that we will have to deal with this like Texas has. In matter of fact this ridge may move back to the plains and TX and even maybe the West Coast or move eastward and form another ridge towards the west coast. This at least for part of the month should put down a trough along with cold front passages and some arctic air. With this average precipitation should occur and a cooler pattern if any subtropical pattern can set up along with this a severe wx event may or may not occur. Also the freeze should be at least average which average freeze ranges from October 21st in NW KY and October 25th in SW KY, and I think we should be average or slightly earlier than average with the occasional cold front crossings.

NOVEMBER: This is one of my favorite weather months of the year. This late fall month often spells some interesting systems to at least track that make the transition from fall into winter. Last November wasn't that eventful, but at least this one could be. Being this is the farthest month from our outlook it is hard to predict for. With El Nino being in bloom by this month the subtropical jet should at least start to set up and as long as we don't have record setting cold fronts like last time in Late October than the gulf should have enough unstable moisture to mix with maybe not a very active but at least present Arctic/North Stream. So several storms could from esp. along any Pacific Cold Front and esp. if there is enough Arctic for an Arctic Cold Front than interesting tracking times at least will be had. The NAO may try to go negative during November which may make this game of predicting the weather even funner if that can happen. This month may have forecasters pulling out their hair anything from severe weather to measurable snow to nothing actually happening, but a lot of model teases can all happen.


That is the fall outlook lets hope it does better, and hope we have a great, safe, and blessed Fall 2009

Damage Survey for Christian County KY

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
422 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2009

...DAMAGE SURVEY RESULTS FOR CHRISTIAN COUNTY KENTUCKY...

THE FOLLOWING IS THE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR A DOWNBURST WITH EMBEDDED
TORNADOES THAT OCCURRED JUST NORTH OF HOPKINSVILLE KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AUGUST 4TH, 2009.

* EVENT DATE - TUESDAY AUGUST 4 2009

* EVENT TIME - APPROX. 655 PM CDT

* EVENT TYPE - DOWNBURST WITH EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES

* EVENT LOCATION - 2.7 MILES NORTH OF HOPKINSVILLE TO JUST EAST OF
EXIT 12 ON THE PENNYRILE PARKWAY.

* PEAK WIND - 80 MPH WITH 2 EMBEDDED EF0 TORNADOES

* AVERAGE PATH WIDTH - UNKNOWN

* PATH LENGTH - 1.5 MILES

* INJURIES - 1 INJURY. STORM SPOTTER STRUCK BY FLYING PIECE OF WOOD
WHICH RESULTED IN A BADLY BRUISED SHOULDER

* FATALITIES - NONE

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE - EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES OCCURRED ALONG
DOWNBURST PATH. FIRST BRIEF TOUCHDOWN...EYEWITNESSED BY A
TRAINED SKYWARN SPOTTER...BEGAN AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 41
AND THE BYPASS (1682) AND TRAVELED JUST NORTH OF THE BYPASS FOR
ABOUT ONE HALF MILE. DAMAGE INCLUDED 2 FIBERGLASS LIGHT POLES
SNAPPED AT BASE...SEVERAL TREES SNAPPED AND LARGE LIMBS BROKEN.
ADDITIONAL BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE PENNYRILE
PARKWAY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BYPASS (1682). DAMAGE INCLUDED
A ROOF BEING TORN OFF OF A METAL STORAGE BUILDING WHICH WAS
BLOWN NORTH BACK ACROSS THE HIGHWAY.

SURVEYOR...WIELGOS

The morning sun rises

Did I just underestimated the confidence level map again yesterday I think I did.

We got lucky on the flooding as the storms picked up southward motion and only caused minor flash flooding across Western Kentucky. That is a great relief.

There are several wind damage areas some could be surveyed.

Including Ballard, McCracken, Christian, and Caldwell counties is where the locallized pockets of wind damage occurred. It will be interesting to see if a survey will come out and see if it was wind damage, how high the winds were, or even if there were brief tornado touchdowns within the wind damage.

Also the kids in Christian County due to the storm damage missed school on the first day. So at least for them summer extended one day.

Flooding is reported in Paducah. Heavy rain and flash floooding potential will continue overnight. While the cleanup from some of the damage from the derecho will occur tommrow. There will be scatted t-storms around to dodge around.

More updates on damage tomorrow morning.

Turn Around and Don't Drown

Update on storms

Several reports of wind damage are being reported across West KY. Paducah has a mobile home roof ripped off. Stop lights are out limbs down and funnel cloud sightings occurred in Hopkinsville. Princeton has some structure damage and so does parts of Ballard County.

Measurements of 65 to 70MPH were also reported as the MCS/Derecho moved though.

I may be wrong when I said it was over.

More storms just are firing in SE MO into West KY that could be strong to severe and also a nasty flooding threat may set up due to all the heavy rain and the slow moving NW to SE moving band of storms moving into West Kentucky from Southeast Missouri.

65MPH wind were reported with these storms

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KYC035-047-157-221-050030-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0260.090804T2338Z-090805T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 SOUTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
 CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT.

* AT 633 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A
 LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CADIZ TO LAND BETWEEN
 THE LAKES AREA TO 12 MILES NORTH OF MURRAY... MOVING
 SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 65 MPH WERE REPORTED IN PRINCETON KENTUCKY
 WITH THIS STORM. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND
 STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
 CANTON...
 CADIZ...
 LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...
 ENERGY...
 MURRAY...
 HOPKINSVILLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR KENTUCKY LAKE OR LAKE BARKLEY...GET OUT OF THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW. DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8835 3679 8839 3687 8802 3706 8758
     3682 8734 3666 8763 3668 8806 3649 8804
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 345DEG 39KT 3697 8765 3679 8802
         3677 8832

$$

a little something of an update

AN intense lightning containing MCS is moving across West KY The most severe part of this system is located from Cairo IL and Clay KY and moving SE at about 30 to 40MPH on average.

The strongest storms will contain up to half dollar sized hail and damaging winds up to 75MPH.

In about an hour and a half this line should clear Western Kentucky and the threat should end.

more t-storm warnings

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KYC033-047-055-107-143-221-050000-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0258.090804T2308Z-090805T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
608 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 SOUTHWESTERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...
 NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
 CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 SOUTHEASTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 NORTHEASTERN TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT.

* AT 605 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
 DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8
 MILES WEST OF CRESWELL...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF MARION....AND MOVING
 SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
 FARMERSVILLE...
 PRINCETON...
 COBB...
 CADIZ...
 EDDYVILLE...
 DAWSON SPRINGS...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE BARKLEY...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS
OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DON`T BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM!

&&

LAT...LON 3710 8743 3683 8786 3710 8821 3735 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 311DEG 29KT 3722 8805

$$

More t-storm warnings

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KYC033-055-139-143-042315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0255.090804T2235Z-090804T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
535 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 NORTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 NORTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 532 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...
 AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
 11 MILES NORTH OF BURNA...OR 18 MILES WEST OF MARION....AND MOVING
 SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
 BURNA...
 SALEM...
 MARION...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 8782 3700 8810 3728 8846 3748 8810
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 309DEG 20KT 3740 8839

$$

MCS coming to West KY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC127-151-KYC007-139-145-042315-
/O.NEW.KPAH.SV.W.0254.090804T2229Z-090804T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
529 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
 MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
 SOUTHERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
 NORTHEASTERN BALLARD COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
 MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT.

* AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
 EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF
 METROPOLIS...OR NEAR VIENNA....AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
 WEST PADUCAH...
 METROPOLIS...
 PADUCAH...
 BROOKPORT...
 LOVELACEVILLE...
 LONE OAK...
 LEDBETTER...
 LA CENTER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8824 3695 8887 3720 8904 3733 8853
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 328DEG 41KT 3732 8891

$$

stormy update

After a line of severe thunderstorms moves out of Muhlenberg and Todd Counties. More thunderstorms should form in SE Missouri and move along a boundary from Bardwell Kentucky to Greenville Kentucky.

T-storm watch 658 for the restof West KY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 658 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC007-033-035-039-047-055-075-083-105-107-139-143-145-157-177-
219-221-225-233-050300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0658.090804T2010Z-090805T0300Z/

KY
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BALLARD              CALDWELL            CALLOWAY
CARLISLE             CHRISTIAN           CRITTENDEN
FULTON               GRAVES              HICKMAN
HOPKINS              LIVINGSTON          LYON
MARSHALL             MCCRACKEN           MUHLENBERG
TODD                 TRIGG               UNION
WEBSTER
$$

T-storm Watch for parts of NW KY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2009

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 657 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KYC001-003-005-009-013-017-021-027-029-031-045-049-051-053-057-
059-061-065-067-073-079-085-087-091-093-097-099-101-109-113-121-
123-125-129-137-141-147-149-151-155-163-167-169-171-173-177-179-
181-183-189-197-199-203-207-209-211-213-215-217-227-229-231-235-
239-050000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0657.090804T1720Z-090805T0000Z/

KY
.    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ALLEN               ANDERSON
BARREN               BELL                BOURBON
BOYLE                BRECKINRIDGE        BULLITT
BUTLER               CASEY               CLARK
CLAY                 CLINTON             CUMBERLAND
DAVIESS              EDMONSON            ESTILL
FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            GARRARD
GRAYSON              GREEN               HANCOCK
HARDIN               HARRISON            HART
HENDERSON            JACKSON             JESSAMINE
KNOX                 LARUE               LAUREL
LEE                  LINCOLN             LOGAN
MADISON              MARION              MCCREARY
MCLEAN               MEADE               MERCER
METCALFE             MONROE              MONTGOMERY
MUHLENBERG           NELSON              NICHOLAS
OHIO                 OWSLEY              POWELL
PULASKI              ROCKCASTLE          RUSSELL
SCOTT                SHELBY              SIMPSON
SPENCER              TAYLOR              WARREN
WASHINGTON           WAYNE               WHITLEY
WOODFORD
$$


ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK...JKL...

Story and Hot and Humid this Week

There is a slight risk of severe weather for today and tomorrow across West KY with damaging winds and large hail possible. Isolated strong storms are also possible come Thursday.

After the storm chances the big story is heat and humidity and boy does it come back as temps soar into the mid and upper 90's along with humidity some heat advisory days may be possible come this weekend into next week. Also isolated thunderstorms are possible this weekend due to the moisture mass in and around the edge of the ridge.


Also later this week I will get everyone ready for fall as we look at the fall predictions coming up.

August 4th threat Assessment

July was cool and wet

July was the 2nd coolest in Paducah and Evansville and 4th in Nashville. It was also in the top 10 wettest in Paducah and Evansville.

Several record low highs and even record lows were broken in Mid July