Winter Overview: Warning- Extreme Winter Weather Addict Present

Ok it is that time of year. No not talking about the dead of August or summertime. Talking about the time all the winter weather lovers get impatient and start throwing out their outlooks.

While I won't go into a final outlook or forecast of winter some things are pointing to a winter that will be well "interesting"

My few thoughts- (Not what 100% happen but just my thoughts mostly based on climatology)

* Climate wise when you experience a Strong La Nina even though the ENSO is neutral the effects of La Nina can still be in effect. PDO which is Pacific Oscillation being cooler could suggest la nina possibly. I wouldn't want to call this winter an El Nino I could be wrong but I don;t see us going El Nino. Right now I'm leaning towards neutral or Weak to MDT la Nina event. It won't be as strong as last or leading la nina of last winter. Although at times this winter I feel well have some slimarties to last winter and be pretty active in several weather events it shouldn't be
nearly as intense as 2007-2008 or 1998-99.

* The increase of Arctic Air in the Middle of Summer, and the fact that several areas in Alaska had record cold. Top 10 coolest in Anchorage Alaska last July. We already have Arctic Air gathering in the Arctic and should continue to do so. This could, along with long term models (although not always accurate) signal negative NAO and a Negative AO. This means more Arctic/polar outbreaks and the potential for Nor' Easters and App. Runner systems that could produce winter storms.

* Also since the decrease in Sunspots should play a role in a cooler winter. Even in last years strong la nina setting we had an average temp winter when we were expected to be above average. More studies are being done to see how lack of sunspots effects our winter weather and our global temperature.

- Also maybe we can turn the tide this winter and last winter to maybe a pattern that provides more cold and snow instead of warm winters. I think if this winter is colder or warmer it will have a lot of effect on the Global Warming debate going on to.

With those points to think about it might be wish casting and from view of a snow lover but interesting points on why we might have a snowy winter.

Some possible analogs of this winter I think might have slimar aspects to what we could face this winter. I will def. check these out more
- 1950/51
- 1951/52 ( mentioned on Talkweather) Do more research)
- 1976-77 ( mentioned on Talkweather) This is a good winter it could be a great analog)
- 1989-90
- 2000-01
- 2004-05

These seem to all be decent analogs some way or another. I will update this in September.

Right now I will say. Above Average Snow, Average Temps so far this winter for now.

Full Winter Weather Forecast for West KY
COmes out on here
10/21/08
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